All the trade rumor talk has focused on Roy Halladay, and rightly so, but the Phillies are also unconvinced that John Mayberry Jr. can be an effective bat off the bench and are looking at both the Nationals Josh Willingham and the Rockies Ryan Spilborghs, according to several media outlets.
Either would be a great pick-up in my opinion. They could spell both Werth and Ibanez, and if we get to the World Series, could provide a real solid right-handed DH option, which we do not currently have.
Willingham is hitting .297 with 13 HR, 18 2B and 29 RBI while Spilborghs is hitting .259 with 6 HR, 16 2B and 35 RBI.
I would love to grab Willingham, who has historically killed the Phillies and has a great eye at the plate (.415 OBP this season) but either player would be a smart addition provided we don’t give up too much.
Now back to obsessing about Halladay…
{ 42 comments… read them below or add one }
Both Durbin and Romero on the DL today. Called up Drew Carpenter and Tyler Walker.
Damn, Cole can’t catch a break when it comes to run support…9 times out of 10 that ball Howard hit goes out of the park….
I think Willingham is a really good option for a lot of teams. He’s really flown under the radar, playing part time for the Nationals, but he could really have an impact in a playoff race.
I gotta like the Willingham option more. The Rockies are in the thick of the Wild Card race and are going to want to upgrade their big league club. Their weakness is in the bullpen and are probably going to want Madson or Eyre – probably Eyre because he adds another LH to their RH-heavy bullpen.
On the other hand, the Nats will probably gladly take mid-level prospects for Willingham. Much rather go that route. Hewitt for Willingham maybe??
The Inquirer reported today that the Blue Jays are looking for a package that starts with Happ, Drabek and Brown.
You have to think that this is poisturing on their part, as they must know we won’t give up Happ and Drabek together and they are looking to say “OK, I guess we’ll just take Drabek.”
If they really do want those 3 to start the package and won’t budge, I don’t think a deal will happen.
By the way, last night in AAA, Michael Taylor went 3-4 with a 2-run HR and a walk. I think he’s making the jump just fine.
I’m not sure who it would take to get Willingham.
I don’t think we’d give up on Hewitt yet. We gave him a $1 mill + bonus last year and can’t call him a failure just yet.
I think it would take a similar player to what we gave up for Kyle Lohse (Matt Maloney). Maybe Johan Flande?
Ugh, Happ, Drabek, and Brown…that would hurt.
I can’t imagine they would give up Happ. The whole point of a Halladay trade is to give us the best chance of winning in the next 2 years, and losing Happ would absolutely hurt in that respect.
Pete…….Here is the latest from Jon Heyman. It seems more reasonable, obviously depending on who the either is, who the or is, and how many other prospects are involved.
“The Phillies and Blue Jays remain engaged in dialogue regarding Halladay, and the defending World Series champions are still viewed by baseball executives as the most logical and likely landing spot for the perennial All-Star. With deep pockets, their deeper reservoir of prospects and a resolve to repeat, the Phillies appear to have maintained the front-running position in the most-watched derby in baseball, with the teams exchanging names and apparently making some progress in recent days, league sources indicate.”
“The Jays are said to be aiming for a package that includes one of two top young pitchers, Kyle Drabek or J.A. Happ, plus one of two top outfielders, either oMichael Taylor or Dominic Brown, plus a couple other highly regarded prospects. Shortstop Jason Donald and pitcher Carlos Carrasco are among other young prospects who are believed to have been discussed.”
“They’re trying hard,” one exec said of the Phillies.
“The Phillies told the local media and other baseball people they will do what the can to keep Drabek, a dynamic young pitcher with terrific stuff. If the Jays settle for Happ, who’s having a terrific rookie season, they surely would insist that the remainder of the package be stronger. But while Drabek is considered the pitcher with the higher upside (”he has a plus fastball and plus breaking ball,” one scout said), one Blue Jays-connected person said they could see Toronto doing a deal without Drabek.”
“Halladay seems more likely than ever to leave Toronto with the revelation Thursday via Ricciardi that Halladay told the Jays he wouldn’t be signing an extension beyond 2010, which was the trigger to put him on the trading block. One acquaintance of Halladay said he believes he is “emotionally gone,” and sources indicate that Halladay — who has a full no-trade clause — sees the Phillies as a favorable option.”
If you include Happ in the deal, you’d better be damn sure that…
- You don’t include Drabek (you can include Carrasco) and that Drabek can pitch in the rotation starting in 2010
- Pedro Martinez or Rodrigo Lopez can pitch well in the 5th spot for the rest of the year
After writing that – I actually would be OK if we traded Happ instead of Drabek. A 2010 rotation of…
1. Roy Halladay
2. Cole Hamels
3. Joe Blanton
4. Jamie Moyer
5. Kyle Drabek
would certainly be intriging
thanks bski -
I will officially be upset if we don’t land Halladay. It seems inevitable, doesn’t it?
Pete, I know they are lefties, but the way the Pirates are selling what do you think about Zack Duke or Paul Maholm? Very Joe Blanton-y deal however you don’t sell the farm. Not crazy about another lefty but both these guys could be had and are both young and have good stuff.
I have also always like Jason Bergmann from the Nats (I watch a lot of Nats games here in DC). He would be an upgrade over Tyler Walker and could be a throw-in to a Willingham deal. He is also a capable starter, I don’t know why the Nats don’t give him fair shot.
If we go after a “B” pitcher, I think I’d rather have Jon Garland from the D-Backs because of his post-season experience and right-handedness.
However – the Pirates DO make awful trades, so we might be able to get one of those guys super cheap.
That settles it for me. It’s time to include Drabek in the deal. If trading Drabek means that it will save us a prospect and/or lower the required quality of another prospect or two that would be included in the deal, then Drabek needs to be a part of the package.
I can’t imagine Drabek’s ceiling to be above Halladay. Plus the two-headed question of if he will reach his ceiling and when that might happen cannot be disregarded.
Halladay is as close to a sure thing as there is right now, and we happen to be a team, with the bulk of our core players in the prime of their careers, that is built to win right now.
Again, we have the quantity and quality of prospects that should allow us to weather losing a few in this deal. We have the money to take on his salary (and possibly to keep him beyond 2010). Lastly we have the legitimate opportunity to win a couple more world series. Heck, even Gillick is saying we should make the deal, which surprised me.
I will be very disappointed if we don’t get this done.
Pete,
Based on everything you’ve seen and heard so far, if you had to put a percentage on the chance a deal for Halladay to the Phils gets done what would it be?
jurnee16-
I’m with you guys. After all this hype I will definitely be disappointed if Halladay doesn’t end up a Phillie. Goodbye Drabek, best of luck in Toronto.
I’m also tired of hearing the Blanton argument. We got lucky last year that he pitched so well. Also, we had Myers pitching as a legit no. 2 starter at the time. Blanton as the no. 2 in the playoffs scares. Getting another mediocre pitcher doesn’t relieve any concerns I have with our rotation in the post season.
Yeah, Drew, that’s definitely where my mind is…the post season. I mean, at the risk of jinxing us, it sure looks like we can win the division this year as is. It is also reasonable to figure that keeping most of our top prospects will keep winning in the future. Thing is, we’ve moved beyond looking to be a winning ball club. At least I have and I hope that the Phils’ braintrust has, too.
While I understand Amaro’s need to factor the future of the franchise into his decision making, not to mention the desire to keep his job, our current situation is very different from what it was just a few years ago. We have moved from a winning ball club looking to win the division/make the playoffs/get in the mix for the world series to a world championship club who is looking to remain there with a core in it’s prime and only under contract for a couple more years. As much as he needs to balance the future with the now, he can’t get too far-sighted and shortchange us right now.
Well if the Cardinals were in the running for Halladay (they were rumored early on) they seem to be out of it now after getting Holliday. But they look like they are a team to contend with the likes of us and the Dodgers with him in their lineup.
I hope your right Pete…it would be a huge let down if it didn’t happen at this point….
The Holliday trade was a very good one for the Cardinals. Its pretty clear now that the 3 teams at the top of the NL are the Phillies, Dodgers and Cardinals. I think it is unlikely we win the pennant without making the Halladay move (though obviously that is not guarantee we win it, either).
In a playoff series, I think I would fear the Cardinals more. They have a great 1-2 in Carpenter and Wainwright, the best player in baseball in Pujols who could have an affect like Bonds did when the Giants went, some good hitters around him now in Holliday, DeRosa, Ludwick and Colby Rasmus and a somehow dominant closer in Ryan Franklin. Also, great home field advantage.
I think it’s also worthwhile to point out that the Mets are 2 games ahead of the Pirates in the NL and I have seen talk about whether or not they should start trading players and rebuild. Regardless of what happens with the Phils, that’s just fantastic.
Yeah, you get the feeling that being back in the NL will cure what’s ailing Holliday, don’t you. He should help the Cards this year and who knows, maybe he’ll fall in love with “baseball heaven” and stay in St. Louis. The Cards can offer him arbitration after this year and if he declines they will get two high draft picks as compensation when he leaves.
I’ve already started reading praise for Billy Beane. I don’t see it. In essence he turned Huston Street, Carlos Gonzales, and Greg Smith into Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson with Matt Holliday being an intermediary step in the process. Will the A’s be better off? I doubt it and with the way Beane turns over players we’ll probably never know. The Moneyball wheel has been going around and around for a while now with not much to show for it. I read the book, but I haven’t drunk the Kool-Aid so I don’t see Beane as the genius that the insiders, who have apparently partaken, do.
I”m willing to believe that Beane is doing better than the average GM and he has been able to build better clubs for the A’s than they would have otherwise had. Problem is, he is handcuffed playing Moneyball when he needs to be playing MONEYball to have any chance at putting together a championship-caliber club.
Another Halladay update that was posted an hour ago, The Knobler Blog , sounds even more promising.
It states that scouts for the Red Sox and the Brewers left Toronto this morning, but that Charlie Kerfeld stayed. It goes on to say that while some people question whether David Montgomery would approve giving up the prospects and spending the money to get Halladay, two sources state that Montgomery and Amaro are on the “same page” and that Phillies people are driven to win a second world series and they think that Halladay would give them the best chance.
If all it takes is Drabek (who probably gets more ballyhoo and a greater projection than he deserves because of his father’s constitution and accomplishments), Happ (who’s riding his honeymoon stretch) and Brown (who may become an ML all-star someday), Phillies’ braintrust has an easy decision. Hail! Hail! Roy Halladay!!
While it would hurt to give up both Happ and Drabek I would still make the deal because I have a feeling we could get enough out of the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation from Lopez, Moyer, and Pedro the rest of the year…I would feel alot better about the deal if we could sign Halladay to an extension but even if we didn’t we would get 2 1st rounders and 3 first rounders in two years would help expedite the process of replenishing our farm system….
jjg, thinking about it that way really makes me feel better about giving those guys up…hopefully the Phils’ executives will look at it in that way and then pull the trigger….
jurnee, hopefully. I think Monty is jonesin’ for another ring (and yearlong celebration) and Ruben wants his first GM jewel and that Phils are gonna pull the trigger. We’ll soon see.
Halladay’s line against the Rays tonight: 9 IP 4H 1ER 10K…i’m getting goosebumps thinking about how good he would be in the NL….
If I remember correctly the Jays were scouting Carrasco tonight…unfortunately I doubt he impressed them, he gave up 6 runs in 6 innings….
Carrasco’s crappy season has been a season long ploy by Ruben and the Phillies front-office to make him look like he is terrible, so we wouldn’t give him up in any blockbuster deals. That’s why he has stayed in the minors, because if he pitched in the majors, he would be throwing bullets. As long as he is the minors, he can pretend to stink and it doesn’t matter that they lose games.
Once we trick the Blue Jays into thinking that somebody other than Carrasco is our top prospect and use the other player as the marquee player in the deal, Carrasco will “miraculously” retrun to the #1 prospect form that he was and be primed for the Phillies rotation as the #3 starter in 2010.
/a man can dream right??
Just like I said yesterday, Holliday comes back to the NL and immediately starts hitting. Great timing for us. Why couldn’t this deal have been made next week?
Here is the latest (1:18PM) from Jayson Stark:
The Blue Jays formally proposed that package (Happ, Drabek, & Brown) to the Phillies on Thursday, in exchange for the 32-year-old Cy Young award-winner, ESPN’s Peter Gammons confirmed Friday.
But two baseball people familiar with the Phillies’ thinking told ESPN.com on Saturday that that’s not a deal the Phillies are willing to make.
According to an executive of one team that has spoken with the Phillies’ brass, the Phillies are adamantly opposed to giving up both Happ and Drabek. There are indications they would like to substitute pitching prospect Carlos Carrasco for one of those two, preferably in place of the highly regarded Drabek.
“The Phillies are going to have to step up if they want him,” said one talent evaluator involved in Halladay discussions. “Happ is OK [as a prospect], and Drabek is a good prospect, but neither of those guys is ever going to be what Halladay is. They’re prospects, and Halladay is Halladay; he’s the best. If Happ and Drabek are not both in the deal, it’s not going to happen.”
Blue Jays officials have told other clubs that Philadelphia still hasn’t informed them it was unwilling to include both pitchers in a package for Holliday. But another source said the two sides are currently discussing “a list of seven or eight names” that will constitute the framework of a 3-for-1 or 4-for-1 deal.
Drabek, Happ and Brown are on that list, along with Carrasco, outfielder Michael Taylor, catcher Lou Marson and shortstop Jason Donald. It’s believed that hard-throwing Class A righthander Jason Knapp was also on the list at one time. But Knapp just went on the disabled list with “shoulder fatigue.” So, according to one source, talk about him has “cooled.”
while mathematically; Happ + Drabek +any stud OF prospect is definitely worth giving up for Halladay – you must think short term too. Take out Happ and we get one less starter. while Halladay is worth it and THEN some, he onoly pitches every 5 days; can’t be praying for Myers to return or some schmuck to fill Happ’s spot and give us some solid innings. Phillies are playing it well now. they shouldnt give in. Best case scenario, we will steal him like Santana to the Mets (somewhat) bcos face it; they need to trade him soon.
I still have that feeling that the Jays asking price will come down. They’ve done so much talking about trading him that I would be surprised if they didn’t. I don’t mind giving up Drabek because he’s the guy that makes this deal possible. And I really don’t mind giving up Dom Brown or Taylor because we have so much depth at the position. I just don’t want to give up Happ with the way he’s been pitching (despite yesterday) Halladay and Hamels would be tough in the playoffs but I don’t want to open one hole in the rotation to fix another. I don’t care if we have to give up more prospects to do it (screw the future) I don’t want Happ to be part of any deal.
If I were the GM I’d offer Drabek Brown and Donald. I’d add a midlevel prospect or two if needed. And I could be talked into adding Carasco to that.
That seems fair right? We get a rotation of Halladay, Hamels, Blanton and Happ for the playoffs. They get the OF and pitcher(s) they want plus a shortstop who can step in when Scutaro leaves in the off-season. Donald and Brown are blocked with us for years so it’s not a big risk with them.
What do you guys think? Do you think the Phillies can get a deal done for less than the Happ Drabek and Brown deal?
Bball, what you propose sounds reasonable, but that does not mean it will happen. I’m sure a lot rides on what other teams are willing o bring to the table. Its not about fair value as much as market value.
What do the Indians want the Phillies to send in exchange for Cliff Lee? He might be the best option, although I would still prefer Halladay. Lee is not a bad option, but Hallday is the best. Lee is second.
Looks like the Jays and Phils are waiting to see who blinks first. But you know what? It’s damn good to be a Phillies fan these days. Even though I’ve changed my mind about Halladay a million times, I’d like to look at it as a win-win situation.
If we acquire Halladay, we get a sure-fire ace who has already proven he can shut down the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. Halladay and Hamels could team up to do exactly what Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling did for the 2001 Diamondbacks. Maybe twice. Or even more if Halladay likes it here so much that he signs an extension later on.
If we don’t acquire Halladay, then we have another generation of home-grown talent ready to extend our winning tradition into the next generation. Only two times have I seen our farm system have this kind of impact: the early ’70s core of Schmidt, Bowa, Luzinski, Boone, et al, and the current nucleus of Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, and so on. The farm system we have now is right up there with the other two.
Either way, the future is very exciting
Yeah, sometimes I wonder if it is a sign of the end of days or something.
20 years of mostly frustration with the team and MLB’s unfair playing field turned me into a fair weathered Phillies fan. But I’m not to ashamed to enjoy things now that the sun is shining.
I am a diehard Sixers fan, but maybe another decade of mismanagement will beat me into submission…
Two words to offer perspective for all you Happ lovers…
Kyle Kendrick
Felder: my thoughts exactly but there is a difference; while Kendrick was just basically pitching his game till the scouting report caught up, Happ is becoming stronger with each start. aside from having better stuff.
I want to see Halladay, Happ and Hamels in 2010. maybe thats being too greedy!
felder-
there is a huge, huge difference between kendrick and happ. the peripheral numbers a pitcher has (H/9 and K/9 particularly) are a big indicator for long-term success. Kendrick had very, very low K/9 numbers and fairly high H/9 numbers, inferring he was the beneficiarly of a lot of luck in his first season with the Phils. His downfall was easily predicted (as it was here before last season). Happ, on the other hand, has very strong K/9 and H/9 numbers in both the minors and majors, inferring that he is getting by because he has good stuff, not because he’s getting lucky. Happ is a far better prospect than Kendrick ever was. He’s not an all-star, but it appears he has a future as a mid-rotation starter, not a career minor leaguer, like Kendrick will be.
I’ll give you Happ is better than Kendrick, but by how much?
Have you seen his splits? Take a look at his numbers against teams not from San Diego, Pittsburgh, DC and Queens.
Minors:
Happ: 528 IP, 3.34 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 9.3 K/9
Kendrick: 662 IP, 4.18 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 5.9 K/9
Majors (as starter):
Happ: 106 IP, 3.23 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.9 H/9, 6.3 K/9
Kendrick (2007 only): 121 IP, 3.87 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 3.6 K/9
ERA and WHIP might be somewhat similar, but the H/9 and K/9 for Kendrick were clear indicators he was not a long term solution. It was predicted here and many other places. Happ’s peripheral’s aren’t elite, but his H/9 are 9th best in the NL this season, and he’s shown throughout his entire career that he’s tough to hit.
Happ is a lot better than Kendrick, I believe.