Alright, here is my updated mock draft. Of course, when you change even 1 pick, there is a trickle down effect and the whole thing gets turned around. No huge changes, but I will explain the changes below, many of which came from the information at the Orlando pre-draft camp.
Notes:
- The top 4 remained unchanged. The first change came at #5 where I replaced Anthony Randolph with Kevin Love. It appears as though Love is not really as bad an athlete as many GMs feared. He has the same vertical leap and bench press as Michael Beasley and was better than DJ Augustin, Jerryd Bayless and every big man except Beasley in the lane agility drill.
- Eric Gordon and O.J. Mayo are freak athletes. I could see Gordon going to the Sonics, but they need a PG more.
- I dropped Anthony Randolph a bit, and could drop him more. Usually being skinny doesn’t concern me, but Randolph checked in at 197 pounds. That’s almost 20 pounds less than Kevin Durant last year and only ONE pound more than Derrick Rose.
- Joe Alexander was also a freak at the combine, posting a 39 inch leap, putting up 185 lbs 24 times and out-sprinting everyone in the 3/4 court dash (2.99 seconds). This should be a slam dunk for the Bucks, who really need a SF, but who knows what they will actually do.
- In my last mock, I had DeAndre Jordan going to the Bobcats based on the premise that he was the “Dwight Howard type athlete” people had said. Apparently, he’s not. He had good measurables, but was not nearly as fluid and athletic as people had though. Added to that, the Bobcats new coach, Larry Brown, HATES projects, I have them taking D.J. Augustin with this pick, because Mr. Brown does love him some point guards.
- So now we start seeing the domino effect of a couple picks changing. Indiana picks up Russell Westbrook with Augustin off the board. The Kings take Jordan and think about moving Spencer Hawes over to PF, the Blazers take Brook Lopez as a decent insurance policy for Greg Oden, and Golden State, who doesn’t need any position in particular, takes the remaining player with the highest upside, Donte Green.
- I gave in and put Brandon Rush on the Suns, he would definitely be a good fit there.
- OK, so now I have Darrell Arthur falling to the Sixers. Why am I feeling he will drop a bit? There have already been questions about his assertiveness and his tendency to disapear at times, but he really didn’t impress at the combine. He is only 6-8 1/2” with shoes (Kansas listed him at 6′10”) and comes in at a VERY light 216 lbs. He was at the back end of all the drills with a 30 inch vertical, 12 reps of the 185 lb and one of the slower lane agility times. I don’t think this all adds up to him being a bad player in the NBA – we obviously saw he can play in National Championship games (20 pts, 10 rebs) – but it raises some doubts about how good he can be. I don’t think he would fill our need a PF for a couple years, but if the draft plays out the way I have it, you have to take him.
- As for the rest of the draft, I have Cavs hoping Chase Budinger is what Luke Jackson wasn’t, the Nuggets picking up a high-quality defensive guard in Mario Chalmers, keeping Bill Walker with the Sonics because they aren’t good enough to be picking based on need, and throwing Ante Tomic into the first round because he’s 7′2” and the Celtics don’t need any new players next year.
{ 23 comments… read them below or add one }
PETE: I’m back again with a question. In your Mock 2.0, you had Chalmers going at 27. You said you loved him, but taking him with our #16 was way too high. Now in Mock 3.0 you have Chalmers going at 20, which is not too much lower than 16. So I’ll ask again, why is it way out of line to take him at 16 if you truly love him so much? Keeping in mind everything you’ve just said about Arthur, you still think it would be better for us to take him if he falls to us than to “reach” with Chalmers?
Moved Chalmers up because I could Denver taking him given their need for a PG and good defense.
He doesn’t really fit in as well with us because we could really use a shooter/scorer at guard, not a defender.
What about Nathan Jawai? I like the upside of the huge Australian.
I would take Lopez or Hibbert before Arthur.
LLOYD: Let’s not start with Hibbert again, shall we? I keep having visions of Michael Olowakandi and Adonyl Foyle. Once in a while even Sharone Wright creeps in. I can’t take much more.
PETE: Sorry. I’ve got it now. I won’t pester you about it any more.
Man, Pete you really hate Brook Lopez haha. There is no WAY the Bobcats are not taking Brook Lopez if he is there at 9. They so desperately need any semblence of a ghost of a big men to tandem with Nazr in the paint so Okafor can play only the 4, I can’t possibly see them choosing anyone else here.
Said it once, will say it again: Brook Lopez is going to be Chris Kaman and Jeff Foster of this draft…the centers that everyone cries “bust” when he’s actually quite talented in the post. Lower ceiling then a lot of other guys, but definitely a safe pick, and a guy that has a classic, old school post game on the block. Love his work ethic too, and he seems like a great character guy.
I kinda see where you’re going with the Augustine pick there, but while Felton is in a make or break year, I certainly think he’s got a great shot, with full health and LB, at becoming the PG everyone thought he could be out of college. Felton really picked his game up from February – April and finally showed flashes of it all coming together. That said, certainly not a bad move to get a backup PG to groom in case he doesn’t work out. Especially because they have two shoot-first PG’s off the bench in Boykins and McGiness.
I like your change having Donte Green to G-State, that makes a lot of sense, he’d fit in well there. People are downplaying their future big man core…I think Brandon Wright will really be a nice player in another year or two…3/4/5 of Donte Green, Brandon Wright and Biedrins is big, versatile, and can score and defend a multitude of ways.
Still think Toronto and Cleveland would be morons not to pick CDR, I think Toronto needs a wing scorer a whole lot more then a defensive big man. They can get away with the Moon/ Nesterovic combo for now.
If Washington lands Speights, that’s a great pick for them. Ditto with R Hendrix to Bama (I have a man crush on Mr. Hendrix…talent wise I think he is a top 15 guy, but his height scares people off. Millsap with offense!).
Koufos to the Nets is an interesting move, I like that…although they might hesitate because they might not want to immediately gamble of Krystic 2.0. Chalmers would be a great pick for them here, if available…a Marcus Williams/Chalmers backcourt coming off the bench would make a great tandem.
Can’t see the Kings going De’Andre Jordan. They just chose Hawes as their Brad Miller clone project for last year, they’ll probably be picking a PF or backcourt help at that spot. I’m real curious to see if they back Beno as their future PG or not.
Thanks for the 3.0 Pete!
bski, you feel about Hibbert like I feel about Arthur. Yes, he scares me.
What about the sleeper, Jawai? Built like a truck and has a feel for the game.
Pete –
Well done. I think you are right on with Eric Gordon going to the Knicks, Walsh is an Indiana guy and supposedly loves him and has since he was a school boy. The big Aussie, Jawai, also could be a good fit with Boston, who seem to like stockpiling young bigs (Perkins, Powe, Big Baby) and could let him learn slow behind KG and them.
Dannie, I wanted to counter the argument for the need for a pure point guard, how I think you can win without a pure point, but you covered that in your exchange with Dave T (Bayless vs. Augustine)…
For the upcoming draft, I don’t think anyone projected to go in the Sixers’ range at #16 is a definite no-no. For example, take Hibbert. If the 4 years at Georgetown has polished him up and he can come in right away, then our starters are Sammy and stud PF/Smith/Evans, and the other team’s bench will have to go against Hibbert and Smith/Evans, which I would take against 90% of the benches in this league. Just don’t draft him touting him as our future center, that’ll blow up in their faces.
Can we get a player better than Hibbert? You say yes, and I agree, but that talent differential probably won’t lead to more wins. I think the most talented players we could get at #16 are the two Jayhawks (Rush, Arthur), but while both would could perform if given time, it could hurt us in another way.
Rush – Is Lou Williams mature enough to be able to share off-the-bench scorer duties with him? We won’t play Iggy less, and that reduces Willie’s and Rodney’s playing time. Can we even assume that Rush reduces Willie’s playing time, given how Mo likes to give Willie more minutes than he should? Does messing with Rodney’s sensitive soul mess up our one three-point threat? Drafting Rush would be stirring up a lot of drama in that locker room, and not having that drama is something good teams do. We definitely have to move someone in this case, and if we HAVE TO move someone, that puts us in a position of weakness, just like how I’m sure the Grizzlies are getting crap offers for Crittenton and Lowry.
About Arthur – to me, he doesn’t project as a future elite player. But if we got him what I think will happen is that he plays just well enough to lose in the playoffs, we’ll label him as untouchable, then we’ll lock him up, which will give you a future of LouWill, Iggy, Thad, Arthur, Sammy, which, given Mo’s coaching, wouldn’t be good enough to win a championship.
To get back to my point, I agree with most who say this draft is deep in that a lot of the late 1st round and early 2nd round guys can really contribute if developed and used the right way. And I think that would be the key – whoever we get, we have to develop and use the right way. Back to Augustin – I think if LouWill can accept the 6th man role, and, having size with Iggy and and Thad at the swingmen positions will make up for his diminuitiveness. But that assumption I made needs to happen – we’ve been telling LouWill we’re seeing him as our future point, and now we’re gonna call him into the office, and tell him, that after reviewing his performance, it ain’t gonna work – what kind of effect will that have? But then we could develop DJ as LouWill’s replacement as a super backup, but in that case, wouldn’t Mario Chalmers be the better choice for that role?
I hope the Sixers have smart people working these kinds of things out… Oh shoot, that’s right, they have Tony DiLeo, dang…
Sixersguy, a few things:
I sincerely doubt the Sixers have ever told Sweet Lou he is our “future point”. Any type of serious statement like that is never leaked to the media, and in turn to us…so I wouldn’t quite go out on a limb saying that. Smart managements in sports wouldn’t make definitive statements like that about players they aren’t sure about, it’ll only backfire. The one thing that’s been clear is that Mo Cheeks, Billy King and now Eddie have placed emphasis on is playing the young kids, getting them some PT, see what they can do, and make sure their games have improved. Doesn’t mean any promises have been given (and let’s pray they don’t see Lou as our future point, but as our future sparkplug off the bench).
Also…if B Rush was there and we did take him…I don’t think he and Lou would get into it, because Brandon Rush should be our starting SG. That’s what’s great about him, he’s a poised, confident college veteran, has a polished game, and can step in right away. If we can’t land a big man, I say why not roll the dice putting Rush at the two, and seeing how Iggy at the 3 and Thad playing the 4 work out. Thad’s 6′8 and it wouldn’t hurt for us to see how he’d handle a starting PF role for a bit.
That would mean Lou was our combo guard off the bench, we give him a very fair 4 year $15-16 million deal…and we’d have to keep one of Carney or Green and trade the other. I would love to have Lou + Carney as our guard/swingmen bench…that’s some serious offensive punch, shooting and athleticism, not to mention Carney’s defense. And despite the fact most of us don’t like him, Willie Green wouldn’t be that hard to move to a team that needed some bench scoring.
Also…with the Grizzlies, that is a HUGE luxury to have three very young, very talented, all potential starting PG’s. I doubt very much the Grizzlies are getting, nor would accept, a crappy offer for any one of them. It’s not a bad thing to have an influx of talent like that when it’s that obvious one of them has to be moved. If the Grizz don’t get an offer they like, then that means one of the players gets zilch PT, and sucks for that guy…but the Grizz can wait as long as they want for the right offer. I’m sure they will offer a combo deal around Crittenton or Lowry, + Mike Miller, or + Hakim Warrick.
I 100% agree about what you’re saying with logjams in general…I think logjams at positions are the most underrated reason that teams underachieve as well as players. It can kill a guy’s career to be paired with another equal talent at the same position; stats go down, whining starts in, trade value goes down, they don’t get a fair contract. But in the Sixers case…if we got Rush or another talented 2 guard, we’d just ship off either Green or Carney to give equal PT to all.
I also agree with your comment about Augustin, in that he’d work well with our roster because of the height of a possible Iguodala (6′7) and Thad Young (6′8) SG/SF combo.
About Hibbert…if I’m getting this right, I think you’re saying to draft him basically knowing we’re getting a potential solid backup center/rotation guy, filling that hole in our roster. I actually kinda like that thinking…it is really nice when you can say, “We’ve got this guy, he’ll get 15 minutes a game and fill his role”…and I think Hibbert could be that. But I’d argue: why waste a mid 1st round pick to shore up one more minor bench hole? I’d much rather wait till the 2nd round of next year, or make a tweak trade with the dozens of solid backup bigs floating out there in the NBA.
Also…we might already have that backup C on our roster…Herbert Hill Anyone that watched the Big East last year knows this guy is a total 2nd round gem and can ball. If he recovers nicely from surgery, he could be a real nice surprise for us. His game is very similar to former Temple/Sixer Marc Jackson…6′10 – 6′11, solid post game, great rebounder, plays tough.
The Sixers need a pure point guard. Andre Miller is 32 and would make a valuable trading chip. Ty Lawson is still on the board. Am I missing something here?
Jacob, I am a big UNC fan so I watched every game I could and I think Lawson should go back to college especially having missed a bunch of games and playing some at not 100% due to his ankle injury.
I think he needs to work on his shooting much more before he can be a viable option as a starting point guard in the NBA. I can just see teams backing off him to contain the penetration and baiting him to shoot. And at his size and the type of set shot he takes NBA defenders will be able to easily contest that shot as well. He has no ability to shoot off the dribble at all. And I wonder if he can finish at the basket in the NBA.
Its been said he will go back to college if he isn’t projected/guaranteed to be drafted in the top 20, right now he is right on the cusp maybe going to Denver. If he doesn’t have strong individual workouts I think he goes back to school to further improve and prove his offensive game, defensive consistency and ability to log more minutes (only a 25mpg player in two years at UNC).
You’re probably right… the last thing the Sixers need is another guy who can’t shoot
Totally with you Dannie…I don’t get at all why Ty is making himself eligible. Guys like him and Ron Steele, that have had injuries, should be automatic to return for a full year to prove to the NBA world what they are capable of when healthy.
Aside from his total wildly inconsistent shot that you pointed out, the rest of his game is inconsistent as well. Right now I see him as an ultra talented athlete, that has all the tools and skills to become a great PG, that just needs another year under his belt to hone his actual PG skills. I’m not at all convinced he’d be able to run an NBA team at this point…he needs to prove himself more.
Lawson is a stud. As a huge Heels fan I hope and pray he, Ellington and Green all come back to the Dean Dome. Having watched almost every game and minute of his college career, he is an exceedingly rare player – a pass-first PG who creates for those around him. His jumper isn’t there yet but for his size he finishes at the rim. If he goes back to school you lose him, bottom line. If you are a Sixers fan, and I’m not, don’t get me wrong, you better damn sure take him this year, let him work against Miller all year and then give him the keys to the offense and make him a huge piece of the future. If I were a Sixers fan, I would be happy long-term with Lou at the 2 and Lawson at the point. The DUI yesterday might hurt his character issues and cause him to rethink and go back…but thats just me a wildly innappropriate Heels fan, rationalizing.
Ian – I am a huge UNC fans as well and there is a reason why Lawson isn’t projected earlier than 20. And from what I understand if he doesn’t feel confident he will drafted in the top 20-25 range he will go back. Green shouldn’t have even declared and I think Ellington will go back as well because he didn’t fair all that well in Orlando. He will need great team workouts to be a first rounder at this point. All three guys are not ready to be contributing NBA players yet.
Lou Williams and Lawson as a starter NBA backcourt is way too small defensively and not good enough shooting the ball. I would play zone against that starting backcourt all game.
Pete- last week you said you couldnt see chalmers going to denver even though he was a position of need and would automatically improve there defense. your reason was that one player wouldnt make a difference on a team like denver. i just want to know what changed your mind.
also, its been rumored that the grizz have had trade talks with miami. the deal would look something like this.
Memphis gets:
#2 pick in draft with mark blount or
marcus banks.
Miami gets:
mike miller and kyle lowry.
could you see this deal going through.
Dannie- being a college basketball fan and a total realist, i agree that lawson should go back to college. unlike everyone els, i dont think it will greatly effect his draft stock. even if he does go back he will only be the 4th or 5th best point gaurd in next years class and would most likeley go between 12 and 20. i think if he went back he would become a better player but in my opinion he would still only be a mid 1st round prospect. there just isnt that much potential for a 5-11 gaurd (or shorter) who cant really shoot. i think he will be a bench player or a starter on a bad team at best.
everyone- rasheed wallace might be traded before the start of next season. im just interested in what the philly faithful would be willing to give up, and if you would even want him on your team. remember, his contract is up after the season.
one more thing. i dont understand why portland would take lopez when they have oden and pryzbylla. a guy like green would make much more sense since they could use an athletic scoring SF.
once again, seattle would be crazy to take another SF since they are already overloaded there. also i just cant see CDR lasting that long.
Brent – I am going to do a open discussion post regarding the Rasheed Wallace whispers this week so if you can hold that thought for a couple days.
Brent I agree with your Portland comment. They already have their starting frontcourt for the next decade anchored with Oden and Aldridge, and have two great backup bigs to plug in at PF and C with Channing Frye and Pryzbilla. Last year they also drafted McRoberts at PF, and while I can’t stand Josh, that was a savvy 2nd round pick to maybe see if he develops all the talent he has someday and grows a pair of testicles to actually use it. Just doesn’t make sense to take Brook…plus, as I’ve said before, I just can’t see Lopez not being taken by Bobcats at 9 or Nets at 10 if he falls that far.
That team is ridiculously set for next year. Oden coming back, Brandon Roy will be healthy, the youngins (Outlaw, Webster, J Jack) all a year more experience, and Rudy Fernandez officially declared he’s coming over, and should have a huge impact at the SF position to give some scoring and energy. It’s scary that Portland and the Clips (if Brand stays) will just add to the bloodbath that will be an even more improved Western Conference next year.
One last comment: I think JJ Hickson is really not being talked about enough. Like Chase Budinger, Ty Lawson, Bill Walker and some others people have mentioned, if JJ Hickson did return to school, he’d probably be an automatic lottery pick next year. He’s a solid 6′9, a great physical presence, and has a great post game. Any team that drafts McGee, Hibbert and Robin Lopez will regret not taking this guy.
I think a big part of the reason the Sixers nabbed Thad Young when they did, and the Hornets Julian Wright, is because both teams were aware that they would easily be top 5-6 picks the next year, and just jumped the gun and went for the talent early. It’s a gamble, but probably one teams should do more often instead of turning to European stiffs that have barely played in their Premier Leagues, or college stiffs whose stock’s surge because of a four day predraft camp or team workout.
SIXERZGUY: Just in case you haven’t already heard, the Sixers just extended Tony DiLeo and Courtney Witte. I know you’ll be pleased.
Courtney Witte, he’s only been in a position of influence for a short time, I don’t have a problem with him yet. But DiLeo, he didn’t deserve that attention, he must be a real kiss-butt, or very charming…
I think sports should be considered just like any other company – if you don’t get results, you should get fired or demoted. I think it’s unfair that only the GM gets canned if things go wrong.
A GM can only do so much by himself – he gets lots of support from people under him, right? Well what if his (or her) support staff does shoddy work, and the GM makes several moves based off that? Does getting rid of the GM solve the fact that foundation of the decision-making process is crappy? No! GET RID OF WHEREVER THE PROBLEMS ARE COMING FROM! Tony DiLeo has been part of that crappy foundation for 10 years now. I don’t know how a team’s failures can be put on some people and not others, when everyone should equally shoulder the blame.
Also, sports isn’t rocket science, it makes me wonder why there’s so much ineptitude out there. I think it’s because raw intelligence isn’t being taken into account when it comes to hiring for sports management, and that too much is based on someone’s experience. Yes, I’m saying that DiLeo just isn’t smart enough.
Another example, why is Kevin McHale fit to run the Timberwolves? What had he done, management or problem-solving-wise, to deserve his job? Having a low-post game qualifies you to make hundred-million-dollar decisions? Where’s the logic in that?
I bet that if you took all of these NBA management guys, and put them in the real world, the ones who would be successful are the ones who are succeeding now – Phil Jackson, Popovich, Larry Brown, Rod Thorn, etc. Also, those guys keep winning and winning. So why do we extend a guy who’s been mostly a loser? The Sixers are not committed to winning a championship, just making money…
SIXERZGUY: Here’s what ES said about DiLeo and Witte:
“I knew of Tony and Courtney and respected them, but I had never worked with them,” Stefanski said. “To me, coming in and making changes for the sake of making changes didn’t make sense. What I found is, they’re excellent evaluators of talent, they’re loyal and good people and I feel very comfortable with both of them.”
Does this make you question what kind of job ES will do for us? If he thinks well enough of them to extend and keep them, maybe they’re not as bad as you think. I will apply the same reasoning to Cheeks as well. Apparently ES would have been allowed to clean house if he felt it was necessary. Maybe the fact that he has not means something about the quality of the people we have.