September 22, 2014

Phillies Payroll Analysis: 2009-2012

baseball_money

Note: ReclinerGM has a permanent link to an updated Payroll Analysis and Organizational Depth Chart here. There is also an easy access link on the side of our main page.

With Ryan Howard’s contract on the books, the Phillies are pretty much done with their 2009 roster, unless Nomar does decide to play in 2009. It is clear that the Phillies have a 3-year plan, as they have it set up so that all of their key players are locked in until at least 2011. Here is a look at how the Phillies payroll should stack up for the next 4 years. I’ve added $10 million extra to each year because of extra things that go into payroll (like Tom Gordon’s buy-out this year and players on the 40-man, not 25-man roster) that I can’t calculate perfectly. I also put in around the league minimum as place holders for the 25-man roster spots that aren’t under contract.

philliescontracts

Here are my thoughts…

  • No more calling the Phillies cheap. In a horrid economic climate, they increased payroll by $30 million to keep their homegrown players.
  • Despite dropping the salaries of Eaton, Feliz, Myers and Jenkins (whose 2010 number should be green, sorry), the Phillies will have very little wiggle room in 2010 due to increased salaries for Howard, Utley, Ibanez, Hamels, Victorino, Madson, Blanton, Werth and Durbin.
  • Because of this, the pitching situation in 2010 will be interesting. We will have Hamels, Blanton, Moyer and Happ under contract, and very little money to spend. Hopefully Carrasco can be ready, I’m not sure Myers will be back when I look at this chart.
  • In 2011, we have around $88.5 million dedicated to just 8 players. That means we are going to have to round out our roster with 17 other players, and about $40 million to do it with. That should be interesting.
  • 2012? I know it’s far off, but there’s no doubt that will be an interesting off-season. Only Utley is signed that far ahead. Rollins, Howard, Hamels, Victorino and potentially Lidge will all be free agents that winter and we will a lot of money to play with, much like the Yankees did this time around.
  • We are pretty much looking at our team for the next 3 years. Barring a trade of Howard, I don’t see us making any big acquisitions the next 3 years.

What do you guys and gals think?

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Comments

  1. bski says:

    You’re right Pete, we’re definitely not cheap anymore.  Amaro said that there is no way they would be able to spend like this had they not won the world series.

    Best case scenario for keeping this going longer than just the next couple years:

    We keep winning.  This will keep the fans coming to CBP and keep the coffers full so we continue to have big money to spend.
    We see the top notch prospects we kept, rather than using them in trades for the likes of Sabathia or Harden, work there way up to the big club over the next couple years, fill holes on the roster, and allow us to possibly trade some of our big guns to address other needs, all for less money than we would need to pay a free agent or to keep an older veteran with the club.
    Use this time with a stable big league roster to our advantage by building up our farm system as much as possible.  A talent loaded minor league system dovetails nicely into the previous point.
    Keep playing “Gillickball”.  That is continually finding cost effective, under the radar guys who were not given much of a chance (Dobbs), were given up on (Werth), or were squeezed off the roster (Romero) with their former clubs.  To that end, I hope that either Gillick remains and advisor for quite a while or that Amaro has absorbed and embraced the philosophy enough to be successful with it on his own.

  2. Drolz says:

    Hey Pete,
    Thanks for the data and the analysis. Nice to see the core of this team sticking together for the next couple of years. Amaro admitted that financially it’s a bit of a “calculated risk” but if the team maintains its level of play and if the farm system comes through, it’ll work.
    By the way, Darren Daulton called. He said don’t worry about 2012.  :)  

  3. Michael Donnelly says:

    in what sane universe do we pay Moyers more than Hamels ?  apparently this one for the combination of 2009 and 2010 amazingly bizarre
    Ibanez is getting way too much money
    Why did Jenkins agree to drop his salary by $5.5 million in 2010 ?

    Big Picture how do the Phillies afford 2009 and 2010 ?  Gives you an idea of the kind of money they’ve been sticking in their pockets for years and years

  4. Jimmy says:

    This is a good link for in depth salary specifics.

  5. jjg says:

    Chart and recent news makes me wonder how many of the above 24 (Romero disqualified) wealthy “heroes” play without external enhancement, in an all-natural state.  It would be interesting to learn that mysterious factoid.  I think local fan base would be surprised by the truth.  MLB is drifting towards pro wrestling as an entertainment medium, only it’s much more profitable.  The Baseball Encyclopedia has been necessarily revised to include “wooly” mammoth HRs and its actors.  Peanuts and Crackerjack … how quaint a notion. 

  6. J Dubbz says:

    Pete…Great job on the recent baseball posts.  You get the articles flowing as soon as the news hits the press.  Keep up the good work.

    With all the activity regarding contract length and structure, it is apparent that this team is going full throttle right now.  If the Phils had a “prime” we are witnessing it in 2009.  If all stay healthy, there is no reason why we can’t compete for the pennant for the next 3 years.  It’s an exciting time for us fans, and it makes up for years of lackluster play and dissapointment year after year.  The 1993 Phils were a miracle and not supposed to happen, but this team has the talent, and the expectations that comes with it, to go out and win a few more championships.

    Anybody have any idea what the Phils as an organization bring in yearly in terms of revenue?  What about as compared to costs (profit margin)?

    Baseball Prospectus has the Mutts finishing 5 games ahead of the Phils to win the NL East.  Looks like their credibility is about as solid as A-Rods.

  7. jjg says:

    Revenue gain?  Monty & the Teflonics (attribution:  Bill Conlin, Philadelphia Daily News) would never reveal that net figure.  You can safely assume it to be a windfall.  Owning the Phillies is not a mere hobby, even for the well-heeled.

  8. J Dubbz says:

    I was hoping that Bill Giles might frequent this wonderful blog and reward us with such insight because of the knowledge and true fanfulness (if thats a word) that is apparent here.

  9. Pete says:

    mdonnelly – That’s a buy-out on Jenkins. not a salary. It should be shaded green.

  10. Pete says:
  11. Pete says:

    found this interesting…

    Richie (Philly): Better chance of being in the top of the rotation for the Phillies in years to come…Carrasco or Drabek? 

    SportsNation John Manuel: (2:54 PM ET ) Carrasco, if only because Drabek might be Lidge’s successor as Philly’s closer. 

  12. bball says:

    Speaking of money…not sure the Phils wouldn’t have been better off with Abreu for what he sign for today than Ibanez. 5 mil for Abreu isn’t a bad deal. I think the problem with his time in Philly was he Thome and Burrell were supposed to be “the man”. If he was batting 6th or maybe 7th for us now his 20 hrs and good OBP would be a bonus. 

    But I’ll give Amaro the benefit of the doubt…especially considering all the intangeables with Abreu. (and the fact he would never come back here)  I can’t criticize the guy with all the signings he got done… although if he did one  thing wrong, I think it’s that he misjudged free agent values. He sign all of our free agents early in the off-season and since their value has plummetted. Guys are signing for chump change now that spring training is around the corner.

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