With Phils’ “Haystacks Calhoun” pitching today, Manuel will probably have to wrestle with early-to-mid game bullpen decisions.  Unless bats wake up considerably (fair chance with Suppan throwing), CC will gladly pay them Tuesday for his “hamburger” of the other day.

Time to leverage that expensive pile of unused lumber.  Maybe ‘Vegas’ Vic will roll the dice, charge the mound and light the kindling.
     

Your response to what I said earlier, “…but these are the playoffs and I think he [Manuel] respects Burrell too much to sit him.” , is dead on.  I feel exactly the same way.  I said much the same thing a couple baseball topics ago.  I too believe that, in the playoffs, you need to take it day by day and give yourself the best opportunity to win each game.  (This is how I would like things to be.)

(Disclaimer:  I am now speaking about things as they are.)  The difficult part of this is that, as a fan, I do not need to worry about anything ( each player’s confidence, psyche, and whatever) other than putting the most productive players at any given time on the field and winning that day’s game.  I do realize, however, that, as the manager, Manuel does need to take those things into account.  That said, I do think he worries about those things too much.  Many times I think he stays with a player too long.  This must be why he is viewed as a “player’s manager”.

As easy as it would be to get all over Manuel, I won’t.  I still think that, more often than not, he makes the right decisions.  Yes, even last night.  I would have preferred to see more lefties in the lineup, especially Dobbs, but I know why Feliz played and I can grudgingly understand why Burrell played.  Charlie prefers to have Feliz at third when Moyer pitches, and I agree.  Feliz made a couple plays last night that I don’t think Dobbs makes and I think Feliz’ defense is a big reason why that game was still within reach for us in the late innings.  It killed me to see him ground into that double play, but, having already pinch hit Stairs and Dobbs, Manuel did not have another left handed pinch hitter to use.  Manuel sacrificed offense for defense and we came out on the short end but I’m sure he figured, just as I did, that Feliz’ defense would be needed (it was) and that we we get enough offense from our big bats so that we would not need to depend on a major offensive contribution from Feliz.  The fact that the guys who are supposed to be shouldering the offensive load continue to come up small is what makes this decision suspect in hindsight.

I think the whole manager thing comes down to your own personal preference or bias.  I see Manuel and Bowa as two sides of the same coin.  Bowa might keep guys on their toes more with his demanding style, but he can also cost you some wins by keeping guys tense and on the edge.  On the other hand, Manuel might cost you some games by worrying more about a player’s psyche, but he has also gotten us many wins by fostering a more relaxed atmosphere and by building a tight knit team.  It all depends on how you look at it.  Very few managers have everything in one package.  If I had to choose, I would take a guy like Manuel over a guy like Bowa.  I think the results we have gotten with Manuel should sufficiently explain why.

Now, what I would like to see today is a couple more lefties in the lineup.  I’m hoping we will see Dobbs at third and possibly Jenkins or Stairs in right, with Werth moving to left, and Burrell sitting.  I’m pretty sure we will see Dobbs, but I still don’t think Manuel will sit Burrell.  I can’t shake the feeling that Manuel is thinking how sitting Burrell would affect him for the rest of the playoffs.  At this point, I don’t like that one bit.

I hope you are right about Blanton.  Neither I nor Manuel are as confident as you.  How about this quote: “He has a chance to throw a good game,” Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said with a notable absence of enthusiasm. “I’ve seen him this year throw about three or four good games. . . . I think he’ll be OK.”  Of course, just to put that in perspective, Blanton has started 13 games for us, so 3 or 4 good starts isn’t really all that much. 

This quote begs the question, if you are so ambivalent about starting a guy, why do it?  This segues nicely back into our theme of the way we would like things to be, which is doing everything possible to give yourself the best chance of winning today’s game without worrying about tomorrow.  To that end, why not start Hamels?  As much as you can say we still have a 1 game lead, there is no need to panic, there is no reason to risk anything by starting Hamels on short rest, etc….you simply must acknowledge the 6″7″, 315lb elephant in the room who is ready and waiting to pitch game 5 and itching to prove that game 1 was an aberration.  Yes we beat Sabathia in game 1, yes Hamels gives us a good shot to beat him again, yes it’s a home game for us, but it’s a pretty risky proposition.  One that I would do anything to avoid.

The Dodgers have already moved on to the NLCS.  If we roll the dice with Blanton today and lose, our series extends to Tuesday.  If we win, we will have to turn around and play the NLCS on Thursday.  We do get one day of rest, but I would much prefer to go for the kill today so that we could be as rested and ready for the NLCS as the Dodgers will be.

I know there is no chance of this, so I sincerely hope you are right that we will hit better today and put some runs on the board.  It’s about time for our offense to win a game for us.

I have been typing for so long that I have just realized that we will not have to wait very long to find out.  Enjoy the game.  GO PHILS!

I really like Joe Blanton’s chances tomorrow night.  I love how he was able to block out all the negativity surrounding the trade for him and pitch well as a Phillie.  He’s from the South, those guys seem to do well in Philadelphia (if anyone can think of guys from the South who didn’t do well in Philly let me know).  As far as his performance in pressure situations go, look no further than Sept. 20, game 2 of a series with the Marlins down in Florida.  Florida had just tagged us for 14 runs in game 1, and with the Mets hot on our heels for the NL East lead, and with the steamroller Florida was on at the time, Blanton goes in there and pitches 5 strong, giving up only 2 runs while striking out 9.  Pitchers that have strikeout stuff tend to do well in the postseason.

And despite what I said about Milwaukee being prepared for this series, I think they might go into tomorrow’s underestimating Blanton – Joe is making his first postseason start, he’s going to want to do well, and I think that with his 1st round pick ability and a lot of focus, he can shut the Brewers down tomorrow.

As a matter of fact, I think even the Phillies might be underestimating Blanton, so they go into tomorrow night thinking they’re going to need to score lots of runs to win, and that up and down the lineup they’ll hit better.  This is something we’ve seen all season long in how they tend to score more runs for other pitchers than they do for Hamels.

- He won’t let Howard do any damage, which is brilliant.  They looked at tapes, saw that Howard carried them through September, and decided that if they were gonna get beat, let someone else besides Howard do it.  Although it sucks for us, I love watching the Ryan Howard – Mitch Stetter showdowns.

- Sveum hasn’t made any bad pitching moves, nothing to question.  Maybe bringing in Torres instead of Parra to face Howard in the 9th, but that’s it.  Gallardo, Sabathia, and Bush as starters made the Phillies really work for it.

- Don’t know if he had a hand in it, but Mike Cameron and Bill Hall working the count against Jamie Moyer, trying to get guys on base for Braun and Fielder, was another great move.

They’re really playing the underdog role very, very well, something that I respect as a Philadelphian.  They know they’re not as talented (supposedly) as the Phillies, and that they’ve got their work cut out for them, but they’re doing all they can anyway (the opposite of this would be something like the 1st round Lakers-Nuggets series last year, the Nuggets just laid down for Kobe and company, yuck).  And it’s not a “cute” kind of trying, they’re picking and choosing their battles very carefully, hoping that if they win just enough of those battles they can take the series.

“…but these are the playoffs and I think he [Manuel] respects Burrell too much to sit him.”

Sometimes, I think Charlie is managing as if it were still the regular season.  I love the postseason because suddenly, teams are taken from a slow-paced, rythmic marathon of games do small sets of do-or-die games.  If it’s the regular season, and a guy is struggling but you respect him, then sure, why not, give him a couple of games to see if he can get his stroke back.  But in the postseason, you don’t have that luxury.  We can’t put Burrell up there if you don’t think he’s gonna produce, period.  You can’t be worried about his psyche and mental makeup at this point, and it’s not a situation where Burrell can complain about lack of playing time.  The Phils need to be able to string together good at bats NOW, not a couple of games later, there are no games later.

So, if you took this Phils lineup and you needed to win the next game, how would you make up the lineup?  That’s how Charlie needs to think.  I’m not saying he doesn’t, I’m sure the Phillies has someone in the organization that understands this, and I hope that’s their reasoning for playing Burrell, not because of some sort of “respect.”

Here’s the Phils lineup right now:

average
struggling
average
above average
automatic out
red-hot
slightly below average
struggling
automatic out

That just won’t cut it.  I went out tonight, and on my way home I heard sports radio dissing Jeff Suppan, how there’s no way we don’t hit him up for a lot of runs tomorrow, and again, I think that’s crud.  Look at how Milwaukee pitching has made our lineup look, does that really look like a lineup that will have Suppan shaking in his boots tomorrow?  Where’s the damage coming from?

Let me start by saying that every preview I’ve read of this series was basically, “The Phillies will win 3-1 because they were better in the regular season statistically than the Brewers, but they will lose to Sabathia because Sabathia was statistically better than any of their pitchers during the regular season so that gives the Brewers one game.”  Seriously, talk about not doing your homework.  I really wish we had a Bill Simmons for Philadelphia, someone who could take it past simplifications like that.

There are a couple reasons why those analyses sucked, and one of them is: you’re not exactly pitting Philly’s higher probabilities of success against Milwaukee’s.  Today was a perfect example.  Everyone thought Dave Bush was going to get rocked, but I didn’t think he would (though I wish he had been).  Here’s something Bill Simmons might write: “Ok, so you got this guy from the Philly area, and he checks in with his friends and his family, and they tell him all about how sports radio and the Philly blogs and the media are expecting him to be completely mauled by the Philly hitters, because it’s Dave Bush from Conestoga.  DAVE BUSH!  FROM CONESTOGA!  WHO?  Well, wouldn’t he be totally amped for this game?  Wouldn’t he want to prove everyone wrong?  I think this guy grabs the coffee-maker and one of the scouts, locks himself in the film room, and then handcuffs the scout to the radiator and tells him, ‘The Phillies are going down, and you’re going to help me make it happen, or else…’”  I mean, did we really expect Dave Bush to bend over for the Phils’ big bats, like it was a foregone conclusion?

Back to the point, the Phillies faced a Dave Bush today that was much better prepared than he was the last two times they faced him.  In this case, you throw out all the probabilites based on the regular season, and you put over it a different probability model.