Through all this off-season talk about the Phillies, the crazy deals, the contract extensions, the projections, there is one topic that hasn’t really been breached, and recent events are causing it to rear it’s ugly head in the last couple days.
What if this is the year the luck runs out?
No has even mentioned, as far as I can see, the possibility of this team missing the playoffs this year. And please be clear that this post isn’t to say that I think we will (I still think we are the NL favorites), but a lot has gone on the last couple weeks that brought that unthinkable thought into my head.
Consider…
- Brad Lidge is starting the year on the DL, and just had a very ominous “cortisone shot to the elbow” that they claimed was nothing – but clearly was something. You know why? Because it was a cortisone shot into your pitching arm. Ryan Madson couldn’t close last year. Can he turn it around this year, or will Danys Baez (1 run allowed all spring) have to be a savior?
- Also on the DL, Joe Blanton. This thrusts both Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick into the rotation. Jamie’s ERA as a starter last year was 5.34. Kyle Kendrick’s ERA the last time he was a full-time starter was 5.49. Couple this with the uncertainly of J.A. Happ’s 2nd season and suddenly the bottom of the rotation looks a little scary.
- Cole Hamels last 2 spring starts? 10.1 IP, 16 H, 12 ER, 4 K.
- Raul Ibanez line for the spring? 6 for 49 (.122), 3 extra-base hits.
- Jayson Werth? 9 for 54 (.167), with 3 extra base hits.
- We learned recently that Jose Contreras isn’t going to be able to pitch on back-to-back days anytime soon. He’s also given up 20 hits in 12 IP. OK then. Also, J.C. Romero is starting the year on the DL and his replacement Antonio Bastardo has been real spotty (5.59 ERA, but with 16 K’s in 9.2 IP).
- Add to all this uncertainty that the Braves had the best spring training possible (Heyward and Hanson look great, Tim Hudson and Troy Glaus look like it’s 2006) and the Marlins aren’t look too shabby either.
So there is the negative look. Just trying to keep myself prepared for the worst so I don’t lose my mind.
BUT – since it is so close to the season and I can’t be all negative. Here’s are some positive takeaways from the spring that haven’t really been talked about…
- The bench! Greg Dobbs (.333 BA.), Ben Francisco (4 HR, .277 BA), Brian Schneider (.333 BA) and Ross Gload (.255 BA) all enjoyed good springs. Dobbs and Francisco are particularly promising as Dobbs can be a real asset when he’s on, and Francisco could see a lot of starting time this year.
- Baez (see above) and Chad Durbin. Durbin was great all spring and might end up very important if Contreras ends up sucking.
- David Herndon, Rule 5 draft pick, was called the Phillies’ “best reliever of the spring” by an opposing scout. He only gave up 7 hits and 1 run in 11.2 IP. He has a hard sinker that would play great in our ballpark. Hopefully we found a gem.
- Despite Bastardo’s struggles, 16 K in 9.2 IP is a great sign he can be dominant if he gets his control straightened out.
- Read on BaseballProspectus the other day that Tyson Gillies really turned some heads this spring. Here’s the quote:
One scout who saw Gillies this spring is convinced he’s the real deal, if not much more. ”He was the talk of Phillies’ camp early on,” said the scout. “He’s very toolsy, he tracks balls well in center field, he throws well, he’s a great runner, and he’ll surprise you with some power.” The scout added that Gillies was so good that scouts began to see him as one of the top players in the system. ”Here’s how good he was—after a couple days, scouts started talking about him versus [top prospect] Dominic Brown,” the scout said. “He doesn’t have Brown’s upside, but he plays center field and I’m not sure that Gillies wouldn’t be better in the big leagues right now should an emergency come up.”
- Polanco could really be an asset at the top of this line-up. He looked rejuvenated, hitting .386 in the spring. Add to that that many are saying Rollins looked poised for a huge season, and Utley and Howard might have a lot of runs to knock in.
So there you go, feel free to talk about Monday’s game here. I will start my series review / preview right after the Nationals series. Let me know if there is anything you guys want see there. I’m going to add a “prospect watch” feature in it, but that’s pretty much it. Here is an example of one from last year to refresh your memory.
i feel like teams picked to win the world series rarely pull it off. the favorite never wins. (with the exception of the yankees) good news everyone! 6 or 7 of espn’s so called ‘experts’ just picked the phils to win the world series….i hope this team wins 110 games.
not sure what happened, looks like the end of the post got cut off before. it’s back now.
From Jason Stark who picks Phils to win WS – great article on espn.com. It really puts into focus how meesed up this team was last year and STILL got to the WS. Even with Lidge and Romero questionable it is hard to imagine it facing as many trials. As Jason, says – “this team a a ton better then either o the last two.” Just buckle up and enjoy the ride. My only hope is that the WS victory comes over the Yanks or Boston.
“And a couple of ticks down the lineup, Ryan Howard (.306 spring average, .882 OPS) had such an eye-opening offensive approach this spring that he caused one scout to predict: “If he keeps this approach all year long and remembers there’s another side to the field, he’s going to hit .300 and he’s going to win the MVP by a mile.”
Add it all up, and this will be the only team in baseball that will start eight All-Stars on Opening Day. But beyond its star power, it’s a group that is well aware it has a chance to become the first NL team since the 1942-1944 Cardinals to play in three straight World Series, and a team that plays with tremendous sense of purpose every night. “The chemistry on that team,” said one scout, “just works.”
Oh, they’re far from perfect. I recognize that a lot could go wrong. They lack pitching depth. And their bullpen has a shaky look, with Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero both starting the season on the disabled list. But here’s my question: This team blew 12 saves in the ninth inning alone last year — and still won the division handily. So can this bullpen possibly do more to undermine this team than last year’s bullpen did to undermine that team? I don’t think that’s possible.”
Of the issues listed in the post, some of the concerns are based on anemic springs. Spring training can be like politics. It’s your ally when you want, you ignore it when it works against you. I find myself guilty of that at times. I’ll give the bennie of the doubt to Werth and Ibanez, and uphold Kendrick’s terrific spring. Complain to me about Werth and Ibanez after 10 games. Particularly Ibanez. People seem more concerned about him. But one additional concern is a spring training performance I remain show me on. The offensive side of Jimmy Rollins game. He’s been around the .300 mark, but for a guy who is a mediocore leadoff type hitter, the Phils hardly need him taking it to an even lower level with a 2009 .200 average over a 2-3 month stretch.
Pete mentioned Troy Glaus having a very good spring. I can see him as a viable candidate for Comeback Player of the Year (Alfonso Soriano and Jim Edmonds come to mind as other viable candidates). But as of the last time I checked, a week or so back, Glaus was hitting all singles. That doesn’t mean he won’t whack enough homers to help, but the Braves offense still remains questionable. the J-Hey kid not withstanding.
Sunday will produce a number of season preditions by beat writers and the like. Some have come out already. Respected Joel Sherman has Doc as Cy Young winner, and RyHo as MVP. Sherman thinks he can hit 50 homers, and can .300. He’s pessimistic about Polanco at 3rd for the Phils. Rosenthal, who prefaces on ths silliness of season predictions has the White Sox winning the World Series.
Howard, by the way, is a funny guy. Or the world is funny. Everyone else clamors for him to cut back his high K total. Asked about it during a live in game broadcast on ESPN, he nonchalantly explained its just part of his game. Sort of a tradeoff, if you will for his 45 HR, 145 ribbie routine. I don’t imagine we’ll see fewer slow walks back to the dugout than usual.
I understand journalists are mandated to do season predictions, and I admit to reading them with the same eagerness as most peeps even though they are even sillier now with so much importance on sellers ridding free agents to be by the 7/31 trade deadline. Attention Jake Westbrook. That said, I will offer some inclinations for the upcoming year, and forget I said them when they fade into the night.
– As the season starts, the Phils have a lot of sentiment saying they get back to the World Series. Come mid season, the Rockies will wear that weight on their shoulders.
– Some years ago, circa pre wild card as memory serves, the Braves and Giants each won like 104 and 103 games, in National League West, but the Giants didn’t make the playoffs. Location, location, location, they say. The NL East won’t reach that numeric level, but the Phils and Braves could both be well into the 90s in a dogfight. The wild card should come out of the NL Easr.
- The AL Central is a misunderstood division. The Twins are a popular pick, but common sense leads you to believe they wind up with several doubleheaders off rain outs. Not imposiible to overcome, but a challenge. The Tigers are better than popular concensus. So the truth may lie in the White Sox. I apply the word may for a reason
- The AL West is all Anaheim all the time. The debate is who finishes 2nd, and do they maybe have the fortune to be the wildcard off the Rays Yanks and Red Sox beating each other up.
- Kudos to Mark McGwire for weathering the media storm and making it to Opening Day as Redbird hitting coach. Maybe the Cards shouldn’t have hired him in the first place, maybe they should have. I thought he might have to walk away by now. He’s done some things that seem stupid, but also has come across as a good guy in a lot of ways. I think he’ll manage the national tour of media that the regular season travels bring about.
Opening Day has always been my favorite holiday. For some reason, two of my most vivid recollections lean to the morbid side. About 20 years ago now, umpire John McSherry, calling balla and strikes at Riverfront died of heart attack. To those understanding the strength of the romantic appeal of baseball, there was positivity of the way McSherry went. On the field. On Opening Day. Nice.
Then there was Opening Day for the Phils in 1961. Eddie Sawyer was the manager. The Phils lost. Sawyer quit after the game saying he was 49, and wanted to be 50. The Phils lost 23 in a row later that year. Good call, Skip.
Finally, nothing like sports creates cliches. The fall backs of you can’t win them all, or its only one game are understandable since nobody wins 162. But ith the importance of home field for the playoffs, let alone the Braves and Marlins in the division, let alone maybe needing to win a tight wild card race, the obvious injury bug is equalled as an opponent by complacency for the Phils. Last year, quite oten, they played to the competition. They were downright crummy at home at times. They lost 8 of 9 at one point. They lost 4 in a row to Houston. They would build to a 6-8 game lead, and never apply killer’s instinct at that time. Somehow, they got to the Series, and that it was a repeat was even more of an achievement. Most of the team has been here for the last 2 great years. They can live off that glory forever. Great stories for the grandkids, never have to buy a drink or meal in Philly and so on. The way I look at it is this. Their premiere pitcher did not have to come here. He passed up more money than we can count to do so. He’s never played in a playoff game at the MLB level. He needs to be in the playoffs, he needs a World Series ring. Understand the difficulty of repeating, let alone becoming the first 3peat League champ since 1944. Play like you understand that, and get it done for Doc. Losing one game because you didn’t bring your game face to the park coud be critical. Don’t lose any for that reason.
Best name I’ve seen released so far for potential bullpen help. Any thoughts?
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courteousy MLBTradeRumors.com
The Rockies have released righty reliever Justin Speier, tweets Tracy Ringolsby of Inside the Rockies. Ringolsby says that Speier will retire if he can’t land a big league job, but the door is open for him at Colorado’s Triple-A affiliate.
Speier, 36, signed a minor league deal with the Rockies back in January, and posted a solid 3.42 ERA with a 12/3 K/BB ratio in 13 innings this spring. The last time he was an effective big league reliever was back in 2007, when he posted a 2.88 ERA in 50 innings during the first year of the four year, $18MM he signed with the Angels.
Anaheim still owes him $5.25MM this season, which he’ll add to the $20MM Baseball-Reference.com says he’s earned to this point in his career
I’m curious if anyone would change their vote on this site regarding the Phils most important player now that time has passed and the season is upon us.
Hamels won by a bigger landslide than Nixon beat McGovern by back when the Pirates were good.
One thing that prompts that question is I see where both Hal Bodley and Peter Gammons picked Chase Utley as the NL MVP. I have a hard time envisioning Utley placing above Ryan Howard in that field, but its not that impossible. Yet, those 2 got very few votes in the poll. Personally, I didn’t vote in the poll because too many players are too important, so I wouldn’t change from that view at this time.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100331&content_id=9035596&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
Dave Van Dyck’s Chicago Trib NL East preview
Predicted finish, records
1. Phillies, 93-69
2. Braves, 92-70
3. Marlins, 84-78
4. Nationals, 78-84
5. Mets, 74-88
Elsewhere, he picks the Cards over the Cubs by 5, and the Dodgers over the Giants and Rox in NL West.
Phil Rogers AL preview is compelling, for lack of a better word. AL West for example
1. Rangers, 88-74
2. Angels, 83-79
3. Mariners, 75-87
4. Athletics, 70-92
He’s got Clint Hurdle as Mgr of the Year candidate, which is all you need to know how he thinks Ron Washington’s year goes, Red Sox by 4 and 5 over NY and TB, Twins in Central.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/sc-spt-0331-nl-east-preview-20100403,0,5954452.story