Nova Enters Big East Play:
What We Know, What We Don’t

The season really begins on Saturday.

After a relatively easy first 12 games of the year, the 11-1 Wildcats, currently ranked #8 in the country, open up Big East play against Marquette and will begin to find out whether or not a return trip to the Final Four is in the cards this year.

So after 12 games, what do we know about the Wildcats?

What We Know

• We have a very balanced scoring attack. Scottie Reynolds has averaged 21.8 ppg in his last 5 games on 55% shooting, but he is far from our only offensive option. 5 players are averaging over 10 ppg, and 8 players have scored 10 points in at least one game this year. Reynolds is the primary option, but there will be games where he can’t shoot a lick and we have plenty of options to back him up.
• We need help up front. Right now, our only true forwards are Antonio Pena and Maurice Sutton, and Sutton has had a really hard time staying on the court due to foul problems. We have been able to overcome this in the first 12 games primarily because we are playing lesser competition, but once the Big East schedule gets going, it’s going to be tougher to get by. Reggie Redding and Taylor King are absolutely going to have to “play big” in league play.
• Taylor King can play. King has been better than expected (for me at least) this season. He is shooting 48% from the field and 47% from 3 so far this season. But what has been a pleasant surprise is the energy his brings to the defensive end and the passing ability he has shown. He is much more of a complete player than I thought he would be, and might be the X-Factor for the Wildcats this season.
• The Freshman will play. Even with a crowded back court, both Maalik Wayns and Dominic Cheek have found their way into the rotation, averaging about 16 minutes per game each. Both have shown flashes but have plenty of room for improvement. Isaiah Armwood has also seen some time recently with fellow Frosh Mouphtaou Yarou out indefinitely.
• We are relying too much on the three. Nova currently ranks 1st in the Big East in 3-point baskets made per game (8.6) but ranks 90th in the NCAA is 3pt % (37.3%). To me, that adds up to inefficient basketball. It’s great to have the 3 in your arsenal, but relying on it turns you into a team like Notre Dame who can beat anybody or lose to anybody, but disappears come tournament time.

What We Don’t Know

• What is wrong with Corey Stokes? I was certain that this was going to be Stokes’ coming out party. We knew he could shoot, and he has shown flashes of a mid-range game, and with a scoring void left by Dante Cunningham and Dwayne Anderson, I thought he would step in a be a 17-20 ppg guy. Not only hasn’t he, but he’s playing much worse than last season. He is 6th on the team in scoring at 9.3 ppg and is shooting a very poor 35% from the field and 34% from 3. In 5 of the 12 games, he’s scored 5 points or less, something that should never happen with his level of talent. The last two games his minutes have dropped with the return of Reggie Redding, and if Taylor King continues his solid play, he might see less playing time.
• What will we get from Reggie Redding? Redding, one of the leaders of the team, has played like a man possessed in his first 2 games back from suspension. He’s averaged 15.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.0 steals in those 2 games while shooting 12 of 16 from the field. Obviously he won’t keep up that pace, but could he enjoy a Dante Cunningham type breakout in his senior year? Certainly not something I am expecting, but his first two games were very eye opening.
• Can Antonio Pena keep this up against the big guns? The most improved player this season has been Antonio Pena, who has gone from a 5 and 4 guy last year to a 13 and 9 guy this year. He is shooting a very impressive 59% from the floor and is averaging an impressive 1.2 steals per game for a big man. But here is the big question: Are his numbers a product of the competition we’ve faced, or truly a sign of an emerging Big East big man? I hope that Pena can stay aggressive and effective on the offensive end against better talent, and that will definitely be something to watch.
• How good is the rest of the Big East? This was supposed to be a down year for the league, and certainly it is down from last year, but while a lot of the top teams lost players, a lot of the lower-level teams are showing some promise. Entering Conference play, here is how I would rank them…

1. Syracuse – I didn’t see this coming. Syracuse has beaten 3 top-25 times, all by double digits, including a 87-71 beat down of UNC. They are shooting 55% as a team and their leading-scorer, Wesley Johnson, is being heralded as a top-5 NBA prospect.
2. Villanova – I think that Nova’s depth and discipline give them the edge over the Bob Huggins’ coached Mountaineers.
3. West Virginia – They haven’t beaten anyone of note, and their first Big East game was an overtime squeaker against Seton Hall. Devin Ebanks is the key to this team, and it’s hard to say where his head is at sometimes.
4. UConn – They are loaded with talent, but might not mesh until the end of the year. If Stanley Robinson plays with more consistency and Ater Majok can stay on the court, they might jump into #2 spot by Tourny Time.
5. Georgetown – Man is this team boring, but they do have arguably the most talented player in the league, Greg Monroe, and he’s starting to come into his own. They’ve beaten Temple, Butler and Washington.
6. Pittsburgh – Given all the players they lost, they have no business being any good this year. But I’m not betting against Jamie Dixon.
7. Seton Hall - Big improvement over last season after adding former 5-star recruit Herb Pope to go along with 22ppg scorer Jeremy Hazell.
8. Notre Dame – Their scorers don’t have the athleticism to create their own shots. Live and die by the 3, as always. One of the worst non-conference schedules I’ve ever seen. But they will score enough to finish around .500 in conference.
9. Cincinnati – 2 of their losses have come in OT, and their leading scorer, super-frosh Lance Stephenson, is starting to get comfortable.
10. Marquette – No more James and McNeal, but they still have Lazar Hayward, who is averaging 18 points and 7 boards a game.
11. South Florida – They were 5-7 entering conference play last year. This year they are 9-2 and boast an inside-outside combo of Augustus Gilcrest and Dominique Jones, each averaging over 18 ppg. No longer an easy W.
12. Louisville – Losses to UNLV, Charlotte and Western Carolina? They should probably be higher, but they have to show something first.
13. St. Johns – Beat Temple and gave Duke a run for their money. Another improving former doormat.
14. Rutgers – Mike Rosario can score, but not terribly efficiently.
15. Providence – Jamine Peterson (17 points, 10 boards a game) has emerged as their go-to player.
16. DePaul – 5 losses already, including American and something called Florida Gulf Coast.

December 28, 2009