On deck, the letter D?

Reading this,  Ruben Amaro Jr. said righthander Carlos Carrasco is still technically competing for the fifth spot in the rotation. “But more than anything else, I think this is a great learning experience for him,” he added.,  confirms what we already knew about Carrasco’s chances and that it really has been a two-man competition for a while now.

Regarding that two-man competition, Park pitched well again yesterday, and I’m really starting to wonder if he might get the nod over Happ.  Reading stuff like this,  Amaro said he couldn’t rule out Happ in the bullpen, especially since the Phillies used him in that role in the postseason last year. He also pointed out that the situation is “fluid” and that the roles Park and Happ have when the season opens isn’t necessarily the one they’ll have all year., kind of concerns me.  If anyone is going to be moved back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen, I’d  prefer it to be Park.  If Happ does not get the 5th spot, I would rather see him go to AAA, remain a starter, and be ready to step into our rotation when needed.

One last thing.  Recently demoted Kyle Kendrick has surfaced in a Ken Rosenthal rumor:

“The Rockies often are criticized by rival executives for asking too much for their players in trades, but they figure to make a move with with utility man Jeff Baker, who is out of minor-league options and drawing interest from the Phillies, Astros and Pirates.
One possible target for the Rox: Phillies right-hander Kyle Kendrick, who was demoted to Class AAA on Monday. Kendrick, for all his faults, has won 21 games the past two seasons — as many as Rockies lefty Jeff Francis, who was hampered last season by shoulder trouble and recently underwent surgery.
Baker, who plays first, second, third and the outfield corners, would fill the Phillies’ need for a right-handed bat off the bench. The problem for the Phillies is that they would not have an available roster spot unless they traded one of their left-handed hitting reserves, Geoff Jenkins or Matt Stairs.”
It certainly would seem that the Phils are not all that confidant that Kendrick will be able to add the necesary pitch(es) to make him an effective big league pitcher, as per Dubee’s pleas, admonitions, heart-to-heart talks, etc….

I don’t have the time to keep on top of it the way I would like to.  I’d miss out on picking up players or I’d start guys who were out of their team’s lineup due to illness or something because I was unable to check in and get the latest info.  Baseball seems like it would be a lot more involved than basketball, so I don’t know that I’d do all that well with it.  Then I’d be ticked that my team was doing lousy.

Actually, the exact opposite is true.  It drives me nuts that guys are throwing fewer and fewer innings because it can be done.  I think the problem is that it is not approached the correct way. 

I find it curious that the standard approach throughout all of baseball is to “protect” players on one hand by limiting them to 100 pitches per start while simultaneously disregarding (or at least not taking into great enough account) the number of innings they throw from one season to the next.  It makes no sense.

I think that allowing a large increase in the workload (innings pitched) of one top pitching  prospect after another ends up being counterproductive in the long run.  These guys end up with more injuries which results in a rebound effect of increased protectionism on the part of the ballclubs.

I really believe that if everyone followed the gradual approach with regard to increasing innings pitched from one year to the next (140, 160, 180, 200, etc…) from the day these kids arrive in the minors, we would actually have more pitchers throwing 200+ innings, their yearly totals would be higher (230 innings vs 205), and they would be able to do it more consistently as a result of being healthier (or breaking down less).

I realize there are many factors—–money (both because of what the top minor league prospects are signed for as well as the big paydays at the major league level), the number of years an organization holds a player’s exclusive rights, etc…——that conspire to push things in the opposite direction,  that of acceleration.  Because of this, the accepted approach may never be as gradual as necessary.

Again, I find the running analogy to be very appropriate.  Pitching is an endurance activity that requires strength and stamina just like running does, and with regard to running, I know whereof I speak.  All I know is that if I can run marathons, there is no reason that these highly trained athletes can’t consistently throw 200+ innings and remain healthy.  They just need to go about it more intelligently (and gradually).

I liked the Salisbury piece, he does a good job of scaring the crap out of you.  I started imagining Hamels throwing the first pitch in that Atlanta game, and then immediately grabbing that elbow and rubbing it a little, followed by everyone in Citizens Bank Park turning catatonic all at the same time.

Anyway, I think the answer is obvious – let him rest another month to make up for the postseason work.  It’s not like they come out like gangbusters every April anyway…

One last thing – are you part of some sort of baseball fantasy league?  I think I’d be up for that.  I was thinking of using Pete’s MLB previews as some sort of guide for picking players.

The analogy with running is a very good one.  I run and I can tell you that you need to increase your training gradually.  The general recommendation is that you do not increase your weekly mileage by more than 10% from one week to the next. 

I believe that the percentage increase more important than the straight number.  I don’t know that 10% would be the correct percentage for pitching, but I don’t think it’s too far off.  Take Hamels for example.  He threw 183 1/3 regular season innings and 6 2/3 playoff innings in 2007 for a total of 190.  Well, 10% of that would be 19 innings which is below the danger zone.  As it stands, Hamels has had a 58 inning increase from 2006 to 2007 and a 71 inning increase from 2007 to 2008.  That scares me.

The other thing is that us winning the championship meant that Hamels pitched an extra month and as a result ended up with one less month to recover.  Rest is a very important component in training, probably more important than the workouts you do to gain strength and stamina.  Rest is where your body builds itself back up after the stress of a workout.  Too many people get caught up in the “more is better” mentality.  If 6 miles is good, then 10 miles is better.  If lifting every other day is good, then lifting every day is better.  If training once a day is good, then training twice a day is better.  Many people keep pushing and pushing and end up breaking down.  In essence, it’s your body’s way of  forcing you, through an injury that shuts you down,  to get the rest that you will not take on your own.

I don’t know if it’s ever a good idea to increase your workload by a lot.  When you’re young, you can cause a lot of damage to a still-maturing body and when you get older, like myself,  you can cause a lot more damage to a body in decline.  Gradual increases (yielding  gradual stresses that the body has a better chance of withstanding) really is the way to go.  That way you can build strength and stamina while suffering a lot less injury, pain, and suffering.

How many innings is considered a lot?
If he needed a break, how long would he need?
How many pitchers recover from this Verducci effect?
At what age is it okay to increase the inning workload by more than 30 innings?