I haven’t done a series preview in awhile, partially because of the trade deadline, and partially because I’ve been travelling. But the Phillies are done trading (probably), I’m done visiting stadiums (for now) and this is really, really interesting series we have coming up.
Here are some of the plot lines as I see them…
- This is a potential preview of a first round playoff match-up if the Giants were to win the Wild Card, as I believe they will. Added the this that it is a 4-game series, so essentially full-out practice for a playoff series, minus 1 game, and home field advantage.
- The Giants, who are stacked with starting pitching, just made two moves for hitters in Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko. Sanchez will debut against us, Garko has already debuted.
- The Giants fans are ticked at Philadelphia fans for beating them in the Victorino/Sandoval all-star battle
- The Giants fans/players/management are even more ticked at Charlie Manual for picking Jayson Werth over Sandoval as an injury replacement when Werth wasn’t even in the “final vote.”
- The possible Cliff Lee/Tim Lincecum match-up on Saturday. Would be only the 3rd time in baseball history the 2 reigning Cy Young award winners would face off against one another. No pressure, Cliff.
- The Giants 34-15 home record, the best in the majors, against the Phillies 31-16 road record, the best in the majors.
- Timmy Lincecum is always a plot line for me, most exciting pitcher in baseball.
Probable Pitching Match-Ups
Thursday: Lopez vs. LHP Jonathan Sanchez (3-9, 4.92 ERA)
Friday: Blanton vs. RHP Ryan Sadowski (2-3, 4.81 ERA)
Saturday: Lee vs. RHP Tim Lincecum (11-3, 2.30 ERA) *Lee not announced yet
Sunday: Hamels vs. LHP Barry Zito (6-10, 4.54)
Three Questions for the Series
- How will Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco do in their first appearances as Phillies?
- Can we contain Pablo Sandoval, their only player with an OPS over .800 (we have 5)?
- Can we work Tim Lincecum the way we did Dan Haren?
Prediction
The Phillies are 19-4 in their last 23 games, the Giants are 13-3 in their last 16 home games. Both teams are coming off trades that will have the players fired up, and both are barreling towards the playoffs. For these reasons, it is really tough for me to predict anything other than a 2-2 split (boring, I know). The Phillies might have a tough time tonight with Jonathan Sanchez, who is a hard throwing lefty and threw a no-hitter a couple nights ago. They have to be patient with him, as he can wild. We should hit Sadowski, but we should have hit Petit last night as well. It would be a great thing for Lee to beat Lincecum in his first start, but that’s a tall order for anyone, and you have to think we have the advantage Sunday. So I’d say we win Friday and Sunday and split.
Loading ...
{ 50 comments… read them below or add one }
A 2-2 split sounds about right. I’m really hoping we can get to Sanchez tonight though. He has a WHIP of 1.472, surrendering 8.1 H/9 and 5.1 W/9 (although the fact that he also strikes out 9.2/9 could be problematic, especially coming off last night). He only goes right around 5 innings per start and in his two starts since his no-hitter against the Padres he has given up 9 hits (3 home runs), 5 walks, and 8 runs over just 11 innings, losing to both Atlanta and Colorado in the process.
If Lopez could give us a solid start, we’ve got a good shot at taking game 1 and setting ourselves up to take 3 games in the series. That’s what I’m looking for.
apparently the Iron Pigs were in the middle of a series against the Indians AAA club in Lehigh. Marson and Donald just literally went to the other dugout tonight. That must have been very strange for them.
philly.com is reporting that Lee is starting tomorrow night and Blanton on Saturday night.
“Pitching coach Rich Dubee said that after Lee starts tomorrow, Joe Blanton will pitch Saturday and Cole Hamels Sunday. ”
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Happ_in_for_now_at_least.html
Werth -2, Phils 1.
Jimmy’s smilin’ again. His teeth are frontrunners.
Utley grandstandin’ with gumchewin’ staredown of Sanchez in dugout after unintentional “beanball” & subsequent adrenaline HR – looks more like James Dean than John Wayne. The cowpoke of Westwood. World f—— wild pitches. Credit where due: nice swing on ill-advised 2-2 fastball.
Even in a loss Chase Utley is still the coolest SOB in baseball.
Nice of me to jinx Rodriguez, wasn’t it? Granted, the defense hurt him and the offense is in a funk but still, 8 hits and 2 walks (one a 4-pitch walk to the pitcher, Sanchez, who had struck out in 18 of his 22 at bats this season) in 4 innings wasn’t going to get it done.
Sanchez went right around 5 innings again and gave up 3 walks. Unfortunately, as I feared, he also struck out 7.
Can’t wait for Lee to right the ship tonight.
I came across this article on Fangraphs:
Three Lefty Playoff Rotation
For what it’s worth. We’ll soon see how it plays out. Reading this only confirms for me that Moyer should be the odd man out if we need a 4th starter in the playoffs.
We have met the enemy (besides the Dodgers), and they are the Giants!! They are great as advertised in terms of pitching and few runs allowed!
In yet another twist of the trade, Carlos Carrasco pitches against the Iron Pigs in Allentown tonight, where he will be opposed by Pedro Martinez. Interesting.
bski, I wish you were there at the game just so I could’ve turned to you and said, “A pitcher who gets hit hard and digs the Phils into holes they have to come back from? Yup, that DOES sound like Jamie Moyer.”
Still, like you said, the Phils could’ve played better defense behind Rodrigo.
A couple more quick hits: Who and what is a Tyler Walker? It was kind of sad to see that Kendrick’s fallen from playoff starter to a guy who mops up after early inning implosions by the starters. I had no idea Willie McCovey was so good.
Tyler Walker looks like the overgrown California kid who pitches in Williamsport every August. I’m waitin’ for his father to walk from the dugout to calm him down. His given weight is 262, but that was prior to his becoming a Hardee’s franchise manager.
Great updates on the minor league stuff. I had no idea we were playing them.
testing…….just had a post vaporize
phillies’ play has been a lil too complacent lately.
the giants lineup is terribly weak, still they manage to get it done. that scares me.
Utley: you gotta give him props. he walks the walk, without talking. albeit the wild pitch wasnt intentional, but gotta love the ATTITUDE!
Werth is not looking so hot.
Its time for Mr. Lee to come to the rescue. can’t wait for tonite.
Zack,
I just realized that in #7 I called Rodrigo Lopez……Rodriguez! Only his very close friends call him by that name. Sorry for any confusion but apparently you knew who I meant.
I didn’t know anything about Tyler Walker before he was called up. He basically spent his entire career with the Giants, made 65 appearances for them last year, became a free agent at the end of 2008, was signed by Seattle, and then dropped by them at the end of spring training. He’s one of those veteran (33 years old) guys with big league experience that I’m guessing we picked up for bullpen depth and who has been an injury fill-in for us, and a decent one.
I just read an article about Kendrick a couple days ago. It spoke about how he has now developed his changeup to the point that he actually likes to throw it and is consistently using it with success. I don’t know if it will be enough that it will translate to more success at the big league level (assuming he will be able to get another shot with the glut of arms we have now).
Yes, McCovey was a very good player. Baseball-reference.com lists his closest comps as Fred McGriff, Willie Stargell, and Harmon Killebrew.
testing…….really getting frustrated now.
bski -
Utley: actually had 2 fielding errors (1 mental, 1 physical) last night though Golden Boy only charged w/1; shoulda been on the bag, ready for Feliz’ throw. His overreaction to WP mighta been a venting offshoot of 1st fielding embarrassment. If he pulled that ‘walk out of box the instant before pitch delivery’ in a former era, he woulda been drilled on the next one. Fine player but thinks his spit isn’t wet.
The Phillies MUST learn the calm, cool ways of the California personality in order to master the Giants, especially in a possible 1st round matchup. They must learn to be more patient with their offense and not go after the long ball constantly. The Phillies can play the “hero” through singles, doubles, and triples and not always the home runs. With the Giants, EVERY possession is important. They make a team pay when their opponents commit errors.
The Phils will win the NL East, but must maintain that lead. For them, the bigger goal and picture is to make a statement against their NL opponents saying they are still the team to beat. If the Phils do face the Giants, they better have homecourt!
What is the latest status on Pedro? Come playoff time, I hope he can come through. Lopez and Happ are a bit shaky to be in the postseason rotation.
Also, keep an eye on the Rockies!
jjg -
The giants really do scare me if they get into the postseason and are our first round matchup. We will have homefield against them because the best they can be is the Wild Card, but if Randy gets healthy we will face Lincecum and Cain, two brutal pitchers, and if we squeeze through that with a split, we get two tough lefties in Sanchez and Randy Johnson. Not the optimal series for the Phils, as a matter of fact, that spells major trouble.
On a side note…Let’s say the Phils are in an elimination game in a 5 or seven game set with someone in the playoffs and Hamels pitches like he has all year and Lee continues to pitch the way he has the rest of the way out, Does Charlie give Lee the ball in that game??? I don’t, for two reasons, Cole has more experience and success, and you could ruin the relationship with Cole for years to come.
Pete, Favorite Phils are Shane (go-getter; love the way he covers ground) and the less touted Chan Ho, Carlos, Pedro & Eric - guys who take knocks, get up and compete. Of course, when the venerable Mr. Martinez arrives with his pinache and slatherings of hot sauce pitches, he’ll assume #1 position. Which players do you particularly like on the roster?
Thanks, Pete.
You probably don’t remember, but I had a problem posting one day last summer as well. Don’t know why it seems to happen here and there. I was going through the usual steps——–disconnecting the router and modem, shutting everything down, reconnecting everything, and restarting——–but it still wasn’t working.
Spam filter, indeed. How insulting! Nothing but top quality comments coming from me, right?
jjg-
utley and shane are my faves on the team. victorino for his defense and baserunning mostly. rollins is up there too, though it’s sometimes a love/hate. Like shane, I love his defense and baserunning, as well as his attitude towards making the Phillies a perennial winner through his entire tenure here. I think he’s had a tremendous long-term affect on the culture of the team.
Michael Taylor will probably join that group when he gets called up. Marson was another favorite of mine, but I’ll follow him with the Indians.
favorite non-phillies: Kershaw, Lincecum, Greinke, Vlad, Longoria
bski-
real strange for that to hit the spam filter with no links.
I would like to re-state a point I’ve made a couple times this year: Jayson Werth is an overrated fielder.
He is fast and can get to balls quickly, but in terms of actually catching the ball when he is running/jumping/diving, he more often than not misses. Last night’s mishap was another example. Even though he mis-read it, he got enough of his glove on it that he really should have caught it. He does this all the time when about to run into walls.
Great question, Richie.
From my perspective, a win-or-go-home situation is not the time for loyalty to play into your decision making process. You put the guy who you think gives you the best chance to win that day out there, period. If Lee has clearly been throwing better than Hamels, then he gets the nod.
I know that’s easy for me to say because I don’t have to deal with any of the fallout from such a decision, but I think it’s the right way to approach it.
Gotta figure that Charlie would be leaning toward Hamels in the first place, which would certainly color his thinking with regard to who he thinks would give us the best chance. That, plus the fact that Charlie is nothing if not loyal to “his guys” would stack the deck in Hamels’ favor, IMO.
I’d say if it’s anywhere close between Lee and Hamels, then, yes, I would give the nod to Hamels because of the experience he has and the belief that he’s earned it based on past performance.
Pete, Though I don’t like his stylings, I can’t deny Rollins’ winning influence; he’s right up there with Bowa re fielding dependability, no matter what he’s hitting.
Some favorite non-Phils: Rolen (tough out, fine fielder), Abreu (hitting machine), Kinsler (hustling winner), H. Ramirez (what a natural!), Loney (can hit AND field), Delgado (scalds it; always dangerous), McCann (gamer).
ok! Lee is probably our #1. no knock on Hamels but that command of all 3 or 4 pitches is hard to beat. turns out he’s a great hitting pitcher too, whadday know. low stroke, solid but short follow through. wow this may be REALLY good for us.
I’m trying not to get too excited over one game, but you couldn’t hope for much better than that from Lee’s debut! Welcome to Philly, Cliff! We’re not worthy!
A few more starts like that and it will be “welcome to the Phil’Lee’s, Cliff.”
BTW, didn’t someone post that Phillip is actually Cliff Phil Lee’s given middle name? I’m willing to go wth it.
tk76 – I think stu posted that as a joke.
what a debut!
Lee has a very impressive repotoire, I must say. His cutter is deadly if he locates it, and he has a hard curve that I like. We’ve got Blanton and Moyer with 4 pitches,but this must be what someone looks like 4 good pitches! It’s going to be electric in CBP for his first start.
Watching Lee pitch made me wonder how dominant Hamels could be if he developed a cutter. His curve is ok, but he barely throws it and its real slow. If he had a hard pitch with movement, it would significantly cut down his home runs allowed because the hitters couldn’t key on his fastball.
Yeah, I’ll take about 15 more starts like that (about 10 more during the regular season + about 5 more in the playoffs should do the trick).
That was a very impressive performance, to say the least. None of the Giants were getting good wood on the ball, it seemed like he jammed players a lot, broke a few bats, etc.
Pete: concerning Lee, i’d say I am not at all concerned about him facing RH batters . with that stuff, he evens the playing field real well. RH batters can’t pull stuff off of him because he doesnt just have only fastball and change-up, at best opposite field hits like that dropper (double) yesterday.
Can we work Tim Lincecum the way we did Dan Haren?
Well we did get his pitch count up there pretty quickly but give Lincecum credit he worked his way out of trouble a few times and they got him all the runs he needed. They didn’t hit Blanton well at all, and its a shame a great start from him had to come against arguably the best pitcher in the National League. I doubt the Phils’ lineup has this much trouble two days in a row and I don’t think Hamels will have any trouble with the SF lineup so I think the Phils salvage a split….
Yeah, Blanton was very good. Unfortunately, Lincecum was better. Well that, plus our lineup continues to struggle. Tough to watch them get guys on base in almost every inning and not be able to bring them around. We’ve certainly had our chances.
I’m thinking the Phils are due for a bust-out game. They put up double-digit runs every 10 days or so and the last time was against the Cards, when they scored 14 on 7/25.
Hope I’m right. Want that split and a 4-3 record on the road trip.
Lincecum was amazing despite walking a lot of players. Well, if the Phils play the Giants in the playoffs, Hamels and Lee will be matched up with Cain and Lincecum.
I think we will split this series and Hamels will beat Zito. The Phils will make him, “Baked Zito”.
As long as the Phils get homecourt in the 1st round, then the Phils should be fine.
GO PHILLIES!!
What a disappointing game that was. Lousy way to end the series, and the road trip.
Was I the only one irritated by Tom McCarthy. He kept saying over and over how Cole Hamels was “dealing” and you didn’t see the blowup coming. He was driving me nuts because first, I got it the first time he said it and second, I didn’t agree with him.
I didn’t see Hamels “dealing”. I thought he was dancing in between the raindrops for a while. I mean, the first batter of the game sent a shot right back up the middle. Luckily he was able to get a glove on it and deflect it to Rollins who made the play. I also saw several hard hit balls that were right at fielders. Finally, I saw a guy who left a lot of pitches up in the zone and had virtually every one of them hit hard.
Pete was dead on a couple days ago when he said that Hamels needs to develop another pitch. He’s not getting by as well as he used to with just a fastball, which is now 90-91 instead of the 93-94 it used to be, and a changeup, that more guys are laying off of. He used to use his curveball effectively. Not a lot, but enough. It seemed like he actually tried to throw more curveballs today, or maybe I just noticed them more because it seemed like every one he threw got hammered.
Ryan Howard is now killing me. His strikeouts have been way up and he’s trying to pull everything again. Also, he needs to get back to work with Sam Perlozzo because his defense has deteriorated. Terrible play today. His throwing is back to where it was last year (he made a bad throw last Sunday too).
Ah, that’s enough grousing. Today’s game just irked me is all.
bski, three takes on the series:
#1, the Giants are tough at home, we were lucky to get one. But the media out here they’re playing it up as “the underdog Giants beat the big, bad Philadelphia Phillies.”
#2, on offense, they just couldn’t string anything together, much like how the Giants scored those two runs off Blanton. All those hits against Timmy L, if we could’ve just had a bunch of them in one inning we deal him a loss. But the Phillies do that even against the worst of pitchers.
#3, there’s something stale and cheesy about this team, like it’s an overbloated sequel to a great original (Pedro! Cliff Lee!). When I get the chance, I’ll try to elaborate more on these feelings, but I’m not liking what I saw. For example, is there enough love in Philly for both Hamels and Lee? More importantly, does Hamels think there is? But I did love them working Lincecum on Saturday, that was championship stuff right there.
Zack…….Yeah, we were lucky to get one and we didn’t face Cain! I’m concerned and I’m not, because it’s the same stuff we’ve been going through the last several years, you know?
I’m concerned that we only scored 20 runs over the entire 7-game road trip, that we can’t hit with RISP, that Howard is striking out a lot again, that we live by the home run and die when we can’t hit them——–btw, I read a quote from Jayson Werth about how several of the fly balls the Phils hit over the weekend would have been HRs in CBP. Uh-huh, and exactly what does that matter? Maybe you should think about changing your approach, huh Jason? Just a thought——–but that has been the nature of our club over the last few years and they have found a way to put it together and win, even more this year than the last couple (so far anyway).
I don’t think the team is stale at all. This was just another rough patch that occurs periodically. I see the Phils just doing what they do, which is to cooly go about their business, regardless of the situation. They have remained steady and played their best baseball down the stretch in each of the last two seasons, in the face of a couple decent deficits no less, so I don’t expect them to feel the pressure/crack/crumble with a lead this year. They’ll start hammering the ball and scoring bunches of runs and we’ll forget about their struggles on this trip, until they hit their next dry spell of course.
No, the two issues I mentioned in my previous post are what’s got me now. I’m aggravated with Howard and genuinely concerned about Hamels.
Early in the season, Howard was striking out much less and using more of the field, all while playing markedly better defense. He wasn’t hitting home runs, but I figured they’d come once the weather warmed up. I thought that he might have figured something out at the plate. After a while however, he went back to striking out at his usual pace and trying to pull everything. OK, so he is what he is as a hitter. I can live with that. What’s really got me though is his defense. He was playing (and throwing) very well defensively and now he has really slid back to his old ways. He’s just not making the effort to play (and throw) the ball correctly on every play. He is not setting his feet, stepping, and throwing the ball. Too often he is lazy, stands flat-footed, and slings the ball, or he continues to drift and throw on the move unnecessarily.
What bothers me is that he was playing very well, which means that he can do it. The only explanation for the deterioration must be that he is not putting the time in like he was (kinda like Thad Young shooting the lights out early in the season and then having his shooting % tail off). I realize there is not as much time to be had now as there was in the spring, but Rollins, Utley, Victorino, etc… maintain their level of defense under the same conditions, so there is no excuse.
Hamels concerns me (and yes, I do think there is enough love to be had in Philly for both Lee and Hamels) because he has lost both velocity and command this year, not to mention his curveball,which has withered from neglect. When Hamels was in the minors (and when he first came up), I seem to recall the scouting reports said he had a plus-fastball, a plus-curveball, and a plus-plus-changeup. That’s not what he’s got now. I’d say he has an average fastball and a plus-changeup, with episodic command of both. At this point, I’d say that his experience is serving him better than is his arsenal of pitches.
This very well might be attributable to the large increase in IP from 2007 to 2008, and the fact that he pitched an extra month last year and, as a result, ended up with one less month of recovery in the off season. That’s all well and good. However, what happens if we make another world series run this year? Will another long season with less recovery time mean that he will have the same problems next year? Gotta think so, don’t you? I mean, is this going to be a permanent condition as long as we keep playing October baseball? Will he eventually build up enough arm strength to successfully deal with the increased demands and return to the pitcher he was, or might he break down due to year after year of extra work . It’s been on my mind lately.
Hamels inconsistency does worry me and his fastball is not as fast as in years’ past. Will he get back in a groove? I think so, but when? Right now, in a playoff series I would have Lee for Game 1 and Hamels for Game 2, depending on if he continues to struggle.
The Giants are strong with their homecourt advantage, which has been tremendous in space, great pitching, and cold, windy conditions. On the road, they are so-so, but the pitching is still there.
Right now, the Giants and the Rockies are tied in the Wild Card. Tomorrow, the Phils have another critical series with playoff potential against the Rockies. Who do you guys prefer facing in the NLDS, Great Starting Pitching from the Giants or a Possible Hot Streak from the Rockies (ala 2007)? Either way, the Phils better have homecourt and get on a major run of their own (that includes great pitching and great scoring opportunities) as the regular season comes to an end.
GO PHILLIES!!
Rob, I’ll take the Rockies this season over San Francisco. If San Francisco goes into CBP and takes 1 of 2 (in the NLDS), I think they go back to San Francisco and take the next two. I think the Phils can recover from going 1-1 in the first two games against the Rockies in an NLDS.
bski, this isn’t the more on-depth elaboration I said I’d give, but here’s another analogy for the Lee-Hamels combo - I think what they needed was a Han Solo to Hamels’ Luke Skywalker; instead, it feels like they’ve gotten another Skywalker. But that’s gonna be the basis of what I’m going to try to argue – it seems like this season’s Phils weren’t as carefully constructed as last year’s was and Amaro strikes me more as a poker player than a team builder.
Do you remember that article about why Gillick traded Abreu for peanuts? It was because he wanted to give these guys the opportunity to be leaders and show off their stuff. So the approach this season is, “You guys aren’t good enough to win it all again, so we’re gonna bring in more talent.” Is that how you repeat?
About Hamels, I was very disappointed (although AT&T park is always a good time), and I was actually gonna come here and ask you what’s up with the guy, but I guess it was on your mind, too.
There are other things that concern me, like our bullpen————It’s a good unit when everyone is healthy, but we’ve just been stuck in a season-long cycle of guys getting injured, coming back after a layoff, needing time to regain their command, etc…. They’ve all been doing a pretty good job of covering for one another. Just don’t know if that will get it done in the playoffs though. Gotta hope they are all healthy and sharp by then. Lidge is another matter entirely. At this point I have a hard time seeing him getting it back together. It looks like he’s going to end up having a lost season like when he was with Houston. I’m hoping Myers can make it back so we have an option there————but I think the aquisition of Lee, and the accompanying talk of the 1-2 punch that gives us at the top of the rotation for the playoffs, has pushed Hamels to the front of my mind for a couple reasons. First because if your starters are going deep in games then your bullpen becomes less of a concern. Second because in looking at the 1-2 punch, I saw the 1 on Friday but I didn’t see the 2 on Sunday and, based on how he’s been this season, I wonder if he’s going to be there, you know?
bski: re: your lengthy post on Hamels – note that his problems in that Giants game were not mechanical, really. he could have done very well. he just lost it mentally.
I hope you’re right, jkay. While not good, I’d rather that Hamels’ problem be mental/focus, where he has a much better chance of getting himself together, rather than physical, which could end up being a much more difficult/impossible thing to fight through successfully, not to mention drag on for years.
I read a quote from Hamels (I think it was in Sunday’s Inquirer) where he specifically talked about how he gets more focused down the stretch. He quickly added that that doesn’t mean he is not focused in all of his starts, just that he gets even more focused the later it gets in the season when the games really matter. Didn’t see it on Sunday though. Time’s a wastin’.
Is Hamels the second coming of Bo Belinsky? Has he been Mamie Van Duren-ed? Has he lost his Ray-Bans? If he needs the bright lights of October to become properly focused – get him outta town while his value is high. A lot of Philly doesn’t love him - unless he wins, of course. Even then there’s an asterisk. The dude’s got ‘tude, but not necessarily an admirable one.