There has been a lot going on with the Phillies in the past month or so: The Lee trade, the Pedro signing, the Moyer demotion, the hot streak, etc… But lost in all these headlines (for the most part) is something that has become a huge problem for the Phillies – the performance of Brad Lidge.
At the beginning of the season, I said the 2 players most important to the Phillies’ repeat chances were Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge. Neither are performing well right now, but Lidge is the more troubling.
We all know Lidge’s story last year, and none will soon forget it. But to see him pitch this year makes you wonder how on earth it was possible he didn’t blow a save last year. Lidge has been historically horrendous. His 7.29 ERA is the worst in baseball history for a pitcher with 20+ saves. His 2.14 HR/9 is also the worst in baseball history. His 1.76 WHIP is the 6th worst (again, with 20+ saves).
It’s easy to just go by those numbers and say it’s not possible, but we always have to back it up with (more) numbers here, so let’s look at the closers for all the World Series champions this past decade and see if Lidge even comes close to any of them.
* Isringhausen was replaced by Adam Wainwright after his 10th blown save on September 6th
** Urbina was acquired in a mid-season trade from Texas. His numbers are for both Texas and Florida.
OK, so what can we learn from this?
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Every single closer had a regular season ERA under 3.00 except Isringhausen, who was replaced before the playoffs. Lidge’s ERA is about three times higher than than ’00-’08 average.
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Lidge’s H/9 and HR/9 are astronomical compared to the others.
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The blown save numbers were surprisingly high for me with the majority falling somewhere between 4-7.
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If you exclude Isringhausen and Jenks (who only saved 6 regular season games) from the SV% category, you are looking at an average of a 89% save conversion rate.
When I first put this together, I didn’t realize that Isringhausen had been removed (placed on DL) prior to the playoffs and was going to use him as an example of how we can repeat with Lidge if he just gets a little better. Looking at these numbers though, it is pretty clear that is going to be tough.
To think about it another way – Lidge saved 7 games and appeared in 9 for the Phillies during their 2008 postseason run. If the percentages (Sv %, Loss %) hold for his 2009 season, that means that were he to pitch in that many playoff games again, he would likely lose us (at least) 2 games in the playoffs. You can’t give away 2 postseason games and expect to go very far.
So – where do we go from here?
We’ve already put Lidge on the DL, we’ve already put him into mop-up duty so try to get him in a rhythm. Nothing has worked and 110 games into the season is a little too late to wait for someone to “snap out of it.” This is the time when if you haven’t turned it around, you probably won’t as many teams are now optioning players to AAA who have been awful all season (Chris Young of Arizona, Bill Hall and JJ Hardy of the Brewers and John Smoltz of the Red Sox, as examples).
The reason question is – do we have a viable alternative? Here are a couple to consider…
1. Brett Myers
Myers could be back in a couple of weeks, and if Lidge continues to struggle and Myers pitches well, there will be a lot of pressure to put him in the closer role. In 2007, Myers had 53.1 IP in relief with a 2.87 ERA and 21 saves. He gave up 46 hits and struck out 64. He is obviously a huge question mark coming back from injury, but if his velocity is there – he certainly has the experience to get it done.
2. Ryan Madson
Madson has been hit or miss this year. He has only given up runs in 10 of his 56 appearances, but 4 of those were blown saves. In his non-save situations, he’s sporting a 2.26 ERA. Perhaps he had some jitters initially being put in that closers role and would respond better a second time around.
3. Trade?
This doesn’t seem to be a viable option. The 2 closers that were on the block, Heath Bell and Chad Qualls, wouldn’t pass through waivers to get traded and they would be claimed before they got to the Phillies. David Weathers might have been an option, but he was traded to the Brewers.
4. Scott Mathieson
Here’s your out-of-the-box option. Obviously you would look to your minor league system, and the Phillies don’t have any sure-fire fire-ballers in their system. But, if the scouting reports I’ve heard are true, and Mathieson is really hitting 98 mph on his fastball, I think he’s worth a shot over Tyler Walker in the major league pen. Mathieson is coming off his 2nd Tommy John surgery, and has been pushed hard through the Phillies minor leagues in his return as a reliever this season. He’s gone from rookie league, to Clearwater to Reading in just 21 innings. In those innings, he’s only allowed 2 runs and 12 hits, while striking out 21. Bring him up, put him into some games in mop-up time, and see how he does. If he dominates, test him in tougher spots. He’s 25, has major league experience, and may or may not be throwing 98 mph. Maybe he gets lit up, or maybe he’s like Bobby Jenks or Joba Chamberlain and earns his way into a key role. I think it’s worth a shot.
Conclusion
Best case scenario for me (aside from Lidge suddenly dominating again and proving me wrong) is to have Myers come in a really pitch well enough to earn his former closer role back. He has experience, he was a big part of last year’s team and he has the mental make-up to do it. It would be another very tough choice for Manuel to demote Lidge after his season last year, but where do you draw the line? An 8.00 ERA? 10.00 ERA? It has to be somewhere, and I think that the worst ERA in baseball history with 20+ saves is a reasonable spot.
Madson was so good late last year in the setup role I am reluctant to pitch him anywhere else. My vote is for Myers too if he is healthy. If not, I am not opposed to seeing how Mathieson does….
like in basketball for so many years Don Nelson teams and Suns teams live by the 3 and died by the 3. like some analysts say the phillies live and die by the home run. what he did last year was heroic. i think, by all means not the most reasonable or smart thing, i think we should live or die by Lidge
Is Antonio Bastardo out for the year or will he be back this season? If he were healthy he had a good fastball that he could get by with as a closer.
My vote is for Myers if he can make it back and pitch well. If I remember correctly Papelbon, Jenks and K-Rod (as a set-up man) were all young fireballers who were in their rookie or maybe sophmore seasons. Joba, Wainwright and David Price were useful out of the pen even though they were naturally starters. Young guys with good stuff seem to thrive in the closers role from the get go pretty often. I wonder if the Phillies would consider giving Drabek a shot as a Sept call up and if he does well give him the job in the playoffs.
Good read. It’s a dicey situation, and I think Myers is the best solution.
Angelo,
I meant to get back to you on the previous thread last night. Even though Pete beat me to it, I’ll give you my response anyway.
I understand where you are coming from. In 2008, Lidge had one of those magical, lightning-in-a-bottle, career years and his perfection went a long way toward getting us a championship. In light of that, he does deserve the benefit of the doubt this year. Here’s the thing though, I believe he has gotten it. Thanks to the fact that we have been able to maintain a lead, albeit a fluctuating one, Lidge has been given every opportunity to get himself together.
How many other teams who are trying to win their division or make the playoffs would continue with a guy who is pitching this poorly? The bottom line is, how long can the doubts continue before the benefit is exhausted? Five months is long enough for me.
A ballclub-wide issue also arises in that we just bumped Moyer from the rotation. If we can single out one guy for subpar performance and replace him in an effort to get more out of the 5th spot in the rotation, why can’t we do it to another subpar performer who is killing us at the end of games? If we don’t, we’re sending mixed messages, aren’t we?
Finally, there is also the issue of Lidge’s recent history, which argues against him turning it around this year. This will be his 3rd poor season in the last 4 years, so it is very possible that 2008 was an outlier. There is a chance that he can get himself together over the winter and spring and be solid again in 2010 and I’m fine with giving him that opportunity. I just can’t go along with sticking by him and putting a championship run in 2009 at risk.
Pete and Dannie,
So I have been visiting your website regularly since I stumbled upon it during the sixers coaching search. I have been toying with the idea of starting a website of my own. I may have a few questions that you guys might be able to help me with. Would you guys mind helping me out?
Storminnrmn81 – We try to answer your questions and help best we can. Hit up the Contact Page and shoot us an email.
Just found an interesting article on dugoutcentral.com: An Uphill Battle For Last Year’s World Series Participants.
A few quotes that illustrate the thrust of the article with regard to the Phils:
If the Phillies hope to have any chance to win in October, Hamels and Lidge have a month and a half to figure out what’s wrong.
But the main problem for the Phillies is not just that their two best pitchers are struggling beyond recognition. The real problem is that they Phillies are going to ride them both to the end.
It’s do or die with Hamels and Lidge for the Phillies. It has to be.
Clearly the only answer for the Phillies lies within. Hamels and Lidge must get things straightened out because they’re not going anywhere, and without them, neither are the Phillies.
George Sherrill would have been a nice add at the deadline.
I say we go for history here and win a championship with statistically the worst closer of all-time just to prove that we can do it.
Charming prankster that he is, I bet Myers can’t wait to yahoo w/his boys again in the clubhouse. Brett is fire on the mountain. Closer’s comin’.
Pete - interesting analysis, as usual. If you expand your study of closers to recent playoff teams, you can find the mediocre Todd Jones for the 2006 AL Champ Tigers (37 saves but a 3.94 ERA with 6 blown saves and 9.8 H/9) and the amazingly bad Joe Borowski for the 2007 Indians (AL-leading 45 saves but 5.07 ERA, 8 blown saves, 1.43 WHIP, 10.6 H/9), who took the champion Red Sox to 7 games. So success is possible with a poor closer, but I’d be the first in line to say that I’d rather not have a poor closer.
Regarding possible alternatives, Madson is an interesting case. It may very well be that he didn’t have a “closer’s mentality” or was too nervous, as you suggest, but I would point out that most Phillies fans have written him off as a closer based on a very small sample size. He was a closer for 7 games, during which he went save (Mets), save (Mets), scoreless inning (struck out the side in the top of the 9th in a tie game, Red Sox), scoreless inning (Red Sox, finished non-save win), blown save (Jays), loss (Jays), blown save & loss (O’s). So it’s exactly 3 games that have cemented people’s opinions that Madson is not a closer. He struggled more in his familiar set-up role in two games against the Braves not long after, which may have strengthened those opinions.
Looking through Madson’s game log, some weird trends emerge. He’s given up multiple (2 or 3) runs 6 times, but he’s given up 1 run only 4 times. And as you point out, he’s given up 0 runs 46 times out of 56 appearances. In 8th inning save situations (“holds”), he’s 18 for 20. Overall, I’d say he’s been consistently good with several implosions thrown in (which tend to skew fans’ perceptions of him). One could fairly conclude that he doesn’t always handle adversity well (thus the implosions), but his stuff is good enough to “put up a 0″ most games. If the Phillies were to try him again at closer, I wouldn’t be disappointed (he couldn’t be any worse than Lidge, who has given up runs in 21 of 46 appearances).
Of the other alternatives, Myers would work for me, if he were the Myers of 2007. No one knows what his stuff will be like coming off the injury. One other possibility you didn’t mention: what about Chan Ho Park? His numbers as a reliever this year are excellent (2.57 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4+ K/BB). I tend to think Park is so valuable in his 6th/7th inning role (see last night’s game for a perfect example) that putting him at closer might be a waste. But if Cliff Lee pitches 8 and Park comes in in the 9th with a 1-run lead? That might still inspire more confidence than Lidge at this point.
“… I feel that Ruben parlayed [sic] to me that this situation wouldn’t happen …”
If Moyer’s gonna pompously (and insolently) gather reporters and speak (without return questions) when given news he doesn’t like, at least he could apply correct word usage. To wit: Moyer & agent parlayed WS fever and PR favor and starting pitching questions into a contract beyond his real value. What Ruben essentially conveyed to the 46 yr. old was $13 million for 2 years of playing service (talk about emotional decisions) in whatever role the organization deems fit, individual exceptionality not included, regardless of pre-signature patter. Word has it that the Jesuits and lay professors of the English Dept. at 54th & City Line Ave. are aghast over the dopey diction of one of their former students and that a repeal of the ‘ruler rapping on tabled knuckles’ legislative ban is under hurried discussion.
Cliff Lee: best Philly debut since Grace Kelly.
Or halfback Earl Gros (59 yard TD run, 1st offensive play, opening day vs. Giants, Franklin Field, 9/13/64).
J-Me Moyer: Terry Mulholland on prunes and a nap schedule.
Or the guy who throws a tepid wave to you in rowboat from passing yacht.
Yeah, it’s difficult to believe that Halladay could have done any better than Lee has so far, right? Now, how will Lee match up against the Dodgers? We’ll see. That’s down the road a piece, but so far so good.
Hey, ESPN just reported that Micheal Vick has signed a 2-year deal with the Eagles.
its funny how quickly Lidge went from stud to stuhhhh. i disagree though, i still think we can win with him. question is: win what? everyone’s thinking WS already like its guaranteed. playoffs is all about the bullpen collectively. if our other relievers are strong enough, we might just do it with the seemingly malfunctioning Lidge. i just have a feeling he’ll be allright. injury or whatever is bugging him.
no