OK - so this is clearly the most confusing draft of all time. Chad Ford said it best, so I’m not going to try to say it better:
Every team I speak with says the same thing: This is one of the most difficult drafts ever to predict. Different teams are coming to wildly different conclusions on the same players. Agents are insisting that their players are going higher than others project. Last-minute workouts and trade talks are still changing the landscape dramatically.
So below you will find my 6th, and probably final, mock draft. It is a combination of all the rumors floating around out there and what I personally think the teams should do. Considering how crazy this draft is, it’s as good a guess as anyone’s.
OK…let’s see if we can sort this all out…
- The first 3 picks remain unchanged. Though all signs are pointing towards the Heat making a trade with the Grizzlies (either Mike Miller, Kyle Lowry and #5 for #2 and a player OR Mike Conley Jr. and #5 for #2 and Daequan Cook).
- The first big change is Brook Lopez going #4 to the Sonics. Up until this week, everything I’ve read had them taking a guard here, but both draftexpress.com and Andy Katz of ESPN are saying that multiple sources have told them they will take Lopez. It makes sense because they need a center, but as I’ve said many times, you shouldn’t draft for need in the NBA. With Eric Gordon and Jerryd Bayless on the board here, you can’t take Lopez, who I think will be an average NBA center.
- This drops Bayless into the Knicks lap. I can tell you right now, if Bayless and Gordon are still on the board here, and the Knicks draft Danilo Gallinari, NYC is going to look a lot like those previews for The Happening with expressionless people wondering aimlessly down the street, sticking sewing needles into their necks and hurling themselves off of buildings.
- Eric Gordon to the Clips. It’s really a toss up between him and Russell Westbrook, but I used my personal judgment here and gave them Gordon because at a younger age he led the Big 10 in scoring while injured and Westbrook didn’t even start for his own college team.
- Westbrook to the Bobcats. I’m not saying he will be bad, but he has 2 red flags for me. He didn’t start on his college team and the knock on him is that he can’t shoot. When you tell me a player can’t shoot, you are telling me his ceiling is a role player.
- Gallinari replaces Anthony Randolph as the Nets pick because apparently Randolph’s skill can’t overcome the fact that he appears to not have eaten in a month or so. Also, everyone is reporting that Gallinari will go to one of the 2 NY area teams.
- Mario Chalmers rises up the board as he continues to impress in workouts. When we starting writing about the draft, Dannie wanted the Sixers to take Chalmers, and I wanted them to take Brandon Rush. At the time, they both looked like reaches. Now, it looks like they will both be off the board. God we’re smart.
- I’m sticking with J.J. Hickson as the Sixers pick. Essentially, if the draft plays out this way, I have a 1 in 7 chance of being right. I’m going with Hickson because he’s doesn’t have anything in particular I’m concerned about and he would be a good fit in our system. The other players all have red flags for me.
Speights - Motivation and Attitude. Arthur - Size. Ajinca, Jordan, McGee - Offensive game. Greene - Toughness and a tweener.
I will always give any player we draft the benefit of the doubt, but I’m rooting for Hickson on draft day. If Koufos is there, I’d be OK with him as well. He’s 7-feet, has a 38 inch vert and can drain the 3 - consider me intrigued. Actually, I might as well get on the record and rank the 9 players we put on our poll yesterday.
- J.J. Hickson
- Kosta Koufos
- Marresse Speights
- Darrell Arthur
- Alexis Ajinca
- D’Andre Jordan
- Donte Greene
- Jason Thompson
- JaVale McGee
- Donte Greene in Cleveland would be very interesting. He’s extremely talented and can really shoot the ball.
- D’Andre Jordan falls all the way to #25 after starting the year seemingly as a sure fire top 5 pick.
- Immediately after I said some good things about JaVale McGee, he got showed up in nearly every workout he went to and is now the person I would least like to see the Sixers take at #16.
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10 comments ↓
God save us from D’Andre Jordan and JaVale McGee… I’m terrified of the sixers drafting either one of those guys. This draft is pretty crazy, wish we had that second round pick…
Some random thoughts:
Dannie, just wanted to say I agree with what you said about Derrick Rose in your other post, and it seems people like us that have some “anti-Rose” sentiments are in the minority. I think he should be the #1 pick, but I’m not feeling everyone on the whole “he will be Chris Paul!” thing…yet.
For all the babble about his “pure PG play”…he looked an awful lot like a drive it took the hole, look to score first type of guard. Granted I’ll admit that Calipari structured Memphis’ offense that way…I almost feel in his one year Rose didn’t really get a chance to “run” the team, as the offense was predicated on all perimeter guys slashing to the bucket on a whim and getting to the FT line, or kicking it out for shots.
I think a lot of Rose’s game has been hyped to the point that everyone has bought in and stopped actually looking at his game. He’s going to be one hell of a player, and I think he COULD be a J-Kidd/Chris Paul type guy…but I’m just as convinced he could be a very good, but not amazing, PG in the NBA. That said…he is one of the most mature 19 year old athletes I’ve ever seen, is a ridiculous worker, a natural leader, and loves the team aspect of the game. He’s got all the tools…I just haven’t seen him use them yet in his one season at Memphis. I can see him meeting the hype, but wouldn’t bet my life on it.
I think the most “ready for the NBA right now” guys in this draft aside from Rose/Beasley are Mayo & Gordon…and I think what will make/break Mayo’s career is him landing in the right situation.
I’m real curious to see how Love & B Lopez, will turn out in the NBA. Not sure why people place the “ceiling” label on Love and Brook Lopez, when they are both freshman and sophs and have just as much room for upside as the guards do. In fact I’d argue guys like Love and Lopez, because they’ve concentrated on mastering fundamentals so much and understand the importance of discipline, have a higher ceiling for improvement on their already solid games.
I think by far the most overrated person that will go lottery is Westbrook. I can’t believe scouts are just nutting all over this guy when he played well for only half of a season. He’s 6′3, will have to play PG, is not a true PG in any sense of the word…and I know he has great D and athleticism, bla bla all these guys do…but you don’t draft a guy to be your future PG when he is half decent at it now. This guys is a 6th - 8th man on an NBA rotation, and anyone that passes up DJ Augustin for Westbrook and his potential will regret it.
PETE: I know I promised to stop pestering you about Chalmers, but……You did keep telling me that #16 was way to high for him every time I asked why shouldn’t we take him there. Anyway, we’ll find out Thursday, right?
bski-
early on I was just making my best educated guess about where people would go. but chalmers has really impressed in his workouts and is thus rising up people’s draft boards. chad ford has him at #12 to the kings, others have him at #15 to the suns. right now my mock is based on what im reading from the various outlets of inside info.
if you remember i actually had him higher than most first mocks did - when he was a borderline first-rounder. you wanted to pull him up even higher, and it looks as though you were right.
PETE: I’m just busting your chops, nothing more. We’ll see who’s “right ” on Thursday. I don’t get caught up in where a guy “should” be picked. My only concern is getting the best player for us. Anyway, it usually takes a couple years before everyone knows whether or not they made the “right ” pick for themselves.
Augustin - (at best) career backup PG
Westbrook - (at best) potential all-star wing who dominates on both sides of the court
This has gotta be a good thing, from sixers.com, on the workouts today:
“At the gym working out this morning for the Sixers were ANDRE IGUODALA, Lou Williams, Rodney Carney, Thaddeus Young, Jason Smith and Herb Hill.”
Next season is Iggy’s 5th in the league, and he’s still working out with the young guys? I like it, I think he’s trying to establish himself as the leader of the young Sixers, trying to keep the core close. A fun stat from 82games.com - in terms of +/-, those 5 (no Herb Hill) was our best lineup, and allowed a meager 0.85 points per possession.
Also from sixers.com, “Catchin’ Up with Jason Smith”:
‘I [went back to Colorado] for about two and a half weeks,” said Smith. “Last week I went to Georgia to work out with Lou Williams and Thaddeus [Young] and Rodney [Carney] and we worked out with Mark Price. Then we came back on Saturday to work out up here in Philly.’
Raro, I’m with you completely. McGee & De’Andre are the top two inductees to my 1st Team All “Has-Me-Terrified-the-Sixers-will-pick-them” group. Rounding out my first team:
-Alex Ajinca
-Robin Lopez
-Donte Green
We draft any of these guys, I’m hitting whatever object is next to me repeatedly.
Sikdar…agree to disagree about Westbrook. I just think it’s such a repeated mistake in the NBA to go for “athletes” whose basketball talent is not nearly up to par with their physical ability yet.
I like the guy, I just don’t see how being a 6′3 athletic defensive stopper and slasher has everyone up in arms. He has no position in the NBA, and is not nearly on the level of an Eric Gordon or Monte Ellis where they could be a legit SG for that size. I don’t think he proved last year he is a true NBA PG in the making…maybe he could be someday, but for me, too much of a gamble for a top 10 pick. I think he’d make a great Lou Williams/Leandro Barbosa type guy though, with far superior D.
I can’t stop reading about the NBA Draft, someone stop me, I can’t believe it’s almost 11PM…
Here’s the Charlotte Bobcats workout with Roy Hibbert, Alexis Ajinca, Javale McGee and DeAndre Jordan… Pay attention to Hibbert, it doesn’t look him at all, he’s not so slow… But I wonder how tired he was after the workout, and how long can he play at the speed he’s showing:
http://www.nba.com/bobcats/video_draft_workouts_080613.html
Don’t worry Zack, I was up until 12:30 watching “Destination NBA Draft 2008″ and writing my first and only NBA Mock Draft last night. You are not alone.
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