Editor’s Note: Bill Conlin wrote a piece on this subject a week or so ago. I don’t read Conlin, so if I am repeating anything he said, I apologize.
As the Phillies miraculously sit 2 1/2 games ahead of the Mets in NL East despite playing some of the worst baseball we have seen from them in several years, GM Ruben Amaro is all over the map looking for starting pitching and relief pitching to help our depleted staff. Obviously, any trade for a starter these days is going to take some of your better prospects. RHP Kyle Drabek and OF Dominic Brown appear to be the only untouchables at this point but I would implore Mr. Amaro to add Michael Taylor to that list. Here’s why:
1. Taylor has a chance to be a unique, and special player
Taylor’s size (6′6”, 250 lbs) would make you think that he is a stereotypical power hitter. However, his numbers indicate that he is a far better hitter than that. He’s ranks first, second or third in the Eastern League in 9 offensive categories. If you extrapolate out Taylor’s number over a 162 game season (he has played 71), they look like this:
Sure, the power numbers are there (32 HR, 125 RBI) but look at some of the others. How many guys with that run production can you think of that hit .340, with 30 SB, 9 3B and under 100 strikeouts? The answer? None. There has never been a player in baseball history that hit .340 with 30 HR, 125 RBI, 30 SB and 5 3B while striking out less than 100 times. Yes, that’s the majors and this is AA, obviously that is a huge factor. But you can still see that Taylor is unique in that, much like Albert Pujols, his power does not deter from his overall efficiency or his speed on the basepaths. He won’t be Pujols, no one will, but Pujols-lite isn’t something you’d turn away.
2. Our outfield is set-up perfectly right now
By this I mean that if we play our cards right, we won’t have a hole in, or have to overspend on, our outfield for many years. If we were to trade Werth this year or in the off-season, our outfield set-up would look like this for immediate future.
Right there you are looking at a seamless transition moving forward and that 2012 outfield is going to come pretty cheap, giving us room to spend our money in other areas. It might be tough to keep Brown in the minors until 2012 if he keeps progressing the way he has, but that will be a good problem to have. By 2011-12, it’s possible we’d have a bunch of young, cheap players on the team (Donald, Marson, Carrasco, Drabek, Brown, Taylor) giving us a chance to spend some money and continue to be very competitive after this current “3-year window” is closed.
3. Werth can net you a high-quality player
I love Jayson Werth and have nothing against him. But he’s 30, and I don’t forsee us re-signing him after the 2010 season. He’s a 5-tool player who has shown he can be productive (on pace for 34 HR, 97 RBI this season) in a full time role. Any team that need a starting outfield upgrade would be interested in trading for him. From the Phillies perspective, you can deal him, save some money short term and long term, and theoretically not lose production (perhaps even increase production) by bringing Taylor up, all while adding a key piece (starter or high-quality reliever) to your team. I would probably wait until after this season to make such a move, as that would be a lot of pressure to put on Taylor mid-season.
Final Thoughts
Obviously there is no guarantee that Michael Taylor will continue the growth and production he has shown the last 2 years, but in the MLB, young, cheap, productive players are the greatest asset an organization can have. Considering we won a World Series with a team full of homegrown players, we know this better than most teams. Taylor has shown nothing that would indicate that he will be anything different than Rollins, Utley and Howard once he reaches the majors. Meanwhile, we have a piece in Jayson Werth that could simultaneously improve our team while saving us money to use in other places. The Phillies have a chance to build a long-term contender past their current 3-year window, and as someone who doesn’t ever want to see a return to the doldrums of 1994-2006, I believe they should do everything they can to make smart decisions that will keep that window open.
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You “don’t read Conlin”?? Agree with him or not, he’s widely considered to be one of the greats of the business. In fact, you could learn a few things from him…
Nicely stated, Pete, and you made your point without any references to Hammurabi’s code, Alexander the Great’s defeat of the Persian Empire, or the Dutch tulip speculative bubble that burst in 1637 to do it.
I couldn’t agree more. With what they’ve got in the minors, the Phils have an opportunity that has been as rare as hen’s teeth for them throughtout their history, i.e. to have a championship caliber club for years to come founded on homegrown players. I will be furious if they screw it up for the likes of Brad Penny!
Pete, I agree with you 100%. Will be at the Reading Phillies game with my kids on July 18 and am crossing my fingers that Taylor will still be there.
It’s one thing when scouts heap praise on a player for “tremendous upside,” “high ceiling,” and “a ton of potential.” But when a player is actually performing up to that potential, even if its at the AA level, you’ve got to think long and hard before pulling the trigger on any deal. The only way I’d even consider it is if this was something that could get us Roy Halladay. And even then I’d still have a bad case of buyer’s remorse.
Ruben Amaro Jr.. if you’re reading this…
FOR THE LOVE OF RYNE SANDBERG, DO **NOT** TRADE MICHAEL TAYLOR!
Drolz
How come Taylor is in AA and not AAA?
And I need to see him in person. How can a 6′6″ 250 lb player steal 30 bases? Unreal.
TheRobTyson -
“And I need to see him in person. How can a 6?6? 250 lb player steal 30 bases? Unreal.”
TheRob-
Pete… Conlin thinks that bloggers are wannabe journalists who think that being a fan with some knowledge makes themselves worthy of being heard. It is apparent from the fact that you would use wikipedia as a source that he has a point.
Pete -
Good write up I couldn’t agree more. If we deal, trade Werth and some pitching(Carrasco, Savery, etc) and even Mayberry if we have to. We need to keep Taylor, Brown, Drabek and Knapp. And after the outing Happ had on Saturday hopefully we will finally get his name off the block too. Hes been arguably our best pitcher this year.
TRT-
Tim -
Pete, I’ll gladly post a follow-up after seeing Taylor play. Really looking forward to it.
Here’s a feature on him that was in the Washington Times a little more than a week ago:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/weblogs/national-pastime/2009/jun/18/prospect-qa-michael-taylor-phillies/
It’s a nice interview. I’d forgotten that Taylor is from Stanford so hopefully this makes fellow alum Amaro even more reluctant to deal him.
Reading actually had a day game today….
nice. Thanks Drolz!
Pete (Philly)
thanks for the chat. hearing anything about the Phillies search for pitching? We have no business being up 2 1/2 games right now.
Buster Olney
Pete — only that they’re looking, at a time when there’s very little quality available. If the Mariners decide to become sellers, then Jarrod Washburn might become the best pitcher on the market. Short of that, they’ll probably choose from the Carl Pavanos of the market.
Pete,
I agree with you that we should trade Werth in the offseason and let Taylor take his place next year but do you think that is what Amaro will do?
I know this is off topic, but do yall have any updates on Ibanez? I know hes eligible to be activated Friday but I haven’t heard anything. Im comin in from Texas for Friday’s game, hopin to see him in there for atleast a pinch hit appearance. Jimmy better get right too id be more than disappointed to see bruntlett in there my only visit to CBP this year.
Jurnee -
Really don’t know. Amaro hasn’t made enough moves for me to know what his general philosophy is about building a team.
I don’t think Taylor will be traded, but that’s because I don’t think any good starters are even going to be on the market.
What I fear right now is a Taylor for Bedard deal because I don’t think Bedard can handle Philly mentally, and I’ve already discussed what I think of Taylor.
Tim -
Haven’t heard anything on Ibanez. My guess here is that no news is good news and we will see him Friday.
I do hope they keep Mayberry up instead of Paul Bako.
drolz-
It’s definitely the smart play, Jurnee, so let’s hope. It’s a buy low-sell high scenario that makes too much sense to pass up, especially considering who is behind Werth. I mean, we’re not talking about making due with a Greg Golson or a Michael Bourn in Werth’s place.
Agree 100%. I am one that is very concern that we are going to see out the phuter on the alter of the immediate this year.
I would rather trade Werth than our minor league upcoming stars. He is my first choice of “outta here!”
Dear TheRobTyson,
You obviously spend your time commenting on blogs (see http://umpbump.com/press/2009/05/05/what-would-it-take-for-philly-fans-to-boo-ibanez/) as further evidence. If you don’t like what Pete says, don’t read it instead of criticizing him. He is much more knowledgeable than crabby newspapermen that he is replacing our time with reading.
If you never commented on here again, nobody would miss you dude. Get lost.
Tim….Here is an injury update on Ibanez from Andy Martino:
“Raul Ibanez was limping around the clubhouse during the weekend series in Toronto, and said that while he hoped to return from the DL Friday, he was not sure if that would be possible. An on-time return seems unlikely.”
That’s not good. While I’m at it, here are a couple more injury updates. First on Eyre:
“Scott Eyre, whose absence has demonstrated how important he is to the bullpen, will begin a rehab assignment tomorrow for the Gulf Coast Phillies in Clearwater, Fla.”
and on Bastardo:
“Antonio Bastardo has been placed on the 15-day DL with a left posterior shoulder strain. LHP Sergio Escalona, who is racking up enough frequent flyer miles for a nice offseason vacation, has once again been recalled from Lehigh Valley.”
Thanks Bski, I appreciate it. Is there some kind of limit on the amount of times we can call Sergio to the bigs and then send him right back down? At some point don’t we run out of options on him or something and either have to keep him in the big leagues or other teams can pick him up?
No problem, Tim. As far as Escalona and his options, I believe a player has 3 option years, not just 3 options, meaning that the Phils can bring Escalona up and send him back down as many times as they want for this entire season and it only counts as using one option year.
I found the following on baseballamerica.com:
How do options work?
When a player is added to a 40-man roster for the first time, the major league team is permitted three optional assignments of his contract, or three “option years.” This gives them the option to assign that player to the minor leagues without requiring him to clear waivers. For each season thereafter in which the player is assigned to a minor league team, one option is used up.
When a player is out of options, he can still be assigned to the minor leagues, but first he must clear waivers.
A player can receive a fourth option if he has less than five seasons of pro experience. Draftees who immediately sign a major league contract will qualify unless they reach the majors quickly and stick there. Otherwise, they’ll have their three options exhausted after their first three years in pro ball. A season is defined as any year in which the player spends 90 days on the active list. Short-season and Rookie leagues don’t last 90 calendar days, so a player assigned to those leagues for an entire year won’t accrue a season of pro experience. Also if a player has a long-term injury, he usually won’t be credited for a season that year. (The exception is if he goes on the disabled list after spending 60 days on an active list, in which case the DL time counts as service time.)
Thanks alot for the info, that makes more sense now. At the rate we have been calling up and sending players back down its a relief it works this way.
You can’t trade Werth until the off season after you see Taylor in AZ Fall League and part of AAA. Even then he should get an audition in MLB in September. Then you can think of trading Werth for a SP to replace Pappy Moyer or Myers. Werth is a steal at 4 or 5 mill that he will make, he could be traded for 3b help as well with Feliz contract expiring. He could be package with Madsen as well since Madesen is a Bora’s disciple and will be a FA in 2011.
well u say their future outfield is set then where is john mayberry in all this the guy has shown rpomise in the majors
Teach this kid to catch!