As the Phillies embark on the off-season, the first thing we have to look at is the status of the 25-man roster and then we can get around to talking about specific players.
Right now, it’s safe to say that barring any trades, these players will be on the opening day 25-man roster:
Those are the definites in my opinion, but there are many other options in-house not set in stone.
There are 4 players who are ours if want them, either with contract options or arbitration…
- Pedro Feliz
- Chad Durbin
- Clay Condrey
- Eric Bruntlett
There are also 6 minor leaguers who will / should have a fair shot to make the team out of camp…
- Kyle Drabek
- Antonio Bastardo
- Scott Mathieson
- Sergio Escalona
- Drew Carpenter
- John Mayberry Jr.
Of the first four, I expect Condrey to be back and I’m pretty sure Durbin will be too. Of the bottom six, I expect (and will be angry if this isn’t the case) that Bastardo and Mathieson, two young very live arms, will both make the squad.
One player I did not mention, Jamie Moyer, is under contract and could be our 5th starter, but I don’t expect that he will be fully healthy by spring training.
So where do that leave us?
If all 4 of those relievers are added to the chart, that fills up all the relief roles unless Charlie carries 13 pitchers, which I am going to assume he will (or Mathieson or Bastardo won’t make the team).
That means the holes that have to be filled are…
- 5th starter
- Third Baseman
- Middle Reliever
- Back-up Catcher
- Utility Infielder
A quick look at the available free agents yields the following options to keep an eye on. I’m not going to get into exactly what I think Ruben Amaro should do, but I will bold players that particularly interest me.
5th Starter: Justin Duchscherer, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Bradan Looper (there is very, very little in the FA market that would be a good value)
Third Baseman: Miguel Tejada, Placido Polanco, Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, Chone Figgins, Melvin Mora
Middle Reliever: Luis Ayala, Joe Beimel, Rafael Betancourt, Kiko Calero, Scott Eyre, Kevin Gregg, Bob Howry, LaTroy Hawkins, Brandon Lyon, Chan Ho Park, Jose Valverde, Rafael Soriano
Back-Up Catcher: Josh Bard, Jason LaRue, Jose Molina, Mike Redmond, Brian Schneider, Gregg Zaun
Utility Infielder: Ronnie Belliard, Kevin Millar, Chad Tracy, Adam Everett, Geoff Blum, Jerry Hairston Jr., Ryan Freel, Frank Catalanotto
So you can see we have a lot of free agents options for third base and middle relief, but not as many for the other areas, particular a reasonably priced 5th starter.
So there is your jumping off point for the 2010 off-season. What do you think and what players do you want (or not want) to see in red pinstripes as we defend our NL pennant next year?
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I’m a little surprised you metioned Drabek as having a fair shot to make the big club. And if he were to make it, I’m not sure why he would be anything other than the 5th starter.
This may well be flawed logic, but I would think that if he were part of the 2010 plan, he’d have been part of the 40 man squad in September.
I know they wanted to shut him down for the year, but a sampling of the big league life for next year might have made for a sensible prologue.
Those are actually questions even though here aren’t any question marks in there.
Regarding Myers, this is a crapshoot, but I wonder if the Cubs might be interested in him as a closer.
I assume you have the following link or something similar that is as effective or better since I wanted to doublecheck what kind of money Myers was coming off of and referenced it.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/philadelphia-phillies_18.html
I don’t think Drabek has any business on the opening day roster, and I don’t think the Phillies do either. But, I figured some people would broach the subject, so I put him in there.
For what it’sworth, I just finished reading a column by Joe Sheehan of SI.com who thought Drabek might follow the Happ route of pen to starter which potentially shores up the pen problem (his words). Well, in part. We’ll see.
I think Park and Eyre (given his elbow is OK) should be back. They fit the team’s personality and were both very good bullpen arms down the stretch.
A couple of guys you mentioned I was thinking about were Ronnie Bellaird and Greg Zaun. Upgrades over Bruntlet and Bako in my opinion.
Pete, I saw you didn’t hoghlight Beltre. How come?
I’d like some more right handed hitting on this team and someone really fast who can pinch run. All this team needs is some minor tweaks, national radio mentioned the Phillies as being one of the 5 teams as a possible landing point for Roy Holiday. I think that’s nonsense and just a way for Roy to up his asking price.
I’d be willing to bring back Pedro Felix, his glove is pretty awesome and if we add money elsewhere on the team, we can likely get him back for not much money since he is such a one-dimensional player.
Chris McC-
I’m not anti-Beltre, but he is a guy that seems to be always injured one way or another (usually playing through it) and is coming off a year where he was injured and had an OPS lower than Feliz.
If he’s healthy (a big if) he’s certainly of interest to me, because he def. has an elite glove and averaged 25 and 88 with an OPS around .800 in 2007 and 2008.
But with other, more reliable options out there, I didn’t highlight him. But, I def thought about it and wouldn’t be against signing him if the price is right.
Pete, I haer ya, thanks for your thoughts.
This is a nice little rib shot at the Yankees by my favorite writer in america, Rick Reilly. http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=4629151
Ken,
from previous discussion……
You’re correct that I did mention that Amaro said he talked with Lee’s agent about an extension (I did not provide a link, though). I found it in this article from Todd Zolecki. Here is the exact statement:
Ruben Amaro Jr. said they have spoken with Lee’s agent a couple times during the postseason, and said they would consider thinking about a contract extension for Lee.
I’m sure it’s minor, like you said. Weird that Lee’s agent says the Phils have not spoken to him while Amaro clearly states to Zolecki that they have.
I also came across this article, by Jon Heyman of si.com. In it, he speculates on what kind of contract Lee might be in line for right now and what the Phils might need to offer/what they might be able to get him for. Here is the crux of it:
Two agents (not Lee’s guy) offered their take on Lee’s value during his brilliant, 122-pitch Game 1 mastery that included 10 strikeouts, no walks, an unearned run and some eye-catching plays.
Agent No. 1: “His option is obviously a bargain … But the question is, what will the market bear for him? He is a few years older than CC but is elite and a proven big-game winner. He’s still not seen as the overwhelming force with the infinitely high ceiling, so I would put him behind Johan and CC and I would guess $18 to $20 million a year for five years.”
Agent No. 2: “He will get less than Zito or he will have to wait. He will get five … $15 to $17 million.”
The contract that gave him peace of mind when he struggled so unexpectedly in 2007 contains that option, which delays free agency until after 2010 and could prevent him from getting well into nine figures. The guess here is that Philly adds $91 million over five years, making it an even $100 million over six. Whatever they give him, with Lee’s obvious drive and repertoire, it will probably turn out to be another bargain in a career of them.
What are the chances of Pedro Martinez returning or is it solely based on his conditioning for potentially playing a full year?
Pete,
Sorry to bother you. Submitted a post but it has not appeared here. There were only 2 links in it, but it must have gotten stuck in your spam filter again anyway.
Rob,
Yeah, I think the question with Pedro would be his health (it is for me anyway). I mean, he couldn’t stay healthy with us for the two months he was here, so I’m not too optimistic that his body could withstand the rigors of taking the mound every 5th day for 6 months, not to mention the postseason, and pitch consistently and effectively for the duration.
TRR-
I doubt Pedro returns. He’ll want a 2-year deal I’d guess, and he looked completely wiped in Game 6. I would say there is a 25% he would make more than 20 starts for us next year if he resigned and a 5% chance in the 2nd year of the contract. I love Pedro, but I don’t think he can hold up.
bski-
I approved it. No idea why it got caught.
5 year extension for Lee? That’s from age 33-37 at $20 million a year.
I would have some trepidation signing that. But, less so than with other pitchers because Lee seems to have a really smooth delivery and isn’t a huge injury risk.
Personally, I wouldn’t sign Lee long-term as I can’t stand pitchers who run off the mound. Besides, he’s got that Jamie Moyer snot-nosed quality that grates. One of ‘em’s gotta go. I give him the nod over the Souderton sage – for 2010 only -because he pitches at a near cheating-fast pace, making his games’ durations
bearable. I wonder: Will he be as souped-up next season as he performed this season, July on,but for a 3-start slide?
What’s your take on Brad Lidge? I know the Phillies have signed him long-term, but with his performance this season, is there any chance that they try to trade him for a 5th starter somewhere?
JFein-
I don’t think Lidge is trade-able. Too big a contract for someone who had one of the worst regular seasons for a reliever in history.
One solution would be to sign someone like Brandon Lyon who has closed before and could step in if Lidge falters again.
Found some injury updates:
Leftfielder Raul Ibanez will have a sports hernia surgically repaired, and left-hander Scott Eyre will have loose bodies removed from his left elbow. Both surgeries will be Monday.
and the biggie:
Brad Lidge will have surgery Wednesday to remove a loose body from his right elbow. He also will have his right flexor/pronator tendon evaluated. If the tendon needs to be repaired, Lidge is unlikely to be ready to pitch by the beginning of Spring Training – although he should be ready a short time after. If the tendon is fine, he should be ready to pitch when camp opens in February in Clearwater, Fla.
That Lidge report looks ominous, especially as his mound mentality this season wasn’t the sturdiest to begin with. Phils had better shore up closer spot with another. Myers, once a success and then an option, must’ve really gotten under organization’s skin to effect release.
Why no mention of Kyle Kendrick in any capacity? He is under contract and pitched reasonably well when recalled n August and September. While I see his future as likely with another organization (that is, he’s trade bait). he could end up as the fifth starter, at least until Drabek is ready.
Does Curt Schiiling have any credibility amongst you? If this opinion carries any validity, does it make you wonder if any of the Phils organization might share this view?
WEEI interviewers: Should Cliff Lee have started three games?
Schilling: I’m still a little puzzled by that one. But the fact of the matter is he didn’t want to. I’ve been in enough situations to know that when your ace is saying, “I want the ball, I’m good to go, I can do it” on three days’ rest, you don’t give the ball to somebody else. Not in October, no way. I think had he wanted to, he would have. But I don’t think it was something he wanted to do.
Odds to win the 2010 World Series
New York Yankees 11/4
Boston Red Sox 13/2
Philadelphia Phillies 9/1
Los Angeles Angels 10/1
St. Louis Cardinals 10/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 11/1 – Bodog
Schilling’s right. Lee weasled out by saying , [paraphrase] “I’ve never started on 3 days rest before, but I’ll pitch whenever they want me to”… now there’s a clever “warrior” … read: go ahead, risk damaging your best pitcher and one of your biggest assets. Truthteller Curt won’t win many elections but he’s certainly worth a listen.
the OC register has an article today saying that Chone Figgins would likely get a contract in the area of 4 years, $40 million. That’s more than he is worth, in my opinion
It’s official. The Phils have declined Feliz’ option, so they are definitely looking to bring in somebody else. It really is their only opportunity to add to their lineup.