CNNSI.com is reporting that the Phillies and Blue Jays are discussing an A.J. Burnett deal…
NEW YORK — Desperately looking to upgrade their rotation, the Phillies are talking to the Blue Jays about right-handed pitcher A.J. Burnett.
It isn’t known how far talks have progressed, but top Blue Jays executive Tony LaCava was spotted this week watching the Phillies’ Double-A Reading team, an indication things are heating up.
The Toronto Globe and Mailreported that the Dodgers also were pursuing Burnett. However, it appears that talks with the Phillies may be more serious. Philadelphia is also reportedly eyeing Mariners left-hander Erik Bedard.
Burnett, 9-8 with a 5.23 ERA, has a complicated contract whereby he can opt out at year’s end, which is the most likely scenario. However, should he falter badly or become injured, he can continue with a contract that is to pay him $24 million over the next two years, an option that could deter some teams from taking him. He also has a limited no-trade provision in his $55 million contract.
Burnett has said he would welcome a trade with “open arms” to the Cubs, but their acquisition of Rich Harden from the A’s seems to eliminate them as a potential suitor.
The Phillies have at least three good prospects at Reading — catcher Lou Marson (.323), center fielder Greg Golson (.299) and pitcher Carlos Carrasco (5-7, 4.18).
The Phillies made a push for C.C. Sabathia but couldn’t match the Brewers’ stacked farm system and four-prospect offer, highlighted by top hitting prospect Matt LaPorta. Philadelphia’s lead the NL East has been cut to 1½ games, thanks to a six-game winning streak by the New York Mets.
Phillies starters are only 31-31 with a 4.40 ERA, which is 10th best in the National League.
Burnett is an interesting case. He has been awful this year, with a 1.51 WHIP. But, he is still striking out a batter an inning, which infers that his stuff is there. Hopefully, if the deal went down Burnett would benefit from a change of scenery and return to his sub-4.00 ERA form of the previous 4 years. His quote about welcoming a deal with “open arms” infer that a change of scenery might get him serious again.
Considering his performance, request to leave and contract, the Blue Jays can’t have that much leverage. We could probably give them Bastardo and a couple lower-level guys to get the deal done.
It would be low risk in terms of giving up prospects, but high risk in terms of Burnett’s performance. You’d have to think he’d be better than he’s been in Toronto, but would he be the arm we need?
What do you think about an A.J. Burnett deal?
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{ 29 comments… read them below or add one }
I don’t see Burnett as the answer. I think it’s a pretty decent leap to think he can regain his old form. Even if he does, I think his old form gives us a #3 starter, at best. I wouldn’t say he was ever fantastic, and by all appearances he’s on the downward slide. For his entire career, he’s only thrown more than 200 innings twice, and just barely at that.(204.1 in 2002 and 209 in 2005) Also, he’s only made more than 30 starts in a season once(in 2005). Taking all of that into account, he’s certainly not an innings eater or anything resembling a workhorse. Plus, we are looking at the possibility of having him for 2 more years at $24 million? That’s way too much risk for a small chance at a reward that would most likely not be enough to get us anywhere.
Pete: First of all, Burnett is not the answer!!!
Take these factors into consideration when evaluating any potential Burnett deal:
(1) The Blue Jays have been telling teams they project Burnett to be a Type A free agent, so they’d expect the equivalent of two high-end compensation picks in return–Bastardo would not fit that criteria. The Phils would have to give up more.
(2) Burnett would be a “rent-a-pitcher”–he’s widely expected to opt out of the last two years of his deal, regardless of where he ends up.
A rent-a-pitcher would not be adequete enough for me. This rotation is in such a disarray to go out and get a rent-a-pitcher only then to be in this same position when camp breaks in March is a problem. At this point, with what is available, Bedard is the answer–lefty, much better WHIP and ERA then Burnett and has what two, three yrs left on his deal.
cant see bedard,three leftys in the starting rotation?….dont think so.
one word to describe my feelings about us getting Burnett:
uneasy
as long as we don’t give up Carrasco, I’m fine with a deal. As far as i’m concerned, Golson and Bourn are cut from the same irrelevant material. Plus, I think OFs are easier to replace or obtain via FA.
I think our best bet, of the reportedly available options, would actually be Zach Grienke, followed by Eric Bedard, and Burnett would be a distant third. Grienke just had another fantastic outing result in a no decision.
I know nobody really wants to hear this, but our best bet may be to pick up a solid reliever, maybe two. At this point, it is doubtful we will get an impact starter from anywhere. Even if we get a B-list guy, he’ll only get 10 or 12 starts. Unless the guy pitches lights out and goes 8-2 or something, he probably won’t be much of an improvement over what we’re getting now.
If whatever starter we got replaced Eaton, there’s a good chance he’d make more of an impact, but I don’t think he’d be replacing Eaton. Most likely, any starter we get would take Myers’ spot and be replacing Happ. Then if Myers turns himself around, he may be the one to replace Eaton. I hope I’m wrong. If we get another starter, I would like to see him replace Eaton, and have us keep Happ in Myers’ spot.
In any case, a reliever or two(depending on whether or not the Phils think Swindle can get the job done) really might make more sense. Gordon will be a question mark for the rest of the season, and I’m now worried about Romero’s groin. Romero injured himself back around June 6th and it continues to nag him. There is no telling when or even if it will heal entirely and how much it will affect his availability and effectiveness.
A reliever will be involved in and have an impact on many more games than any starter ever could, especially considering that, other than Hamels, none of our starters go deep into games on a regular basis. Also a reliever would be less costly and less risky than almost any starter left out there we may be able to acquire.
I know adding a reliever doesn’t solve our postseason problem of needing a solid #2 starter behind Hamels, but I don’t think that any of the starters currently available are the answer to that, either.
@bski
I honestly don’t see a huge need in the bullpen. The two areas of concern out there are Condrey and Swindle, who won’t see much action in close games. I think Swindle can be great as a left specialist. He should NEVER face righties. Also, I think Happ will be right back with the team after the all-star break. He had two solid outings and after the success we had last year with Kendrick, I think they might see if they can get lucky again.
DUKE: I hope you’re right that Happ stays in the rotation. I think he can do as much, if not more, for us than Burnett or some of the other starters we might be able to get. On top of that, he’s ridiculously less costly in both salary and the fact that we don’t lose any prospects. At this point, I would prefer to see Happ stay in Myers’ spot and have Myers replace Eaton whenever that might be.
I hope you’re right about the bullpen, too. I am not as confident. You yourself just said that your areas of concern are Swindle and Condrey. What about Seanez? He’s battling back spasms or something, so I don’t know how much we can expect from him the rest of the way. You are right that Swindle and Condrey won’t see much action in tight games, especially late. I think you can include Seanez with them, so now you have really limited yourself as far as who you do use in those situations.
By that math, we are relying on only 4 guys(Durbin, Madson, Lidge, Romero) to get the job done for us. As the closer, Lidge is obviously limited to end of game situations. Without Gordon, Romero has to be held back as well. Lidge can’t pitch every day and, based on what we saw yesterday, Madson can’t be trusted as a fill in closer, so Romero needs to be there to back up Lidge. Romero also must be held back because, if you aren’t going to use Swindle to get a leftie out in a tight spot, then Romero is your only choice. So now we’re limited to using either Durbin or Madson in the 6th or 7th inning of tight games.
I feel we are spread pretty thin in the pen and I don’t know how long we can hold out. We’re asking a lot of these guys. They are doing a fantastic job, but they can niether pitch every day, nor will they be lights out every time. I know that Gordon went on the DL last year and he pitched well the rest of the way, but I don’t know that it will happen again this year. I mean, the Phils have been more careful with him this year, yet he still broke down again.
I would feel much better if we got a solid back end of the bullpen arm that could help in the 7th, 8th, 9th innings (possibly helping out in save situations when necessary). He could lighten the load on Gordon in an effort to keep him healthier and also be there as an insurance policy in case Gordon goes down again.
There’s a lot of teams out there that would be thrilled to have four good options out of the pen. I wouldn’t mind using Swindle to get lefties out, just wouldn’t let him ever face a rightie. I’ve never been a Condrey fan, but he seemed to have a lot more movement on his pitches the other night than I can remember. If he keeps that kind of stuff going, maybe he can contribute.
I guess what it comes down to is, who do you think is available to acquire? Too many teams interested in Fuentes and I certainly wouldn’t want to give up a haul for him. I like Mahay, but again, lot’s of teams looking into him. If you’re not going to get a Heath Bell, Linebrink, or Taylor Bucholz (man would I like to have that guy back), I’m not sure there’s too many better options than what we’ve already got.
I’ll tell you who I would give up half our farm team for…Brandon Morrow. He had his first poor outing last night, but this kid’s a stud. Not only would he round out the pen for this year, we could plug him in as a starter next year. Don’t think Seattle would even consider dealing him.
I just read Bob Ford’s article in today’s Inquirer titled “Phillies Can Learn Lesson From Sixers and Eagles”. Here’s the link
Here’s an excerpt: “A larger question might be whether the farm system is being properly funded and administered. If there isn’t a decent crop of prospects, why not? It could be faulty scouting or bad luck – projecting major-league success is an elusive art – or lousy instruction or some combination of those. But the big-league team is being let down by the minor-league system at the moment.”
I have been asking this very question for quite a while, both here and elsewhere. Why don’t we have a surfeit of prospects? Does anyone notice this? Who is held responsible? When, if ever, will this change? All of these questions have been gnawing at me. It has got to start where everything else does in the organization, and that’s at the top with the ownership group.
We are always hamstrung by the dearth of prospects in the minors. It hurts us in many ways. We don’t have enough guys coming up to the big club to help ourselves enough. Also, we never have enough prospects so we can spare a few in trades without wiping out our farm system. Along with that, when you only have one guy here and there, it makes it that much harder to match up with the needs of the other clubs you are trying to deal with.
Back around the time of the draft, there was an article explaining that the Phils almost never pay above slot for draft picks, which limits who they can sign. Also, they are well below what others spend to sign the top, young Latin American players. In that area, it’s all about the money. If they know you’re not making big offers, you can’t even get to the table with them. By all appearances, it is this financial inflexibility that is severely limiting the number of quality prospects we can acquire.
When we think of the Phils as cheap, we rarely think all the way down to the signing of teenagers, but it seems as though this is where it all starts. The Phils put their entire organization at a disadvantage from day one. It seems like they may very well be penny wise but pound foolish.
We actually have more talent in our farm system than a lot of organizations. I certainly won’t argue that this franchise is “cheap,” though they’ve turned it around a bit. One of the easiest answers for why our farm system isn’t all that deep is that we’ve been a team in or on the verge of the playoffs for several years now. Therefore, we haven’t been selling off talent at the deadline to reload the youth. The last time we were in that situation, we dealt Abreau…and didn’t get much in return for him.
No thanks on Burnett. If we can swing a deal for Oswalt, then we can talk. Otherwise it seems best to just still with the team as is. Keep giving Happ some chances, bring Myers back to replace Eaton. Then you can give it a couple of weeks and see if Benson gets it together or bring up Carrasco for a spot start and see how he takes it.
I dont think our farm system is as bad as people are making it out to be. Happ has already been up and is not too bad, maybe a #3 or 4 before too long. Then you got Carrasco who is going to be up soon, that probably projects to a #2. So that gives you from our farm system a #1 Cole Hamels, #2 Carrasco, #3 Kendrick, #4 Happ. That doesn’t seem like a bad farm system to me. And that gives you the flexibility to move Myers if the right deal comes through, or move him to the pen next year and let him be the set-up give for Lidge. Now that would be “Lights Out”.
And on top of that, Lou Marson will be up soon. I really believe he is the catcher of our future. Hopefully that will be next year. Then we can have Coste or Ruiz as the backup and trade the other away.
“It would be low risk in terms of giving up prospects, but high risk in terms of Burnett’s performance.”
Well, when you put it like that, I’m sure this is practically a done deal. Sounds like a Phillies special all the way.
Let’s take it easy with JA Happ…reading this blog you would think he is the ANSWER. Carlos Carrasco, as well. He is not major league ready and most scouts outside the organization don’t think he is anything more than a 4 or 5 in any rotation. He was recently not even ranked in the top 100 of MLB farm system prospects, according to Sporting News. Not to mention, he has not been sharp at all with an ERA close to 5. And I am not saying Burnett is the answer, but it is clear they need somehow, someway a TOP of the ROTATION starter–JA Happ and/or Carlos Carrasco will not cut it. Let’s just temper the enthusiasm a bit.
Yes sir!
I don’t get the sense people are saying JA Happ is the second coming of Hamels, or Matt Garza for that matter. But he’s shown to be a gamer and willing to take a MLB start and go with it (which is so much more than we could say of someone like Gavin Floyd back in his pinstripe days). My sense of people’s points on Happ is that we probably can’t get a starter via trade who would be demonstrably better than Happ THIS YEAR. I think that’s a valid point.
Carrasco though, I’ll take the word of BA and other media outlets that he is in fact our #1 prospect. That and he’s a 21 year old minor league pitcher who has a dynamic arm. At this point, I’ll take his potential, even if it’s just as a number 3, because I do feel like our minor league system HAS let us down. Sure, we can say Hamels, Utley, Howard, Rollins, but I’m thinking more about the midseason callups that can truly energize a team and make a difference (at age 22 or 23 or 24, not 26 or 27). Where’s our Volquez? Lincecum? Garza? Bruce? etc etc. Instead, I see guys like Golson and Jaramillo, bleah.
This, btw, is one of the reasons I HATED the Gio Gonzalez for Garcia trade right when it happened. I couldn’t believe we let that lefty go so quickly. This is why I’m so bullish on Carrasco, I guess. I want that possibility. Now, if Oswalt becomes available….. well, let’s talk then. But I doubt there’s any way Ed Wade trades Oswalt and wakes up without a horse head in his bed.
Anyway, go Phillies.
I know we’ve been talking pitchers here, but anybody else think we could use a couple position players? One, for example, I’d love to get is Bengie Molina. You’d have to think the Giants would be willing to deal him and I doubt the price would be too high. He’d be a huge upgrade from Ruiz. In addition to that, I’d love to get anybody to replace So Taguchi. Am I the only one that cringes whenever he’s inserted…for whatever reason it may be? Only defensive replacement I’ve ever seen that loses the ball every time it’s hit in the air.
Wanted to throw out a couple other starting pitchers I think might be attainable that I haven’t heard mentioned. (As I’m writing this Adam Eaton has just been pulled after being shelled once again). The two guys I came up with are Jeremy Guthrie of Baltimore and Chris Young of San Diego.
Young is currently on a rehab assignment and should be ready in about three weeks. He’s got good stuff, but I’m always a little leary of trading for pitchers who thrive in pitcher’s parks and San Diego is the best pitcher’s park in the bigs. Still, I’d prefer him to Burnett.
Guthrie really intrigues me. He’s putting together his second solid season in a row. He’s got a 3.49 ERA this year and just a 1.19 WHIP. He throws in Baltimore, which is comparable to Philly’s park and actually ranked #3 for hitters parks in 2007, while Philly was #5.
Curious to find out what others think about these two as possibilities for the Phils and what you think it might take to get them.
Baltimore is not going to move Guthrie, he is one of the cores to the rebuilding they are going through. They have him pegged as their “ace”. More likely that they move Daniel Cabrera.
@Kevin
I think if we were willing to deal Carrasco we could pry Guthrie away from the O’s. Guthrie’s already 29, so I don’t really know how he fits in as a core of a rebuilding process, though I definately agree he’s their ace.
Maybe the reason why the Phillies can swing a deal lies in the fact that thier most pro-ready prospects just aren’t as good as many (uninformed) Phillies fans think. Here’s insight into the Phillies “top” pro prospects at Futures Game 2008:
A handful of players didn’t live up to advance billing. Lou Marson was fine behind the plate, but didn’t square balls up and repeatedly hit balls on the ground, even in BP. … Regular-season teammate Greg Golson showed again that his approach at the plate is atrocious, with a very long swing and poor pitch recognition, and he had two very bad reads in left field during the game. Carlos Carrasco was 90-94, throwing slightly across his body with poor command, and he didn’t throw a breaking ball in his inning of work.
Though, Jason Donald, a recent target of the Blue Jays, did get good reviews as a “hit for average” type hitter.
meant to say can’t swing a deal, not can…
jrpIII:
isn’t it just as “uninformed” to make sweeping judgements on baseball players based on one game and one BP? The difference between a .275 hitter and a .300 hitter is 1 hit every 2 weeks. Not exactly something you can see in one game.
It’s true that our top prospects are not the same caliber as some others. But Marson is a 22 year old catcher, playing higher than he should (double-A) for that age, and has a .450 OBP, which is RIDICULOUS. He has little power, but will be a significant upgrade over our current catchers.
Golson has made strides this year for sure, but does still struggle with a lot of his game.
Carrasco did pretty well for having poor command, striking out 2 in a hitless inning. His issue is confidence. He’s not the caliber prospect of Hamels or Clay Bucholz, or Clayton Kershaw etc…, but he is a solid #2 type starter.
Donald is what he is. He’ll be a slightly above average SS in the league. Not sure he’s one of our “top” prospects. I think our top guys are Marson, Carrasco, Adrian Cardenas and Joe Savery (despite his early struggles).
and just to show there are many opinions on these things…..here is what baseball prospectus said about Carrasco
“Carlos Carrasco. The best starting-pitcher prospect I saw, Carrasco threw fastballs at 90-93 and changeups about 10 mph slower, eschewing any breaking balls. He’s been rumored to be trade bait for the Phillies, who need starting pitching help. I’m not sure that Carrasco is much worse than the kinds of pitchers you can get back for him.”
Apparently, the Phillies are now interested in Freddy Garcia once again. This is the first time I’ve seen them mentioned among the suitors. In all honesty, we traded two nice prospects for him while he was unhealthy…why not take a shot on him once he’s completely rehabbed?
Duke, nice piece of reporting…
FOR: We DID trade two prospects for him, as you said; he’s got good stuff, good career numbers; J-Roll might get all jacked up again about picking him up, leading to better production from our shortstop; pitchers have recovered from injuries before and done well
AGAINST: a vast majority of Phillie fans HATE this guy, we’d want a move the fans will get behind, not one they’ll start trashing the first time he walks someone; if you have a bad experience one place, you usually don’t wanna go back there, I bet he’d be looking for a fresh start somewhere else; isn’t he a power pitcher, would he still be effective at his age and does his injury make him less effective as a result
@ Pete
I think you need to read my post again…there was an implication made as to why the phillies may be able to swing a deal due to the fact that these particular prospects may not be as good, or as desireable as we would like to think here in Philadelphia. What I posted was a SAMPLE and never suggested that that sample was the whole truth concerning any particular prospect.
My opinion on Carrasco is that he doesn’t have a dominate enough fastball to allow him to have such below average breaking pitches. You can’t blow people away, let alone be effective with a 92 MPH fastball, and no breaking pitch to speak of. Yes, he is young, and developing but his continued lack of control is a concern– again, much of this due to the fact that he still throws across his body. His numbers at Double-A are confusing–one K, one hit, and one walk every inning pitched with and ERA close to 5–I just question that he truly is the prospect that people in this city thinks he is.
jrpIII:
a couple points on carrasco.
- do you consider a change-up a breaking pitch? (not trying to be snide, some people only count curves and sliders) His change-up is arguably his best pitch. He needs to develop a third pitch, but his change-up is above average.
- his ERA is 4.09, not exactly close to 5.
- he does walk too many, but not 1 per inning. He walks 0.39 per inning.
- If people think he is a Cole Hamels-level prospect, then they are wrong. But he is as good a prospect as Myers, Floyd, Wolf, etc…
- He’s only 21, so he’s pitching a above his age at double-A.
To join in on your Carrasco conversation…
1) Put me in the group that does not consider a changeup a breaking ball. Some people consider everything but a fastball a breaking ball, but there’s already a term for that…offspeed pitch.
2) I think a lot of Philly fan’s have some unrealistic expectations for Carrasco at this point. It’s understandable though, we’ve got a shallow farm system and a huge need for starting pitching. He’s the first place fans are going to look, despite the fact that he just turned 21 in March. I don’t think he’s ready this year, but give him another year or two and he will be a solid big leaguer. As a side note, it’s not that there hasn’t been interest in Carrasco. The Phils were unwilling to include him in trade talks up until recently.