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Given that the Phillies will play 76 of their 162 games against the 4 teams in their division – we’re going to give them some special attention. We will start with the Nationals, who have been the doormat of the division for the last couple years, but are finally moving in the right direction after canning their front office and winning the Stephen Strasburg sweepstakes.
Line-Up:
I was concerned about the Nats line-up causing some trouble last year, and they were decent (9th most runs in NL), but not decent enough to keep the Nats from the worst record in baseball. They played very well with Nyjer Morgan in the line-up, but lost him to a season-ending injury. A full season of him could really help this team. Same goes for Jesus Flores, who looked like a good young player before injury derailed him as well. They signed Pudge Rodriguez to back him up and mentor him. If these two guys come back strong, and Adam Kennedy fills the black hole at 2B, the Nats could be in the upper half of the NL in runs in 2010.
Starters:
The Nats season probably won’t be measured in wins and losses, but rather in the development of Stephen Strasburg. We all know about him by now, one of the best pitching prospects ever, a 100mph fastball, 2 above average breaking pitches, and excellent control. They will likely start him in the minors, but unless he gets hurt, he’ll be up this year. John Lannan and FA signee Jason Marquis could give the Nats a decent top 3. After that, reclamation projects Chien Meng Wang and Scott Olsen probably won’t do much and I’d imagine we’ll see a revolving door at the bottom of their rotation (with Collin Balester, Matt Chico, Ross Detwiler, J.D. Martin, Garrett Mock and Sharon Martis).
Bullpen:
This could be the achillies heel of the team. Capps is a hard thrower, but coming off a year with 5.84 ERA for the Pirates, I’m not sure he’s going to be the most reliable closer. The rest of their relievers are either average guys who couldn’t quite make it as a starter, or washed-up veterans. The Nats will be good through the first 6 innings or so, but I think they lose a lot of games late.
Most Important Player:
As I said before, it’s clearly Strasburg. He’s by far the biggest ray of hope the franchise has had since it moved to D.C. I know I’ll be very interested in watching his first start just to see if all the fuss is worth. But I can’t say I’m happy about the idea of facing him a couple times a year for the next 6-7 years.
Farm System:
Aside from Strasburg, they have a few guys worth mentioning. Drew Storen was also drafted last year, and might soon be their closer. Derek Norris might be the top catching prospect in baseball by the end of year, but he is a few years away. The real impact might come in June, when the Nats once again have the first pick in the draft, and once again have the chance to draft a unique talent in Bryce Harper.
Outlook:
If they stay healthy, the Nats could hang around for a bit this year and even have a chance to avoid the cellar. In the end, they don’t have the depth anywhere to overcome injury of any kind, or any sort of prolonged slump. Strasburg could be a game changer for them, but his real impact will likely come in 2011 and beyond. Predicted Record: 75-87, 5th place
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