Despite a shaky series against the Mets, the Phillies clinched a playoff spot and the magic number in their division is 1, and for homefield throughout the playoffs is 2.
Obviously the Phillies want homefield throughout the playoffs, but history tells us that might not dictate future success. Let’s take a look at how the teams with the best records in the AL and NL have fared since 2000.
Best Record in AL/NL since 2000
AL
2009- Yankees, 103-59 (won WS)
2008 – LA Angels, 100-62 (lost in ALDS)
2007 – Cleveland, 97-66 (lost in ALCS)
2006 – Yankees, 97-65 (lost in ALDS)
2005 – White Sox, 99-63 (won WS)
2004 – Yankees, 101-61 (lost in ALCS)
2003 – Yankees, 101-61 (lost in WS)
2002 – Yankees, 103-58 (lost in ALDS)
2001 – Mariners, 116-46 (lost in ALCS)
2000 – White Sox, 95-67 (lost in ALDS)
NL
2009 – Dodgers, 95-67 (lost in NLCS)
2008 – Cubs, 97-64 (lost in NLDS)
2007 – Arizona, 90-72 (lost in NLCS)
2006 – Mets, 97-65 (lost in NLCS)
2005 – Cardinals, 100-62 (lost in NLCS)
2004 – Cardinals, 105-57 (lost in WS)
2003 – Braves, 101-61 (lost in NLDS)
2002 – Braves, 101-59 (lost in NLDS)
2001 – Astros, 93-69 (lost in NLDS)
2000- Giants, 97-65 (lost in NLDS)
Here’s the breakdown…
10% won the World Series
10% lost in the World Series
35% lost in LCS
45% lost in the first round
So nearly 50% of the teams with the best record in their league lost in the first round of the playoffs. Only 2 teams won the World Series and 80% of the teams failed to win the pennant. The last time the NL team with the best record won the World Series was the Braves in 1995.
Why am I pointing this out? Because I get the feeling that people (read: newspaper and radio people) will judge the Phillies season as a failure if we don’t win the pennant again, or maybe even the World Series. In reality, the baseball playoffs are a complete crapshoot. In the Wild Card era it’s about which team gets hot at the right time and which team gets the right bounces.
I’m not saying I would pick against the Phillies, but if they lose, there won’t be any freaking out on this blog.
And how about winning 4-straight NL East titles?
Since the leagues broke into divisions in 1969, only 4 other teams have won 4+ straight division titles.
Oakland A’s (1971-1975, 5 straight)
Atlanta Braves (1991-2005, 14 straight)
Cleveland Indians (1995-1999, 5 straight)
New York Yankees (1998-2006, 9 straight)
The Phillies could join that group as soon as today.
No series preview again. Not sure if they will even play tonight based on the weather. Hopefully we clinch today or tomorrow and start resting people and aligning the rotation.
One question to discuss in the comments: How would you set up your rotation for the playoffs?
1) Hoss Halladay 2) Judge Roy Throws Beans 3) Poodles Hamels
Secret Weapon, if willing & able) Jangly Jamie Moyer, Rhythm Destroyer
Impressive set of teams Phils are on verge of joining.
Those Indians may have gotten over the hump in 1 or both of 2 WS if not for the ’93 Spring Training boating accident that claimed the lives of 27 yr. old P Steve Olin and 31 yr. old P Tim Crews. 35 yr old P Bobby Ojeda survived but was debilitated by the tragic event.
You gotta go right left right in the playoffs to throw off opposing team’s hitters and lineups.
That’s a theory. Short series, ya go at ‘em with your best IMO. Can flip been-better later Oswalt (history of strong Falls) with horse Halladey in 1 & 2, but Hamels is number 3 on my scorecard.
Pete: /ef/ history. doesn’t common sense dictate to you, that you want to secure as much of an advantage for yourself as you can? end of the story. But I understand its a crap shoot.
Halladay (has earned it and IS the best pitcher)
Hamels (right, lefty break and contrary to popular opinion, has earned it by consistency)
Oswalt (despite his hot hot hand, is new member to club and game 3 could be more important than either depending on our opponent and/or the result of games 1 &2)
Make that Roy Halladay, a resourceful horse and a rotatational source of much hulabaloo.
Jkay-
Of course. I’m not saying they shouldn’t be going for homefield, or even that it’s a bad thing.
I’m just managing expectations and creating context for crazy Phillies’ fans who may think this year is a failure w/o a title.
You gotta go right left right in the playoffs to throw off opposing team’s hitters and lineups.>>
Either way Hamels will most likely be sandwiched between 2 right handers so it will not matter in that regard.
I am not terribly concerned with how the rotation is set for the playoffs because our rotation this year is set for the playoffs (know what I mean?), and however it is lined up it certainly should be a helluva lot better than last year.
All of the mixing and matching, having Blanton in the pen for the first round then giving him a start in the NLCS and in the WS, sending Happ to the pen and hardly using him, hoping that Hamels would recover that 2008 magic, hoping that Pedro would hold up health-wise and thinking we would be tempting fate by starting him in the cold at Denver, along with some other issues, and wondering if the whole thing would hold up throughout the post season was tough (at least on me) last year.
Who knows how well things will go, but for now I will enjoy not having any of those concerns this year.
article on FG about the Phils rotation; good statistics to look at
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2010-nl-playoff-rotations-philadelphia-phillies/
I would welcome you to “Champagne Monday”, but the weather gods have more control over that than moi. But unlike the Reds, who can clinch tonight, and are off, at least the band of 25 plus will be at the park ready to drink up if the Braves lose. From what I gather, no Red unity is planned, so no par-tee.
Jimmy’s off tonight, no matter what. When and if he does return, which I assume will be tomorrow, I completely understand that Vic should be the leadoff hitter based on numerous reasosn which I assume there is no need to spell out. But I will point out that if the plan is include JRoll on the opening series playoff roster, and play a role, which sure seems natural, the more at bats he gets the remaining games, the less rusty he will be when we hit the field against I would guess SD, but whoever.
The Rangers, cash-strapped for years with owner Tom Hicks, have signed a 20-year extension with Fox Sports Southwest that will guarantee them $3 billion. It’s the highest TV package for a team that doesn’t own its own channel.
Yes, that’s $150 million a year before even playing a game, plenty enough to re-sign ace Cliff Lee, bring in free-agent outfielder Carl Crawford, or whoever else they wish.
In comparison, the Dodgers make about $45 million a year off their TV deal with Fox. >>
Interesting news from the fine folks at USA Today. I’ll be interested to see how much the Phils get on their next contract since the Rangers got that much. That’s a lot of cash for operations, and hardly a superior ratings score for the DFW market.
KB-
Interesting find.
I like the Rangers – or at least their players. Exciting team. Would love to see them keep Lee and get a Crawford (or how well would Werth fit there?).
It felt like the Rangers were involved in 90 percent of the in season transacvtions this pastc year. I am quite sure they will use that capital to the best of their ability.
The amount of money shocked me, but it goes to show the Phils probably have more revenues to look forward to,
” that’s $150 million a year before even playing a game”>>
I’m interested into where all of that money is going, and I agree, with our recent success, we should get a deal even better than this.
Braves aredelayed. I’m gonna miss scoreboard watching season when it ends in the near future.
we should get a deal even better than this.>>
yiou make that sound like that’s the new standard. I have no idea what I am talking about, but I wouldn’t be surprised if to an extent they come to find they overpaid, and maybe significantly. Fox Sports Southwest runs football as much as they can. It’s not like the Rangers will provide anchor programming. But it will help the Phils to an exyent, I’m sure.
nothing against the Rangers but I definitely think the Phils will get more money, they’re selling out every game so they’re popular, they are one of the nations biggest markets and if a network would pay $150 for the Rangers, wouldn’t another network be willing to pay the Phils even more? But to me, even $150 sounds like a huge deal, and I wonder where that money would go.
thatc would be highly cool if that is the swing that pops the cork.
when does the Phillies TV contract expire ? How much do they make now ?
when does the Phillies TV contract expire ? How much do they make now ?
I can look up broadcasting fees during the game. But Brandon’s the one that predicted they will outdue the Rangers, so he should know whenv the deal’s up, and how popular the club will be then.
The Phillies not only can clinch the NL East with a victory tonight, they can clinch the best record in the National League. >>
That’s from Zoelecki, but on pure wins, Giants can still win 94, which is wehat we would have. So I guess it comes down to a tiebreaker which we would have. I would think TZ knows what he’s talking about.
While the considerable revenue the Phillies generate from telecasts on CSN and MYPHIL17 remains a secret…At the time the Phillies got out of their joint-RSN venture with Comcast, they signed a 15-year deal with CSN, one that still has six seasons remaining.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/103223239.html
That’s a great trivia question. The funny thing about it is I can remember Andy Musser screaming into ther Mike, “He buried it!”, but heck if I know who he ripped numberc 48 off of. Fine question.
I couldn’t find the revenues chart for all clubs, but Brandon answered the queestion on the Phils fees as much as it can be I guess.
first pitch in ATL now schedules for 8:15 Eastern. Maybe a stroke of luck that we’ll figure to finish our game first. Ice that bubbly, ice that bubbly, GO PHILS!
Thanks, Bill Conlin always made mention of how secretive the organization is about finances. They also make money on all events at the stadium AND at the Fargo Center.
Nats announcers are gushing over the “Might Phillies,”which is how they refer to them.
This might be the biggest 1-0 lead in baseball history. You just know our guys feel it. I don’t know the plan, but it’d be great to see Doc go the distance, and have Sweeney play first in the 9th. Let those boys be on the field whenv we go nuts. It’s just 1 step, but when you think of all that went into it, it’s a great, great acvhievement. My biggest concern about the post game is that Sweeney might squueze someone onto the DL.
Again, at the beginning of September, following the Houston loss, JW had dropped to ridiculous numbers with RISP, and some other assorted uncherishable digits. I made the statement that the opportunity to offset all that was still in front of him. I’m sure it sounds cheap to say this, but some imbicile on here said I was a homer for saying that. The numbers Werth has put up since have clearly validated that the future was in front of Werth, and the ballclub. And they have answered in capital letters. Truth, as they say, is the truth.
Doc’s at 58 pitches and counting as we write.
Tomorrow night, since Vic and the regulars will no doubt rest, if Jimmy plays, I think he’ll bat lead off to get as many ABs as he tries to find his timing.
I’m sure there have been some, but I can’t think of any athlete who ever had more killer instinct this close to the finish line than Doc. So long for his first division title. Maybe Elway in his first Super Bowl win, or Mike Jordan every singloe day he laced up Airs, but that’s about kit. Well, Pete about the same amount of times as Jordan, but this is heavy stuff. Just like listening to the long version of “The Dells” singing the long version of Stay in My Corner is a cornerstone to any music collection, if Doc gets the 9th, and I know he will, you won’t get any more cornerstone in Phils memories than that. As memorable? Sure. More so. Nadda. Get it Doc, get it.
JKay, you on board for the 9th?
When Doc comes out for the 9th, he will get a standing ovation. If that doesn’t ice the killer instinct, and take it to the next level, only the cloincher for the pennant or Series will. Our fans in DC will gto bonkers.
aloof is the keyword. even watching baseball feels boring when the goal seems inevitable. From Gamecast I can see Doc may be going for another CG. Is he warming up for the night or is he done.
CG, shutout to clinch, win #21 will probably seal the Cy Young for him.
I keep wanting this inning to end, so we can get it done,v and we won’t go down. Wish it was even frequently like this.
Doc has the 9th.
knowing Charlie, he’d still send Doc out there even if this inning stretches and he sits for a while.
in due time….
win #21 will probably seal the Cy Young for him.>>
Boy, I’d think so. Worthy efforts by AW, who I’m happy got 20, same for Ubaldo, Hudson gets comeback player of the year, and shame Josh Johnson was hurt, but at the end of the day, the cream rose to the top.
“Thanks, Bill Conlin always made mention of how secretive the organization is about finances.”
As is every single professional sports team. It’s not like they are publically owned.
I know many here like Conlin – but add that sentiment to the reasons why I haven’t read him in 5+ years. Just another example of him trying to villainize something or someone where it isn’t necessary.
knowing Charlie, he’d still send Doc out there even if this inning stretches and he sits for a while.
in due time….>>
Charlie knows what this means to Doc. And besides, Doc would scream bloody murder. I’d like to see Sweeney on the field for huis first ever title, but its not like RyHo doesn’t deserve to be on the field.
Can Werth just bunt so we get through the bottom of the 9th?
but add that sentiment to the reasons why I haven’t read him in 5+ years. >>
great beat writer, which is different than the time frame you mention, but some of his stuff is still excellent. Whether it’s worth it to sort through is individual judgement call.
Phils vs. Nats – 10-5 in series and counting
END THIS HALF INNING
This is just unbelievable. No way Gamecast could do that justice. Dunn waits on a slow roller, and Werth beats him to the bag. Doc will be a grandfather by the time B9 starts.
Can Werth just bunt so we get through the bottom of the 9th?>>
He kinda did.
Contreras is up if you’re on Gamecast.
fraG!!!!
Raul swinging at probable ball 4 finally ends the “misery.”
well, he’s up, but not necessarily in.
wait why the heck does a 1Baseman wait on a bunt? to go foul??
well no point complaining…
Doc gets the 9th
That’s from Zoelecki, but on pure wins, Giants can still win 94, which is wehat we would have. So I guess it comes down to a tiebreaker which we would have. I would think TZ knows what he’s talking about.>>
The Phillies split the series against the Giants 3-3 so the next tiebreaker is intraleague record. Apparently, the Phillies have the better record against the National League.
Doc…for the East. For the 4th straight year.
congrats Phils.
can put up a virtual flag now.
come to work again tomorrow. whoever’s in the lineup that is.
2-hitter complete game shutout for the 21st win of the season to win the NL East the tipping point for that Cy Young?
All I can say is if the Giants beat us, they beat the best.
Pete> I respectfully disagree on all counts. Conlin was the best Phillies writer in my lifetime. Age has not been very kind to him, but he is still the only columnist who tries to get deep below the surface.
As for the Phillies being secretive about their finances, they are the ones who constantly raise the issue by crying over and over, through Ruben, that they can’t afford more salary.
Conlin just isn’t my taste, perfectly fine if he is yours.
“they are the ones who constantly raise the issue by crying over and over, through Ruben, that they can’t afford more salary.”
I know you aren’t really complaining about the payroll of the team with the 4th highest in the league, on the night we won our 4th straight NL East title, right?
Every team has a limit for payroll, even the Yankees.
The reference is not about a limit for payroll but rather a limit for economic transparency.
is lack of economic transparency limited to the Phillies organization in professional sports?
Congratulations, Philadelphia Phillies.
What a regular season!!! An injured plagued season and best record in the national league and the entire league (thus far) who would have thought??
GO PHILLIES!! GET SOME REST GUYS!! GET JIMMY PLAYING!!
I presume not, but intentional misdirection by administrators under investigating questioning is not to be softly accepted, particularly on the rationalizing notion that others get away with it too. The job of a journalist is to fact-find, to uncover that which is veiled and newsworthy in matters of public interest. Hail, Chair1!
I’m not complaining about the payroll from the team that has the 2nd highest attendance in the ML. What I am tired of is that it seems that every time I read an article that quotes Amaro, there is that annoying whining that the team can’t afford blah blah… Yet, I don’t hear about fans griping when the price of tickets, parking,etc go up every year.
I must also admit that the underlying reason why I’m so grumpy is because they let Lee go, and lied to the fans about the reason why they did that; and, now it looks like Jayson will be the next to leave. They were 2 of my favorite Phillies
Re: Conlin…Hopefully you can, at least, appreciate Conlin’s amazing writing skills.
i don’t necessarily think they lied to the fans about the lee trade. it just turned out to be unsuccessful. and also, considering how much winning the phillies have done, phillies tickets have been a good deal compared to other teams. the increase in price for phillies tickets this year are nowhere near other teams
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/article/101722
Phillies tickets are very cheap compared to the other teams of their caliber.
“there is that annoying whining that the team can’t afford blah blah… Yet, I don’t hear about fans griping when the price of tickets, parking,etc go up every year.”
I’m pretty sure that was a fan griping.
And I’m pretty sure there payroll has gone up significantly every single year since 2006. 2007 was the year people really started coming to the ballpark in droves, and their payroll increases have correlated with that.
I don’t take Ruben saying they can’t afford more as “whining.” They simply don’t have unlimited funds to spend (this is FACT) and it’s clear some fans will never be satisfied with the payroll.
Re: Posts #22 and #33 above, a bit of obscure information to explain why the Phillies would win the tiebreaker against the Giants should they wind up tied. I was puzzled about this, because various sources say that after head-to-head record, the second tiebreaker is intraleague record (i.e., record vs. NL). The Phillies and Giants tied in the season series 3-3, and the Phillies would have a worse record vs. the NL if they lost their last 5 and the Giants won their last 6 (84-60 vs. 87-60). It turns out, however, that intraleague record is NOT the second tiebreaker in this scenario (I had trouble finding this information, so I thought I’d share). According to baseball-reference.com, http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/division_ties.shtml, Scenario #7, the second tiebreaker is record vs. “own division.” Even if the Phillies lost their last 5 and the Giants won their last 6, the Phillies would still win this tiebreaker, 41-31 to 40-32. So, the Phillies have HFA in the playoffs for as long as they play.
statman-
Interesting. thanks for the update.
Barner-thanks for the 2006 stats….here’s an update for the ranking of the cost to go to a baseball game in 2010.
http://www.teammarketing.com/fancost/mlb/
Dino -
That is an interesting spreadsheet.
Does it support or go against your point though?
Ticket prices went up over 6% which is the 2nd highest change in MLB.
However, one of my points was that the fans don’t mind paying a bit more which is logical because the team has been so successful. And. there is some room there. i think the majority of fans would love to see Jayson back next year
Call me cheap, but I mind paying the increases. The sneaky incremental jumps at various points of the CBP experience add up. Sixers & Eagles prices are already absurd; Phillies are gradually getting there.
Dino, Good statistical insert. Thanks.