There has never been a March Madness tournament (in it’s current form, since 1975) without a team representing Philadelphia. This year, the streak continues as both Villanova and Temple were in the field when the brackets were announced.
I thought that both teams should have been 3-seeds (as did many of the bracketologists), but the committee put Nova at a 2-seed despite losing 5 of their last 7, and put Temple at a 5-seed, despite winning their conference tournament and ranking 9th in the RPI.
Let’s take a preliminary look at how both teams’ paths to the Final Four look…
Villanova
Even with their recent poor play, it would be a shock and huge disappointment if Nova didn’t reach the Sweet 16 given the 3 teams in their way (Robert Morris, Richmond, St. Marys).
After that comes what I think is the biggest obstacle to Nova making a repeat appearance in the Final Four: Baylor. The Bears have the size down low to bother us and the athleticism to keep up with us. If they meet Nova in the Sweet 16, I think Nova’s run ends there.
If they don’t, or if Nova gets past them – the good fortune continues, as the #1 seed in Nova’s region is Duke – by far the weakest #1 seed, and a team that will either get knocked off before the Elite 8 or suffer a similar fate as last year, when Nova beat them 77-54 in the Sweet 16 last year.
After the way Nova had played the last couple weeks, I hadn’t even entertained the idea of them making a repeat appearance in the final four. But in getting a higher-than-deserved seed in a region with a weak #1 seed, they got a 2nd chance gift-wrapped and thrown in their lap. It’s up to them to take advantage of it.
Nova’s Chances
Lose in 1st round – 1%
Lose in 2nd round – 10%
Lose in Sweet 16 round – 55%
Lose in Elite 8 – 25%
Lose in Final Four – 5%
Lose in Championship – 3%
Win Title – 1%
Temple
So while Nova got unexpectedly hooked-up, Temple got a seriously raw deal. They won the A-10 regular season and tournament title. They beat Villanova, Seton Hall and Virgnia Tech out of conference, while only losing to Georgetown by one. They were 9th in the RPI (everyone else in the top-10 was either a 1,2 or 3 seed) and I think the quality wins A-10 teams had out of conference this year show that it was a quality conference to win.
But they are a 5-seed, so let’s talk about their road.
First off is a really tough Cornell team. This adds insult to injury for the Owls, as Cornell could very easily have been as high as a 10 seed. Their 4 losses on the year were to Kansas (a game they almost won), Syracuse, Seton Hall and Penn. They are like Dunphy’s Penn teams from the 90′s that always had a chance in the first round. Temple isn’t a dominant team, and they will need to play well to beat Cornell.
The 2nd round match-up would likely be Wisconsin. Frankly, I think this game would be about the same toughness as Cornell. It would also be a very even match-up, with the team that executes the best on that given day taking the game.
After that, barring an upset, the #1 seed Kentucky would await, and Temple would need a perfect game to beat them. They would give them a good fight though, as they have a good front court / back court balance just like the Wildcats.
If they win that game – all bets are off.
Temple’s Chances
Lose in 1st round – 30%
Lose in 2nd round – 30%
Lose in Sweet 16 round – 30%
Lose in Elite 8 – 7%
Lose in Final Four – 1%
Lose in Championship – 1%
Win Title – 1%
This is actually a great example of how much match-ups matter in the NCAA tourny. I think that Temple is probably a better team than Villanova right now, but since they got a bad draw, they have a smaller chance of advancing. Both teams have a good chance of making the Sweet 16, but might need some help to advance past then.
Nova was granted a second chance. i believe Jay Wright and Crew will capitalize on their #2 seed and make it to at least the sweet 16 , if and only if we can get by Baylor, which will be a tough task. i think there is a 65% chance that we could beat Duke. Obviously this is not the same Duke team we demolished last year. They have three viable big men in(Local product) out of Haddonfield Brian Zoubek, and the Plumlee brothers. but if we play well enough, which i think we can. We have a better shot to make it to the Final Four then alot of the other #2 seeds.
Haha Dannie.. its good to see you hating on Duke. All of you nova fans are oblivious if you just assume the same thing will happen if you even get to rematch duke (which you wont b/c richmond could beat you but i fully expect baylor too). First of all how could you even be confident about a team that has clearly been exposed by loosing 5 out of its last 7 games due to the fact they cant rebound.. have no effective big men…. arent shooting the ball that well.
Also Taylor King who I remember you claiming (and many nova fans) would be a different player under Coach Wright because he left the “prison” of coach K and Duke doesn’t seem to happy does he? The dude is a headcase who is causing internal problems because he parties too much and bitches about his playing time. Hasnt quite worked out has it? The saddest part is that he is actually the second leading rebounder on Nova.. which is all you need to know about Novas big men. Is he even gonna play in the tournament?
On to the actual matchup… nova doesn’t have Cunningham anymore which all nova fans seemed to wanna ignore when they got high as number 2 in the country but it looks pretty bad now doesn’t it. I mean really Dannie.. this is the tallest Duke team under Coach K .. with Zoubek 7 feet tall.. who has become a completely different player and is rebounding at a redciously high rate.. Lance Thomas who is the best defender in the ACC then you have the two plumlee brothers coming off the bench who are both 6-10 athletic big men.. and Mason hasn’t even scratched the surface of his potential. Whose gonna prevent duke from getting second chance points due to offensive rebounds.. Yarou? gimmie a breadk. You now have Singler playing small foward because of the big line-up and he is playing the best stretch of basketball of his career.. hes 6-8. Last year Duke didn’t even have a point guard now they have Schyer who is the most consistent player on Duke. If you wanna talk backcourts with scottie ” i shoot the ball to much” reynolds, stokes and fisher.. lemme remind you that Duke has highest scoring threesome with Singler Smith and Schyer. They have been silly consistent all year.. whereas Fisher Stokes and Cheek show up when they feel like it. I cant wait to see all of you disappointed.
Oh and Temple got flat out jobbed by the committee.. they play the toughest 12 seed and if they can get by that play a real good Wisconsin team. Temple has two less losses then Nova and beat them.. I don’t get it.
Must be sad when “by far the weakest number one seed” whoops your tar holes by 32. That is all.
I didn’t even mention the face that these two teams are going in complete opposite directions.. unlike last year
they play in the ACC, played 10 road games, and went 5-5 in those ten games the road. you’re talking them up like they’re going to win the tourni?? sorry i just don’t see it. not saying that Nova will but I wouldn’t be surprised if you see Baylor in the Final Four.
Very interesting that VU got lucky and TU didn’t.
Pete, you need to work on your numbers a little. “) The Duke game would be the highest likelihood of a loss, if your percetages are used. Out of 34% points left (55% used in the Baylor game+10 % in the Richmond + 1% from St Mary’s =66% used) , the Duke game was left with a 25 % chance of a loss. Judging by your post’s content I know you didnt portray VU losing 25 times out of 34 games played, although Chuck would have prob used those numbers if he posted. I dont mean to harp on % again, but for the final four game you insinitiated that Nova would lose 5 times out of the remaining 9 percetage times, whchis almost a 50/50 shot. Im pretty sure you or most others wouldnt leave Nova at those odds either.
The way you broke each part of the tourney done in probabilities was a good view.
It doesn’t matter how big Duke’s starting lineup is because they’re still softer than soft-serve ice cream. You know Duke should be scared if they have to face Villanova when even Dick Vitale is saying Nova will beat Duke if they match up.
joof-
good point. I wasn’t really thinking about match-ups in the %’s – more that I think there is about a 10% they make it to the Final Four. I also don’t think Duke will even make it to the Elite 8.
Yahoo Sports Article on Scottie, By Jason King
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=jn-reynolds031510&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Chuck – Pete wrote this post so he was “hating” on Duke. So your entire post seems kind of ridiculous at this point but I’ll address it anyway.
I think Duke IS the weakest #1 mainly because the other teams are simply better not because I don’t like Duke. (Cuse is a better all-around team and everyone but the committee thought that going in).
Duke has a tough 2nd round game having to play most likely Louisville (IMO). Their athleticism, pressure and balance is not a good match-up for Duke and I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see them lose that game.
I think Duke is better this year than last, mainly because they finally got some good play from their bigs. Sure they can beat Nova but I think you overrate Duke a bit. Duke is a slow team that lacks overall athletic players. So teams that can keep them in front and force contested perimeter shots and defensive rebound give them trouble. Nova is capable of doing that as a unit. And while Dukes bigs have played well they are purely rebounders, defenders and passers. Teams hurt Nova by pounding the ball inside. As much as Duke has a size mismatch I don’t see them dumping the ball down low to the big stiff 15 times in the game.
Also, they struggle with quick teams because the lateral quickness of most of their players is suspect, which is why Nova ran circles around them last year. I will say not having Dante hurts. Mainly because he was a big that can pull bigger, slower front court players away from the basket and that opens Nova’s offense up. Pena isn’t going to do that.
You’re WAY off-base if you legitimately think Richmond is that good. They aren’t AND they don’t necessarily match-up well against Nova. Their best player is an undersized scorer that Temple locked down. Those types of players can get hot (think American in last years tournament) but in the end that’s not how you beat Nova. Good teams with strong bigs are Nova’s weakness until they recruit some legit front court players. Richmond isn’t bringing that to the table. Nova will have 4 fresh guards to defend them. No worries at all there.
Ha I noticed the Mistake this morning but didnt have enogh time to post… I apologize to Both Pete and Dannie.. as I didn’t even look to see who wrote the post.. I just assumed it was you Dannie because you do the majority of basketball related posts.. so my apologies to the both of you. Another thing is im not sold on Duke… I actually think Louisville could beat Duke and I think Baylor will beat Duke. This post was more due to my frustration with what I perceived to be nova fan ignorance in regards to a potential Duke Nova rematch where everyone just assumes Nova will roll over them because of last years results when we all know year to year in college basketball a lot changes. My final 4 is Baylor WVU Kansas Syracuse with Kansas over WVU.
Dannie another thing is Taylor King.. do you guys know whats going on behind the scenes.. im just curious is its the same exact thing which happened with Duke.. which is that he partied to much and complained constantly about his playing time.
Another thing is what matchups are you most looking foward to? This could be first round matchups or matchups you see happening down the road. I know one im looking forward to is Temple Cornell.. the two most underseeded teams who I could both see taking down Wisconsin to make it to the sweet 16. Cornell is a very well coached smart basketball team as is Temple so it should be interesting. Also do you think Kentuckys inexperience will lead them to an early exit are do you think their talent will override all of that leading them to a deep run?
Chuck - All good.
I want to see
As for King I thought is energy was always there and he kept rebounding. He just went on a horrific shooting slump.
Thusdays games are going to be really fun to watch.
Does anyone think this yrs forwards (Pena, Mouph, King, Armstrong, Sutton) compare at all in quality to last years (Cunningham Clark, Pena)?
Also, how would you rate the forwards of VU’s past with this team? I have:
1) frasers team (even if he was one one leg bc he was awesome)
2) Last yrs Cunningham,Clark, Pena (seniors that grew and some depth)
3) This years a close 2nd. (Finally depth although they are severely lacking in experience)
4) The team when Cunnignham/Clark were juniors.
5) The team when Nardi was the 4th starter ha (Although a 4 guard man to man press is fun to watch.
Where do you grade next years forwards, if you had to now?
I was inspired to write this by an above comment on VU’s achilles heal being a good team with solid bigs.
Joof – I think it’s really really hard to compare mainly because Yarou didn’t get a full year to develop. Right now he should have a full year of college basketball in him and he only has half. He could be so much further along right now and really ready to have a big impact in the tourney.
The biggest difference is I thought Cunningham was just a more complete player than Pena. He could post you, turn and face and hit jumpers and cut to the basket well. He provided multiple options on pick and rolls. He was a good rebounding and defender too. Pena is solid inside and a good rebounder but he just isn’t as versatile.
They need King to make shots. His rebounding has been a surprise for me this season but he really slumped the end of the season. If he can get hot and Stokes keeps playing well the Cats will really be trouble because King is the big that can stretch the floor and open up driving lanes for the guards.