The Phillies close the season October 2-4 with a 3 game series at home against the Florida Marlins. I want that series to mean absolutely nothing. A good start to reaching that goal would be for the Phillies to take advantage of their next 10 games, all against low level competition. We start with the 54-65 Diamondbacks who are missing Justin Upton, then 4 games with the 55-63 Mets, who are missing everyone, and we are lucky enough to likely face their 4 pitchers not named Johan Santana, and finally, 3 games against the 47-70 Pirates. Meanwhile the Fish play Houston, Atlanta and the Mets.
We need to go at least 7-3 in these 10 games, hopefully 8-2 or better, and gain 1-2 games on Florida and Atlanta.
2009: 66-49
2008: 62-53
2007: 61-54
Player of the Series: Ryan Howard (4 for 10, 3 HR, 6 RBI)
Goat of the Series: Brad Lidge (1.2 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 2 ER)
The Good News:
- The starters have turned it around in a big way. In the 29 games since the all-star break, the starters have a collective 2.93 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. The Phillies starting pitching ERA was last, by a lot, for most of the first half of the year. Now, they are 8th out of 16 in the NL.
- Lee, Happ and Blanton have made 14 of those starts, and are 7-4 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while averaging over 7 innings per start. I doubt there has been a better trio in baseball since the break.
- Howard might be poised for his usual late season tear, with an RBI in each of his last 7 games (12 total) and 2 lead-changing homeruns against the Braves.
- Scott Eyre has the 5th best ERA in baseball (1.71) of any pitcher with 25+ IP.
- The Phillies signed Brody Colvin, their 7th round pick who would have been a late first, early 2nd round pick had he not been committed to LSU. He currently throws a 89-93 mph fastball with a lot of life and has the frame to grow bigger and throw harder. He needs to work on control and his secondary pitches, but has the arm to pitch in the big leagues.
The Bad News:
- Ibanez is in a serious funk right now. Since returning from the DL on July 11th, he’s hitting .245 with a .777 OPS. We knew he would come down from his unreal play at the start of the season. Hopefully he can find his swing again before the playoffs.
- Lidge, Lidge, Lidge
- Our bench, a huge asset for us the last couple years, has been horrible this year. The Phillies team average for players who didn’t start the game is .170 for the season in 268 plate appearances. By comparison, last year it was .246 (not as good as I would have thought, but still a 45% increase).
Series Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks at Phillies
The D-Backs have actually played better of late, going 16-13 since the break. They are also throwing their 3 best pitchers at us so this is no roll over series. Mark Reynolds has been on fire since the break with a 1.253 OPS and is currently on pace for 52 home runs on the season. If we can handle him and catcher Miguel Montero, we should be able to handle the D-Backs.
Tuesday: Martinez vs. RHP Jon Garland (6-10, 4.28 ERA)
Wednesday: Lee vs. RHP Dan Haren (12-7, 2.50 ERA)
Thursday: Blanton vs. LHP Doug Davis (7-10, 3.59 ERA)
Three Questions for the Series…
- How will the Pedro Show play at home?
- Who wins the Lee / Haren showdown?
- Will Ryan Howard continue his current tear?
Prediction
Like I said in the start, the Phillies have to take advantage of this 10 game stretch and I think (hope) that they are in late summer / early fall mode where they beat the teams they should like they have the last 2 years. I still don’t know what to expect from Pedro tonight, but I think he gets the job done and the offense helps him out again. I think we split the last 2 games, and come out taking 2 of 3. If we don’t win this series, I think it’s an indication that the players’ heads are necessarily in the right place.
AR, NY, PITT – don’t think there’s much of a chance for 8-2, especially since they’ll probably drop 2 of 3 from AZ … crystal ball: Pedro & gang win tonight, Haren wins duel and swing game goes to relaxed, goin’ nowhere Snakes vs. Joe Bob (due for a middlin’ showing). And the Flushing Meadows Mutts can still growl & bare fangs at Phils on occasion, even in this, their season of a brand new stadium, piles of injuries and dashed hopes. 6-4 seems about right. Of course baseball usually surprises, one way or another.
bit pessimistic don’t you think?
What do you think, Mark? .600 ball sounds positive to me.
I agree with all of you points Pete. I don ‘t have anything to add other than to elaborate on Lidge.
We didn’t lose a lead in the 9th at all last year and he and Madson were almost unhittable for the most part down the stretch. Unless one of them starts pitching well enough to fill the closers role I don’t see the Phils repeating. When I first decided to comment on this post I was gonna say how excited I was to watch the team once Ibanez, Utley, Hamels, and Werth start playing consistently the way they are capable of playing. However, remembering the game Lidge blew the other day against Atlanta I realized that unless we blow every team out it doesn’t matter if all of the other guys play well enough to have the lead if we don’t have someone who can close the game out.
In short, I am praying for Lidge to regain is ’08 form and then I will not worry so much about the team.
jjg-
I love Ryan Howard, but it is flat out comical that he shakes his head in disbelief almost every time he strikes out
Pete, know of any better 4 game stretch by a phillies pitcher?
Add his 3 starts prior to the trade and its:
Last 7 starts: 7W/OL; 8.3 IP/G; 48K/6W/40H in 58 IP (and he got “knocked around” for 16 hits and 2R in the 1st 2 games, so has been stronger in his last 5.)
tk76-
I actually do… Randy Wolf at the end of 2002 was absolutely unhittable. I remember thinking he was gonna win the Cy Young the next year or something…
His 4 starts from Aug 15 – Sep 6, 2002…
9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 10 K
9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K
9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
So, a 0.25 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP
I am now very curious to see what kind of a guy we have in Cole Hamels. I think that what Cliff Lee is doing will give us a look at what Hamels is made of.
I believe that Lee established himself as the ace of the staff after his first couple starts, especially in light of the fact that Hamels did not step up and answer back. After last night, as Lee was getting an ovation every time he finished an inning or stepped up to the plate (where he has also been surprisingly productive), he showed that he has also won a lot of fan support.
I have to imagine that being supplanted, both on the mound and in the hearts of many fans, so quickly has to be a jolt to Hamels’ psyche. Now we will see how he deals with it. If he can use this as motivation, improve his focus and determination, and drive himself to give Lee a run for his money, we will have one hell of a 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.
bski-
Good as Lee’s been, haven’t taken him to heart yet. Right now, he’s a temporary honorary member of the Phillies. Cleveland & AL linger.
Boffo visitor though. Keep it up, Cliffie!
Yeah, it’s probably too late for Hamels to really turn it around this year. He might be able to improve some, but the arm fatigue you mentioned (if it is a factor) coupled with the fact that he still only has two pitches at this point (even though he has recently started working on his curveball more in between starts as well as using it more frequently in each start) argues against any major improvements in 2009.
I think next year will tell the tale. If he truly has the make up of a #1 starter, then he will work very hard in the off season, turn his curveball back into the weapon it used to be when he first came up, and come into next season determined to take the crown away from Lee.
Miss Hamels regrets she’s unable to launch today.
“Styles” Short, so nicknamed because he brought and wore one downscale suit with him for major league travel, was a REAL Phillie, moreso than Dec. ’63 Detroit import Jim Bunning. The Delaware native contributed to and endured the infamous ’61 23 game losing streak, suffered the heartbreak of ’64, pitched with metronomial form and fluidity (and KO arm power) throughout his Phillies days (’59-’72) with All-Star distinction. The smaller-media era in which he pitched and his humble personality kept his profile relatively low in comparison to contemporaries he sometimes bested. He takes a back seat only to Carlton in lefties I’ve seen pitch for Phillies. A sad early end at 53 due to an aneurysm. A very fine pitcher.
Pete, Obviously, I intended to place post #15 in Short’s thread. Will you reposition? Thanks in advance.