As we are nearing the mid point of the season, the minor leaguers have had enough time to give us some meaningful numbers.
I was originally going to put all the prospects into one post, but then I chose 31 prospects to write about, and by the time I finish, the stats will be old…
Here are the 4 categories…
Get excited about… - Guys who are off to great starts who could have an significant impact on our MLB roster some day
Get worried about… - Either disappointing high-level prospects (who may get better), or guys I’m just writing off completely at this point
Keep an eye on… – Some good, some bad, but worth…well…keeping an eye on
Worth noting… – Guys who are unlikely to make a huge impact on our roster, but either have a chance to have a cup of coffee, or, are notable draft picks who aren’t really prospects at the moment…
Let’s start off with “Get excited about…”
Stats as of 6/7
Get excited about…
Trevor May, RHP
While the ERA and WHIP aren’t outstanding, they are more impressive considering May gave up 8 ER, 11 H and 5 BB in his first 10 IP of the season. Since then, he’s been the best pitcher in the system with 78 strikeouts and just 39 hits in 56 IP. That’s exactly twice as many strikeouts as hits. That’s ridiculous. The Achilles heel for May has always been his walks, and while 4.5 per 9 isn’t good, it’s an improvement over his 5.4 last year. If he can continue to reign that in just a little bit, it’s clear he has the stuff to be an elite pitching prospect.
Jonathan Pettibone, RHP
Most of the hype around the Clearwater rotation was centered around May, Jarred Cosart and Brody Colvin – but Pettibone (and Julio Rodriguez, more on him later) has been just as good, if not better, in many senses. He leads the team in IP and ERA (as a starter). He’s a different pitcher than May, far more reliant on his control than pure stuff, but at only 20 years old, he’s still developing.
Sebastian Valle, C
There has always been a lot of hype around Valle’s bat, and he started to pull it together last year with a strong finish and 16 HRs. This year, after an OK start, he’s shot in the stratosphere. Since May 1st, he’s sporting a .426 batting average (40 for 94) and 1.016 OPS. The big red flag though? Only 2 walks the entire season. TWO! If he were a qualified major leaguer, that would be the lowest walk-rate for any hitter since 1915. I’ve also read mixed reports on his defense as a catcher and whether or not he can stay there long term.
Julio Rodriguez, RHP
Quick! Who is the better prospect? These numbers are damn near identical, so you’d usually go with the younger guy with the higher K/9 rate, right? The top pitcher is Jarred Cosart, and bottom is Julio Rodriguez. Obviously there is a scouting aspect to this, and we know Cosart has an elite arm – but the fact that Rodriguez is step-for-step with him numbers wise might improve his prospect status moving forward.
Jarred Cosart, RHP
You can just see the first line above for his numbers. He’s been very good (though his K/9 and BB/9 rates are somewhat disappointing) but right now the most important thing for him is to stay healthy, and he has. He has been better of late, allowing just 2 runs in his last 4 starts combined with 24 K’s in 26.1 IP.
Domingo Santana, OF
The numbers are going to blow you away – but with a high-ceiling, very young prospect like Santana (who is still only 18), you are just looking for improvements. Last year in his time at Lakewood, Domingo had a .182/.322/.297 line and 76 K’s in 165 ABs there last year. This year, he has a .267/.309/.461 line with 62 K’s in 165 ABs. Would like to see the walk rate get back up, but it’s a good start.
Freddy Galvis, SS
Like with Santana, these numbers aren’t that great. But with Galvis, who is an elite talent with his glove, you are just looking for some improvement. Previously, Galvis had never had an OPS over .588 in an minor league season. Because of this, I didn’t even include him in my top-20 prospects prior to the season. So far this year, he’s improved his OPS by over 100 points, and sits at .699. He still needs to improve, but at just 21, and in AA, he’s got a little time.
Mike Schwimer, RHP
Is Schwim the next Mike Stutes? He certainly has a good shot. He has put up GREAT K/9 numbers everywhere he’s been (271 K’s in 198.1 career innings) and he’s currently among the leaders (if not THE leader) in the International League in K/9. Would love to hear an explanation as to why guys like David Herndon, Danys Baez and Kyle Kendrick are on the MLB roster, while this guy is making fools of people in AAA.
I don’t wanna jump the gun on the keep an eye on category, but by the same token, you’ve got some low level minor league talent in the most favorable category, so I’m wondering where Lisalberto Bonilla fits in.
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=570810
Yup – he’s a sleeper. I have him in the “keep an eye” category. His sample size is pretty small for “get excited” – all the guys above have been around for a little.
They still call it MLBTraderumors.com, but for about 3 weeks now, they might as well have renamed it Twinsrumors.com. That’s how long it’s been since the baseball following populous decided that the Minnesota Twins were sellers.
The Twins were playing every game as though it were a playoff game against the Yankees. Their record had dropped to a Twinberwolvish .333. The dreaded duo of Capps and Nathan was making a valiant effort to lead the league in blown saves. Justin Morneau was treating pitched balls with the tenderness of the concussion driven headache he had felt a need for. Joe Mauer was looking to replace Joltin Joe in Simon and Garfunkel’s next hit.
All this was compounded by the angel watching over the Cleveland Tribe deciding the city needed some angelic loving after LeBron had ditched the shores of Lake Erie.
And it’s hardly like the Twins have turned it around. Carl Pavano and Fransisco Luriano have put together seasons that wouldn’t qualify them for rotation spots on the 1962 New York Mets. But they have crept to within 11 games of the lead, even though they still have 642 teams to pass to get to first place in the division.
But suddenly, there is at least 1 element of hope for the Twinkies. If you look at their current standing, you’ll find they have played 40 games on the road. And 22 games at home. Never mind that they are 7-15 at home so far. That would kill any hope going down in Twinland.
It’s a helluva longshot. But considering their tradition, you just can’t help but think that the Twins, through a lot of home games, and their historically proven know how to win might at least tease with a kinda sorta back in it level before it’s over. Rushing them to seller status might be one of the bigger overreactions to this baseball season.
this post was supposed to go in the last Phils thread as opposed to this specific topic. Not that it has anything to do with the Phils, but now its even more misplaced. Sorry about that.