Minor Update: Phillies Top 10 Prospects for 2009

note: this article was written prior to any 2009 games being played, you can find all the most recent Phillies’ top prospects articles on our prospects’ page here

With the Phillies giving me absolutely nothing to write about (Mike Koplove? C’mon!), I figured I’d get some discussion going about our future prospects. The World Championship squad was built primarily from players that came up through our system, and the Phillies have no reason to change that strategy now.

The farm system that Pat Gillick and co. inherited was one of the worst in baseball. All of the impact players were already up in the big show, and the decent prospects left behind were few and far between. Since then, they have made a concerted effort to hang on to their top prospects and invest more money in the draft. They have only traded away 2 top prospects in Gillick’s tenure (Gio Gonzalez and Adrian Cardenas), and one of them, Gonzalez, was acquired by Gillick in the Jim Thome trade. Last year, they had a huge draft, with several high round picks and also did something very out of character, giving large bonuses to some lower round draft picks to convince them not to go to college.

At this point, the Phillies’ farm system is middle of the pack; they have a bunch of decent prospects (think Shane Victorino) but no high-end, can’t-miss guys (think Chase Utley). However, it is far better than a couple years ago, and many of their good prospects still have room to develop into that “can’t miss” type of prospect. Below you will find my top 10 prospects in the Phillies system. I have combined together their stats from all levels this year, as well as Fall or Winter ball, if they participated. Their level is where they ended 2008, not necessarily where they will start 2009. Feel free to chime in with who you think should be higher, or who I’ve left out all together.

1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP

Age: 21, AAA, 6′3” 215 lbs
Estimated Phillies Debut: Mid-2009 or 2010

Even though he is only 21, Carrasco has been atop the Phillies’ prospect board for a couple years now. Because of this, I feel he is getting a reputation that he doesn’t quite deserve. He’s not a #1 caliber starter, and he’s not ready for the major leagues. That being said, he is still the top pitching prospect in the organization and a potential #2. Carrasco has a 90-91mph fastball, but the pitch that makes him effective is his change-up. He was average in AA-Reading but was dominant once promoted to AAA-Lehigh, where he went 2-2 with a 1.76 ERA, 46 K’s and 36.2 IP in 6 starts. If he can keep that up next year, I might change my opinion about whether or not he can be a #1. I do believe that the Phillies should absolutely start him in the minors next year, as I think bringing him up too early might have a “Gavin Floyd effect.”

2. Michael Taylor, OF

Age: 23, A-Adv, 6′6” 250 lbs
Estimated Phillies Debut: Mid-2010 or 2011

I might have Taylor higher than most people, but when you look at the numbers, he was clearly the best offensive prospect in the system this year and has the best chance of being an impact bat down the road. At 6′6” 250lbs, Taylor is a huge guy and has all the tools to be a successful player. For a comparison, let’s look at Taylor’s number at age 22 vs. Ryan Howard’s at the same point. Both had 490 ABs, and both were in Single-A.

Pretty impressive when you put them together like that. I’m not going to say that Taylor can be the power hitter or RBI machine that Howard is, but I do think that he can be a 25-30 HR, 100 RBI guy that strikes out less than Burrell and can also get you 35-40 doubles. One more quality year in the minors, and you’ll start hearing a lot more about Taylor.

3. Jason Donald, INF

Age: 24, AA, 6′1” 190 lbs
Estimated Phillies Debut: Mid-2009 or 2010

Donald is another position player to have a breakout year in 2008, and if not for our all-star middle infielders, he would likely be starting for us this season. Donald has seen his stock rise recently as he tore up the Arizona fall league, hitting .407 with an absurd .747 SLG% in 25 games. If you include Donald and Taylor’s fall league numbers with their regular season numbers, Donald actually had a higher OBP% and SLG% than Taylor. His scrappy play and decent power have some comparing him to Dustin Pedroia. While he will probably never be that good, I think he could put up Aaron Rowand-type numbers as the future 3B for the Phillies.

4. Kyle Drabek, RHP

Age: 21, Low A, 6′0” 185 lbs
Estimated Phillies Debut: 2011

There are several prospects below Drabek that have proven themselves more, but no pitching prospect has a higher ceiling than Drabek. Kyle had a horrible start to his Phillies career followed quickly by Tommy John surgery. I suspected we would never hear from him again. But, he returned near the end of 2008 and was nearly unhittable. Drabek pitched in 53 innings in the Minors and Fall League this year and gave up only 25 hits with a 0.77 WHIP. His ERA was higher than it should have been at 2.55 and his strikeout rate was a little low (35 K’s), but he arguably has the best “stuff” in the system. 2009 will be a huge year for Drabek, and he has the best chance of either shooting to #1 or falling off this list completely.

5. Lou Marson, C

Age: 22, AA, 6′1” 200 lbs
Estimated Phillies Debut: 2009

This is definitely lower than most people have Marson, who was just named the 43rd best prospect in all of baseball by MLB.com. So don’t get me wrong, I love Lou Marson. A defensive catcher with a .430 OBP, how could you not? The reason I have him ranked lower is that while I think he will be an above-average catcher and maybe even make an all-star game or two, I believe his ceiling is not as high as the other players above him. While Marson has a fantastic OBP, he is really just a singles hitter, as evidenced by only 29 extra base hits this season. However, his defense and pitcher management will likely make him the type of player that has value that won’t show up in a box score, as evidenced by the Phillies’ refusal to part ways with him.

6. J.A. Happ, LHP

Age: 26, MLB, 6′6” 200 lbs
Estimated Phillies Debut: N/A

Happ is still considered a prospect, as he did not log enough time in the majors this year to disqualify himself. In the minors, Happ was a strikeout machine (151 K’s in 135 IP), which projects well to the Majors. I think Happ can be a solid middle-to-end of the rotation starter and was surprised by the quality of his fastball last season. If he proves he can throw a good changeup over an entire season, he could be a poor man’s Cole Hamels. I am completely against any kind of spring training “competition” for the 5th starter’s position, and I believe that, at 26, we need to find out what we have in Happ this year.

7. Dominic Brown, OF

Age: 21, A, 6′5” 204 lbs
Estimated Phillies Debut: 2011

Brown is an interesting prospect. He all the tools, and one highly respected evaluator, Baseball America’s Jim Callis, has him as the best prospect in our entire system. However, he needs to show some improvement on the field to move up this list. Brown was solid, but not spectacular, this season hitting .291 with a .382 OBP and .417 SLG %. But like Donald, he tore apart the Winter League (ranked the 4th best prospect in the Hawaii Winter League by Baseball America, ahead of Drabek and Taylor). Brown is a solid fielder with a plus arm, and his ceiling might be similar to Shane Victorino, but with more power and less speed. After Brown, there is a drop-off in the quality of prospects, but he is the last of 7 prospects that have a very good shot of being regulars for the Phillies, or someone else, before their career is over.

8. Mike Stutes, RHP

Age: 22, A, 6′1” 185 lbs
Estimated Phillies Debut: 2011

Stutes was drafted by the Phillies in the 11th round of the 2008 and surprisingly was the best performer of all of the draft picks. He had arguably the best first year for a Phillies pitcher since Cole Hamels struck out 147 batters in 103 IP at age 19 in Single-A. Stutes has nowhere near the stuff of Hamels, but his stats were impressive nonetheless:

20 hits and 53 K’s in 42.2 IP is pretty ridiculous no matter how you cut it. It will be interesting to see, since Stutes was a college pitcher and is already 22, whether or not the Phillies will challenge him by sending him straight to Reading, or whether or not they make him prove himself again in Lakewood. It’s possible that these numbers are just a quick start, but hopefully Stutes has found something that he was missing in college.

9. Jason Knapp, RHP

Age: 18, Rookie Lg., 6′5” 215 lbs
Estimated Phillies Debut: 2013

These last 2 spots could have gone to anyone, and based on performance, RHP Drew Naylor should probably be here. But since we have already gone past the first tier of prospects, I’m going to go with the 2 prospects with the highest ceilings. Knapp was the Phillies’ 2nd round pick this season and is a high school pitcher with an incredible arm. Knapp can throw 95+ and has room to fill out his frame and add more velocity. The reason he wasn’t picked higher in the draft is that he has poor mechanics that need to be fixed. If the Phillies can do that, he’ll be a high-end pitching prospect. If not, he’ll likely flame out quickly. He had a good start in the Rookie League, striking out 38 with a 2.61 ERA in 31 innings.

10. Zach Collier, OF

Age: 18, Rookie Lg., 6′2” 185 lbs
Estimated Phillies Debut: 2013

Collier was the Phillies’ supplemental pick between the first and second rounds of the draft. He is another example of a high-risk, high-reward draft pick as he is a phenomenal athlete who is not yet a phenomenal baseball player. With his athletic ability, the sky is the limit for Collier. His best attribute is his bat, and some have compared him to a Garrett Anderson-type hitter. Obviously, at 18, Collier has a lot of development to go through, and like Drabek and Knapp, he could fly up the charts, or fall off completely.

Just Missed The Cut: RHP Drew Naylor, RHP Vance Worley, LHP Joe Savery, C Travis D’Arnaud, LHP Antonio Bastardo

Keep up-to-date at our Phillies top prospects page.

December 2, 2008