Everything, except the first paragraph, in post #13 was copied and pasted from an article by Jason Stark on espn.com.

I don’t know what he knows or how he knows it, but I have read similar things numerous times in the past, dating back to before Howard’s arbitration case last year. 

Whether Howard’s holding out for mega money is due to his father, his entire family, or because he’s decided this all on his own, the fact remains that he is holding out.  Since, by all estimates, he is in line for an arbitration award in the $15 mil range, he obviously figures he is worth more than that.  Bad news for us and our prospects of keeping him long term.

bski: how do we know that its his father doing this? is that common knowledge? s the media supposed to know stuff like that?

I have said many times that I don’t blame any player for trying to get what he can while he can (that’s the key for me, as most guys have a very small window of opportunity to collect a big check).  In spite of that, it would be nice to see a player recognize that he is in a winning situation (especially since they all profess that it’s all about wanting to win, that winning a championship is their top priority, that nothing matters except a ring, etc…), appreciate it, and take it into account during contract negotiations.

On the management side, it would be nice if they would take into account that these two guys are major components of a WS winner and extend a bit beyond what they would with others.

As much as it pains me to say, in these cases I side with the Phils.   Howard’s asking price, in years,  is just too high.  I’d pay him more money on a shorter deal, but 8 years is way to long to commit to him.  Hamels just completed his first season in the Phils system without an injury.  Problem is he also threw his most innings, by far, in doing so.  As such, it’s much too soon to think about a long term commitment to him.

I would love to see both Howard and Hamels play their entire careers (productively) in Phillies pinstripes, but I do not want the organization to overcommit to either of them, much less both of them, and end up doing more harm than good to the ballclub. 

Howard and Hamels were both key components to our championship, but they are only two guys.  Lidge was key, Romero was key, Rollins was key, Utley was key, you get the point.  I think management does recognize what they have built.  I also believe that they are trying to do everything they can to keep it together.  The thing is, they need to keep it all together.  You need a whole club, not just two guys.

Every time I read that Howard wants A-Rod money, I can’t help but think that if he gets it there is a pretty good chance he will end up in the same situation that A-Rod was in with the Rangers.  Then I wonder how long it would take before either the losing gets to him and he wants out or his new team realizes that that can’t build a complete, winning ballclub while paying him so much and decides to unload him.

I think the problem the Phils are facing, at least with Howard if not with Hamels as well, is that it takes two to tango and if the asking price is too high there won’t be any dancing.  (Here I’ll give credit to Rollins and Utley for agreeing to reasonable long term contracts.)

I think that if Hamels stays healthy and shows he can remain one of the top starters in the league, the Phils will do everything they can to keep him, even if it means extending beyond their comfort zone. ( Starting pitching is the name of the game after all, isn’t it?)

With Howard, I think we need to resign ourselves to the fact that he will be gone at some point.  I agree with Stark’s article that, unless they receive a good offer for him, they will ride him to as many wins as they can over the next few years and then let him walk.

RYAN HOWARD
Meet the man responsible for all this. Howard has made only one trip through the arbitration jungle. But he walked away last year with the most landscape-altering arbitration payout of all time.

He had just two-plus seasons of service time behind him back then. But he won his case and got a historic $10 million paycheck out of it. And the next sound you heard was salary structures crumbling all around baseball.

Now Howard is back for another round. And the first big mystery is: What salary will he file for? We’ve heard estimates ranging from $15 million to $17 million — for a player with three-plus seasons in the big leagues. Can you spell “cha-ching”?

Next question: What are the odds the Phillies can sign him, even for a year, without a hearing? And the answer, from virtually everyone who knows Howard and his family well, is simple: None. Zero.

Howard’s salary demands are being driven, in part, by his father’s belief that he is an unprecedented player who should collect unprecedented paychecks. So the Phillies have never come close to signing him to ANY contract, one-year or multi-year, at any point since he reached the big leagues. And while they would never say this out loud, they practically are resigned to the reality that they never will.

So that’s where the drama mounts. If that’s the case, how long will he stick around Philadelphia? And that answer easily could be: maybe only one more year.

Clubs that have spoken to the Phillies are convinced that they were gearing up this past summer to start exploring a Howard trade as early as this winter. Then they went and won the World Series. So there went that plan.

But what if the 2009 season has a different sort of ending — and Howard looks as unsignable as ever? Then get ready next winter for a barrage of Howard trade rumors, because the Phillies will have no choice but to start listening, with this guy suddenly two years from free agency.

Nevertheless, the Phillies haven’t ruled out Plan B: Hang onto Howard through 2011 (when he’ll be 32), hope they win again and then let him walk and collect his A-Rod contract elsewhere.

“It really wouldn’t shock me if that’s what they end up doing because of the age, because of the limitations defensively and because of the way his body’s going,” one general manager said. “With all that in play, I’m not sure they’ll get the kind of value for him they’d feel they have to get to move him.”

COLE HAMELS
Meet the co-star of the Phillies’ arbitration soap opera. Like Howard, Hamels has had trouble negotiating deals in his pre-arbitration years. Like Howard, Hamels erupted into stardom just before his first arbitration year arrived. And now, like Howard, he’ll be looking for record dollars.

It won’t be $10 million, because Hamels is working off the starting-pitcher pay scale, not the MVP slugger pay scale. But the buzz is Hamels’ request could top $5 million — based on the $4.6 million Chien-Ming Wang asked for last year as a first-timer in arbitration.

Wang lost his case and wound up with $4 million. But Hamels is coming off an ace-caliber season and a spectacular October for a team that won the World Series. So his leverage is off the charts.

But Hamels also appears less likely than Howard to push his negotiations all the way to a hearing. So this case has a good shot at a short-term resolution. The larger question, though, is: Can the Phillies sign this man for the long haul? And people we’ve surveyed in the industry are divided on that.

One National League GM said, “If it were me, I would sign him. I wouldn’t go beyond four years, but it’s so hard to find top-of-the-rotation starters. And he clearly defined last year that that’s what he is.”

But the other side is this: The Phillies haven’t guaranteed a contract or extension longer than three years for any starting pitcher in more than a decade. They wouldn’t do it for Curt Schilling. They wouldn’t do it for Brett Myers. And with Hamels not eligible for free agency until 2012, they’re not likely to take that step now, either.

If they wait, however, the landscape for No. 1 starters who reach free agency now has been stretched to seven years by Sabathia and to six by Johan Santana. So if Hamels just keeps doing what he’s doing, the Phillies are going to have to make a radical philosophical shift or start contemplating trading both Howard and Hamels. Yikes.

“That team,” one AL executive said, “is about to walk through a mine field.”

ALL THOSE OTHER PHILLIES
It’s tough to remember a World Series team with so many high-profile arbitration cases. Beyond Howard and Hamels, the Phillies have a half-dozen other cases hanging — including Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Joe Blanton and Ryan Madson. They all will get resolved. But this is a team whose total arbitration-class price tag could top $25 million. And that will take its toll on the construction of the bottom of the roster.