- The Phillies did exactly what I didn’t want them to do this weekend. They didn’t sweep and they didn’t get swept. I believe this will string on until the very last day. However, the Mets next 12 games are all against the Nats and Braves while we play the Marlins, Brewers and Braves. We needed that game last night, big time, but fumbled it away.
- Cole Hamels was very disappointing last night. He didn’t get the best help in the world, but I was really hoping to see him beat down Santana.
- On the topic of pitcher workload. I believe that the difference between the pitchers today and the pitchers of the 50’s-60’s who were throwing 270 IP no problem is that today’s pitchers, for the most part, are maxing out their bodies more than the older pitchers were. If you’ve read Sandy Koufax’s biography, A Lefty’s Legacy, you’ll learn that they have computer programs these days that can show pitchers where they can create more body energy so that they can throw harder. They also said that when they put Sandy Koufax’s old motion through the system, he was as close to 100% as they had ever seen. Needless to say, Sandy’s arm blew up something fierce after every start and he was out of the league far earlier than he should have been. Obviously there are no radar guns to prove this, but I don’t think pitchers, except for a few, were throwing as hard (and therefore putting as much tension on their ligaments) as today’s pitchers are. In my opinion, the facts are right there. Pitchers who throw hard get hurt more often, and those who throw softer (Glavine, Maddux, Moyer, etc…) get hurt less. If a pitcher’s workload increases by 30+ IP from year-to-year, the likelihood of injury skyrockets (see my ‘Fausto Carmona will get hurt’ prediction back in March). If there was a way to pitch a guy 300 IP without risking injury, trust me, SOME ONE would figure it out.
- Staying on that topic, Billy Wagner very predictably got hurt and will not only miss the rest of this season, but also his $10.5 million 2009 season. I was disappointed when the Phils didn’t resign him, but was happy they didn’t offer him 4 years, because I didn’t think he would make it that long. The Mets got 2 good seasons from him, 7 blown saves this year, and nothing next year. Hopefully, the same can’t be said for Lidge one day.
- Updating a previous Ryan Howard stat. In his first 3 full seasons in the league, Howard has 24 more HR than anyone else (145 to A-Rod’s 121), 38 more RBI’s than anyone else (406 to A-Rod’s 368) and 65 more strikeouts than anyone (565 to Adam Dunn’s 500). If he finishes his season at the current pace, his 162 game averages for his career will be 50 HR, 139 RBI. Say what you will about his plate discipline (and I have), but that’s just incredible.
- It took longer than I thought, but it looks like Kyle Kendrick may have pitched himself out of the rotation. J.A. Happ may get his start this week, and if he pitches well, Kendrick might have to earn his job back from Happ, and Carlos Carrasco in 2009 spring training.
- Has Jayson Werth earned a full time spot? He’s 2nd on the team to Utley in OPS, has great ABs, plays good defense and runs well. In fact, if you extrapolate his numbers out to give him as many AB’s as Burrell, I would say we just keep Werth in the OF and let Burrell walk.
|
NAME |
Age |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
SO |
SB |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
|
Werth |
29 |
478 |
81 |
132 |
20 |
3 |
29 |
78 |
135 |
20 |
.277 |
.376 |
.513 |
.889 |
|
Burrell |
32 |
478 |
66 |
121 |
30 |
2 |
30 |
77 |
123 |
0 |
.253 |
.370 |
.513 |
.883 |
The only negative is more strikeouts, which we obviously don’t need, but why pay Burrell $12 million a year when you have a younger, cheaper, more athletic carbon copy of him?
- In another outfield issue, what are we going to do with Geoff Jenkins AND Matt Stairs next year? Neither will be productive, both have guaranteed contracts, and both are probably untradable.
- Playoffs or not, lots of off-season issues to talk about once the season is over. What do you guys think is THE most important task in the off-season, and how do you think we can go about doing it?
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{ 29 comments… read them below or add one }
Pete…I agree that Hamels was disappointing. He just never had it. He had been pitching very well before last night. He had only given up 8 earned runs over 42 2/3 innings in his last 6 starts. He is going to have to be able to deliver in games like last night if he wants to become the pitcher he says he wants to be. His post game comments showed that he understands this.
You know I’m with you on pitcher workloads. I felt the same way about Wagner, 4 years was too long. Long term contracts for pitchers are usually just awful for an organization. More often than not you are going to get burned. There is no way the Mets are going to get 8 years at this level out of Santana. The tough part is that if you want a guy like Santana (or Sabathia) that’s how long you have to go to get them.
I think that is really where the money comes into play. The Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and a few others have the money to take that kind of risk. If it doesn’t work out they will eat the contract and then go spend more money to bring in a replacement. I really believe that the Phillies’ reluctance to go after a bona fide ace has more to do with the length of the contract than the dollars per year. If the Phils commit to a long term deal, they are locked in. At some point when it doesn’t work any longer, they will not be able to eat the rest of the contract like the others do. Heck, we only signed Eaton for 3 years and $24 million. Based on how he’s pitched, eating his contract should be a no-brainer, but they won’t do it.
About last night’s game, I really thought the deciding factor was the first inning. We had 2 hits, 1 walk, 1 run, and runners on 1st and 2nd after our first hitters. Santana was shaky and Burrell was the key to the inning. He got two consecutive fastballs to hit on counts of 3-1 and 3-2 and he missed them both, fouling them straight back. We proceed to do no more damage and Santana settles down. In the bottom of the 1st Hamels was in trouble and the Mets tied the game. The difference was that Delgado came through and drove in 2 runs.
It really has been all about the offense for almost 3 months now. Yes we’ve gotten some bad pitching here and there but the biggest reason we have gone 36-37 over our last 73 games is because of our offensive failures. It would be nice if the offense would either cover for a starter that has a bad night or leave a cushion for the bullpen.
In this series, Rollins was 2-14, Utley was 1-11, and Burrell was 0-6. ESPN put up a stat during Burrell’s first at bat. It said he was hitting something like .105 since August 7th, which makes him the worst hitter in all of baseball over that stretch. He’s got to be under .100 now since he went 0-3 last night.
It looks like you’re right about Werth. I read something over the weekend (or did Morgan say it last night?) where Manuel said that he feels confident that Werth will improve his hitting against right handers, given more opportunities. It certainly sounds like they plan on keeping him around. He looks like he can be an every day outfielder and he would be a lot cheaper than Burrell.
Howard really is something else. Last night Morgan said what we and everyone else has said over and over. He is so strong and has such power that you wish he would just stay on the ball, put a good swing on it, and hit it where it’s pitched. The rest will follow because the ball explodes off his bat. I couldn’t believe the graphic they put up about his home runs. He has hit 111 out of his 169 career home runs from left field to center field. That is amazing.
According to today’s Daily News, Kyle Kendrick has a good shot at getting another start this week. Here’s the low down:
“Because Jamie Moyer’s start was pushed back a day due to Saturday’s rainout, the Phillies appear to have two open spots in their rotation this week. They likely would need Kendrick to pitch either tomorrow against the Marlins or Thursday against the Brewers, with lefthander J.A. Happ likely getting the other day.”
I’ll have to think about the most important task for the off season and get back to you.
How about that. After expressing frustration with the offense, they go out and do exactly what I said they were not. They covered for a bad start and they also provided a cushion for a bullpen that needed it tonight. If I knew all I had to do was ask, I would have done it sooner.
Rollins came back to life, Utley contributed, Howard stayed solid, and Werth added to his case to become an every day player (although he added 2 more strikeouts).
Blanton is really a concern now. This is several poor starts in a row. It’s got to be something about us, I guess.
Lidge has been teetering lately, but still getting the job done.
It is confirmed that Kendrick will start tomorrow and that the rotation for all 4 games against the Brewers is TBA.
Great to see the offense deliver a win. That’s one. Eighteen more to go.
Still thinking about the most important task for the off season.
Zack…I just checked in on the Phoenix Suns preview and saw your last post. There is no need to worry. Perhaps some of my posts would lead you to believe otherwise, however I assure you my sanity is secure. I do appreciate the concern, though.
That was a good win last night. Werth has been so clutch for us lately. I really believe he should be our starting right fielder. F Geoff Jenkins and F Matt Stairs. I have no idea why Matt Stairs is even on the team, but whatever. The Brewers blew a game in the 9th which was great to see. Maybe they are on the verge of a meltdown. Ben Sheets is hurtin, Manny Parra and Dave Bush are overacheiving like a mo fo and Suppan is inconsistent. CC is their only consistent starting arm.
And – we miss C.C. in our 4-game set against the Brewers. We are only 3 back of them.
T.O.… I think Manuel agrees with you about Werth. Check out this quote: “Werth’s home run was definitely the big blow of the night,” Charlie Manuel said. “When he hits the ball like that, he looks like an everyday player.” I hope that affects how he fills out the lineup card every day. The less we see of Jenkins and Stairs, the better. I don’t want to think about having them next year either, Pete.
Great to see the Brewers sliding. Hopefully it will continue so we can get even closer by Thursday. Then we can pass them by over the weekend.
I believe the key to the Phils having a dominant season next year is picking up another solid started in the rotation. We all know Hamels has the potential to do great things, but all else after that is a huge question mark. Does Myers come back in April as Myers of May ‘08 or Myers of Aug ‘08? With Moyers age, lets be real, how long can he actually keep going with these magic tricks he seems to use against opposing batters. I know he doesn’t throw very hard, but its all about control, and at his age I would think that its not getting any easier. Kendrick is on the verge of a meltdown and who knows what he’ll come back like. Blanton and Eaton completely stink and Carasco is unproven at this level. I think the starting rotation has done waaaaaaay better than anyone expected this year, but I certainly have my doubts that they can do the same again next year.
Kendrick has gotten rocked by the Marlins in his career. They are batting .309 against him lifetime. With the way he has been pitching lately I wish it was an easier matchup for him. He will really have to come up big tonight to get this win. Manuel is putting him in because he does (somewhat) deserve to earn his spot back. Are we going to stick with (unproven to the Phils) Blanton while he has been struggling and then kick Kendrick to the side after all he has done the past year. Can’t happen.
This game is sink-or-swim for Kendrick. He is opposed by Chirs Volstad who has pitched well for the Marlins so far and dominated us in the 6 inning he pitched against us. Hopefully that scouting report has been well circulated since then.
This is no time to worry about individual psyches. Whoever on staff is rested and best-suited to get the W tonight should get the ball. Kendrick deserves his pay, not necessarily a start. Since he’s been a huge 2nd half disappointment, the odds of him showing some improvement tonight, if given the ball, are good. Enough to win the game, who knows? He’s a prideful guy who’s functioned in the past when counted out.
A couple odds and ends to pass along.
First is an article by Tom Verducci posted today on SI.com titled Baseball’s closer-minded problem. You guessed it. This is another article lamenting the way closers are used. Nice to know I’m not alone on this one. This is the second article I’ve found on this subject in the last few days.
Second is an article from Foxsports.com titled Tampa doesn’t deserve the east-leading Rays. Scott Jensen from Dugout Central is suggesting that the Rays move to Philly.
Geez, I forgot. There is another article on dugoutcentral.com titled The Overlooked Excellence of Jamie Moyer. I think you can guess what it’s about.
I was holding off on saying what I think the Phillies’ most important off-season task is because I didn’t want to go with the obvious, which is pitching. However, after just listening to Kendrick give up 3 runs to the Marlins in the top of the first, pitching is the answer.
There are way too many question marks on the pitching staff. Many more than there are on the other side of the ball. There is no way we can go into next season mixing and matching with what we have.
We have Hamels, Myers (since he has 1 year remaining on his contract), and Moyer (since he has intimated that he will be coming back). That leaves 2 holes in the rotation. There is also the potential for 2 more depending on whether or not Myers remains what he is now and on Moyer’s health and age-related effectiveness and durability.
The best scenario is that we can count on both Myers and Moyer. In this case, we need to bring in a top of the rotation starter to fill one spot. This leaves Blanton, Kendrick, Eaton (as if), and Carrasco to fight it out for the last spot. If Moyer fades or Myers reverts, we will have guys in reserve that the Phils can plug in to take over. The key will be for them to have a shorter leash and actually give these other guys a chance to step in.
The other need in the pitching department is a replacement for Gordon. He has a $4.5 million club option for next year. Based on the fact that he has missed time due to injury every year he has been with us, they just can’t pick the option up. It’s time to move on and pay him the $1 million buyout.
There are issues on the other side of the ball that need to be addressed, but all of them need to wait until the pitching is straightened out.
I can’t stress this enough because Kendrick just gave up a 3-run homerun to Cantu. The Marlins now lead 7-1 in the top of the 2nd inning. Kendrick coughed up up 7 runs, 6 hits, and 2 walks on 46 pitches in 1 1/3 inings and is out of the game, thankfully. Enough said.
(P.S., Happ is now in, so he will not be starting against the Brewers on Thursday. Kendrick really put us in a bind. I think we may have no choice but to give Eaton a start.)
That game tonight was…frustrating…to say the very least. I’m sure Kendrick’s confidence should be rocket high after losing the game for us in the first inning and a half. WOW.
Watching the “comeback”, while exciting, was just as depressing because from the get go it just had one of those “this is just a tease” feelings from the beginning. Did anyone really have true confidence Werth would deliver with a man on in the 8th? I know I didn’t.
Random: Looking up individual Phillies players and looking at their month to month stats is extremely depressing. It really is incredible the entire team just collectively collapsed at the same time.
That said…Go Phillies!!!
Kendrick should never have been in there. Everyone knew it, everyone wrote it. He should have been pulled after putting the first man on in second. man, that was frustrating. if we won we’d be 2 behind the brewers, and if it stayed that way, we could take 3 of 4 from them and miraculously tie for the wild card.
though I guess Houston would pass us, since they’ve decided they aren’t going to lose the rest of the season. If they make the playoffs in Ed Wade’s first year, I might get upset.
The Philadelphia Flaillies are at it again – losing to a lesser team before 40,544 paying witnesses due to cut-rate starting pitching. The loss goes to Montgomery/Giles/Betz/Middleton/Buck brothers (quiet owners of “the Manor” since ‘81), 0 – 27 years, for their fiscal restraint in getting a tested, premiere starter in the face of championship opportunity. NY & Milwaukee went for it; Philadelphia settled. “Three cheers for Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton, hip hip hooray, … .”
There’s still hope at 2 1/2 back w/17 to play. But, as Tommy Paine said, these are the times that try fans’ souls. Smith, Dubee and Manuel do little to inspire result-confidence. (Stairs should’ve been sent on medium fly to right last night, challengingly.) Lopes, on the other hand, just as he was as a player, seems to be a helluva coach. Don’t know what to make of lifer Jimy Williams’ effect.
Werth has struck out 100 times in part-time action. Good athlete, nice arm, has had a pretty good year. Not sure he should be granted “regular” status just yet though. Ideally, a fine 4th outfielder/pinch-hitter/pinch-runner/spark.
Howard, along with recent prodigious slugging, has morphed into Bill White (former 60s Phillie Gold Glover) down at the 1st base bag, at least temporarily – amazing, what concentration
on a task can do.
JJG...I gotta agree. If you want, you can blame Kendrick for being lousy (which he was), or Manuel and Dubee for deciding to give him the start, but it really is all about the fact that there were no other options.
The pitching staff did not get the needed addition, so Manuel and Dubee have no choice but to go with what they have. Somebody has got to start and pulling a “Gene Mauch” is not the answer. You can’t blow out the 3 solid starters you have in an attempt to cover for the other 2 who aren’t getting the job done.
Regarding our other 3 starters, I am very concerned about starting Moyer on short rest tomorrow. He hasn’t done it since 2004 and the last time he did it after throwing 100 pitches in the previous start was in 2001! Myers has only done it once in his career. That was also back in 2004 and he gave up three earned runs in five innings. As for Hamels, we are all well aware of the issues that surfaced over asking him to pitch on his regular rest against the Mets. What was it, the first time all season that he made 4 consecutive starts on 4 days rest?
Don’t get me wrong, I would love to have guys be able to go on short rest when you need them. There are several problems with this approach, however. The first is that they are not trained to do it. The second is that usually they are not very effective. The third is you are opening the pitcher up to an increased risk of injury.
That’s the conundrum for Manuel and Dubee. They have to decide whether Moyer, Myers, or Hamels at 75% will give us a good enough start to justify exposing them to the very real possibility of an injury that could very well affect the rest of this season and beyond. If Manuel and Dubee do not want to expose them to that kind of risk, they have no choice but to go with someone like Kendrick.
Kendrick was obviously not their first choice, as it took them a while to finally give him the start, but they had to put somebody out there and their other options weren’t the greatest either. I think it’s the limited options that have really backed us into a corner here. At this point, Manuel and Dubee only have 3 starters they can count on, and that’s not their fault.
Howard sure has been silencing the detractors recently, has’nt he? I agree totally with Dannie that Kendrick should never have even started this game. I thought after his last start this game would be Happ’s, talk about a bad bad decision.
bski, I agree with your starting pitching overview and Mauch-iavellian concerns (with inadvisabilty for optimal performance and increased injury risk). At this point, on 4th and 5th day, I’d slice the pitching pie into bullpen slivers, try to make the most of patchwork 15 active members staff. I know guys have role comfortability but THE TIME IS NOW – no “summer soldiers or sunshine patriots” allowed!
bski-
I think there were other options. Happ was the obvious one. He wasn’t great, but he would have done better that 7 ER in 2 IP. You could also have rolled the dice and thrown Carrasco into the fire.
Morty…The Phils needed 2 starts this week (Tuesday & Thursday). Unless you wanted to see Eaton get a start, Kendrick had to get one. The biggest problem I have with last night is Charlie using Happ because he most likely would have gotten the start on Thursday. Now he’s out of the picture.
I’m really getting concerned that Manuel is panicking because his decision making with the pitchers is questionable, IMO. Happ is not a reliever, so why bring him in last night?
If you are concerned about over taxing your bullpen or wasting guys in a lost cause of a blowout, you bring in Eaton without question. Let him take one for the team and save your better arms for another day. If you wanted to try to staunch the bleeding and give your offense a chance to get you back in the game, you bring in someone like Madson or guys like Seanez or Eyre to give you a few innings. If you get back in it then you can go to Durbin, Romero and the rest. If not, then you can bring someone in to mop up.
By using Happ, Charlie really screwed us. Now he can’t give us a start on Thursday and we are forced to either go with Moyer on short rest (which is asking for trouble) or Eaton.
Pete…I guess I was answering your post before I saw it. Like I said, the Phils needed 2 starts this week. If they planned on avoiding Eaton and not using Moyer on short rest, then Happ and Kendrick were the two answers. One gets the start on Tuesday and the other on Thursday. The problem now is that Charlie used both of them on the same night leaving us in a bind for Thursday!
JJG…No doubt the time is now, but we had better fasten our seat belts if Charlie is going the route you suggest. Once you start down that road, your course is set. He may do it out of desperation, but I’m afraid that our patchwork pitching staff will come apart at the seams.
Never know, maybe Lee Walrond can thread the needle. I’d give him a shot, and tell him to throw strikes for a change. Looks like he’s got some ability (and minor success at starting). Can he be any worse than the other “K-Mart blue light specials”? Might serve well here and there.
Arthur Rhodes was really bringin’ it last night! Shades of Alvin McBean, Juan Pizzaro, Al Downing, Bob Veale and, lest we forget, Grant Jackson.
re #23/ insert to parenthetical: “league”
Arthur Rhodes: yet another in a long line of players who stink it up in Phila. and come back to town on a another team throwing darts. Sigh.
question:
why did we bring up Lou Marson if we aren’t even gonna give him an AB?
Pete...You know why. Say it with me now, “You can’t throw unproven young players into the heat of a pennant race.” You know that’s the Phillies’ thought process. It’s also why Carrasco isn’t here and why Golson only has 2 AB’s and a couple pinch running appearances.
It’s all part of running your team by “the book”. We’ve talked about it before. You can’t bring up young guys early in the season because that would be giving up too soon on a veteran and it’s unfair to play them now because of the pressure.
The Phils are maddeningly hidebound by conventional thinking.
Today’s game was very disheartening. I can’t even talk about it. We are now at a point where nothing less than a sweep of the Brewers will keep us in the mix. The thing is that right now it is a 4 team race for the wild card. St. Louis is tied with us at 4 games back, and Houston is 4.5 back. Our only hope is to sweep the Brewers and draw even with them. At the same time, hopefully the Cardinals and Astros will lose a few over the weekend and stay a couple back. I know it’s not very likely, but it’s the last semi-rational hope I can cling to at this point.
Turning point of season: June day when short, small-framed Houston GM (and tree-hanging parachutist) Ed Wade parroted old boss Dallas Green and told Shawn Chacon to “look in the f-in’ mirror” and was then taken to the floor by the 6′3″ pitcher who obviously sees no place in baseball for vanity. Phillies haven’t stopped laughing or regained composure since.