With the GM meetings coming to a close, we are officially in the MLB off-season. This is one of my favorite times in the sports year. You’ve got the NFL, College Football and NBA in full swing, with College Basketball coming up and the MLB rumor mill getting all churned up.
It appears as though the first order of business for Phillies GM Ruben Amaro is to re-sign 2 of our free agents, Jamie Moyer and Scott Eyre. It’s hard to imagine either of these deals not getting done. Both of these guys want to return, and they aren’t going to get some huge offer from another club that is going to blow them away.
Personally, I’m torn on Jamie Moyer’s return. I love the guy, and I don’t think his arm is going to break down or anything, but I do think that his ERA next year will be closer to the 5.01 he sported in 2007 than the 3.71 he had last year. It’s just too much to ask from a 46-year-old to keep up that kind of production. His ERA hasn’t been that low since 2003, and he hasn’t changed anything as a pitcher in that time, inferring that some luck and circumstance came into play this year. But, if we aren’t going to go after someone like Derek Lowe, then he’s probably as sound an investment as we can make. Hopefully, it’s a one-year deal.
Moyer’s signing would pretty much set our rotation at Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer and Happ. Re-signing Scott Eyre would give us 2 solid lefties in our bullpen and leave only 1 or 2 spots open in our entire pitching staff. Hopefully we can get Eyre for a modest 2-year deal at maybe $3 million a year. He was good, but certainly nowhere near J.C. Romero’s impact that got him 3 years, $18 million.
Assuming we get these 2 deals done, it seems like the focus will shift to trying to get some of our own players signed to long-term deals, including Howard, Victorino and Madson.
Amaro said that at the meetings he spoke to 27 different teams about trades to improve the team and while nothing is imminent by any means, he called many of the conversations “interesting.” It will be interesting from our end whether he stays the course that Gillick took, making only small moves, or tries to make a name for himself by making a big splash. We’ll have to wait and see.
{ 20 comments… read them below or add one }
I agree, I would only resign Moyer if he would agree to a one year deal. I love the guy and his old school ways, and appreciate what he has brought to this team. I just dont view him as a important piece to the staff next year. I think we will see Carrasco with the team next year, maybe a soon as spring training. And if Kendrick can right himself, it could get interesting for that last spot.
Kevin-
One thing you will hear from me all offseason is that I strongly believe we need to start Carrasco in the minor leagues. He’s still young, and only pitched a couple games in AAA last year. We need to avoid making the same mistake we did with Gavin Floyd and bring him up too early and expect too much from him. He hardly dominated AA ball last year, and needs to show more consistency before we bring him up. This is also why it was so great to see Carlos Ruiz play well in the playoffs because we can leave Lou Marson down for another year as well.
If Kendrick can develop a good change-up to throw to RH, he can be a MLB starter, if not, he wont.
Moyer and Eyre. The fact that those geezers are Amaro’s first order of GM contract business instructs all parents to portside their boys when buying first glove.
10% of adults are left-handed, but about 33% of MLB players are left-handed.
If you are born left-handed or ambidextrous (sp?), you are over 4 times more likely to play major league baseball.
Good stats, Pete. Did you type that facing east or west re mound of CBP?
I would love to see Moyer come back, albeit with a few caveats.
First, I agree that it must be a one-year deal. Can’t go beyond one year at a time with him, regardless of what he did this past season.
Second, I think it might not be a bad idea to make Moyer the 5th starter. That way we would only be counting on him for around 28 starts. I know he keeps himself in great shape and made 33 starts without missing one, but I’d feel more comfortable if we reduced his workload. I think we can get more out of him by asking a bit less. Plus, I think he would have the least difficulty in dealing with being skipped in the rotation and having several extra days off between starts.
Third, like Pete said, it will allow Carrasco more time in the minors to mature. I agree that having him start the season in AAA is the best thing.
Fourth, I like having Moyer around as an “advisor” to help with the growth of our starters, especially his fellow left handers Hamels and Happ.
One concern I have is what will happen if things go south on him this year. Moyer seems like a real stand up guy. I hope that if, heaven forbid, he puts up Eaton-like numbers, he would step aside and let the Phils bring up Carrasco (or whoever) to take his spot.
Another concern is if Moyer is having a subpar year, another starter gets bitten by the injury bug, and we are forced to keep going with him despite poor performance.
Can’t get too far ahead with all of that stuff though. As it stands now I think it is a good move to bring him back.
Belt tightening measure: Fire Dubee and make Moyer player/pitching coach. (Jamie sees Rich as excess baggage.)
Frugal silent owners have raised stamp inked and ready. Mitch & Ricky will pitch in when Jamie hits the hill. Manuel will blow
bubbles on rail and not notice.
I would consider Moyer a lock with the Phils after his personal success last year as well as the teams. Not to mention he is a local guy who seems to thrive with the fans behind him, and the fans love him back equally. A one year deal is safe, or maybe 2 with the thought of retirement and a possible coaching spot after the 2nd year.
My concern is with JA Happ and whether he is starter quality or not. He seemed to have decent stuff for the most part for his few outings this year, but so did Kendrick when he first came up to the majors.
Does anyone know what happened to Chris Benson?
J Dubbz…The Phils released Benson at the end of August.
I have no problem with Carrasco starting at the minors next year. I think he will be in the bigs at some point next year. Moyer just seems like one of those emotional decisions teams have to make after winning a title, and if you want to stay relevant, you have to move past them. Like I said, if you want to bring him back on a 1year deal, and keep in the back of your mind that Carrasco is probably going to be stealing his starts towards the end of the season, then OK. I dont agree with you on Marson. I think Lou starts in the bigs right from the jump next year. He will be Ruiz’s backup, not Coste, and probably catch Myers/Blanton.
Anybody hear that they are working on Jason Donald at 3rd base? Sounds to me like the plan is to have Donald as utility infielder with Iguchi. And then move Dobbs into the outfield platoon.
Kevin…I can’t see Marson coming up to be the backup catcher. I’m figuring he will stay in the minors until they think he is ready to take over the starting job.
There are several factors at play here. Marson is only 22, he played AA last year, and Ruiz played well, especially in the second half of the season and in the postseason. Also, there is no way the Phils want Marson catching only 2 games a week next year.
I’m thinking that the Phils would really like Marson to have a full season at AAA before they bring him up. Unless Marson tears AAA to shreds and Ruiz tanks, I’m sure that’s what will happen.
As long as Marson continues his steady progression, I think he has a great shot at being the every day catcher in 2010. The Phils won’t be able to hold down, IMO. In that case I could see him as the starter and Ruiz as the backup.
Top prospects rarely go to AAA anymore, they excel at AA and make the move to the bigs. They kept him around as a emergency catcher this postseason, but they wont use him as a backup. I dont believe that. If you just wanted a emergency catcher then they would have brought up Jaramillo. Instead they were grooming Marson for a increased role next season. And yes I would not be suprised to see Marson as the everyday catcher in 2010.
That and I think that Coste is done as a Phillie.
Kevin…I could see Coste being done. In that case I can see Jaramillo being the backup to Ruiz in 2009. He just turned 26, which is a bit old for a prospect. Besides, he is not really the prospect anyway. I see Jaramillo being a stopgap/placeholder as the big league backup in 2009. Clearing him out of AAA opens up the every day spot for Marson.
I still feel that the Phils would rather see Marson play every day. Playing twice a week will not help his development, if it doesn’t hinder it. We all know that Marson is the future but if he is not ready (or if the Phils do not want to rush him because they have no pressing need to do so) for the starting job with the Phils in 2009, I’m guessing he will be in AAA with an eye toward moving up for good in 2010.
a couple of interesting notes from a Keith Law chat today on ESPN
Joe (Raleigh): Keith, From what I’ve heard, Jason Donald was exceptional in the AFL. Did you see him play? Does he have a future in Philly?
Kyle(Philadelphia): Do the Phillies have the prospects to get Holliday?
Holliday for Werth and Carrasco? Hope not. Holliday is as bad as Burrell defensively and away from Coores would maybe duplicate Werth!s numbers from last year [25 hr,280 avg.?]Guys, last year a major league scout on J.Mac!s show said Corasco is a #3 starter at best; has the opinion changed or what ?
The Holliday to the Phils rumors just keep picking up steam. How about this from si.com posted at 4:38 this afternoon:
“By Jon Heyman, SI.com
DANA POINT, Calif. — The world champion Phillies are one of the most aggressive pursuers of Rockies superstar outfielder Matt Holliday, sources tell SI.com.
The Rockies surely would be interested in Phillies centerfielder Shane Victorino, but it isn’t known whether Philadelphia would consider moving him. The Phillies have several other well-regarded young players, including catcher Lou Marson, shortstop Jason Donald and pitcher Carlos Carrasco. Sources indicate that the Phillies have enough good young players to be able to do a deal for Holliday if the sides can agree.
Baseball executives expect Holliday to be traded at some point this offseason, but nothing appears imminent.
Holliday batted .321 in 2008, his fourth straight .300 season, but he dipped to 25 home runs and 88 RBIs, the first time since 2005 that he failed to top 30 HRs and 100 RBIs. Holliday is on the trading block because he will be eligible for free agency after the 2009 season and the Rockies have concluded they have no hope to retain him. SI.com reported Wednesday that Holliday turned down Colorado’s offer of $68 million over four years plus an option that would bring it to $85 million.
Any teams interested in acquiring Holliday understand that they will be getting him for only one year. Several teams have shown interest, including the A’s, Mets and Rays, but so far it appears the Phillies may have the best chance among those teams”
I really don’t want to see Victorino, Marson, or Carrasco go anywhere. I don’t like Holliday that much, especially if he’ll only be a 1-year rental.
Holliday is a better player than Burrell on pretty much any measurable over the past three years, and he’s younger, and I think he’ll make less than Pat in 2009. Obviously don’t want to give up a lot for him (not Werth or Victorino), but he’d fit in very well on this team, and he’d be in a contract year, which is always nice. Splits away from Coors aren’t terrible (.296 BA, .370 OBP, .486 SLG, .856 OPS), and he’d be in the Bank… what about including Madsen in a deal for Holliday — dude’s value could not be much higher than it is right now. Donald’s great but unless he plays 3rd (would be nice) he’s not going to crack our lineup. Rumor is we are hot for Holliday, per SI’s Jon Heyman. Going to be interesting.
Interesting… I’d be willing to trade Madson while his value is high. Although it’s sad to see our baby go, any young, fire-throwing righty could take his place (and hopefully for less money). Especially if we are going to get an everyday player.
I would NOT trade Marson or Carrasco, however (or Donald, if he can really play third base). I’m not sure if we have enough outside of those guys to complement Madson in a trade for Holliday.
We got to where we are right now off a lot of homegrown talent. Hamels, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Myers, Ruiz etc. So what I am saying is that I too am opposed to Marson or Carrasco (who by the way is projected to a #2 or #3 in the bigs). I am also opposed to trading Donald if he is a legit 3rd baseman, as clicheguevara said. If is not, any is truly at shortstop or 2nd baseman then he is as good as gone. I am not opposed to Madson being shipped out, we may not be able to afford him anyway. Problem is that they would have to replace him via trade/FA cause we dont have anyone in our system like him, ie fire throwing right hander.