Phillies Mid-Season Review

Last year, at this point in the season, the Phillies were 48-48. This year, they are 52-44 and sitting in first place. So why is it that I, and many other Phillies fans, feel almost the same as we did at this point last year? There might be a four-game difference, but this team is still inconsistent, occasionally maddening and not entirely playing up to its potential. At its current pace, the Phils are on course to win, you guessed it, 88 games. If you are keeping track at home, the last 7 Phillies seasons have yielded the following win totals: 89, 85, 88, 86, 86, 80 and 86. Hooray, mediocrity!

The Phillies showed signs early of breaking that trend, and doing what the Cubs, Red Sox and Angels are doing this year, and consistently winning. But then, in typical Philadelphia fashion, they spectacularly crashed down to earth, losing 6 straight series, and hitting so poorly that despite their May tear, they currently sit 18th in the MLB in BA (.257).

The bright side is, of course, that the Phillies have historically played much better in the second half, and they are in a better position than they have been the last couple years. The not-so-bright side is that the Mets are furiously catching up, and if they beat us, their fans will be more unbearable than normal.

What I plan to do here is grade each player’s performance for the first half of the year. The grade will be based on overall performance and performance against their expectations coming into the season.

Starting Rotation

Brett Myers, SP: Hmm…opening day starter to AA-Reading. This will be a difficult grade to give out. It seems like every year the Phillies come into the season with high expectations and don’t live up to them, there is one player you can single out as the main reason. 2002- Jose Mesa, 2003- Pat Burrell, 2004- Kevin Millwood, 2005- David Bell, 2006- Madson/Floyd/Franklin, Eaton got bailed out in 2007 and coming soon in 2008? Brett Myers! Myers disrespected the fans and his teammates by not properly preparing to be a starter this season. And since he’s been in the minors, I’ve heard enough quotes like (not exact quotes) “I think I’m doing better; when I leave the ball up, they are popping it up, not hitting it out” and “I prefer to be a reliever because you don’t have to research hitters, you can just go up there and pitch” that it is clear he does not have the mental make-up or intelligence to be a quality starter. That is, of course, until we trade him to the White Sox and he “figures it out” like Gavin Floyd did. Grade: F-

Cole Hamels, SP: The real #1 starter on this team, Hamels has been phenomenal all year. He has quite literally shouldered the load and is on pace for 240 IP, which would be the highest by a Phillie since Schilling in 1998. He is 2nd in the NL in WHIP, 3rd in K’s and 9th in ERA. His one area for improvement is the long ball. He has given up 18 this year, 7th in the NL. When he keeps his fastball down in the zone, he is nearly unhittable. Also, he is legitimately a better hitter than some of our position players. His .277 batting average would be the best by a Phillies pitcher since Herb Wehmeier in 1955.
Grade: A-

Jamie Moyer, SP: God bless Jamie Moyer. The 45-year-old continues to astound both fans and opposing batters, and will take a 3.95 ERA into the All-Star break, his best since 2003. He is entering uncharted territory here. Since 1910, only 2 pitchers have pitched 190+ innings in a season after their 45th birthday. Both (Charlie Hough and Phil Niekro) were knuckleballers. Grade: A

Kyle Kendrick, SP: Well, Kyle Kendrick has certainly proven my expectations for him wrong. Considering his low strike-out rate and lack of an out-pitch, I predicted he would be in the minor leagues by June. On May 22nd, with his ERA at 5.19, it looked like I might be right. But since then, Kendrick has gone 5-1 with a 3.80 ERA in 9 starts. He continues to work on a change up and developing his sinker. At 23, his determination to succeed is showing and hopefully it will enable him to continue to prove people like myself wrong.
Grade: B

Adam Eaton, SP: The popular stat that Phillies’ announcers had been throwing around about Adam Eaton was the number of “quality starts” (6 IP and 3 ER or better) the Phillies were getting from him. However, nearly half of those quality starts consisted of the absolute minimum to qualify, and the number of atrocious starts (most notably, his last two) outweight the number of actual decent starts. He is probably the least liked player on the team at this point and a poster boy for horrible contracts. His 2 years in Philly have consisted of the following: 13-18, 265.2 IP, 6.06 ERA, $16 million dollars. Cut the cord. Release him. Eat the money. Throw a minor leaguer into the rotation. There is no reason he should be on a Major League Baseball roster. His ERA over the last 2 seasons is 0.40 higher than anyone else in baseball with at least 200 IP. He is, literally, the worst starting pitcher in Major League Baseball. Grade: F

Starting Line-up

Jimmy Rollins, SS: In my season preview, I said that I didn’t think it was possible for Jimmy to put up another season like he did last year. Bold, I know. I did, however, think he would be a little better than this. He was injured for a little bit, so some of his numbers are misleading, but his SLG% is 100 points down from last year and his run production isn’t what it can be. I fully expect him to make a big run in the 2nd half. He’s not playing poorly and is still giving us gold-glove caliber defense. He also has 24 SBs without getting caught. Since 1950, the record for most SB’s in a season without getting caught is 35 by Sam Jethroe for Brooklyn. If Rollins didn’t attempt another steal, he would be 2nd. This decade, the most is 13 by Carlos Beltran and the Desi Relaford. Grade: B-

Shane Victorino, CF: With this being Shane’s third year in the league, and him being 27, you kind of hoped for some improvement, but it’s looking like Shane just is what he is. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. He’ll get you 40 SB, solid defense in the outfield, but really isn’t an ideal #2 hitter. He is 24 out of 33 qualified NL outfielders in SLG% (Michael Bourn is last, with a ridiculous .291 SLG%). Grade: B-

Chase Utley, 2B: Many experts have Utley as their MVP pick for the first half of the season. I’m not sure I would say that just yet, but he has been fantastic. Utley was THE best player in baseball for the first quarter of the season. He went through a real bad slump that saw his average drop from .320 to .289 and his OPS drop from 1.092 to .975. I’ve heard that he had a slight injury through that period, but hopefully he is through it now. He is on pace for for 43 HR and 117 RBI, both would be career highs. It’s hard to give him anything but an “A”, but I’m giving him an “A-” because I know he is a .300+ hitter. Grade: A-

Ryan Howard, 1B: How do you grade Ryan Howard? He leads the NL in HR and RBI, and he is on pace for 47 and 142 RBI. Yet, he is only hitting .234 and is on pace for 218 strikeouts, which would shatter the record he already holds. There have always been feast-or-famine type hitters, but NEVER, in the history of the game, to the degree Howard takes it. There is no precedent for grading (or paying) players like this. You’d never think that a player leading his league in HR and RBI could be disappointing, but you could say Howard has been. His OBP is 60 points behind his career average. His SLG % is 80 points behind. He’s been great recently, but we know he can be better. Also, as an FYI, Howard has only been in the league 3 full years, and he’s already 11th on the Phillies all-time HR list and 30th on the RBI list. 3 years, people. Grade: B+

Pat Burrell, LF: There has been some chatter on this site that Burrell is only playing well because it is a contract year. I’ve gotta say, Burrell has been playing pretty well for the last 4 years, and it’s really not an argument, it’s a fact. If you ask anyone around the team, Burrell has turned himself around from the bar-hoping, chain-smoking guy he was early in his career. He’s the first guy to spring training, the first guy to the stadium and has quietly improved himself the last couple years. In each of the last 3 years, his walk rate has gone up and his strikeout rate has gone down. He is on pace for 39 HR and 97 RBI after 30 and 97, 29 and 95 and 32 and 117 the last 3 years. He absolutely should have been an all-star, he’s been consistent for us for 4 years, he’s only 31; I say give him a 3-year, $36 million deal with a team option for a 4th. Grade: A

Geoff Jenkins, RF: I like Jenkins, but it’s hard to categorize him as anything but a dissapointment to this point. We got him to help replace Aaron Rowand’s run production, but he is on pace for only 45 RBI after averaging in the mid-80’s for his career. Hopefully he can catch a hot streak in the 2nd half. Grade: D

Pedro Feliz, 3B: Feliz has been streaky but has more or less been exactly as advertised, which is MUCH better than our last two 3B signings worked out (Bell and Helms). He has provided an upgrade both offensively and defensively at the hot corner. He is quietly 4th on the team in RBI, only 12 behind Burrell. Grade: B+

Carlos Ruiz, C: You are killing me Carlos, you are absolutely killing me. Carlos is entering 2002 Pat Burrell and 2005 David Bell territory where you hope he strikes out when there is a man on base so he doesn’t ground into a double play. We all know Carlos is better than a .202 hitter, but the question is, can he show it before Lou Marson gets here? He avoids the “F” because he continues to play solid defense behind the plate. Grade: D-

Bullpen

Brad Lidge, CL: The bite on his slider is back, and all of sudden we got the best closer in the NL for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary and Mike Costanzo. Thank you, Ed Wade. Lidge is a perfect example of how many things have to go right for a baseball team to make the playoffs. In spring training, when he got hurt, I don’t think anyone saw an all-star appearance in his future. If we were right, the Phillies would not be sitting in first right now. Lidge is 20 for 20 in save situations and is striking out 12.38 batters per 9 innings. If he continues at that rate, it will be the highest strikeout rate in Phillies history by a full K (the incarcerated Ugueth Urbina had 11.35 in 2005). Thank god we re-signed him before he hit the open market, where K-Rod will set the salary bar for closers at a new high.
Grade: A

J.C. Romero, RP: Don’t know about you guys, but I was a little scared J.C. would get his contract and then not pitch all that well. Thankfully, I was wrong. Romero has been just as solid as he was last year, with a 2.17 ERA in 37.1 IP. He still needs to work on his control (25 walks), but if he hasn’t figured it out at age 32, I’m not sure he will.
Grade: A-

Tom Gordon, RP: When we signed Tom Gordon after losing Billy Wagner, everyone agreed that the 3rd year of the contract would be worthless, so Gordon’s 5.16 ERA can’t really come as a surprise. It seems like Charlie Manuel has finally learned not to parade him out in close games, and you have to wonder if Gordon will even return from his current DL stint at age 40. Grade: C-

Chad Durbin, RP: Durbin has been a Godsend for the Phillies. He’s provided what Carlos Silva did in 2002, and Ryan Madson did in 2004: a long reliever who can keep you in games after your starter digs a hole. He has the 2nd best ERA of any reliever with 50+ innings this season (1.89), behind on Hong-Chih Kuo of the Dodgers. (Can we PLEASE sign a Japanese reliever one of these days?) Grade: A

Ryan Madson, RP: Madson has also enjoyed a rejuvination so far this year, posting a 2.77 ERA in 48.2 IP with zero losses. He is starting to get a lot more time in the late innings of close games; hopefully he can develop a comfort level in that situation and fill that need for a couple years. Grade: A-

Rudy Seanez and Clay Condrey, RP: Neither of these guys have really been put in tough situations this year, but they still do a good job mopping up and not messing up our ridiculous, MLB-best bullpen ERA (2.71). Condrey has been better than Seanez, but neither has done enough to justify seperate entries. Grade: A-

Bench

Jayson Werth, OF: When Shane Victorino went out with an injury, Werth almost hit his way into his spot permanantly. He, along with Burrell and Utley, carried the team through April and May. However, since his own injury, Werth has been mediocre (though he did provide the huge hit Friday night against the D-Backs). Werth has certainly made a case to be a starter, and it will be interesting to see what the Phillies do. In his current role, 36 RBI from a bench player at the all-star break is pretty good. Grade: A-

Chris Coste, C: Coste has been much better than our starting catcher, but to my knowledge, he doesn’t have the legs to be an everyday catcher. In his 3 seasons, and 500 ABs, with the Phillies, he has a .819 OPS, which would put him 4th among NL catchers this season. Grade: B+

So Taguchi, OF: I was excited when we signed Taguchi because it meant my nickname for Tad Iguchi, “the gootch,” wouldn’t die. Unfortunately that was the high point of the Taguchi era. Taguchi has been dissapointing, particular on the defensive end, where he has missed several very easy catches in minimal playing time. His .212 average is 58 points below his career mark. Grade: D

Eric Bruntlett, INF: Poor Eric Bruntlett didn’t get off to a great start with the fans, after committing a couple really bad errors right after J-Roll went on the DL. Since then, he’s been a decent pinch hitter and made a couple spectacular (one game-saving) defensive plays. Also, he looks like the greek god Poseidon, which is always good. Grade: B

Greg Dobbs, UTIL: What a find by Pat Gillick. Dobbs has turned into THE best pinch hitter in baseball. In his 41 pinch-hit ABs this season, he is hitting .439 with 11 RBI and a 1.076 OPS. All three of those numbers leads the majors among pinch hitters. Grade: A

Minor Leagues

Future Major Leaguers: Carlos Carrasco (SP, AA) , Lou Marson (C, AA), Adrian Cardenas (2B- A-Adv), Jason Donald (SS-AA), J.A. Happ (SP, AAA)

Promising Starts: Joe Savery (SP, A-Adv), Antonio Bastardo (SP, AA), Edgar Garcia (SP, AA)

Promising Starts, Dissapointing Since: Michael Taylor (OF, A-Adv), Drew Naylor (SP, A-Adv), Greg Golson (OF-AA), Drew Carpenter (SP, A-Adv)

Second Half Outlook

Obviously the grades I’ve handed out highlight what we already know: This team needs another starting pitcher. Some of the offensive players haven’t played up to their potential, but I think that will turn around. I believe Gillick will trade for a B-level starter (Daniel Cabrera is my prediction) who will help the team down the stretch. Unfortunately, I think that this season will be no different than the last few, and it will come down to the last week. I feel like this team should make the playoffs, and with another starter (and J.A. Happ replacing Eaton or Myers permanantly), we have the talent to do so. So, I will stick with my pre-season prediction and have us making the playoffs. Not sure if it will be as the wild-card (Sheets goes down for the Brewers?) or the division winner (win on the last day like last year?). I guess as fans, all we can do is watch and hope for the best.

July 15, 2008