There are tons of top-50 free agents lists out there. MLBTR is as good as any to look at. This post will take a look at all of them, and who (if any) I think should fit into the Phillies’ plans.
About that Ryan Howard contract…
1. Albert Pujols – I would be surprised if he left St. Louis. They’ve got some more cash to play with after the playoff run
2. Prince Fielder – I think his best fit is Texas, if he wants to win. Cubs are also a possible landing spot, with Epstein maybe making an early splash.
13. David Ortiz – He’s not playing in the NL anyway…
I would probably talk myself into them if it happened, but…
3. Jose Reyes – Too injured, too many bad clubhouse stories, too much money. The Giants make a lot of sense here.
8. Aramis Ramirez – Would certainly be a welcome right-handed bat in the line-up. But he will be 34 next year, and is definitely in decline. Haven’t we learned our lesson with the Ibanez and Polanco deals? On a one or two year deal, I’d listen, but I can’t imagine that’s what he will get.
9. Carlos Beltran – You’d love to think that his resurgence last year was a sign of things to come. Right? I wouldn’t bet on it…
10. Jonathan Paplebon – The “name” closer people will look to if we don’t get Madson. It’s not that I wouldn’t like him on my team, it’s that I don’t think we need to be paying top dollar for a closer. More on this later.
29. David De Jesus – I would prefer one of the other outfielders below, but he could be an interesting bench/4th OF option if he can’t land a starting gig.
42. Rafael Furcal – A possible stop-gap if J-Roll bolts, but I can’t see him staying healthy.
44. Frank Francisco – A solid reliever who might had for cheap, but I’d rather give our young guys a chance.
49. Kerry Wood – A possible cheap closer option, Wood was good last year: 10.1 K/9, 3.35 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, but I don’t know if he could handle a full time closer role.
Enough money is in the rotation already…
4. C.J. Wilson – A bust (compared to salary) waiting to happen in my opinion. Has only been a starter for two years. I bet he winds up with the Nationals.
5. Yu Darvish – Have been hearing about this guy for years. Probably the best Japanese pitching prospect since Nomo. Teams are scared though after the recent disasters. Blue Jays and Rangers are rumored.
6. Edwin Jackson – He’s already been on 6 teams, he’ll be happy to find a home.
12. Mark Buerhle – He has to stay with the White Sox, right?
15. Hiroki Kuroda – Will only play for Dodgers.
46. Joel Pineiro – Would be scrap heap option if we were looking.
Our own guys…
7. Jimmy Rollins – I want Jimmy back. For baseball reasons and sentimental reasons. 4 years $36 million deal seems fair to me for both sides.
14. Ryan Madson – I would love Madson back, but it certainly seems like he will jump for the best deal. I’d offer 3 years, $20 million and then wish him well in Washington.
18. Roy Oswalt – I would want to hear his asking price. I think he has a year or two left of being a solid starter and would see if we could get a discount. Going to the Rangers makes the most sense though.
Now we’re talking…
11. Michael Cuddyer – Here are the pluses on Cuddyer: He can play OF, 1B (with Howard out), 3B (when Polanco gets hurt) and 2B (when Utley gets hurt). He is a right-handed bat with some pop, doesn’t strike out a ton, and he has performed well in his playoff appearances. The minuses are his age (33 on Opening Day) and his defense (below average). He also made $10.5 million last year, so he’d have to take a pay cut.
24. Josh Willingham – Similar to Cuddyer, only without the position flexibility. I don’t know if he could learn first base. Willingham has been remarkably consistent with the bat the last 6 years in terms of OBP/SLG/OPS. His career OPS (.836) is better than Hunter Pence (.828).
26. Grady Sizemore – You want to take a flyer on someone? Take it on Sizemore. I have no clue whatsoever what kind of deal he will be looking for, but considering how good Adrian Beltre and Lance Berkman made out the last 2 years on 1-year “show me” deals, I would absolutely be on board with giving Sizemore, only 29, a 1-year flyer.
35. Clint Barmes – Middle infield back-up that can hit better than Martinez or Valdez.
41. Jamey Carroll – Another middle-infield back-up offensive upgrade while keeping solid D. The big downside to this is how excited Chris Wheeler would get because of how “scrappy” Jamey Carroll is. He competes, you guys.
48. Joe Nathan – Here is my (presumably) cheap closer option. Nathan will be under-valued because of his high ERA last year (4.84). BUT, he had nearly a strikeout per inning (8.7) and a great WHIP (1.16). There were 40 pitchers last year with K/9 and WHIP’s in that range, and the average ERA was 2.62. This tells me that Nathan was at least somewhat unlucky and his ERA is probably inflated. Add to this that he will be one more year removed from Tommy John surgery (when people are supposed to truly be 100%) and he had a 3.18 ERA in his last 30 appearances, and I think he would be a much cheaper, and shorter-term option to someone like Madson, with only a slight drop-off in production.
Pass…
16. Carlos Pena – Walk, HR or strike-out. Would be intriguing as a stop-gap to Howard, but will get a full time job.
17. Francisco Rodriguez – Too unstable for my blood.
19. Javier Vazquez – Probably retiring.
20. Heath Bell – His K/9 rate plummeted and ERA rose last year. Not good signs for a 34 year-old closer who will demand big bucks.
21. Coco Crisp – Not really what we need.
22. Hisashi Iwakuma – Signing with Twins
23. Kelly Johnson – If he could play 3B too, he might have some intrigue.
25. Paul Maholm – No.
27. Bartolo Colon – How he was decent this year is beyond me.
28. Erik Bedard – Sure, then we’ll sign Mark Prior.
30. Jason Kubel – Declined in 2010, injured in 2011.
31. Ramon Hernandez – Will be a starting catcher somewhere
32. Jeff Francis – This got bad quickly
33. Chris Capuano – See #32
34. Tsuyoshi Wada – Another Japanese pitcher.
36. Casey Kotchman – Would be a good stop-gap for Howard, but it looks like Mayberry will take that role.
37. Freddy Garcia – Very funny. Can we have Gio Gonzalez back, please?
38. Aaron Hill – 2 straight years with an OBP under .300
39. Johnny Damon – Likely a DH
40. Aaron Harang – No.
43. Juan Pierre – Only if it’s 2003 again.
47. Jonathan Broxton – We broke him.
50. Bruce Chen – LOL
So there is my first run at the FA list. Re-sign Jimmy, get Cuddyer or Willingham, get Barmes or Carroll and sign Nathan to close. With those moves, I think we would have some financial flexibility for a trade, either in the off-season or at the deadline.
What do you guys and gals think? Who on this list should the Phillies go after? And what should they pay?
No Brad Lidge?
Also, Bruce Chen – LOL x2
Need to go hard after Nathan, in the hopes that other teams will back off. I’m assuming the Twins will extend an offer to him. He represents our best chance at quality without overspending. If not, it might as well be closer by committee. I like Rafael Soriano. not sure what his plans are, but I think the price tag may be high.
Gotta think Soriano will stay with Yanks – he’s making way too much.
Don’t know what the market will be for Nathan – if teams are really serious about a closer, they will go for Madson and Paps first. Probably best to let the market play out.
Switchhitter Coco Crisp stole 81 bases in 93 attempts for Oakland last 2 seasons. Played left early in career with Indians. 11th in outfield fielding % among active players. 18th in sacrifice hits among active players (Hairston 9th, Polanco 13th, Carroll 17th, Damon 29th, Punto 36th, Wright 38th, Furcal 41st, DeJesus 74th, Rollins 95th). Made 5 3/4 mil last season. Turned 32 yesterday. Might be a helpful piece, add some speed, fundamental play, versatility. Surprisingly, career 162 G avg numbers
neighbor Rollins’. Don’t know anything of his personality or intangibles. Pete, what don’t you like about him? Didn’t tear it up in Boston but seems worthy of some consideration as a potential LFer/4th OFer for Ruben’s New Phils, minus Ibanez.
As a 4th OF, I might be interested – but I would think he gets a starting job somewhere.
For me I see his .314 OBP last year and his injuries the two years prior as red flags. He does have some personality issues (DUI in spring training this past year), but I didn’t really factor those in
The stolen bases are impressive, to be sure, I just think we need some better bats in the line-up.
Crisp’s ’11 .314 OBP is Ricky Otero-ish. But ya got worse in your “now we’re talkin’” category: Grady Sizemore, .285 last yr, .271 in ’10. The 2 former Indian up-and-comers haven’t quite measured up to early expectations, though both can play the game when healthy.
Yeah, the Sizemore pick is pure risk/reward. Was horrible last two years, but wasn’t healthy either.
Unlike a Jayson Werth though (back when we picked him up), I think he’ll get a decent MLB deal on potential alone.
Thanks, Pete. Wasn’t aware of DUI as a factor. Just thought he was an interesting option. Would probably make more sense if Lopes were around to help maximize speed’s effect. With “Big Rig” Cholly still double-clutchin’ in the cabin, Coco could get cold. Phils need a roadrunner or two to change station-to-station m.o. though. An unnerved pitcher is a sitting duck. It’s time they worked to manufacture runs again, not wait for the big swat.
FA buyer beware: Madson, without tight infield would droop, my opinion. Portable effectiveness in question. Has been good, also has been fortunate to serve in red pinstripes.
I’d like to see Ruben put some effort into exploring beneath the top 50 to improve the bench. If conversations lead him to believe these are not roads to pursue, so be it. But if some game exsists in 2 particular players, pursuing them might be fruitful.
Anytime you win 102 games, it’s assumed, and often safe to say the bench was good. The bench players did indeed have enough positives that you could believe that. Brian Schneider mixed in a couple timely hits and the team was about 24-3 in games he started. Mike Martinez had some excellent games in June. Wilson Valdez has fooled some people into thinking he’s a good defensive player (he is at best adequate). Bennie Fran actually hit 6 homers in April, and a big one in October. And the Phils offered a goodly number of at bats to the bench bunch in this injury effected year. John Canberry was indeed terrific, but breaking balls from right hand pitchers still remains an unsolved mystery, and 1 bench player isn’t enough.
Canberry never got much chance to strut his stuff in October. He started 1 game, and Charlie sat on him as a pinch hitter in another (Game 2?). While that was developing, Allen Craig improved the Cardinals everytime Matt Holliday got hurt. Ryan Theriot, defensive shortcomings not withstanding, made for 1 helluvan offensive bench guy. Charlie went with a below even struggling Polly, and might have anyway, but having a more suitable replacement in a meaningful series might have helped.
The 2 names I’d like to see Ruben look at are Chone Figgins and Andruw Jones. Figgins has been terrible the last 2 years. He’s at about 10 mil for 2 more years. Do scouts think he has game left? Don’t know til you ask. If there’s enough yes in the opinions, then pursue point B, and see how much Jack Z would pay of that retrospectively terrible contract. Trade the affordable, if not productive Fransisco for Figgins. If Jack will eat most all of the deal, if Figgins has any greatness left, he’s a helluvan upgrade over Martinez and Valdez.
Andruw, of course, is one of the all time great fell off the cliff types. 14 RBI into August after signing an 18 mil per deal with the Dodgers. But he made some progress the next year with Texas, and didn’t play much last year in NY, a so so at best stop in Chicago inbetween. At one time, he was one of the best defensive CF in the history of the game. Does he still have some of that left? One never knows until they ask.
A cheap bench for 2 players fighting to show what’s left might be a good way to go. Figgins as first sub at a minimum of 2nd and 3rd. Andruw as a 5th OF, and righty bench bat. In the latter category, he can’t be worse than Benny Fran.
Personally, I’d put a little time and effort into exploring the options. If the answers are no, so be it. But if there’s value there, it’s probably more than most any of the top 50.
Trade RHP Michael Pineda, RHP Brandon League, OF Greg Halman, 3B Chone Figgins (with Seattle absorbing $16 of remaining $17 million on Figgins’ contract), and SS Carlos Triunfel to Cincinnati for 1B Joey Votto and C Yasmani Grandal>>
That’s a suggested trade from Dave Cameron, who follows the Mariners. Now whether Jack Z would be inclined to eat that percentage of the contract, who knows.
Former best pitcher in the game candidate Josh Johnson, who dominated these blog waves for a short spell with a recalled historic H/9 start in ’11 came up short in the WAR standings. This year. He finished behind Kyle Lohse. That’s what you call utterly amazing. It’s not a knock on WAR, or a shot at the pretty serviceable Lohse. More a recognition of the necessity of staying healthy, and contributing on an ongoing basis. In that regard, Mr. Oswalt should expect to make less than Lohse next year. I doubt his agent succumbs to that mode of thought.
Phillies have become staid. Out with the old, in with the new – Rollins, Reyes. Shake it up for real.
Is Reyes anymore of a hot dog/clubhouse ”me, me, me” than Jimmy “I’m a leadoff home run hitter, period” Rollins? Jose, 2,697 fewer PAs, 1 less triple, 1 more batting championship. Has already eclipsed J-Roll in AS invites. A little less in field (not as consistent), a lot more at plate. At only 28.
A major move. Would break some hearts, agitate. But that was endured last year. My only prerequisite: Reyes wants to play here.
No Thanks.
But why even bring it up?; his price tag will exceed whatever fantasy budget you can draw up.
Fantasy? Hardly. Real world. Where there’s a will there’s a way. You might remember, Phillies have 170-some million in ’1st round playoff loss’ talent. I’m into upgrading, not genuflecting. There’s maneuverability if Ruben would dare to move a ”sacred cow” or two. What’s your proactive nugget for improvement?
Utley, Howard, Polanco, Blanton. That’s most of our top earners, I am curious to see who you think you can move without swallowing cost. If you wanna move any of the pitchers, I think you’re crazy.
Pence, Victorino – Trade away a kid you just acquired or the position player with the highest WAR from the season we just completed.
Not only do I think that drastic improvement is not necessary, I think this is a good time to stand pat and not do anything major. The fact that we invested such huge amounts in certain players means that, while not reflected in their current production, they are not trash. <well you may feel differently on that one>
Sign the SS and the SP, stand firm with the RP and do whatever else you need to augment the bench, backup infield positions and pen arms to build a team that can take 162 games without a meltdown. Go into the 2012 and see what happens.
I am confident that we wont lose a 100gms. All we need to do is make the playoffs. The Nationals and the Marlins should be more competitive but I think 2012 will be more about managing injuries – biding time till Howard returns, managing Utley and Polanco, shepherding the innings of the 3 SP etc.
I understand not wanting to overpay Jimmy …. but Jose Reyes?? talk about the grass looking greener …
Utley’ll probably rebound some with a winter of rest. Howard, will never be the same player following achilles injury. Polanco, nice player/teammate but on the slide, naturally. Blanton, will give you up-and-down results and gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today. Pence, happy, hustlin’ keeper. Victorino, won’t get better than last year, which translates to dropoff; key part but an untouchable only to rigid thinking. The “Big 3″ of starting staff could be reduced by 1 if the offering is otherwise boldly beneficial. Rollins or Reyes? Poll the other 28 GMs tomorrow for their 2012 preference – landslide.
The future can be warm but only if business is executed cooly. The Phillies organization leans to a sentimental side. 2008 was a very good year. “Don’t look back, something may be gaining on you.” ~ Satchel Paige
2 in fold today: Pete Orr and Sum Mo Mentum. Hold onto your hats!
Jim Thome signed - http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=rotowire-imhomeignswithhillie
Good work, Garvey! You beat philly.com and local cabbage heads to dissemination of news. The boss would like to have a word with you before you leave tonight. By the way, he’s in a good mood.
I don’t know that I’d describe it as a 180, but I’m doing some rethinking on what the Phils might/should do about the shortstop position. I saw where the club signed JT over the weekend, and had to laugh at the timing of it. Being of the understanding that he had a no trade clause in his Twin deal (perhaps wrongly so), I never understood why he didn’t force his way here last August when he wound up with the Tribe. Thome, in a short season was a terrific idea. To say the least, the idea of him hitting late against Chris Carpenter in a 1-0 deciding game is compelling. To utilize a roster spot over 140 games (pre 40 man) in what figures to be a competitive battle to make the playoffs is a little different. The skill set, shall we say is pretty limited, not to mention a year older. Not that he isn’t an easy guy to root for.
Then I saw where Jim addressed Michael Cuddyer’s game, whispering all the sweet nothings about him you’d expect. And it’s not like he wouldn’t serve multiple purposes. Suffice to say he’s at that age where caution’s advised against a southern turn, and there is plenty of that already. But mentioning Cuddeyer and impact in the same sentence is risky business.
Pat Gillick’s primary focus upon arrival in Philly was seeking players with energy. He already had a good quantity of that as Ed Wade’s draft classes were offering on the way up guys like Jimmy, Chase, RyHo. Age may not own those guys yet, but that’s the visible direction. The Phils are closer to needing impact now than they have been for a few years.
Jose Reyes, on the other hand, is only 29, and I’m not insensitive to a lot of pay for play, or blind to the leg problem rep, but there are some things to consider.
Reyes had 9, count em 9 RBI in the second half of H2, ’11. Ben Zobrist had 10 in 1 game last year. But Jimmy’s had leg problemmas, and another potential SS, Raffy Furcal is another guy with leg problems. Who don’t have leg problems?
Comparisons between Furcal, Jimmy (even if he doesn’t think so), and Jose on 2 legs are a joke. Reyes, in Gillickology is E-N-E-R-G-Y.
Ryan Braun, stuck in Milwaukee til about 2017 now has loudly campaigned for Doug Melvin to go after Reyes. I consider that a meaningful endorsement of worth.
I don’t have a good handle on what stays under the luxury tax, and admittedly, that may blow this thinking up, but I know 2 things about what kinda money’s going to fill the shortstop job. Reyes, last summer, was the subject of sample opinions that had him in the neighborhood of 100-120 mil for 6-7 years. Personally, with the advantage of seeing his limited H2, I doubt he costs that much. Say you could get him for 80 mil over 5 years. That’s about 3-5 mil more than you’d pay Jimmy for the next 3 years, which pardon my kindness with someone else’s money, but that’s not so bad. Not to mention probably worth the difference in production. The next 2-3 years, it’s not like a 32-34 year old figures to be worthless.
The other thing I know is that market values aren’t going to settle in until people start signing. It’s possible the upper echelon guys get close to what they’ve publicly fantasized about. I think it’s a little high, but market guesses are just that, particularly in the case of a fan that is at best educated guessing. It’s just strange that if the Phils wanted Jimmy, this wouldn’t have been done by now. If you’re gonna string him out, and if he’s gonna keep taking advantage of microphones to talk about 5 years, you might as well explore other options since it’s all part of the game. Especially since one of the other options, legs not withstanding since he’s hardly the only one, is better now, and in all probablity, will be in his age 32-34 years. Jose’s top slary to date is 11 mil. You guarantee 14, with incentives to 18, and it may come down to does he want to play in Philly. 4 years, 5 mil 5th year buyout or same annual pay. The Reyes party wouldn’t be disrespectful to the offer.
It appears imminent now that the Phils and Ryan madson will finalize a deal for 4 years, with a 5th year vesting option for an AAV of over 11M. I suspect many people will react to this as an overpay, and be critical of the money.
Arguable enough point in a lot of ways. But the key to this is seeing what strategy Ruben and company employ to head toward a 2012 Opening Day roster. Barring revelation at a press conference, this seems like it could either say the money’s spent, and Galvis is the shortstop, or we’re going for it even more than before (if that’s possible), and just as we paid premium bucks for a closer, the shortstop position will be manned similarly. Personally, I believe this directs towards the latter, either pushing for Jimmy, which is now going to be even more expensive (minimum 12×3), or at least staying aware of Jose Reyes’s availability.
All I know for sure is that win or lose, I’m with Ryan Madson every step of the way. His small quantity of injuries have escaped his pitching arm, and he’d have been missed in that clubhouse. This surprising development is outstanding news.