It wasn’t a huge deal when Villanova lost to Georgetown on Saturday. Nova wasn’t going to go undefeated in the Big East and losing to the #8 team, on the road, in the midst of giant blizzard that resulted in travel problems is completely understandable.
However, that loss did make tonight’s game against West Virginia more important. These were the first 2 really tough Big East games for Nova, and if they lost both they could go from Final Four contender to part-of-the-pack in the Big East really fast.
Nova met the challenge tonight, beating #4 WVU 82-75 in a game that shouldn’t have been that close, but a bunch of strange calls went against Nova.
Here are my thoughts from the game…
- What else can you say about Scottie Reynolds? I’ve never seen a player improve so much from their Junior to Senior year without an big increase in playing time or something. He’s shooting better, driving better and just playing smarter. He should be the front runner for the BE POY right now.
- While all the attention is on Reynolds, how about the break-out Corey Fisher is having in the last 10 games? Since the Big East opener, Fisher is averaging 15.1 ppg with a 55% FG%, 42% 3P% and 3.6 assists. In his last 5, he’s taken another step, averaging 17.6 ppg on 61% shooting. For a guy his size to have those shooting percentages over any period of time is amazing. He seems to be learning from Reynolds, playing a lot smarter and taking better shots. He has also had several 1-on-1 moves during this stretch, including one tonight, that have made the commentators just laugh.
- I’m not sure why we didn’t see more Dominic Cheek in this game. He made an NBA move and hit an outside jumper, hit a 3 and had a dunk off a good play by Reynolds and then we didn’t see him again. 8 minutes, 7 points. He’s really starting to look comfortable out there and getting me excited about his future.
- Same with Maalik Wayns. Only 3 minutes tonight. Wright usually plays the hot hand, and that was clearly Fisher tonight, but I’m surprised we didn’t see him when Fisher got into foul trouble. Hopefully Wayns isn’t in the doghouse or anything.
- The Freshman with most minutes? Isaiah Armwood, who is earning some minutes with his active defense and board work. 8 points (should have been 10), 4 boards in 18 minutes. High energy guy, just what we need with all these scorers. I think he’s going to be a far better version of Shane Clark.
- Taylor King is in a serious funk, shooting 24% over the last 7 games. He’ll get out of it, and it’ll be a big help when he does.
- Corey Stokes had 2 great drives to basket for his 2 field goals. I’ve been asking for more of this all year. He’s capable, but I don’t know if he’s assertive enough.
- No Yarou tonight. Probably for the best, he’s looked lost the last couple games.
- I’m not sure how far this team can go yet. I need to see some more games against the top teams, and there just haven’t been that many. Right now I think we could sneak into the Final Four depending on the match-ups, but I don’t think we would beat a team like Kansas or Kentucky who have really good big men. Syracuse will be a good barometer for me, as their inside-outside game is pretty good.
Guard play can have a huge impact on the tournament.
adam -
very true, but look at the big man on the last 10 championship teams…
2009- UNC – Tyler Hansbrough
2008 – Kansas – Darrell Arthur
2007 – Florida – Joakim Noah, Al Horford
2006 – Florida - Joakim Noah, Al Horford
2005 – UNC – Sean May
2004 – UConn – Emeka Okafor
2003 – Syracuse – Hakim Warrick
2002 – Maryland – Lonny Baxter, Chris Wilcox
2001 – Duke – Carlos Boozer
2000 – Mich. St. – Andre Hudson / AJ Granger
so 9 out of the 10 (not MSU) had 1st round big men on their team. Nova does not have anywhere close to a 1st round big man on their team. This year, Kansas (Aldrich, Morris twins) and Kentucky (Cousins) do and we’ve already had trouble with another team with one (Greg Monroe).
MSU was able to do it without one with Cleeves, Peterson and Richardson. That’s the model Nova will have to follow.
Kentucky has Patterson as well who will be a first rounder.
What about Syracuse? They don’t have a big man first rounder and I think they are a legit final 4 team with a chance.
I do wish Jay would toughen up on his out of conference schedule. I understand the Big 5 responsibilities and the depth and toughness of the Big East, but I think he needs to test his squad a bit more out of conference.
I didn’t get to see much of the WVU game but I watched every minute of the Georgetown game and it’s nice to see them rebound from an in-conference, top-10 road loss and beat another in-conference, top-10 team on the road two days later. It’ll be interesting how the two teams matchup again at the end of the season.
I’m still not 100% sure what to make of this team either. They have motor, intensity, some smart guys and some guys, like you mentioned above, that can just make defenders look ridiculous.
The lack of size is a problem, but I think their depth helps this. They don’t have that one big guy on the team that’s worried about foul trouble all night. What happens to Georgetown if Monroe picks up three quick fouls in the first half? Or Kentucky with Cousins? Then again, you don’t want to have to hope for that.
I’m having as much fun watching Reynolds this year as I did watching Cunningham last year.
I am really looking forward to the Syracuse game, should be a good one.
When is Taylor King gonna stop committing dumb fouls? He is such a spaz out there.
Go Georgetown.
King is a total spaz. You can see why he originally went to Duke, who is full of “white guys who are trying way to hard.”
That one foul wasn’t even close…the dude shot a 3 and King just decked him.
There was a moment after that foul when Nova huddled up and Scottie was talking to King and looking at him like he wanted to smack him in the face.
King gives Nova that kid that’s on every Duke team that pisses the other team off beyond belief. It’s an added bonus that he plays hard 100% of the time and has a nice stroke from three.
Your last paragraph says it all, Pete. Matchups will determine how deep of a run Nova will make in the NCAA tourney.
Their big-time, go-to guys are small and their bigs aren’t yet at the level they need them to be. Maybe Pena will surprise and step up or one or two of the youg guys will rapidly develop over the next few weeks. If not, gotta figure they will eventually run into someone against whom either playing their better smalls or their weaker bigs will be their undoing.
Another thing. I love their aggression, but along with the good comes a lot of turnovers, forced passes, and bad fouls that end up making many games a lot closer than they should be (like last night, as you mentioned).
They fight like heck for 40 minutes and usually end up channelling their aggression into more good plays than bad, but I get the feeling that this will bite them in the butt. Someone somewhere along the way will be good enough to make them pay for all those mistakes and to prevent them from being able to overcome them.
Sometimes when I watch Nova they remind me of an elite mid-major team.
When the tournament comes around they will win some games and if the match-ups are good they could go far.
The difference between Nova and those mid-majors is at least two-fold for me…
Also I think Nova’s defense is damn good and Jay Wright has done a hell of a job working with a smaller group of core players against bigger teams. So it’s not like they will run into someone or some type of team in the tournament and be caught off guard.
I think match-ups matter but when you are a top 5 team I think it matters much less.
If Nova were to face a Texas, Kansas, Kentucky in the tournament, if they lose I think it’s more likely because those teams have more overall talent more so than because they were bigger.
Pete’s list of the last 10 champions certainly had very good bigs. But look at their entire roster. They typically had at least one really good perimeter player too and multiple legit NBA talent.
Even that MSU team has 3 players who still play in the NBA right now (Bell, Richardson and Peterson).
Nova is missing legit/lock NBA players so team basketball is more important because they might not be able to ride Scottie Reynold’s coat tails against the other elite teams in the NCAA.
I definitely agree with everyone about that legit big man like cunningham was for us last year, but who else is able to go 9 deep like Jay does. This team literally can go 9 deep every night and they are pesty defenders. You couple fresh legs with pesky defenders and implement a good press with three point shooters which this team has and they can get back to the Final four. I really think they are team that can lose to say…Seton Hall and beat Kentucky in back to back games. Meaning they are very hit or miss. The great thing though Jay has a stellar recruiting class next year coupled with Wayns and Cheek and all these young guys. They are a top ten team for years to come. I really hope fisher stays next year to breakout without Scottie. He is so Good!
I would really be shocked if Fisher went pro. Or any underclassmen. Next year we will still be able to go 9-10 deep.
G- Corey Fisher, Sr.
G- Maalik Wayns, So.
G- Corey Stokes, Sr.
F – Taylor King, Jr.
F – Antonio Pena, Sr.
Bench: Dom Cheek, So., Mouph Yarou, So., Isaiah Armwood, So., James Bell, Fr., Jayvaugn Pinkston, Fr., Maurice Sutton, So.
And Nova might be the leader for Cory Joseph, a 5-star PG who would be the Maalik Wayns of 2011.
I don’t expect any underclassman to leave early either. I think Cory Fisher MIGHT test the waters like Scottie Reynolds did and hey we see how Scottie came back after that experience so that might not be a bad thing for Fisher to experience.
I think I would start Cheek over Wayns. Not on talent but for size and fit. I’d play Wayns and Fisher together for sure but I’d try to maximize there floor time by splitting them up since they play very similar games.
Isaiah Armwood, in two years, is going to be an absolute beast. I am really impressed with him and where he could be headed if he keeps improving his game in the offseason.
Jay Wright has done such an impressive job getting these guys to play TOGETHER, especially on the defensive end. I think it’s very telling when certain teams take their time to really turn the defensive clamps on if they have that capability; I love the fact that from tip off, Nova’s guards push their perimeter defense right out on the opposition and are pesty, stingy and make the opposing guard’s lives hell. It really says a lot about a coach that he can get this many highly recruited players to buy into a system this well. Can’t say enough about the guy.
bski-
turnovers are definitely a concern – especially those of the “unforced” variety.
BUT – Jay Wright’s teams have historically played cleaner as the year goes on (hence the tournament success) so hopefully this one does the same.
I hope so too, Pete. To that end, I wonder if Wright will either shorten his rotation a bit or take a few minutes from some guys and give more to a few others in an effort to cut down on the turnovers/mistakes.
I didn’t mean to sound nit-picky before. Wright’s brand of aggressive basketball has been very successful. Like I said before, more good than bad comes from it. It’s just that all out aggression isn’t always the smart play. I hate to see them go after every steal and leave themselves exposed (like King did on the block, giving his man a clear lane to the basket) or go at every shooter and commit dumb fouls (like King and Fisher did) or create a turnover through aggressive defense only to then turn the ball back over by over-aggressively trying to push the ball up the floor. Stuff like that, you know?
How do you guys think Nova’s forwards/size compares to yrs past?
2010 from 2009 seems a push. I don’t recall the last time Nova had depth like this yr.
2009-Cunningham and clark improved (and pena backed it up)
2008- same players but not as good as 2009
2007-I forget “)
2006 -fraser was awesome but a shell of himself
2005 and before- ?
2010-Nova has one returning upperclassmen. (Pena-junior). They also have 2 new players that are doing ok but raw (Mouph,armwood). They also have a random 6 11 C thats getting some rebounds and playing around the net (Sutton).
The previous teams always used guards for their size so thats more or less a push.
Sure beats the 4 guard rotation when nardi was the 4th starter.
I definitely agree Pete, but to be honest I was shocked when lowry left a few years ago. They sort of remind me of one another. Quick guards, fisher is more of a scorer and Lowry a better distributor, but Lowry left way too early. He is a decent pro though now. He might play the best defense in the league.
This year’s draft is very PG thin. Fisher will ABSOLUTELY declare. However, he’ll use this year’s 10 day scouting period to decide whether or not to stay. If he continues to put up the numbers he’s been averaging in the Big East, the Cats go deep in the tournament again and he gets more national exposure, and other point guards continue to shit the bed then I would not be surprised to see him be a mid to late first round pick. He has NBA court vision, speed, the ability to finish at the basket (like Kyle Lowry), and plays defense.
As for talent, no other team in America has as much talent 1 through 10. A team like Kentucky may have more talent in their starting 5, but they have no depth. Nova has what, 5 Micky D’s All American’s? And 3 on the bench? To say they have no sure fire NBA guys is a bit ridiculous considering pro scouts have been at almost every Nova game this year, and their numbers keep growing.
dan-
two counter points….
Pete, to retort:
1.) Chad Ford’s ranking are meaningless at this point in the year. That’s like saying NBAdraft.net is an accurate forecast of upcoming drafts. There is not a chance that there are 24 better pg’s, or 24 better pg prospects in college basketball right now. I personally think he stays to try and win a Championship next year, but wouldn’t be shocked if a team promises to select him in the first round.
2.) That’s a good point. As of right now they do not have a 2010 lottery pick. But I don’t think that’s needed this year. Kentucky may have two lottery pick’s but their youth will kill them come tourney time. Kansas may have one lottery pick (maybe two in Henry), but they’re slow, plodding, and can be exposed by quick guards. Syracuse has Wesley Johnson but they have zero depth and their zone can be beat by jump shooting. Scoop Jardine should have lost that game for them last night.
I do believe that the teams with the most future pros on their roster advance the farthest in March. Which is why when I look at Nova and see 5-6 guys who will most likely play in the NBA (albeit a few may just get a cup of coffee – ARay style) I like their chances. They’re great offensively, go 10 deep, and their defense is getting better as the year goes on i.e. When their shooting went cold in the second half of WV the other night they played lock-down D.
Cory Fisher is not getting drafted in the first round.
You have to also consider how the draft business works and the current climate of the NBA. Teams would likely pass on late first round draft choices right now to save money. So if I wanted Cory Fisher I’d trade out of the first round or use my 2nd round pick to grab him. There would be little threat of him going in the first.
I like Cory Fisher, but he isn’t a first round talent right now.
You have to consider all the undersized shooting guards as competition with Fisher as well. A lot of teams would take a more talented/productive player who isn’t a prototypical point guard. For example would a team take Fisher or Reynolds?
I tend to think Scottie is more of an undersized shooting guard who will need to develop into a scoring point guard in the NBA to be successful.
But I think for most teams it would be almost a no-brainer that they would take Scottie over Fisher.
Other guys are like Willie Warren, Avery Bradley, Elliot Williams, Jerome Dyson etc etc.