Comments on: Phillies Rumors: Phillies looking at Willingham, Spilborghs

By: Pete

Pete — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 02:06:25 +0000

Minors:

Happ: 528 IP, 3.34 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 9.3 K/9
Kendrick: 662 IP, 4.18 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 5.9 K/9

Majors (as starter):

Happ: 106 IP, 3.23 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.9 H/9, 6.3 K/9
Kendrick (2007 only): 121 IP, 3.87 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 3.6 K/9

ERA and WHIP might be somewhat similar, but the H/9 and K/9 for Kendrick were clear indicators he was not a long term solution. It was predicted here and many other places. Happ’s peripheral’s aren’t elite, but his H/9 are 9th best in the NL this season, and he’s shown throughout his entire career that he’s tough to hit.

Happ is a lot better than Kendrick, I believe.

By: Felder

Felder — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 23:47:38 +0000

I’ll give you Happ is better than Kendrick, but by how much?

Have you seen his splits? Take a look at his numbers against teams not from San Diego, Pittsburgh, DC and Queens.

By: Pete

Pete — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 13:23:05 +0000

felder-

there is a huge, huge difference between kendrick and happ. the peripheral numbers a pitcher has (H/9 and K/9 particularly) are a big indicator for long-term success. Kendrick had very, very low K/9 numbers and fairly high H/9 numbers, inferring he was the beneficiarly of a lot of luck in his first season with the Phils. His downfall was easily predicted (as it was here before last season). Happ, on the other hand, has very strong K/9 and H/9 numbers in both the minors and majors, inferring that he is getting by because he has good stuff, not because he’s getting lucky. Happ is a far better prospect than Kendrick ever was. He’s not an all-star, but it appears he has a future as a mid-rotation starter, not a career minor leaguer, like Kendrick will be.

By: jkay

jkay — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 12:55:28 +0000

Felder: my thoughts exactly but there is a difference; while Kendrick was just basically pitching his game till the scouting report caught up, Happ is becoming stronger with each start. aside from having better stuff.

I want to see Halladay, Happ and Hamels in 2010. maybe thats being too greedy!

By: Felder

Felder — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 02:48:32 +0000

Two words to offer perspective for all you Happ lovers…

Kyle Kendrick

By: tk76

tk76 — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 00:56:49 +0000

Yeah, sometimes I wonder if it is a sign of the end of days or something.

20 years of mostly frustration with the team and MLB’s unfair playing field turned me into a fair weathered Phillies fan. But I’m not to ashamed to enjoy things now that the sun is shining.

I am a diehard Sixers fan, but maybe another decade of mismanagement will beat me into submission…

By: Drolz

Drolz — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 20:40:20 +0000

Looks like the Jays and Phils are waiting to see who blinks first. But you know what? It’s damn good to be a Phillies fan these days. Even though I’ve changed my mind about Halladay a million times, I’d like to look at it as a win-win situation.

If we acquire Halladay, we get a sure-fire ace who has already proven he can shut down the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. Halladay and Hamels could team up to do exactly what Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling did for the 2001 Diamondbacks. Maybe twice. Or even more if Halladay likes it here so much that he signs an extension later on.

If we don’t acquire Halladay, then we have another generation of home-grown talent ready to extend our winning tradition into the next generation. Only two times have I seen our farm system have this kind of impact: the early ’70s core of Schmidt, Bowa, Luzinski, Boone, et al, and the current nucleus of Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, and so on. The farm system we have now is right up there with the other two.

Either way, the future is very exciting

By: The Real Rob

The Real Rob — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 03:15:20 +0000

What do the Indians want the Phillies to send in exchange for Cliff Lee? He might be the best option, although I would still prefer Halladay. Lee is not a bad option, but Hallday is the best. Lee is second.

By: tk76

tk76 — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 03:14:09 +0000

Bball, what you propose sounds reasonable, but that does not mean it will happen. I’m sure a lot rides on what other teams are willing o bring to the table. Its not about fair value as much as market value.

By: bball

bball — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 01:33:17 +0000

I still have that feeling that the Jays asking price will come down. They’ve done so much talking about trading him that I would be surprised if they didn’t. I don’t mind giving up Drabek because he’s the guy that makes this deal possible. And I really don’t mind giving up Dom Brown or Taylor because we have so much depth at the position. I just don’t want to give up Happ with the way he’s been pitching (despite yesterday) Halladay and Hamels would be tough in the playoffs but I don’t want to open one hole in the rotation to fix another. I don’t care if we have to give up more prospects to do it (screw the future) I don’t want Happ to be part of any deal.

If I were the GM I’d offer Drabek Brown and Donald. I’d add a midlevel prospect or two if needed. And I could be talked into adding Carasco to that.

That seems fair right? We get a rotation of Halladay, Hamels, Blanton and Happ for the playoffs. They get the OF and pitcher(s) they want plus a shortstop who can step in when Scutaro leaves in the off-season. Donald and Brown are blocked with us for years so it’s not a big risk with them.

What do you guys think? Do you think the Phillies can get a deal done for less than the Happ Drabek and Brown deal?