I don’t remember where I heard it, but some talking head was talking about Tampa Bay’s achievement this year and how much harder it is to make the playoffs than to actually win the World Series.  Do you agree?  A lot of the recent WS winners weren’t considered the best teams in their year’s playoff field.  If there was a perfect correlation between talent and championships, then Tampa Bay should’ve won this year (oh no he didn’t, he did not just say that); we should’ve beaten Colorado last year; the Angels should have won more than one WS, and you could make the case that their championsip team wasn’t as talented as some of their most recent playoff teams.

But what talent does get you is the CHANCE to to win the championship.  My argument in that old conversation is that you don’t need to be a big-spending organization to win a championship.  But it helps a lot in that in getting you into the playoffs, where, seemingly, once you’re in you’ve got as good a shot as anyone.

So, let’s break down the talking point “buying championships” into “buying regular season success” and “buying playoff success”.  I think that, more often than not, if you spend money on free agents and shell out to keep your players, you will make the playoffs, assuming a minimum level of organizational competencey.  But that’s as far as the money will take you.  I think that in the playoffs, how much you spent on free agent X in the offseason becomes a smaller factor in you surviving series after series.

What do you need for playoff success?  An ace and a closer, that’s for sure, but beyond that I don’t know.  So I guess if you did shell out big free agent money, it should be for one of those guys.  But then again, you have to get the right ace and the right closer.  Hamels or Sabathia?  Lidge or K-Rod?

I could write more, but I need to get to some things.  Give me something to respond to, some indication of where you’d like to take this, if you’re interested.  But knowing you, you’ll probably give me a lot to digest, so give me some time to respond!

“Lowe entered free agency after the 2004 season on the heels of his worst year as a starter. He had capped it off with some great work in October that made the four-year deal given to him by the Dodgers and then-GM Paul DePodesta seem irrationally exuberant. But since the deal, Lowe has posted four straight seasons with ERAs under 3.90 and at least 199 innings pitched. The big difference between now and then, other than the move to an easier league and park, is Lowe’s control: Typically stingy with the long ball, Lowe also has become a miser with the free pass, issuing a career-low (as a starter) 38 unintentional walks in 211 innings this season. Lowe works primarily off a sinker with average velocity but hard late sink; only Brandon Webb was better at generating ground balls and preventing line drives this season. He pairs it with a short-breaking slider to keep hitters honest and miss the occasional bat. At 36, Lowe probably is headed for a decline, but he has shown no sign of it to date and probably has a good two — or even three — seasons left at something close to his level of 2006-2008.”

How Lowe is ranked below Burnett, I can’t understand.  Be that as it may, Lowe is definitely worth making a run at.  He is looking for 5 years at $15 million per.  5 years is much too long of a commitment to make to him.  Maybe we’ll get lucky and nobody else will offer him a 5 year deal.  I’d love to see us get him here with a 3 year deal.

“ MLB.com’s Scott Merkin notes that the Mets and Phillies are two of the six teams on Dye’s no-trade list.”

Looks like we can cross Dye off our list of potential replacements for Burrell.

I’m with you, Pete.  I think the longer this goes, the more likely it is that Burrell stays with us.

We can’t forget about Feliz.  He had successful back surgery on Nov. 20th and his recovery is still pegged at 8-12 weeks.  Gotta be concerned though about how this will affect him throughout next season.  We’ve already seen close up what a 3rd baseman with lingering back issues plays like (anybody miss David Bell?) and I really don’t want to see us have to deal with that again.

What is the latest on Manny?  We discussed that he may be on the Phils radar based on Uncle Chahlie’s history with the guy, but nothing has surfaced.  Is Manny hot in talks with any other teams at this point?  I will again state that I DO NOT want Manny Ramirez in a Phillies uniform, ever. 

Keith Law from espn.com has Burnett at #4 on his list of the top 50 free agents.  Here’s what Law has to say about Burnett:

“Burnett might have the best raw stuff of any starter in baseball. When he’s good, he’s unhittable. The problem is that when he’s not good, or not motivated, he’s ordinary and prone to the big inning. Burnett will show three above-average pitches on his best days: a 92-98 mph fastball, all with good life, some with sink; a plus-plus downward-breaking curveball that is unusually hard; and an above-average changeup, his worst pitch but one he sells well enough to fool many left-handed hitters. His command and control are average at best; he gets by on pure stuff as much as on feel or his pitching plan. The bigger concern with Burnett is what version of Burnett you’re actually getting. He threw a career-high 221 1/3 innings and started a career-high 34 games this season. The only two times he topped 200 innings before 2008 resulted in follow-up seasons that were abbreviated because of arm trouble. Two of his three 200-inning seasons came in walk years. He performs better when the pressure is off, going on tears in the second halves of the past two seasons when the Jays were largely irrelevant. He’s an upside play, a rarity in this end of the pitching market because he can beat any team at any time with his stuff, and if he does it a few more times a year, he’ll get Cy Young votes. He is one of only two players in the top 10 of these rankings — the other being Oliver Perez — who could end up a bargain for the signing team. But a repeat of what he provided for Toronto would make him a disappointment.”  (emphasis mine)

I don’t see how you can feel that way about a player and still have him at #4 on your list, but whatever.  I do not want to see the Phils overextend themselves to get Burnett because I really think it will come back to bite them.