As exciting as it always is to play the Red Sox, this is a series with slightly bigger implications.
We could end this series in 2nd place, or 5.5 games up and lots in between.
The Braves are on fire right now and like us, they’ve done it with pitching. Their starters are great, but not as great as ours, and their bullpen is probably the best in the majors, particularly the middle relief. If they have the lead after 6, it’s a problem for the other team.
2011: 55-33
2010: 47-41
2009: 50-38
2008: 48-40
2007: 44-44
Like with the Red Sox series, let’s take a side-by-side look at how these teams have performed so far this year (does not include Braves game yesterday):
Some observations…
- The Braves scare me far more than any other NL team. Jurrjens and Hanson are a great 1-2 punch, and even though they don’t go as late into games as our guys do, it doesn’t matter, cause they have the best bullpen in baseball behind them.
- Their offense, like ours, has been suspect, but also like ours, it has room to improve. Prado has been out for awhile and Uggla and Heyward should both improve at least somewhat in the 2nd half of the year.
- The one thing I do like about any match-up we might have with them is that they have only RH starting pitchers, but once you get into their bullpen, our lefty heavy line-up will have some trouble.
Some of my tweets you may not have seen…
- JC Ramirez tonight (7/7): Complete game, 0 ER, and a loss
- 600 HR club, removing known PED users: Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr. Jim Thome’s 600th HR should be a much bigger deal.
- On 7/20/07, the Phillies were 48-48 and hadn’t made the playoffs since 1993. Since then they are 378-262 (.590) and 25-16 in playoffs.
- In 2007, the year the Phils started this division winning streak, they were 44-44 at this point in the season
- OK Phillies, Shane Victorino is great and all – but can we stop making picks in the Rule 5 draft please? #Herndon #Martinez
- All-star time means another chance for me to trumpet my proposed additions to AS week: Fastest man home-to-3rd, and best arm from OF
- Ridic stat from @beerleaguer: Hamels, who sports a career WHIP of 1.150, trails only Mariano Rivera (1.004) as the MLB’s active WHIP leader. (note: Johan Santana is actually 2nd, but BBRef doesn’t consider him “active” since he is yet to pitch this year.
- Lisalberto Bonilla today (7/6) in Lakewood: 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 K — definitely one to keep an eye on
- Ryan Howard hit 58 HR in 159 games in 2006. He currently has 58 in his last 265 games, dating back to August 2009.
- How ridiculous is Jose Bautista’s rise? It would be like if Ben Francisco hit 54 HR’s next year. Seriously.
Three questions for the series…
- The fans are treating this like a playoff series, will the players?
- Cliff Lee has given up 19 hits in 10.1 IP against the Braves this year, can he, uh, do better?
- Can the Phillies offense continue to generate runs w/o Victorino or Polanco
Series expectations…
I feel like we 2 of 3 here. We should get enough off their pitchers to make it happen. But it wouldn’t surprise me if the Braves took 2 of 3 or even swept. They are hot, hot, hot right now, and I’m sure this series means a lot more to them than it does to us. Either way – it should be a good one.
my gut feeling is that the Giants vs Phillies is still the premier NL matchup
What a game! Phils young arms getting me real excited.
For all the groaning about the offense, it’s all about the game. And when it comes to winning games, the Phils definitely have IT.
End of this.
Raaaaaauuuul! Good to take the first game of a big series. Get the Braves again tomorrow!
I’ll bet you, before that inning, Rollins was all like, “man, I hate hitting behind the pitcher. They either make fools out of themselves or they luck into a base hit and then gum up my basepaths. God, pitchers are the worst.”
Then Cliff was like totally, “I’ma take this fool yard, Rollins, then I’m gon bang ya mutha.
… tough pitcher. but still no excuse for that performance. Lineup had better heat up in the 2nd half to justify this level of suckiness.
Another play left on the field by Howard. Our infield defense is pretty suspect.
Come again to play tomorrow and hope for better results.
It looks more and more like Howard could be the hinge on which this season swings. We just can’t win it all with no offense. There has been no perceptible change in the offense since Utley returned. He looks like he is laying hurt with either the hip and/or knee to me. His short swing is even shorter and choppier than ever. Brown will not be a differencemaker and Polanco is, as typical, beaten up after 60 games. It will be up to Rollins and Shane to get on and Howard to drive them in.
Utley over the last 28 games: .289/.368/.826. Ops could be higher, But hes hitting the ball and getting on base.
From “The Folly of Statistics, Volume MDLXXXIV”: Ryan Howard’s fielding percentage this season is .997 (3 errors). Spectacular performance by official scorers!
Roy Halladay strikes out entirely too much - 65 times in 148 PAs as a Phillie! And his identical
.070 batting average and slugging percentage this season is hard to forgive. He makes some amends at 60′ 6″ however.
Relax, and enjoy your Sunday … reminder on today’s opponent - “not enough there.” It’s a great day to hit a flutterball, if you have the patience and the reflexes.
Yes, the braves remain a nice little team with not enough there. Unfortunately, the Phils in their current offensively challenged situation are little more. Lets wake up here – Braves big offensive pickup and presumed 1Ar offensive anchor is hitting .183, their 2nd year sensation is barely proving he belongs in the big leagues, and chipper is logging a very Philly-regular like .260ish. Oh, and we think Rollins is offensively challenged….take a look at the billiant AG (no the other one) sporting a .230 with little else to go with it.
Neither team could smell a title with thier respective offenses, short of everything “falling just right and having the magical run” like the giants last year. They were and are a similarly very flawed team. I would fear facing a team like the Brewers in the playoffs, who have adequate pitching (wchi is all it takes to limit us to 0-2 runs per game) and could readily score 4+, more than either the Braves or the Giants. Then their is Boston or NY which would make these teams look, well….unworthy, lets just say that.
Braves 1st in pitching, 26th in hitting; Phils 2nd in pitching, 20th in hitting. Pretty much a wash.
Braves 2.99 ERA 10 SHO 734 Ks 57 HRs 32 of 46 SVO
Phils 3.04 ERA 13 SHO 699 Ks 63 HRs 25 of 28 SVO
Braves 364 R .238 BA .306 OBP .387 SLG
Phils 370 R .247 BA .320 OBP .379 SLG
Braves .609 H/.578 A (more equilibrium)
Phils .688 H/.548 A
In any October series, Phils better have the extra game at Dorney, I mean, Citizens Bank Park. It’s their can of spinach, including an average of 45,474 Olive Oyls. (Surprisingly, Phils rank only 9th as road draw.)
Is it possible to play the first round playoff series between a div champ with the best record and the wild card team coming out of the same division, or do they maneuver to not allow that to happen?
Just would rather play somebody like the Brew Crew in a 5 game series than the Braves.
I’m almost 100% positive that teams from the same division do not play eachother in the first round.
Yes, I’d bet the farm that teams in the same division cannot play each other in the first round. The wildcard would play the 2nd best division winner (if the division winner had the best record in the league)
Mayberry 5 for 16 with a couple homers since coming back (accorinding to Jim Jackson). Anderson says he adjusted his stance to cover the inside of the plate better. And jj just said that about half of his major league hits overall have gone for extra bases. Cool stuff. If he can keep hitting consistenly enough to keep himself in the lineup, he’s a major defensive upgrade I’ve Raul or brown a this point.
That’s well and good but after the All-Star break he is probably sent back down when Worley returns…
Possibly. I think its has more to do with how quickly Shane comes back though.
Ah, true.
Hamels-116 pitches Why ?
I think we now know who the Phillies’ thorns are on the National League– the Braves and the Giants!
Hopefully, with our pitching staff, consistent defense, and some TIMELY offense, the Phils will make it back to the World Series where they rightfully belong!
GO PHILS!
Pete, can you provide an explanation about who is this guy Juan Perez and where did he come from? He is 32 and a journeyman from what I can tell. I hadn’t even heard of him until they called him up and you never have mentioned him in the past.
Dude threw the 46th 9 pitch, 3 K “immaculate” inning in history. To put that in perspective, there have been 271 no-hitters in the same time span…
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Pérez_(baseball)
Career minor leaguer. Was a hot prospect in boston’s system for a while & played in a futures game, but it must not have worked out bc the mets bought his contract the next year & parked him in AAA. Then a brief & unremarkable stint in the majors with The bucs, then stInts in LA and ATL’s systems, then we signed him to a minor league deal this before this season.
Cool stuff about the immaculate inning. Kinda like Eric bruntlett’s unassisted triple play
To me it’s not about the 9 pitches, as it is about the way they struck out. When you have hitters swinging at balls, in the dirt, you’re dong something good. Whether it’s his stuff, or the delivery angle or both, Juan Perez has got something good going on. As luck would have it, we have an opening for a lefty specialist in our pen.
Though that addition might make sure the re-exodus of Mayberry. Damn, the expanded roster cannot come soon enough. I wish we could just cut Ben Francisco. He’s ok but Mayberry provides the same services with more versatility.
a writer tweeted last week that he never saw Perez throw that many strikes. He’s had a history of control problems-so it seems as if some feel that it may be a fluke.
JC Romero came to us 4 yrs ago with that same problem and he turned it around. For 2 yrs or so. Let’s hope this is a 2nd coming.
I thought Francisco was going to have a good year, but unfortunately that didn’t work out. Definitely agree that Mayberry if far and away the more complete player. Luckily we dont have a huge investment in Francisco – I think his contract escalates .5 mil/ year and tips out at 2m in 2013. I’m by no means an expert on the contractual arcana of baseball, but I’d think that if we wanted to buy him out, DFA him or whatever, it probably would be doable…
I think he’s just signed for this year
Yeah I was looking at Pete’s depth chart. But forgot that orange highlight = arbitration estimate
What is the latest report on getting that right-handed bat? Ludwick sounds interesting. The Padres will be coming to town this month. Hopefully, the Phils make the right deals to get a bat and some bullpen help.
Ludwick hasn’t done much at SD, and Cards gave up on him. On the other hand, he may adapt well to a hitters park since he does have some power.
Dino: That’s exactly what I was thinking, not to mention he used to protect Pujols in that Cardinals lineup in the Championship Years.
Anyone watching this Home Run Derby? Yeah, I didn’t think so.
Full Disclosure: I’m watching it…. for now.
hehe they tried to spice it up with a different format and ESPN anchors to cheer-lead the crowd.
If it can’t work in Chase Field, it’ll never work.
Kids got the box rights now so I’m not watching anymore.
The ESPN anchors are awful (Berman especially, he does highlights, he’s not an emcee) and the whole thing is going to break the nothing-entertaining-should-take-more-than-two-hours rule. Of course, that’s not a hard and fast rule, i.e. every MLB game, The Godfather, but a Home Run Derby is based solely on the excitement of the homerun. First of all, that’s sort of like basing something on the “excitement” of fireworks. Secondly, whatever excitement there is in the long ball is surely lost when the whole things takes so god damn long that if you haven’t changed the channel by the middle of the first round it’s because you’ve fallen asleep.
It doesn’t appear we will have any 20 game winners, which is a bit surprising. Each starter has 14 starts left. Hamels or Halladay will need to win 9 of those to reach 20, which is a high percentage.
Read the Phils may try to get Bell from SD. I sure hope they can get a bat.
Howard not at the all-star game is a travesty. He should have been there and in the HR derby.
credit the Phils sorry offense for that. Just the same way it is still possible for Hamels or Doc, moreso, to get there is the Phils get their head straight.
I would be surprised if we traded for Bell being that the price would be quite high for a 3-4 month rental. And of course he will demand a steep price to re-sign. And we still have Lidge, whatever that means to you.
I would hope they pass on the bat. I really dont need to see another has been, as much as this offense needs a jolt. I’m going into a WS with this roster; when healthy. Win 2-1 games all the way and walk outta there with my ring.
thats a tough road. REmember, we had an ace staff last year and couldn’t even make it to the WS. Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt was as good going into the playoffs as the big three will be this year. We need a bat. Moreso, we need a player on offense with attitude. He doesn’t need to be an All-star. It seems like the offense has lost its identity. It had Rollins and his brash tude to spirit the guys but he can’t be that person anymore with his drop-off and injury prone-ness. They are missing that edge and hunger since they won. Now they have it in the pitching, but not on offense.
thats a tough road. REmember, we had an ace staff last year and couldn’t even make it to the WS. Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt was as good going into the playoffs as the big three will be this year. We need a bat. Moreso, we need a player on offense with attitude. He doesn’t need to be an All-star. It seems like the offense has lost its identity. It had Rollins and his brash tude to spirit the guys but he can’t be that person anymore with his drop-off and injury prone-ness. They are missing that edge and hunger since they won. Now they have it in the pitching, but not on offense.
No Howard, travesty? Not really.
Votto .324 BA OPS+ 159 TB 172 SO 71
Fielder .297 BA OPS+ 169 TB 184 SO 58
Sanchez .293 BA OPS+ 132 TB 161 SO 60
Howard .257 BA OPS+ 127 TB 161 SO 98
The other 3 have been better to date.
RBIs alone do not an all-star make; Votto (66) & Fielder (72) match up there. Sanchez bests Howard by 36 pts in BA, 5 in OPS+ and has struck out 38 fewer times.
Fielding end, errors: Votto 2, Sanchez 3, Howard 3, Fielder 9
“Almost all-star” seems a fair designation for big #6 this season.
Gaby Sanchez? He ain’t no all-star, as they say in West Virginia. I just need my eyes to see that. Again, you gotta get beyond just stats. Howard belongs there as a fixture of the game. He is big man with a big bat and a big reputation.
where are the RBI stats?
Oh, here they are…
Votto .324 BA OPS+ 159 TB 172 SO 71…55 RBI
Sanchez .293 BA OPS+ 132 TB 161 SO 60…50 RBI
Howard .257 BA OPS+ 127 TB 161 SO 98…72 RBI
The only stat he’s leading in is the only stat that relies in oart on the guys in front of him getting on base. It’s the only stat.
The “he’s a fixture” argument reeks a little of homerism, and I’m not limiting that to you or Howard, everyone makes that argument an underachieving star in their town gets snubbed. The popularity aspect of it is important, it’s a game for the stars and no will watch it without the big names but we’ve got Fielder and Votto there. It’s not like they’re running Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo out there. The NL has big name 1B that are performing better, it’s an understandable snub.
I had Howard on my team, but he is an understandable snub.
Votto and Fielder are well ahead of him this year. I’d put him in over Sanchez, but when you are talking about 3rd string, you can’t really call it “travesties.” And the Marlins needed a player in there.
If Howard could learn to poke outside pitches the other way, hed be a perennial all star. I do agree that stats don’t always do him justice, but I don’t think he’s quite there this year.
RBI stats were referenced by me in both statement and numbers. Didn’t omit that consideration. Votto’s number happened to be wrong (you got it right, 55); was an unintentional application of his BB total (a Mr. Magoo moment).
The ribbie is Howard’s holding card - not much else I’m afraid. Over 91 games, Sanchez bests him in AVG, OBP, OPS, OPS+ and WAR (3.0 to 1.9) … did your eyes see that?! By the way, Howard’s 1.9 WAR is the lowest of his career – drats. And Votto bats 3rd – fewer ‘knock ‘em in’ opportunities. Joey crushes him in other important offensive categories.
Yes, of course, “[you] gotta get beyond stats” because The Big Paycheck’s performance didn’t merit him a spot on the roster. Condolences to you and your “fixture.”
Just a caveat about WAR – it’s cumulative. So if Howard’s WAR is 1.9 now, it would project out about 4 by the end of the year.
Thanks for reminder, Dude.
1.9 accrued in .562 of season; .438 left. Odds are against his reaching 4.0 WAR, though he could if he soon locates his ’06 swag & swing. A conceivable outcome, not a probable one.
Baseball-reference.com WAR key: 8+ MVP Quality, 5+ All-Star Quality, 2+ Starter. Howard has only 2 seasons above 2.8 – MVP year (5.8) & ’09 (4.8). Bill Conlin trashed the measurement in his column today, for what it’s worth.