Pedro Martinez a Phillie? Is this a good thing?

UPDATE: Pedro has signed. $1 million guaranteed, $1.5 million in incentives. He will likely be put on the DL immediately, and start a minor league rehab program. Expect to see him in August.

Jon Heyman is saying it is inevitable, Jayson Stark says he’s flying to Philly as I type. The writing appears to be on the wall, and Pedro Martinez will likely be donning the red pinstripes in the next couple days. So the question is – is this a good thing? In order to answer that question, I think we need to ask some other questions…

1. If Pedro can be helpful, why hasn’t anyone else signed him? It certainly appears the answer to this question is “money.” Pedro wanted a $5 million deal at the beginning of the year, and never backed down. He will likely take a pro-rated salary for a couple million, and the Phillies are one of only a few teams that have the ability to add payroll right now.
2. What kind of effect will he have on the clubhouse? While Pedro isn’t a bad clubhouse guy, he is different than the guys we have now. He’s loud, playful and demands the media’s attention. Will this distract our players, or will it take some pressure off them with all eyes on Pedro? I’m not sure, but I do know Gillick never made a move that would change the dynamic of this clubhouse.
3. What makes us think he’s better than Drew Carpenter, Carlos Carrasco or even Rodrigo Lopez? The Phillies have 3 viable options in the minors to take the 5th starter spot, but are instead choosing to put Pedro in that spot. They clearly think that Pedro can be better than those 3, and if he fails or gets hurt, they still have those guys to fall back on. The more the merrier, I guess.
4. What can we expect from Pedro? He had a 5.61 ERA last year, but was injured for most of that time. I think the best case scenario would be that he can pitch how he did in 2006, with a 4.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He claims that he feels as good as he has in awhile (of course he does) and he did look good in the WBC (6 scoreless innings for the Dominican) but I have some serious doubts as to whether he can keep up production over a full half-season.
5. Is it bad that I’m excited? As you can see, I have my doubts about this, and I really don’t see this working out how Ruben thinks it will. Pedro might have thrown 91 in a 3 inning simulated game, but he won’t be doing that over several 6 inning starts. This might be like watching Livan Hernandez throw a bunch of junk at hitter every start with varying results. However, I can’t help but be somewhat optimistic. I mean, this is Pedro Martinez. One of the best pitchers of all time. The guy who had, in my opinion, the single greatest pitching season in baseball history in 2000. He’s a super-duper-star unlike anyone on our team even though he hasn’t pitched in about a year. Like the move or not, there is no way you are missing his first start in pinstripes.

Here’s what I think will happen

I think we sign Pedro this week, and he puts together a couple good starts since his arm is so fresh right now. Around mid-August, I think his age and wear will catch up to him and he’ll start getting hit around and/or hurt and Carpenter or Lopez will take his spot in the rotation. The Phillies clearly have the money right now, so I’m OK with them taking this risk, I just don’t see it working out. Either way, it’ll certainly be interesting for the fans, and we can always hope Pedro can reinvent himself and help our push towards the playoffs.

What do you guys think?

I’m sure everyone has an opinion on this. Let’s hear it.

July 13, 2009