Of the 3 National League playoff teams, the Dodgers were the team I least wanted to face. The Brewers were sliding, the Cubs would find a way to miss the World Series and the Dodgers, like the Rockies last year, were peaking at the right time. Doesn’t mean I think the Phillies can’t beat them, just means it should be a damn good series. Since this is the biggest baseball series we’ve seen in Philadelphia in 15 years, I think it deserves a proper post. Phillies vs. Dodgers, how they match up, several categories. Here goes…
The Aces
Cole Hamels/Brett Myers
vs.
Derek Lowe/Chad Billingsley
In playoff baseball, this is the most important category. Both teams have had good success so far. Here is how they have looked in their 2 postseason starts:
|
|
W-L |
IP |
ERA |
WHIP |
K |
|
Hamels/Myers |
2-0 |
15.0 |
1.20 |
0.53 |
13 |
|
Lowe/Billingsley |
2-0 |
12.6 |
2.13 |
1.11 |
13 |
4 starts, 4 wins. The Dodgers’ pitchers were good, but the Phils’ were untouchable. Now, this is a pretty small sample size, so let’s look as these guys as they’ve pitched since the all-star break:
|
|
W-L |
IP |
ERA |
WHIP |
K |
|
Hamels/Myers |
12-8 |
173.0 |
3.01 |
1.17 |
145 |
|
Lowe/Billingsley |
14-5 |
171.3 |
2.67 |
1.19 |
132 |
So, the Phillies’ big 2 have been slightly better in their post-season starts, while the Dodgers starters have been a little bit better over the past couple months. However, Hamels and Myers had pretty much the same baserunners/9 rate and more strikeouts, despite the higher ERA. Baserunners is what I’m looking at in the postseason, because sometimes it only takes one or two clutch hits with men on to win a series.
Bottom line? The pairs are virtually even, and saying one is definitively better than the other would just be spinning numbers. But, if I’m picking one pitcher, I’m taking Cole Hamels, so if I’m picking a pair, I’ll take ours. Slight edge to Phillies.
The Mids
Jamie Moyer/Joe Blanton
vs.
Hiroki Kuroda/Greg Maddux
My first instinct is to compare the two old guys in Moyer and Maddux, but really, the Game 3 match-up will likely be Moyer and Hiroki Kuroda. Moyer had a better regular season than Kuroda, but Hiroki gave up no runs in his first playoff start while Moyer looked very shaky. And most importantly, Kuroda had a Tim Redding-esque season against the Phillies, giving up only 4 hits in 2 starts with a 1.39 ERA. Because of that, I’m giving the edge to Kuroda.
Maddux was good during the regular season (though mediocre once joining the Dodgers) but did not pitch against the Cubs. Blanton was fantastic in Game 4, but like Maddux, was hit-or-miss after joining his new team. Once again the pairs are virtually even, but I believe Kuroda to be the best of the four so slight edge to the Dodgers.
Leadoffs
Jimmy Rollins/Shane Victorino
vs.
Rafael Furcal/Russell Martin
In the playoffs, these guys need to get on base, bother the pitcher, run the bases and score runs. Let’s look at those stats for these guys since the all-star break. (I’m not going to use many pre all-star stats in here; at this point, it couldn’t matter less what people did in April. However, I have to use Furcal’s season stats, since he hardly played after the break.) RC/27 is runs created per 27 outs (click for definition), in my opinion, one the best indicators of efficiency.
|
|
OBP |
Runs/G |
SB/G |
RC/27 |
|
Rollins/Victorino |
0.357 |
1.2 |
0.57 |
5.90 |
|
Furcal/Martin |
0.405 |
1.6 |
0.36 |
7.56 |
People forget that when Furcal got injured early in the year, he was the early favorite for the NL MVP. The fact that he was so hot early on pads some of the numbers in that chart, but he seems to not have missed a step since returning, scoring 4 runs in 3 games vs. the Cubs.
We know that Rollins and Victorino have a knack for getting big hits, and we know that the disparity between the leadoff tandems is far smaller than those stats would indicate. However, the Dodgers’ guys get on base more, have better at-bats and have been more consistent this year. Therefore, we’re looking at a edge to the Dodgers.
RBI Guys
Chase Utley/Ryan Howard/Pat Burrell
vs.
Manny Ramirez/Andre Ethier/James Loney
Once those lead-off guys get on, here are the guys driving them in. There is no way I’m going to sit here and say that Manny isn’t the best of this bunch. His clutch hitting in the postseason is unmatched in the history of the game, and he’s played so well since joining the Dodgers, he’s gotten some MVP talk despite playing less than half of his games in the NL.
That being said, as a unit, the Phillies clearly have more depth here. This is assuming that Utley gets out of his funk, which I believe he will. Neither he nor Howard were particularly productive in the NLDS, but they will get the benefit of facing all righties in this series, which is particularly good for Howard (.967 OPS vs. RHP, .745 vs LHP). Burrell single handedly won Game 4 for the Phils, and hopefully that will give him some confidence in the NLCS.
Ethier and Loney are no slouches, but they aren’t good enough to push this category to Dodgers, even with Manny leading the way. Edge to the Phillies.
Bottom Feeders
Jayson Werth/Pedro Feliz/Carlos Ruiz
vs.
Matt Kemp/Blake DeWitt/Casey Blake
More often than not, the middle of the order gets pitched around, and these are the guys that end up being the hero’s in the playoffs. Just look at the Red Sox / Angels series, where the last two games of series ended on game winning hits by Erick Aybar and Jed Lowrie.
So who’s got the best bottom of the order? Let’s look at a chart again, focusing on run production and clutch hitting (post all-star break, as a reminder).
|
|
RBI |
BA w/RISP |
BA w/RISP and 2 out |
OPS |
|
Werth/Feliz/Ruiz |
55 |
.256 |
.231 |
.704 |
|
Kemp/DeWitt/Blake |
66 |
.237 |
.264 |
.795 |
I thought that Werth’s great year, and perceived knack for clutch hitting, would sway this category in the Phillies’ direction, but it’s pretty clear the bottom of the Dodgers’ line-up has done a better job of both run producing and clutch hitting during the second half of the year. Casey Blake hasn’t been talked about a lot since they got Manny, but he’s been a great addition as well. Edge to the Dodgers.
Middle Relief
Ryan Madson/J.C. Romero/Chad Durbin
vs.
Takashi Saito/Cory Wade/Hong-Chih Kuo
It seems like every playoffs, a middle reliever comes in and makes a name for himself. Francisco Rodriguez, LaTroy Hawkins and Hideki Okajima all come to mind. The roles of these players are never more magnified than in the playoffs. So what are you looking for in these guys? You want them to minimize baserunners, strike guys out and not give up the long ball. Let’s look at the post all-star stats in these categories:
|
|
WHIP |
K/9 |
HR/9 |
ERA |
|
Madson/Romero/Durbin |
1.37 |
6.82 |
0.69 |
3.86 |
|
Saito/Wade/Kuo |
1.02 |
9.83 |
0.45 |
2.32 |
How about not even close? The ENTIRE Phillies’ bullpen has had a fantastic year, but the guys who will be pitching in this series don’t really compare to the guys going out there for the Dodgers. The Dodgers’ trio has much better stuff and command. In the playoffs, you need middle relievers that can blow you away and kill a rally. The Dodgers have us beat there. Edge to the Dodgers.
Closer
Brad Lidge
vs.
Jonathan Broxton
Sure, Lidge has been shaky of late, but there is only one stat that’s important here. Lidge has 0 blown saves, Broxton has 8. The heading for this category is going to take up more than the body. Edge to the Phillies.
Bench
Greg Dobbs/Chris Coste/Matt Stairs
vs.
Nomar Garciaparra/Juan Pierre/Jeff Kent
So the Dodgers clearly have the name-game won here, with 3 all-stars sitting on their bench. But, do the numbers back up the names? These guys will be counted on to come in clutch situations and provide hits in tight spots late in the game. So we are going to look at the same stats as the “bottom feeders,” but I’m going to add one. The stat is called “close and late,” and it accounts for every AB taken after the 7th inning in a 1-2 run game. We’ll look at OPS in those situations.
|
|
RBI |
BA w/RISP |
BA w/RISP/ 2 out |
OPS in C & L |
|
Dobbs/Coste/Stairs |
55 |
.282 |
.207 |
.769 |
|
Garciaparra/Kent/Pierre |
37 |
.269 |
.262 |
.684 |
Looks like the names didn’t quite back it up. Dobbs, Coste and Stairs have as many post-break RBI as Werth, Feliz and Ruiz. The icing on the cake for this is one of Pat Gillick’s best finds in Greg Dobbs. 1.006 OPS in close and late situations and a .321 BA with runners in scoring position. Edge to the Phillies.
Manager
Charlie Manuel
vs.
Joe Torre
Unfortunately for the Phils, this one is as easy as Lidge vs. Broxton. Torre has won 18 playoff series to go along with 4 World Series titles, while Charlie just got his first series win. Have to give the edge to experience in this case. Edge to the Dodgers.
Intangibles
Here’s what the Phils have going for them in this category:
-
Home field advantage
-
The majority of columnists are picking the Dodgers, and the majority of columnists are usually wrong
-
Scrappier (real word?) make-up than the Dodgers
-
The damn city is due
Here’s what the Dodgers have:
-
The William Penn curse
-
Several players and coaches with World Series rings
-
The seemingly inevitable Manny/Nomar/Lowe/Torre vs. the Red Sox match-up
-
Momentum, of the freight train variety
The home field advantage is huge for us. We’ve been feeding off the crowd in the home stretch and defying the odds along the way (catching the Mets, beating Sabathia). Experience, shmexperience, I’m saying edge to the Phillies.
Prediction
Alright, so I’ve gone through 10 categories, so there must be a clear winner, right? Of course not. We’re looking at 5 edges to the Phils, 5 to the Dodgers. So what is the tipping point? What decides the series between two ridiculously even teams? Homefield? Cole Hamels? Rafael Furcal? Cory Wade? There are so many different outcomes, it’s foolish to pretend to know. Without a clear favorite after all this analysis, you really have to go with how you feel. My gut says the Dodgers. I think that’s because I’m a championship-starved pessimist that sees how things can wrong before I see how things can go right. But guess what? My gut said the Brewers in the first series, and I went with the Phils, so let’s see if lightning can strike twice. Phillies in 7.
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Great analysis with lots of support from stats. The only thing I would argue is the “slight edge” you give to the Dodgers in the “Mids” category. I’d give it a full edge. Have you seen Manny’s numbers against Moyer? Manny has hit .340 with 10 jacks. It’s not a match up I’m looking forward to.
Game 1 by the numbers:
Utley: 5-14 (.357) vs D- Lowe
Burrell: 6-19 (.316) vs D-Lowe
Rollins: 6-20 (.300) vs D-Lowe
I will not even bring up any other names because it is ugly.
D-Lowe against Phillies: 39-203 (.192) = YIKES.
So with them three up there adding up to 17 hits and 53 ABs. That puts the rest of the Phils lineup at 22/150 = .146. DOUBLE YIKES.
Cole Vs Dodgers = 19-81 (.235)
I look for both Hamels and Lowe pitch great games (take unders) and Utley to break out of his slump and come up with a THE big hit with Jimmy on base.
Let’s not forget how hot the Phils were/are right now either. In the last 10 regular season games, the Phils went 7-3 versus the Dodgers 5-5. Although the Dodgers swept Chicago, I think that had a lot to do with Chicago beating themselves. The Phils came out of their NLDS only losing 1 game, and that game was within reach with a few clutch hits that never happened (bottom 9th, bases loaded, 0 outs). Needless to say, both teams are on a roll which makes games 1 and 2 so important for us to win.
Also, many of the stats in comparison come against division rivals late in the season. I know the NL East wasn’t the “best” division, but I would have to say it was better than the NL West. Hopefully we can play like we did against the Dodgers in late August and go into LA up 2-0, end the series in game 6, Phils 4-2 series over.
Absolutely fantastic job, Pete. I did all my typing last night, so what follows is a re-posting of what I put under the “Phillies Take Next Step, Reach NLCS” topic.
Part 1: The Hitting
The biggest concern I have is that the Dodgers not only defeated a better opponent than did the Phils, but they also did it in a more dominant fashion. The Dodgers swept the Cubs and outscored them 20-6 in the process. Even though I wouldn’t say that the Phils struggled to beat the Brewers, we didn’t beat them as handily as we probably should have considering the pitching we got. We had many opportunities extend a lead or to put a game out of reach and we were pretty much unable to do it.
Another concern is with the supposed advantage we have because the Dodgers are throwing all right handers and our big bats hit from the left side. I fully expect the Dodgers to avoid Howard at least as much as the Brewers did, even more if possible. I think it is 50% that they don’t want to give Howard anything to hit and 50% that they know he strikes out a lot and can get him to chase. Another factor in this is Utley. His is obviously not 100%. Something is wrong with his hip. No matter how much he dissembles or refuses to use it as an excuse, it is adversely affecting him. He will most certainly give us something, but I don’t expect it to be anywhere near what we usually get from him. Those two factors will combine to lessen any advantage we might have. I think that the guys who will be the most able to take advantage of the Dodger righties will be Rollins and Victorino.
To further enhance our leftie advantage, I would like to see Dobbs start at third. He’s swinging a good bat and could really help us sustain rallies and push runs across. The thought of Feliz and Ruiz back to back every day followed by the pitcher frightens me. Remember the 9th inning Saturday? Well I think we might be seeing a lot more of that. The Dodgers will be able to be more careful and pitch around the other guys knowing that those two are down there. I expect them to come up with runners on base pretty regularly because of it. I know I’m dreaming. Manuel will never do it. All I’m talking about is having Manuel do what he did on Sunday. He can start Dobbs and let him get the first two or three at bats. Then he can bring in Feliz for the final two or three innings and one at bat. He does it already with Burrell. I think it’s worth a shot with Dobbs.
The reason I am thinking this way is because I really would like to have another bat in the lineup. Specifically a “lower-tier” type of guy who will be pitched to and can deliver for us. Think about it. Each team will do everything it can to prevent the other team’s big bats from beating them. We will stay away from Manny and they will stay away from Howard. Well, you can’t avoid every hitter in the lineup. You simply must pitch to somebody. So, teams choose to pitch to the lesser players lower in the lineup. This is why you regularly see some lightly regarded player (see Lemke, Mark) doing major damage in the playoffs. A player like that will usually have many opportunities to drive in runs. I just flat out don’t feel very confident that Feliz and Ruiz will do that for us. I mean no disrespect for Dobbs with that “lower-tier” statement, but he is undeniably at least a notch below Howard and Utley. As such, I feel that he would get more pitches to hit and therefore more opportunities to drive in runs.
Part 2: The Pitching
I’m looking at this through the matchups. We have Hamels vs Lowe, Myers vs Billingsley, Moyer vs Kuroda, and Blanton vs (Maddux?). Since neither Hamels nor Lowe have pitched on 3 days rest, I am operating under the assumption that they will not do it now. If that is the case then they will each get two starts and face each other both times, and Myers-Billingsley / Moyer-Kuroda would follow suit.
I like the Hamels-Lowe matchup for us. Even though Lowe was fantastic in his last ten starts or so of the regular season, Hamels looked dominant against the Brewers. I really think that Hamels could get Lowe twice, but I will call it a split.
I think we have an even greater advantage in the Myers-Billingsley matchup. We have hit Billingsley, and Myers seems to have regained the mojo he had working prior to his two consecutive lousy starts to end the season. Also, if the series lays out the way I expect, Myers will be making both of his starts at home. This means that, conversely, Billingsley will be making both of his starts on the road. I see it as a significant advantage for us and I think we win both of Myers’ starts.
That gets us to 3 wins.
The Moyer-Kuroda matchup is a bad one for us. For whatever reason, Kuroda shut us down twice this year. Meanwhile the Dodgers are a patient club, so Moyer could struggle like he did against the Brewers. Also, Manny hammers Moyer. As long as Manny keeps coming up when there is a base open, we should be ok. If Moyer has no choice but to pitch to him, look out. I see us probably losing both of these games. I feel pretty strongly that game 3 will be a loss for us. The combination of the pitching matchup with the fact that game 3 will be the first home game in the series for the Dodgers tells me so. At best, we will split these two games.
The Blanton-Maddux matchup could be our biggest advantage. Blanton appears to be fully recovered from his biceps tendinitis and he should also have a fair amount of confidence after his win against the Brewers. Also, he will be pitching in Dodger Stadium which will suit him perfectly as a flyball pitcher. Combine that with the fact that we have hit Maddux well in the latter stage of his career and I think we win this game.
The Bottom Line:
That give us our 4 wins. I am picking us to win the series. I do this based on equal parts optimism, blind fan loyalty, and confidence that we can get the job done. We have been picking the Phils apart here for the entire season….how inconsistent the offense is, how we only score runs when we hit homeruns, how we strike out too much, etc…but the fact remains that we did win the NL East and we did beat the Brewers to advance to the NLCS. Whatever our shortcomings, we have done enough to win a decent amount of ballgames and we are still playing. Add to that the fact that Manuel seems to be locked in with his moves and I think we will play well.
What I would love to see is for Hamels and Myers give us a repeat performance and throw a couple of gems in games 1 and 2, just like they did against the Brewers. If we can leave Philly with a 2-0 lead, we will be set up nicely. Remeber, the Dodgers were not a good road team this year. (There is of course the possibility that, should the Dodgers fall behind 2-1 with “who knows” pitching game 4, they would decide to pitch Lowe on 3 days rest instead. If so, he would also be available for game 7 on regular rest. If that happens, all my matchups are out the window. There are too many variables to get into all that, so I’m evaluating it straight up.) In that event, I see us losing game 3 and then coming back with a win in game 4. We would then be up 3-1 and would have Hamels throwing game 5 in LA followed by Myers pitching game 6 in Philly. I’m thinking that Lowe would get Hamels in game 5, leaving Myers to clinch it in game 6 at home.
Even if the Dodgers were to win one in Philly, the 2-3-2 format works to our advantage. All we would need to do is win one game in LA in order to ensure that the series would come back to Philly. We would be down 3-2 but, we would still have two games at home and, again, the Dodgers were not good on the road. (I know they won 2 in Chicago)
Well, there it is. I’m officially on the record. Phils in 6!
I know I’m getting a bit ahead of myself, but I have an idea I’d like to throw out there. I know a lot of you guys will be checking in here, so I figured this would be as good a time as any to bring it up.
Would anyone be interested in meeting face to face at a Phillies game next year? Maybe we could pick a Sunday afternoon game and meet in Ashburn Alley an hour or so before the game for a couple beers and have a ReclinerGM family get together. I think it would be neat to put some faces to our names. Just an idea.
Pete and Dannie, what do you guys think?
bski – that is a good ideas. In fact I will be at about 20 Sixers home games this season if anyone wants to meet up. I will always let people know before the games when I go.
Games 1 & 2 “Aces“, season:
Phillies 24 wins, 23 losses; 57 home runs
Dodgers 30 wins, 21 losses; 28 home runs
With games being played at CBP, wide disparity in ‘dingers’ is worth noting.
Thanks Dannie. As you know, I live about 2 1/2 hours away from Philly. If you know the games you are going to, I’d like to find out way in advance. With all the stuff my two boys are into, there is no way I could just decide to go at the last minute. I need to look at both of there schedules and see if any free time happens to coincide with a Sixers home game. Weekends are better for me because, with the long drive home, I need to avoid school nights.
As of right now, I will list the following dates as possibilities: 11/15, 11/23, 11/30, 12/6, 12/13, 12/20, 01/19 (MLK Day against Dallas-probably a tough ticket), 01/24, 01/31, 02/07, 02/28, 03/15 (iffy-wife’s birthday), and 04/04.
As for the Phils, we have lots of time to try and arrange something, but I thought I would get the ball rolling early so that we could all try to find a date that works.
Wow, nice job on the analysis. Hopefully you won’t mind a Dodger fan point of view. I felt like I was at home listening to you talk, we are starved over here too. I didn’t know we had so much in common. I’m not sure who showed up to play against the Cubs, but I’m glad they did (I think the Dodgers and Angels switched places, just not sure if they have switched back yet). Which is my point, we’ll see who shows up. I would agree with the comment that the Cubs beat themselves, but we had more clutch hits in those three games than we had all year. All our pitchers showed up in fine form. I don’t think you can predict this one. It should be a fantastic series. More than anything I am impressed by your work here. Nice job.
Ian,
thanks for the kind words. hope to see you back again. we are always looking for other opinions.
Thanks. I’ll throw a couple of things out there for you to watch and ponder. The only big variable in what you have thrown out here is our closer situation, it is really up in the air right now (nice timing huh). Saito was the guy until he was injured. Broxton was thrown into the role a little early in my opinion and struggled a bit, he is really our setup guy. It will be interesting to see what Torre does, Saito got shelled against the Cubs in game 2 (they put him in with a big lead to give him some work and see what he could do, he gave up 2 runs with no outs, they pulled him and put in Broxton). He just came off the DL a couple weeks ago. He is money when he is on. Check out Saito stats prior to going on DL.
Broxton was left in for two innings in the only close game we had. I’m assuming because he only pitched an out or two in the eigth and looked great. Look for something similar to that. I would guess Torre will option Saito if he needs him, but only if he has had some more work and looks good.
Again, if Broxton or Saito are on it is lights out, but we’re never sure which one we’ll get. Kuroda too, he has either shut out opponents or is out in four innings allowing 5 runs (if he is on your call was right, he is fantastic). Lowe and Billingsly are pretty solid. Our fourth guy is very iffy right now, I’m not convinced he will use Maddux, he might surprise us all and go with Kershaw, although he said he wouldn’t. It wouldn’t surprise me though. One thing to think about, it was never revealed who would pitch the fourth game against the Cubs.
My son and I will be there at the fourth game so I am really looking forward to finding out. I do hope though contrary to your call that we get to see Moyer and Maddux, but that’s the old guy in me wanting that match up. Both are fantastic to watch, that is my kind of pitching.
Also, Kuo is out…not sure of Chan Ho Park status, but he has been really good for us this year.
This will be a good matchup. Can’t wait!
Ian, what are the chances of Lowe pitching game 4 on 3 days rest, especially considering your 4th starter dilemma? If the Dodgers do that, then Lowe would be available for game 7 on regular rest or, God forbid, be ready for game 1 of the world series.
Also, what’s the scuttlebut on the Phils over there? What are the Dodgers major concerns with us? Are they mostly concerned with our pitching (starters or relievers or all of it?) or are they still mostly concerned about our offense? Just curious how the opponent is looking at us, where they figure they have the advantage and where they figure we have the advantage.
My son (who calls these things way better than I do) floated the Lowe idea. He is very durable, and if he gets past the 1st inning will go deep and allow no more than 2 runs. I would not rule it out. If we are down by a game or two, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come in to shore things up and stop the bleeding. If we are up, I doubt it. Problem is if he is tired, the sinker doesn’t work as well and your guys would just take batting practice. Good question.
Offense, since until playing the cubs we didn’t have any. If we can get 4 or 5 home runs in one game like we did last week then that is not a concern, but if the normal dodgers show up then we are most worried about your offense. Manny’s not going carry us.
I think our pitching can stack up with anybody (even with closer issues) but we have struggled at the plate. That being said though pitching does come in a close second. I think someone here said what we’re thinking, pitch around Utley and Howard, I will cringe every time they get to the plate.
Ian, thanks for the Dodger fan perspective.
That’s interesting about Lowe’s sinker not working when he is tired. I’ve always been under the impression that the sinker actually works better when the pitcher is tired. Over the years I’ve heard many sinkerball pitchers explain that their sinker does not work well when they are too well rested. This is because the extra rest puts a couple more mph on the pitch which prevents it from sinking as much.
Anyway, from where I sit, I hope you do a lot of cringing over the next week.
“My gut said the Brewers in the first series, and I went with the Phils, so let’s see if lightning can strike twice. Phillies in 7.
Editor’s Note: The scientific odds of lightning striking twice are 1 in 9 million.”
HAHAHAH. who else loves philly sports bahaha
I think it’s really cute that you all are so convinced that the Phillies are gonna win. But Santa isn’t real, and you’re going down.
yes, i realize that i’m posting this on a philly blog, and I’m not exactly in the majority opinion though. But don’t waste my time and yours by responding to this by telling me that I’m wrong, stupid, gay, a bitch, a dumbass, because you have better things to do than tell someone who isn’t even listening that they’re wrong.
besides, I’m right.
Great analysis Pete. It looks to be a great series and could go either way. I think the teams match up well. If playoff Meyers shows up we have the edge in pitching. But I believe right now in the playoffs the Dodgers offense is better. Over the course of the season the Phils was obviously better but as you said April doesn’t count. Manny is absolutely dominant especially in clutch playoff situations. Furcal and Martin are solid at the top and they have some pretty good hitters (not flashy tho) such as Loney, Blake Either (who is on a tear) and Kemp. Combined with whatever is ailing Utley even though he won’t admit it and the Dodgers have the edge. It will be close and come down to a big moment in game 7.
Great to see some knowledgable friendly insights from a Dodgers fan. Hey Ian you should get a job at the LA Times. They are writing slop over there. Check out one of their sports writers bashing the Phillies fans. What did we ever do to him??
http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-sp-simers9-2008oct09,0,791234.column
Manny hitting .212 vs phillies, enough said. PHILLIES IN 6
bball – I read that article and… that guy sucks.
Concerning this series, I can’t help but feel that it will go to six games. Which team will win it in six? No idea. It’s going to be a great series with lots of heartbreak and euphoria to go around.
Go Phils!
Regarding bski’s suggestion, I think it would be great. I know I’m not the most frequent or ‘best’ producer of comments but I check this site 2-3 times a day. It would be fun.
On a side not, I finally saw Brand in a sixers uniform in the Boston game highlights. Still find it unbelievable. Can’t wait for the season to start.
nitram, you are an idiot. regular season stats does not mean anything in the playoffs. dodgers in 5 because they are that much better
ODRACIR, stop telling me that billingsley had better #’s than hamels, thats the regular season. stats dont mean shit. what kind of stupid name is odracir?
As much as you try to stay ‘impartial’ it’s obvious that this was written by a Phillies fan’s point of view. Dodgers in 6.
zane-
excellent analysis, very insightful. you should run for office.
stinger -
yes, I try. but as you can see from the banner, this is clearly a Philly sports blog.
ohhh shiiiiit. We got some action on the blog today. Gotta love the playoffs. Lets just look at the pitching:
Hamels>Lowe
Brett Myers > Overachieving all year Billingsley
Moyer = Maddux
Blanton without elbow tendanitis > Kuroda
And don’t even come back with Kuroda dominated the Phils this year because according to some dumbass LA fan “regular season stats don’t mean anything”. That may have been the dumbest comment I have ever heard. The stats are the stats. I am aware that guys can go on runs in the playoffs (like you did last series), as well as in the regular season, but basically over the length of a playoffs you are going to end up right around your career numbers. So with that said you shot your load against the Cubs and are ready to come back to earth. Also, wait until you face some pitching that doesn’t belong on the DL. JACKASS.
And to douche #2 he is not being “impartial” he is taking it all in and being a realist, which you should do to because the Phillies are goin to the World Series…. Phils in 6
Glad to see you’re up for it, Raro. Maybe we can get 6 or 8 of us together, along with Dannie and Pete.
Well, the day is finally here. Time to start playing the games and see if we’ve got what it takes.
I wish I got better AM radio reception, because I would much rather listen to our announcers over Buck and McCarver. Joe Buck calls a good game, but I get the sense that he’s in love with the sound of his voice. Plus, I’m not looking forward to the endless string of trite observations he will put forth for his partner, the pedantic, repetitive, professor McCarver, to expound on. I mean, seriously, how many times during that division clinching game did McCarver tell us that Lidge had not blown a save the entire season? All of that repetition may work well in a classroom, but it sure takes away from the game for me. Also, will somebody please ask him to stop saying Carlos Roo-izz?
I’m really pulling for us to sweep the Dodgers. I don’t want to listen to these guys any longer than I have to.
Ian, No need to cringe on Utley’s plate approach. Best short stroke in game disappeared in June. He’s a gamer but lacks stamina. Every year about this time he needs a transfusion. Bat has slowed. Sharpest part of game at present: Is adept at getting hit by pitches by standing still or leaning into off-speed stuff. His Charlie Chaplin-like blank visage masks a fierce competitor though. Will always try his best. At playoff plate, came up short last year against Rockies and this year against Brewers. Fine player overall, but touted a little beyond his accomplishments here in Philly, both for his obviously gritty efforts and digestable politeness and reserve. An average-plus fielder, but no Bill Mazeroski or Manny Trillo.
bball…I was just on the Inquirer’s Phillies blog. they are talking about that article over there, too. A guy from LA just posted a response:
Posted by schaff24 11:54 AM, 10/09/2008
TJ Simers is a hack/idiot. I live in LA. I haven’t even read the column ’cause I knew what he’d say. He writes these every time an LA team plays a playoff or big game against another team/city. He thinks he’s funny. He just tries to get people ticked off and uses their e-mails in another column. Sending him anything is just ‘feeding the beast.’ Best to just igore him.
Hopefully every rational Dodger fan feels the same way about that jerk of a writer, if that makes you feel any better about it. I was ticked off when I read it but, whatever.
I doubt the Phils need any additional motivation anyway. If they do, we’re in trouble. For my part, I’m doing my best to stay away from all negativity throughout these playoffs. I think we need to give the Phils all the positive energy we can muster. They have earned it, IMHO.
I was on the LA Times Dodgers blog “Blue Notes”. They have the Dodgers playoff roster posted. The only noteworthy thing is that Saito is off the roster and the tough leftie, Kuo, is on it.
Tremorless prediction: Dodgers in 7.
Phils have good team mojo working but Torre, Ramirez, Lowe, Maddux and Pierre know ; Manuel, Utley, Rollins, Howard and even Moyer wonder. Also like Dodgers’ pitching staff. Extra game at high-decibel CBP stretches series to limit. Edge in winning playoff experience decides between two pretty evenly matched squads.
I found an NLCS breakdown on usatoday.com. It was done by Ron Shandler of BaseballHQ.com. He picks the Phils in 6.
Just as I expected, it shows that you have acquitted yourself very nicely, Pete. You are even more impartial than you knew, or than those goofball Dodger fans who commented earlier would care to admit. Great work by you again!
good that Saito is off the roster, he’s real tough. I wonder why Kuo needed Saito to go down to make the roster? A fantastic lefty when we have Utley and Howard off the roster? I don’t get it.
Bski-
no need to defend me against the goofballs, but I appreciate it. The last time someone people came in spewing that kind of stuff was a braves fan in my pre-season NL east preview. needless to say, it didn’t turn out well for him.
Here are some quotes:
“do yourself a favor and stop writing about baseball until you do some research. the Braves will win the East by 2 games over the Mets, and the Phillies will hit the links in October.”
“out of morbid curiosity, why don’t you do me a favor and explain Church over Diaz, the same way you feebly attempted to explain Hamels over Hudson. (crap, by the way… does experience mean anything to you? a slightly lower WHIP and some more strikeouts in ONE season make you better than one of the most established, consistent big-game pitchers in the game?) ppppfft.”
“Diaz WAY over Church. You gotta be kidding me, right? He’ll play in 160 games this season and will be able to show why he’s got the third-highest batting avg in the majors over the last three seasons ”
“It’s funny, you seem content to simply project last year’s numbers in some areas (aka Delgado will suck, Hamels will enjoy the same success as last season), but predict some pretty dramatic changes in others (Smoltz will be less valuable than Myers, Hudson less valuable than Hamels, and Hampton won’t be able to pitch a full season).”
“i’m done with you. your blog sucks, by the way.”
If only he was here now to defend himself…
Braves came close though. 4th is almost 1st.
JJG, as a Dodger fan we will still cringe, we have a saying in our house that the Dodgers like to make struggling teams and players feel good (We got swept by the Nats). I do agree with the prediction of Dodgers in 7, I have to, but we will be on the edge of our seats.
BSKI, I’ve seen it too many times later in the game, he will leave it hanging, it doesn’t sink and then disaster. I agree with your conventional wisdom though, I’m just saying what I’ve seen. And as suspected, game 4 pitcher for Dodgers is TBA.
Last year we were a club divided between older and younger players. I think that we have bridged the gap this year. They are young, but have paid their dues…right after Loney hit the grand slam I knew we would take it. If one of the young guys does something like that against Cole it will be Dodgers in 4 or 5, for some reason we need that spark. If not, the kids will struggle. I do think the experience and the Manny boost will give us an edge.
Not surprised by Saito, but we’ve survived September without him, and will adjust. If Kuo is healthy watch out. Also, the lefty Biemel has been outstanding this year, didn’t see much of him in Chicago, but he can dominate.
I wouldn’t sweat the LA Times article. Look at the blogs they write on the dodgers, they do a good job.
I think we’ll pull it off, but we’ve left so many guys on base this year that I still worry in the back of my mind.
This has been good getting to know your team, I think I’ll enjoy the games better. I’m pretty ignorant outside of the confines of the NL West, I’m a little better informed now. By the
Pete, both Kuo and Saito have injury issues right now, Kuo was out of the NLDS, and I would be surprised to see him throw. Biemel is just as tough as Kuo, we’ll see how he plays into it. I would with your thought on Kuo he was healthy. If he is well I would make some bold predictions about the 6th and 7th innings.
Thoughts from ravine, out of left field: Johnny Carson was a class act. Had great timing. Liked making his “Tonight Show” guests look good. Some people are irreplaceable. Who can forget Carnac the Great, Floyd R. Turbo, Art Fern and Aunt Blabby? As this bi-coastal baseball series is set to begin, I tip my hat to the master of late night TV (1962-1992).
HOW CAN TIM MCCARVER NOT IDENTIFY A F-ING CHANGE-UP!!!!!!!!!! MY GIRLFRIEND, WHO WATCHES VERY LITTLE, IS EVEN CALLING HIM OUT!!!!!
Ian was right about Utley. How dare I doubt Utley. He is the man!
Pete- Completely agree. Wish it was still on TBS. He thought it was a cut fastball at 81 mph??? Jamie Moyer is the only pitcher with an 81 mph fastball. I was thinking the same thing. Don’t even get me started on Joe Buck slobbering all over the Cinderella Dodgers
Like I said earlier Pete, I hope we sweep the Dodgers so we’ll have less games to listen to him.
Looks like Ian was right. Lowe got a little tired and made 2 mistakes…that were hit over the wall!
I’d love to add on here in the bottom of the 7th (or the 8th). Ugh, damn Taguchi! If not, I’m confident our bullpen can close it out.
bski-
but apparently he can identify Madson’s change-up, and says its the “best on the team”
im floored. completely floored. how can you be doing the NLCS and be so woefully unprepared.
Yes! Madson has really found his groove. Looks like he’s locked in. C’mon, add a run or two, then it’s lights out in the top of the 9th.
Pete, I know. You kind of expect more from him in that area…considering he was a catcher!
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! THAT”S ONE!
The offense struggled again. We scored all of our runs in one inning again. WE WON AGAIN!
LOL– LIGHTS OUT LIDGE!! HAHA (with excitement in a Steve Mix voice)
“t.o” wannabe, stats dont matter, regular season stats are just that, regular season stats. if you didnt notice its the playoffs. If stats mattered in the playoffs, then Boston would have been swept by angels, since they were 1-9 this year vs them. But teams play different in the playoffs. Do you really think phillies will hold manny to .212 avg in postseason, i think not. He’s already hitting .500. For all you dumb asses who bring regular season stat into the playoffs, learn the game, watch some series and dont rely on insignificant #’s. Its the playoff!!! IDIOTS!!!!!!!!