In lieu of doing an all-out preview, I’m just going to do a NLDS version of the Ramblings and let the conversation move into the comments field.
- I HATE HATE HATE how this series is set-up for us. For us to win, we have to do 1 of 2 things: Beat CC Sabathia, or win both road games. Milwaukee is 14-3 when Sabathia starts, and Milwaukee is 49-32 at home. Sound tough enough? Well, that’s assuming we win Game 1. If we don’t, we’ll have to beat Sabathia AND win 2 road games.
- Judging from the above statement, I think it’s pretty safe to say I see Game 1 as a must-win (is that possible?). I do not think that Sabathia will be affected by pitching on 3 days rest again.
- So how do we combat the tough road ahead? Cole Hamels. Hamels, in my opinion, is THE most important player in this series for us. He has been great all year, and even spectacular at times, but gave up at least 2 earned runs in each of his last 4 starts. We are in the playoffs now, and we need the Brewers to feel about Hamels the same way we feel about Sabathia. He will pitch in Game 1, and Game 5 if necessary. He needs to single-handedly win one of those games for us.
- It should be noted that Sabathia did NOT pitch well under pressure in the playoffs last year. He had an 8.94 ERA in 3 starts. It should also be noted that his two worst starts came against the Red Sox, a notoriously patient hitting team.
- Gallardo is no pushover in Game 1. In fact, I’d much rather be facing an 80% Ben Sheets. Gallardo is exactly the type of pitcher the Phillies have trouble with. They haven’t seen him much, and he has nasty stuff. Since one our weaknesses is creating runs with small ball, we tend to struggle against these guys as we swing for the fences. Hopefully he will be shaky coming off of the DL.
- Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan, on the other hand, are the type of pitchers we hit well against. RHP without overpowering stuff, who we’ve seen several times.
- Our line-up is going to need someone out of the Utley/Howard contingent to step-up at the bottom of the order. In the playoffs, teams are more likely to pitch around the big hitters and make the 6-7-8 guys drive in the runs. I’m sure Victorino is up for it; will Feliz and Ruiz be?
- On our end, can we do the same and make the Brewers beat us with the bottom of their line-up? The majority of their run production comes from Fielder and Braun and their 7-8 guys (Kendall, Counsell) aren’t good at all.
- It appears as though JA Happ will be on the playoff roster, and Rudy Seanez will not. I can’t think of a situation where I would want Seanez in there, but the move is still kind of puzzling as Happ is very young and pitched horribly as a reliever.
- Another important part of this series: keep the games close. The Brewers’ closer, Saloman Torres, has absolutely no experience under this kind of pressure and could be susceptible to blowing a save under pressure.
- After being the rock of this staff after the all-star break, does anybody have any confidence in Brett Myers in Game 2? He’s looked horrible in his last two starts and appears to have completely regressed to his old mechanical problems that got him sent down to the minors in the first place. As one of our posters pointed out, Larry Anderson was ripping him during his last start and was genuinely angry on the air about the lack of discipline Myers has. Add to this that the notoriously fired-up Myers will be starting in the loudest atmosphere of his life, and I’m not feeling too confident. Someone tell me I’m wrong!
- Is everyone leaving work early tomorrow? I didn’t have a blog last year to publicly complain that the MLB scheduled the first Phillies playoff game in 14 years at 1pm on a Wednesday, but this year I do. And we all know the MLB changes policy based on blog rantings. Anyway, it’s ridiculous to have any playoff game smack in the middle of a work day. Just play 2 at the same time, c’mon. I’m leaving early tomorrow and then probably again on Thursday because I have actual tickets to the game. Will be my first playoff game since Game 6 of the 1993 NLCS. Hopefully I get a similar result.
- A prediction? Do I have to?
- I guess I have to. As I said, I don’t like how the series is set up for us, but the Brewers remind me a lot of us last year: A team that is ecstatic to get in but exhausted once they get there. Phils take Game 1, Brewers blow out Myers in Game 2, Moyer baffles as Phils win Game 3, Brewers win a shoot-out at home in Game 4 and… Hamels pitches the game of his life, and the Phils win Game 5 3-1 on a 2-run homer by Pedro Feliz. Phils in 5.
Let’s hear it. What are your Keys to the NLDS, and what is your prediction?
As always, we encourage our new readers to join the discussion. GO PHILS!
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{ 24 comments… read them below or add one }
3 cheers for my favorite Phil/Brewer of all-time, Larry Hisle, a talented player who arrived in Philadelphia in an “unfair” Richie Allen shadow, and who recovered from a 152 KO in 482 AB rookie year to establish a strong career as good outfielding, strong RBI man in AL. Also, a nostalgic nod to solid 3rd baseman Don Money who started in opener at Veterans Stadium, 1971. This playoff series should be dedicated to aforementioned and Juan Bell, Gary Bennett, David Bell, Ricky Bottalico, Jose Cardenal, Billy Champion, Mark Davis, Dick Davis, Dick Ellsworth, Johnny Estrada, Ed Farmer, John Felske, Nelson Figueroa, Julio Franco, Terry Francona, Tito Francono, Charlie Hayes, Wes Helms, Geoff Jenkins, Deron Johnson, Doug Jones, Jeff Juden, Pete Koegel, Dave Lapointe, Randy Lerch, Sixto Lezcano, Frank Linzy, Jim Longborg, Marcelino Lopez, Abraham Nunez, Roberto Pena, Dan Plesac, Randy Ready, Ken Reynolds, Bruce Ruffin, Ted Savage, Dick Selma, Chris Short, Dickie Thon, Wayne Twitchell, John Vukovich and David West – all of whom played for both clubs.
I’m hoping that C.C. pitching for the 4th time on 3 days rest catches up to him this series. But considering that he’s 6-7 and probably close to 300 lbs, he has the physical makeup to pitch on short rest.
Myers scares me to death. On that note, I think he could be the guy that goes off and pitches like a #1 to get us a game two win. I hope the coaches have made him watch game tape comparing his last two starts to the previous starts before that. Brett’s the type of dude that the coaches need to say “Brett, this series could lay on your shoulders. You need to get your shit together and stop being such a little b*tch. Do the work and be a hero.”
As for work, I’m heading into the office early and working through lunch so I can leave at 2:30. Thank God for Blackberrys so if anything urgent pops up I can take care of it. But I’m fully expecting the city to shut down at 3:00 pm tomorrow.
Since my beloved Astros got robbed by Hurricane Ike, I’ll probably be rooting for Rays, but a certain player on the Phils still has a special spot in my heart. Mr. Brad Lidge. I’m really glad to see him return to his “Lights Out” Lidge form and hope he gets some big saves for you guys.
I just read somewhere on the internet that Brian Anderson, the brewers regular play by play, will be calling the series for TBS. Just what I want to hear Brewers home-town bias….
Also just to throw it out there, last year Gallardo’s only start, a win, vs the Phillies 6 2/3 ip, 4 h, 1er, 7k’s
I’m a little nervous I still think we get it done in 4.
I have to say that I’m pretty much in agreement with you, Pete. I do think that game 1 is a must win. We don’t want any thought of 2007 creeping into our heads. Also, the thought of being down 0-1 and facing Sabathia in game 2 is panic inducing, at least for me. I can’t really say why, but I am confident that Hamels will be up to the task tomorrow and will deliver a win for us.
There was an article in today’s Daily News in which Charlie Manuel frankly stated that the Phils hitters were not patient last year against Colorado, and it cost us dearly. I couldn’t agree more. Patience is the key to our offensive success. It was no accident that we made it to the world series back in 1993. That year, Kruk had 111 walks, Dykstra had 129, Daulton had 117, and Hollins had 85. That, my friends, is patience…and it worked.
I have talked so much about Myers this year that I just can’t do it anymore at length. Suffice it to say that I do not have any confidence in him, but that it would not surprise me if he threw a gem. Got that? Good, me neither. That’s about all I can make out of him at this point. If anything, I’m hoping that pitching at home will make a difference for him.
Dan, I really don’t expect all of this pitching on short rest to catch up with Sabathia for the rest of this season, however long it lasts for the Brewers. At this point I’m figuring on it seriously affecting him next year, a la Mark Prior.
In the Cubs “magical” (at the time) 2003 season, Prior threw 211 1/3 innings during the regular season. In the playoffs he threw 23 1/3 innings, which brings his 2003 total to 234 2/3 innings. This was a little more than double the innings he threw in 2002 (116 2/3). He has never been close to the same pitcher since.
Sabathia’s increased workload is not in the same neighborhood as Prior’s, but it is a significantly increased workload nonetheless. As such, I find it highly unlikely that he will escape without paying a price for it. Maybe not to the extent that Prior has but, unless he is just a total freak of nature, something untoward. I expect Sabathia to continue on through this postseason, just like Prior, and then break down next year, again, just like Prior.
Anyway, Sabathia scares the bejeebers out of me. There is no way I want to face him twice! This brings me to my next point. If the series plays out the way Pete expects, I want Hamels on the mound in game 4. I know he will be pitching on 3 days rest, but I strongly believe that, if we are up 2-1 and are getting Sabathia in game 5, we need to end the series in game 4. In my mind, Hamels at 75% is better than whoever the Brewers would throw at us. Plus, I would rather have him on the mound again and avoid Blanton. (even though he has pitched better in his last 2 starts, this is the playoffs and I am not into taking chances.)
For me, the overriding philosophy in the playoffs is to go out and win each game without concerning yourself about the next one, because (ready for the cliche?) you never know what will happen tomorrow. I think you simply must give yourself the best opportunity to win every game. I’m not being ridiculous and saying that if we are up 2-0 we should pitch Hamels on 2 days rest in game 3 in an attempt to close out the series or that we should use Romero in the 8th and Lidge in the 9th of a game we are losing 8-1. What I am saying is that if we are faced with this situation (up 2-1 with a chance to close it out in game 4 and avoid Sabathia in game 5), we need to go for the kill at that point.
I am glad that Moyer is pitching game 3 on the road. I think we can rely on him to give us a good start which, should Myers falter or Sabathia just shut us down, would go a long way toward getting us up 2-1.
I will be listening to the game on the radio, as I will be working 9-7 tomorrow. What are you going to do? Maybe we need to have one Phillies player or another win the MVP for something like 5 or 6 years in a row before any network will make us the prime time game, I don’t know.
Zack…Where are you man? I saw your post under the Eagles topic. Just reading and not posting on the baseball ones or what?
Geez, I wanted to give the link to that Charlie Manuel article I mentioned. OK, I’m really finished now….until tomorrow.
I don’t follow baseball religiously, but I watched that game last year when the Phils faced Gallardo. No one could touch the guy from my memory. I made a mental note to reach for him in any fantasy leagueI joined.(ended up being 0) The guy can hit the baseball too. A true blue athlete with some really good speed. I seem to remember him going from first to thing on a ball hit to right field last year or tagging up from third to home on balls that pitchers never would.
His performance was one where I kinda just went… “Who is this guy?” about 7 times during the game. The only other guy that really happened with last year was Lincecum. You kinda just stop flipping through the channels when you see guys like this pitching.
He has let up 3 or less earned runs in 17 or 21 career starts. I really don’t like that the Phils have to deal with this guy.
Just my thoughts. I am a Negadelphian though so I normally look for neagtive things going into the playoffs. If I had to predict a winner I would go with the Phils, but I want to see what Gallardo does.
Yahoo odds seem to indicate that the Phils are solidly favored tonight, so that puts me to ease a bit, but not too much.
I suck at typing. first to third I meant.
Joe-
Agreed, Gallardo can be nasty. BUT, the one thing we will have going for us is that I don’t think he’s going to be in there for 100 pitches or anything, probably only 60-80 and then they’ll bring in a reliever.
The key to today’s game will be Hamels keeping the ball DOWN in the zone.
who do you guys play if Burrell is out? Stairs, Jenkins or Bruntlett?
“We’re gonna be like (three) little Fonzies here. And what’s Fonzie like?” (Samuel L. Jackson Pulp Fiction)
It comes down to being mentally sharp and keeping it COOL !!
Jenkins over Stairs. Can always use more pop in line-up in big game, but not “Pop-Pop”, who - due to age/weight and a long-established natural disability - doesn’t cover the earth like Jenkins (no hummingbird himself), let alone Sherwin Williams. Save Stairs for right moment to ’swat or swoosh’. Bruntlett should remain as utility for ‘Pops’ Manuel’s countrified cunning and deployment, if necessary.
a note to all-
I will likely be “live-blogging” game 1 since it is likely I will be watching it by myself. so feel free to check in and comment on the game as it’s going on.
LET’S GO PHILS!!!!!
Not so long ago the now troubled Brett Myers threw a Sunday night gem against the Brewers in Game 4 of that crucial sweep we had waaaay back in September. I know he has looked ’shaky’ since then, but lets all hope that he can get that form back and battle with CC in an all out pitchers duel, Phils 3, Brewers 2 in Game 2.
I’ll throw this out there, Werth and Dobbs and your corner outfielders. With Werth as a righty and Dobbs a lefty, you don’t have to worry about too many of each bat in your lineup. I think Dobbs has shown that he can hit and what a better time to let the man shine than right now. Jenkins stinks, Bruntlett needs experience, and Stairs is old and a power bat off the bench.
Our boys are hungry and want to bring the parade home to Philly, Phils in 4.
I think Jenkins is a good bet today as he’ll be pumped to perform against old mates; that extra motivation sometimes does the trick. The more you play Dobbs, the less he appears as Wade Boggs. And he’s not “Twinkletoes” McGillacudhy in the outfield.
Just don’t want to see any ‘golden sombreros’ being handed out tonight. And with Burrell out, Jenkins is the next in line for possible candidates with Howard hitting the ball the way he is.
You’re right about ’sombrero’ odds. I’d play Jenkins on a hunch though. Uncle Cholly plays hunches too. Will be interesting to see his in 3 hrs. None of LF replacement candidates yield high confidence.
aargh, 3pm game time? I get to watch none of this game.
jjg: your Jenkins scenario has me thinking Jeff Weaver in the 2006 WS. Go Phils!
raro, Cards’ Weaver – good mention. 8-14, 5.76 regular season; 2.77, 14 K, 2 BB World Series vs. Tiger “buddies”.
Stairs should start. Much more of an offensive threat than Jenkins. Love his stick. Also, handles right field ok with werth in left. Jenkins just has not impressed this year. Maybe against his former team. I don’t know but love Stairs bat.
sfw, Agree, Jenkins has been a disappointment. Then again, most Phils hitters have experienced swooning this year. Except for Utley/Burrell/Howard separate carrying streaks, team on a whole has disappointed at plate, especially after being pronounced “the greatest ever” line-up in mid-June. Geoff might be able to muster a key double or jack if given a chance. On the other hand, Stairs LOOKS to be dangerous in the box. Has whiffed on a lot of high pitches though. Maybe his post-Marson HR will give him plate momentum. I prefer him as a late-inning PH threat.
looks like Burrell is going to start.
“Best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.”