The MLB Draft is tonight at 7pm, and while the lead-up to the draft doesn’t compare to the NBA or NFL, the importance is just as great.
A “first-rounder” in the MLB draft doesn’t mean the same thing that it does in other drafts. You really have to look at the bonus money a player receives to see who the most important picks in the draft were. For instance, last year Brody Colvin, the team’s 7th round pick, received the most bonus money of any Phillies’ pick ($900K). He dropped to the 7th round because he was committed to LSU and considered a “tough sign” but the Phils convinced him to back-out of it.
I mention this because when I do this little exercise below, it’s important to keep in mind that the 1st rounder doesn’t mean the same as other sports. Well over 50% of the 1st rounders in baseball will fail, there is equal impact by the later rounds of the draft and the following exercise could be done for any team and shouldn’t be considered an indictment of the Phillies drafting abilities (though their last 2 first rounders have kind of sucked…).
So what I’m going to do is show the Phillies 1st pick going back to the Pat Burrell draft (not all their 1st picks were 1st rounders) and then who they should have picked and then a team that picked ahead of them that made an even worse decision that they did. I’m skipping 2009 because it’s way too early to tell what’s going on there.
Note: On the should have picks, I stayed in the same round that the player was drafted.
2008
Who We Picked: 3B Anthony Hewitt (#24)
The best athlete in the draft, but also the worst hitter, Hewitt has shown some progress in Lakewood this year, but if you call hitting .223 at low-A “progress” then it shows where you started at. The light could still go on, but I’m not holding my breath.
Who We Should Have Picked: RHP Casey Kelly, Red Sox (#30)
He was a tough sign, so who knows if we could have landed him, but Kelly is one of the top prospects in baseball now. He’s struggling a bit a AA, but he has high-level stuff and will at the very least be a good late-inning reliever.
At Least We Didn’t Pick: SS Tim Beckham, Rays (#1)
It’s rare that the Rays screw up a pick, so the fact that they might have screwed up the 1st overall pick is surprising. While Beckham struggles in High-A (hitting .210) several players from this draft have already graduated to the majors with bright futures, including Brian Matusz, Justin Smoak, Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham and Ike Davis.
2007
Who We Picked: LHP Joe Savery (#19)
We picked Savery assuming he would be able to come all the way back from arm surgery. Well, he didn’t. His fastball now tops out around 86-87 mph, and his off-speed stuff just isn’t good enough to make that work. With a horrendous 1.64 WHIP in AAA, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies sent him down to single-A and let him try his hand at hitting, which he was excellent at in college.
Who We Should Have Picked: RHP Rick Porcello, Tigers (#27)
Not a whole lot of talent went after Savery in the 1st round, but Porcello quickly became one of the top prospects in baseball. At only 21 he already has 232 major league innings under his belt at a 4.30 ERA. If drafted by the Phillies, he likely would have been left in the minors a bit longer.
At Least We Didn’t Pick: 1B Beau Mills, Indians (#13)
While Mills can’t hit a lick in AA (.206 avg.), Indians fans will always be left wondering what was wrong with the guy the went right after Mills, Jason Heyward.
2006
Who We Picked: RHP Kyle Drabek (#18)
Drabek was another high-rish, high-reward pick by the Phillies, but this time we got the reward. Drabek was the centerpiece of the Roy Halladay deal, and should be a decent MLB starter one day.
Who We Should Have Picked: N/A
Drabek was the best player picked from 18 on in the 1st round. Ian Kennedy (#21) and Daniel Bard (#28) are the only 2 that have made the majors.
At Least We Didn’t Pick: 1B Billy Rowell, Orioles (#9)
That Tim Lincecum (picked #10) has a funny delivery, he’ll never make it in this league…
2005
Who We Picked: 3B Mike Costanzo (#65, 2nd round)
Constanzo was traded in the Brad Lidge deal, and then again the Orioles, who recently released him. He was picked up by the Reds and is now a 26-year old in AA ball. He’s hitting the ball decent, but will probably never see the show.
Who We Should Have Picked: RHP Kevin Slowey (#73)
Slowey has been a solid middle rotation guy for the Twins, with a 4.30 ERA in 381 IP since 2007.
At Least We Didn’t Pick: C Jeff Clement, Mariners (#3)
Clement is now a bench player for the Pirates. The next 4 players picked? Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero and Troy Tulowitzki.
2004
Who We Picked: OF Greg Golson (#21)
Golson was the 1st iteration of Anthony Hewitt – but the Phillies clearly didn’t learn from his failures. Golson will likely spend the rest of his days in AAA or maybe come up as a pinch-runner in September. He is currently playing for the Yankees AAA affiliate and sporting a .667 OPS.
Who We Should Have Picked: RHP Phil Hughes, Yankees (#23)
Hughes is enjoying his breakout season for the Yankees this year, going 7-1 with a 2.54 ERA.
At Least We Didn’t Pick: SS Matt Bush, Padres (#1)
A stupid pick at the time (they took him because they didn’t want to pay Justin Verlander) and it only got worse. He has about as many career HR’s (3) as he does off-the-field incidents. He has been traded and released several times and will likely be just the 3rd first overall pick to never make the majors.
2003
Who We Picked: 3B Tim Moss (#85, 3rd round)
Moss wasn’t long for the minors, and was out of baseball by 2006. He showed some promise in Clearwater in 2005 (17 HR, .811 OPS) but decided baseball wasn’t the thing for him.
Who We Should Have Picked: RHP Jon Paplebon, Red Sox (#114, 4th round)
Had to go down a bit before we found a real major leaguer. It’s not a coincidence that a lot of the guys mentioned as “should have” picks (Kelly, Bard, Paplebon) are Red Sox picks.
At Least We Didn’t Pick: RHP Kyle Sleeth, Tigers (#3)
This was a pretty weak draft, but Sleeth was the highest player taken to not make the majors and he really didn’t come very close, pitching only 92 innings above single-A.
2002
Who We Picked: LHP Cole Hamels (#17)
NLCS MVP, World Series MVP. Though Hamels is a bit of a lightning rod in Philly these days, you really can’t ask for more out of the 17th pick in the draft.
Who We Should Have Picked: N/A
The only player that would even get consideration here would be Matt Cain, who went #25 to the Giants.
At Least We Didn’t Pick: RHP Bryan Bullington, Pirates (#1)
Another indefensible #1 overall pick by a team that didn’t want to pay the bonus money. Passed up Prince Fielder, Zach Greinke and B.J. Upton.
2001
Who We Picked: RHP Gavin Floyd (#4)
Floyd turned out to be a decent pitcher, just not for us. After struggling painfully for the Phillies, he put together 2 very solid years for the White Sox before going in the toliet this season (6.64 ERA).
Who We Should Have Picked: 3B Mark Teixeira, Rangers, (#5)
You could make the argument that drafted Tex would mean no Thome or maybe even Howard in Philly, but you can’t make the argument that anyone else would have been a better pick. Tex already has 250 HR’s and 3 gold gloves.
At Least We Didn’t Pick: RHP Mark Prior, Cubs (#2)
The Twins were criticized for taking hometown boy Joe Mauer over the sure thing in Mark Prior. Anyone think they regret it now?
2000
Who We Picked: 2B Chase Utley (#15)
Potentially HOFer and undoubtedly the best player at his position for the last 5 seasons. Will likely end up as one of the most popular players in Phillies’ history.
Who We Should Have Picked: N/A
That makes 3 N/A’s in the 9 years. That is really impressive in the MLB draft. The only player worth mentioning that went after Utley was Adam Wainwright, who went 29th to the Braves.
At Least We Didn’t Pick: RHP Adam Johnson, Twins (#2)
Didn’t make it past 27 innings pitched in the minor leagues. Ouch.
1999
Who We Picked: RHP Brett Myers (#12)
Though he came in with more hype than he should have, you can’t really complain about Myers contributions to the Phillies. Over 1,100 innings, a stint as a quality closer and the #2 starter on the World Champions squad.
Who We Should Have Picked: N/A
Again they probably made the right choice here. The only other player picked in the 1st round worth mentioning was Alex Rios, who went #19 to the Jays.
At Least We Didn’t Pick: SS Corey Myers, D-Backs (#4)
Out of baseball by 2007 before ever seeing the majors.
1998
Who We Picked: 3B Pat Burrell (#1)
They made the right pick, Burrell was pretty much unanimous as the top pick after being one of the best players in college baseball history. He had a good career with the Phillies, with some great moments and some really bad ones. He never quite reached his potential, but still finished his Phils stint 3rd on the Phils all-time HR list at 251.
Who We Should Have Picked: LHP C.C. Sabathia, Indians (#20)
Can’t say Sabathia was in the discussion for the top pick, but in retrospect, he probably should have been.
At Least We Didn’t Pick: RHP Jeff Austin, Royals (#4)
65 major league innings at a 6.75 ERA.
Conclusions
Considering how much of a crapshoot the MLB draft is, the Phillies did very well with their first rounders from 1998-2002. Since then, Kyle Drabek has been the only top-level prospect picked in the first round by the Phillies and much of their success has come with picks in the later rounds. After 2 whiffs in the last 2 drafts with their 1st rounder (they did not have a 1st round pick in 2009), it would be nice to see them finally get a hit here. They pick #27 overall.
Check out all our articles on Phillies’ prospects at our Prospect Page
I had no idea who Tim Moss was so I did a little research on him. Turns out the year before we released him he struck out nearly 40% of the time at AA, even his power numbers couldn’t compensate for that…
In general, great article Pete. Always interesting to read about Pro Sports Forgotten Draft (baseball)
great post Pete. I can’t believe the Rays whiffed on Beckham like that. like you said the Rays are usually spot on with their draft picks. a local guy from south jersey to watch is Mike Trout. I think hes currently batting like .362 in class A ball. he was drafted 24th overall by the angles last year. He is on baseball America’s hot young prospects(along with domonic brown).
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=CF&sid=t492&t=p_pbp&pid=545361
Actually hes batting .366 with 6 hr, 31 rbi, and 30 sb…. the kids a monster .
he is from millville highschool in South Jersey. my school, St. Augstine Prep played them last year, the kids just got straight god given abilities. if the phillies could away to acquire him that would be amazing (not likely). but yeah great post again Pete.
If the Phillies are serious about always picking the best player on the board they’ll take 3B Zack Cox (who Keith Law says is the “best pure college hitter in the draft” and most mocks had the Mets getting him at 7) out of Arkansas or RHP Anthony Ranaudo out of LSU who was a projected top 3 pick at the start of the season before getting hurt but he pitched well enough in the SEC Tournament to prove he was back from injury…if they don’t take one of these guys they are letting price tag affect their philosophy of taking the best available player
former Phillie draft pick who was projected to be gone by now, pitcher Brandon Workman out of Texas is still available
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/sports/20100606_Phils_made_money_move_that_may_cost_them.html
With all of this talent still on the board it will be strictly a money move if they take Jesse Biddle, the Germantown pitcher
Jurnee16 -
There goes Cox. My guess is that the Phillies will take Biddle as well.
Stetson Allie would also seem to be a good pick from what I’ve read.
Like you, I would prefer Ranaudo at this point.
But after the Kelly Dugan pick last year, I’d really take anyone I’ve heard of…
Yeah I’m afraid they’ll avoid Ranaudo for money reasons but he has #1 starter potential and you can’t say that about anyone else available….
Asher Wojciechowski, RHP out of the Citadel is another pitcher who was projected to go much earlier who they could still get…I hope they pick one of these value guys i’ll be pissed if they don’t….
not a bad pick, but like you said Jurnee, it wasn’t the best pick
long draft though – we’ll see what they really do tomorrow. sometimes they don’t overslot in the 1st because they are going to in later rounds.
Biddle it is…Workman, Wojciechowski, and Ranaudo were all rated much higher…and are all much closer to the majors…so much for the “best player available” philosophy…..
I thought overslotting was when you reach for someone like they just did (Law had him as the 90th best player available)…is my draft terminology off?
I BELIEVE (and I could be wrong) that overslot means that you pay OVER what the slotted price for the player is.
Biddle will sign for slot, and probably sign quickly. So that means the Phillies have more money to play with in the later rounds. Had they taken someone who would want overslot at this point, it would limit what they could do later.
Biddle can hit 93mph as a lefty in HS with some room to grow. At least it wasn’t Anthony Hewitt.
Here is ESPN insider’s scouting report on Biddle
Biddle has been on everyone’s radar since the Area Code Games, but a strong commitment to Oregon and trouble throwing strikes kept him down pref lists until early May, when his control started to improve and he began dominating the weak competition he’s been facing.
Biddle is 6’3″ with an immature body, one that needs toning rather than filling out, but can already touch 93 and work with an average fastball. He gets good downhill plane on the pitch, taking advantage of his height. His curveball is slow and loopy but has depth and he at least has the laxity in his wrist to throw a good one. Biddle’s arm is quick and he generates a lot of torque with his hips as he plants his front foot.
His upside is probably that of a #2 starter, but even for that he’ll need to develop a third pitch and show that his improved control is for real.
That definition makes sense…I agree it was a better pick than Hewitt but I can’t help but have the feeling you might be writing another article like this in 5 years and Biddle will be in the “Who we picked” category and Ranaudo and Wojciechowski will be in the “Who we should’ve picked category” and off to promising starts in their major league careers….
Biddle has good measurables, 6’6, 220. I dont know a whole lot about him, but I’m sure Pete does. I’ve just red per Joe Santolouquito that his fastball reaches 96mph but is usually around 91-93, and has a decent slider. i dont really know what to expect, how is he?
MLB.com’s scouting report:
Scouting Report
Fastball: Biddle runs his fastball up to 92 mph.
Fastball movement: His fastball is pretty straight. His two-seamer has some arm-side run.
Curve: It’s a soft curve, thrown 69-72 mph, without much bite. It’s his third pitch, but you can project it to be better in the future
Changeup: He’s got a very good feel for his changeup, throwing it 77-78 mph and locating it down in the strike zone well. It will be a plus pitch.
Control: His command is below-average right now, thanks to some crudeness with his delivery. There’s reason to think that it can improve with instruction.
Poise: He’s got solid presence on the mound.
Physical Description: Biddle is close to physically mature, with a thick lower half, high waist and big hands.
Medical Update: Healthy.
Strengths: Two above-average to plus pitches in the future with his fastball and changeup. Pretty good projectability.
Weaknesses: Most of his skills are fairly raw. Command and delivery issues need to be addressed.
Summary: Projectable, high school left-handers aren’t always easy to find, and Biddle, while a bit raw, might be an interesting one for teams to consider. He’s got the size (6-foot-6) and strength you like to see, and he’s throwing his fastball up to 92 mph, with room for growth in that area. He combines that with an outstanding changeup, though his breaking ball is behind the other two offerings. His command and issues with his delivery might keep him from being one of the elite prep arms in the class, but a team that’s willing to work with him and be patient could be very handsomely rewarded should they select him during the Draft.
Yeah I had read that scouting report…he just seems like too much of a project at 27 considering the several more polished talents that were still on the board….
I was talking about the Scout’s Inc report, the MLB.com one is more promising
The team with the deepest pockets (the Yankees) just reached even more than us and took a HS SS outside of Law’s top 100…I bet the Red Sox take one of those college arms with their upcoming supplemental pick….
some of these guys must just be demanding too much and the teams are pretty much saying they aren’t worth it.
apparently the Yankees don’t have a lot to spend (seriously)
Ranaudo went to the Red Sox, I don’t know much about this kid, it was said he was the #1 pitcher pre-season. I’m not suprised the Red Sox took a hard sign Scott Boras player, watch he’ll eventually be an all-star now….
How did the Red Sox get Type A compensation for letting Billy Wagner go to the Braves in free agency when he threw only 13 innings last season?…did they offer him arbitration? They also have a supplemental 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder for letting Jason Bay walk…they are going to own this draft…..
I hate Keith Law…please no more comments involving his list. I’m not serious about the no more comments part but I really don’t respect his opinion a whole lot. Don’t judge the Phils or anyone else’s draft on his list.
haha -
Law is a total ass, I guess that’s his thing. He almost always disagrees with the Phillies philosophy.
He is a very harsh critic, and I respect his opinion, but take it with a grain of salt.
I’ll give you a fuzzy explanation that’s at least on the right track. Wagner was released by the Mets and was a free agent. He wanted to be a free agent again and pursue a closing role. So the Red Sox conceded the point to get bullpen help and lost a draft pick.
Law is most definitely an ass but he knows his stuff…it is frustrating to read him sometimes because it seems like he looks at every player with a very pessimistic disposition…he killed the Phillies on the Howard deal but he acknowledges that picking high-ceiling talent is a strategy a lot of teams use and gave them some credit in a his chat today saying:
“They take high-ceiling high school players and have had some pretty notable successes with that approach, like Cosart, Brown, and maybe now Singleton.”
While he might not be a likable guy his analysis is easily accessible, he knows the business, and is a notable scout so that is why I kept referencing him.
KB, the Red Sox were rewarded Type A Free Agent compensation (the 39th pick in the draft, used to get Ranaudo) for losing Wagner in free agency to the Braves. I don’t understand why Wagner was worth that high of a pick when pitching just 13.2 innings in 2009.
Jurnee-
Because the system is stupid!
The MLB draft is like the BCS, no one knows how it came to be but it just is. How Billy Wagner is worth a 1st rd compensatory pick is beyond me. On the bright side the MLB draft is surprisingly mildly entertaining, although that former GM guy( I forget his name) is kind of annoying, i enjoyed it.( well as much as someone can enjoy something after seeing Hamels pitch a good game and get no run support) hopefully the MLB draft will continue to grow because its surprisingly watchable.
btw, is it me or do the analysts make every player taken after the top 20 out to be a steal, all i heard from Reynolds and the GM was how much of a steal this High school SS was. I mean dude, hes an athletic HS SS, hes probable Anthony Hewitt 2.0. ( some kid the mariners took) but yeah the analysts do a little too much slurping for a baseball draft.
Jurnee16, it’s cool, feel free to reference Law and ignore me. He could be the best talent evaluator in the world and I would still hate him. He is just an ass to the nth degree and I refuse to give his espn page anymore hits.
On the game tonight…I consider myself a pretty patient philly sports fan but this offensive funk is really trying on my fandom. Every little missed opportunity gets magnified while I watch a game. Whether its not moving a player over, striking out by swinging at a fb down the middle, or lack of hits with risp. I can’t imagine how much it weighs on the players if it is weighing on me as just a fan. However, this is the first year I invested in season tix for the sole purpose of getting playoff tickets so I feel the losses a little more now that I’m financially invested as well as emotionally. I feel lucky the game I attended during this series was the Moyer CG on Friday. I also wanted to give a shout out for Cole for another good performance. Looks like he’s officially back. His fb had juice and he kept it down. His curve even looked respectable. Here’s to hoping the offensive funk ends sooner rather than later.
I can’t imagine how much it weighs on the players if it is weighing on me as just a fan.>>
Take it a step further, too. I wonder what the front office thinks about all this.
You wonder if moves, maybe even major might coincide with the trade deadline.
Chemistry has changed. ’10 team includes 9 new faces/personalities added to 25 man roster … 11 if you count the Ryan Howard 125 mil
makeover and Werth’s biblical beard & holey swing in aim for that
tantalizing free agent windfall. Players are human. There are
relational and motivational ramifications in clubhouse to money plays and gets (and ‘not gets’). Cohesion lacking. Iron poor competitive blood. Rollins out; return should help. But team mojo is in descent. Charlie’s ultimate answer: “keep hacking.” Problem is, pitching staff has been pretty solid of late, has overachieved a bit; when/if hitters get back on track, a pitching slump is feasible. Next 12 – Marlins, Red Sox, Yankees, Twins – rough road/serious test of mettle.
Ben Francisco has to be wondering how many more times he will not get a start against a left-handed pitcher.
I know Francisco would not be the cure for our extended scoring drought. I also know that a while back Charlie said that he doesn’t like to play too many bench guys at the same time. Still, Charlie knows he’s got to play these guys if he is to have any hope of getting something out of them as the season goes along.
When guys are hot Charlie doesn’t want to take them out and when guys are struggling he wants to keep them in so they can work their way out of it. Doesn’t leave much of an opportunity, does it?
How much worse could the offense possibly have been if Francisco played instead of Ibanez (or, dare I say, if Castro played instead of Utley——because the guy really looks like he could use a break)?
I know some people who played on Jesse’s team this year and I watched him pretty much all year and he has become much better since those scouting reports were updated. He can hit 95 on the gun and his curve has become a very good slider, he is a legit 6’5″ not 6’3″
Also Germantown Friends School came in second in the state
Agree with you, bski. The younger, more agile Francisco deserves a few consecutive starts at this point. Give him Ibanez’s 178 ABs and he too could pop 3 past the petunias, even with his slighter build. And he’s to be trusted more as a left fielder than ram-tough but roving and rickety Raul.
Phlaccid Phive: Castro-Valdez-Dobbs-Francisco-Gload. Composite 323 ABs, 23 R, 13 BB, 61 Ks. Genuine murderer’s row that Ruben created; they murder more opportunities than Bonnie & Clyde. Hesitant Charlie, their accomplice.
thanks for the insider info, Adam
Adam, One scout compared him to Clayton Kershaw who is 22 and has started already 65 ML games (18-16, 3.30, 365 Ks in 349 innings). High projection. Glad they drafted him. Seeing as he’s from Mt. Airy, if he can negotiate Lincoln Drive safely, ML batters shouldn’t ruffle him.
Yeah, jjg, the point-of-emphasis-two-year-contract-upgraded bench has been brutal and all signs point to us not getting much at all from it the rest of the way.
As we said, Francisco can’t get a start against a left-hander no matter how much Ibanez struggles.
Dobbs has been awful and most likely will not get enough starts/ABs to get any kind of stroke going as a result of his butchery at 3rd when he did get a couple starts.
Gload, apparently much like Francisco, can’t get a start regardless of how bad Werth is going.
Castro has been pushed aside by Valdez.
The whole thing is a mess and I know our present situation makes it tough, but Charlie is still stuck in the same negative loop of hardly play bench guys—-not getting much out of bench guys—-rarely play bench guys—-getting nothing out of bench guys and not reaping because he is not sowing.
bski, “not reaping because he is not sowing” – I like that; well put. Anyone who’s been a scrub in any sport knows the difficulty in
succeeding when called upon sporadically to perform immediately. As you say, strong benches require development. Cholly likes to ride his stallions. Right now they’re looking like they’re ready for the glue factory, and the season is but 56 games underway.
Guys doing analysis for the draft on MLB.com thought we got a steal with our 5th rounder, 6’7″ RHP Scott Frazier out of Upland HS in California. Here is teh MLB.com scouting report on him:
Fastball: Frazier threw his fastball 92-93 mph, touching 94-95 early on.
Fastball movement: He throws from a downhill plane, and there’s good arm-side movement with his two-seamer.
Curve: It’s solid-average to below-average, depending on when he gets it out in front.
Changeup: He’s got a good changeup; it’s his second-best pitch.
Control: It’s solid-average at best, but he has a tendency to lose his delivery and release point.
Poise: He has excellent mound presence.
Physical Description: Frazier is big and strong, kind of like a Chris Carpenter type body-wise.
Medical Update: Healthy.
Strengths: Size, strength and chance for a good three-pitch mix.
Weaknesses: He loses command and feel for his breaking stuff when his delivery gets out of whack. At his size, there are a lot of moving parts to contain.
Summary: Frazier had been shooting up Draft boards this spring and moved into one of the higher groups of high school arms. The California right-hander has grown, and his velocity has jumped as high as 95 mph at times. With that, he throws a good changeup, and his curve shows glimpses of being solid as well. At his size, he needs to watch his delivery, which can affect his command. He’s more of a work in progress, but there’s a lot to like here and a team willing to be a little patient should give Frazier a long look in the first couple of rounds in the Draft.
Jurnee16-
Yup – pumped about that pick. But he’s not a sure-fire sign. Hence the reason he dropped to round 5. Currently committed to Pepperdine.
Yeah thats what I was thinking but like you said last night hopefully picking Biddle means they are willing to spend more on their picks today. He sounds a lot like Mike Pelfrey.
I’ m interning this summer in the sports department at a radion station in Columbia, South Carolina that covers primarily covers University of South Carolina and Clemson sports and the guys here said our 13th round pick, John Hinson, 3B out of Clemson, is a good value in the 13th and was projected to go a few rounds higher
According to Baseball America, our 17th round pick, RHP Michael Nesseth out of Nebraska, was hitting 97 mph on his fastball his freshman year, had Tommy John surgery and missed his sophomore year, struggled in 2010, his junior year and was shut down for the season…guys usually show the most improvement from TJ surgery their second year back though….