Well, Jon Heyman of CNNSI.com is reporting a doozie of a rumor today, stating that the Phillies are “going hard” after Rockies left-fielder Matt Holliday.
This statement is so loaded with so many implications, it’s hard to gather my thoughts in an organized fashion, but I will do my best.
My first thought is the argument I made during the Rollins/Holliday MVP race in 2007. Matt Holliday is NOT an all-star player away from Coors Field. If you take his away numbers from last season, and extrapolate them out to a 162-game season you get the following: .308 BA, .405 OBP, .486 SLG%, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 38 2B. Good average, good on-base percentage, but his power and run production fall off a cliff. He had 15 HR and 59 RBI at home last year and 10 HR and 29 RBI away. You could assume he would improve slightly because he wouldn’t have to continuously adjust playing away from Coors’ and because of CBP’s dimensions, but what that gets you is Pat Burrell’s production with a better batting average, less strikeouts, some stolen bases and improved fielding.
Pat Burrell’s production with a better batting average, less strikeouts, some stolen bases and improved fielding. OK, so the point of the last paragraph was to say I don’t think Matt Holliday is as good as the media makes him out to be. BUT, that final sentence does sound kind of appealing, doesn’t it? You could bat Holliday fourth, in between Utley and Howard to split them up, and he would get as good of pitches as he’s ever seen. He’s 28 and in a contract year (more on that later) and would probably perform very well in 2009.
Holliday would absolutely improve the team. So the question then becomes… what do you give up for him? I’ve heard a lot of names thrown around including: Victorino, Werth, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Michael Taylor and Lou Marson. Victorino is completely off limits, and trading Werth (and losing Burrell) would still leave a OF spot open. You have to think that Carrasco would have to be part of the deal, there has to be a main chip, and Victorino can’t be it. I’m OK with giving up Donald. I like him a lot, but he is expendable. He’s really a 2B/SS prospect, but we are trying him out at 3B since we are set at those positions. He could be an above-average player but not likely an all-star. But, the fact of the matter is, we would likely only be getting Holliday for one year. Do you give up 2 top-level prospects for that? I don’t think Carrasco is going to be a Hamels, and I don’t think Donald is going to be an Utley, and you’ve got to give something to get something, so I would make that deal. Carrasco and Donald (and maybe a C-level prospect) for Holliday.
I’m very hesitant to give up Carrasco, because young pitchers are at a premium in the majors, but our system is improving, and we’ve got several young pitchers behind him. He wouldn’t make an impact until 2010, and even then, you never know. Meanwhile, acquiring Holliday at a fair price would be the type of bold move that would show we aren’t going to rest on our laurels after our 2nd World Series victory in 100+ years. He’s a little overrated but is the type of for-average, less strikeouts hitter that our line-up could use. AND, if he does leave in free agency after next season, we would get some high draft picks to help make up for the loss of Carrasco and Donald.
So will Amaro start off his tenure with a bang? What would you guys give up (if anything) for Matt Holliday?
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{ 24 comments… read them below or add one }
Agree with you about him Pete, would rather platoon and add a pitcher [B.Penny?]. If we have a budget and can!t do both, give me pitching.
Splitting up those left-handed bats without trading Victorino sounds delightful. I am not worried about the Home/Road split. Holliday is 28 years old and in his prime, he was an absolute monster two years ago.
Lineup:
1. Rollins 2. Utley 3. Holliday 4. Howard
Bottom of the ninth, top of the order coming up in a one run game…good luck opposing pitcher. Plus there would be so much versatility to play around with the lineup with Holliday instead of Burrell for slump-busting purposes (Werth and Victorino can both bat in the 2 hole). The one-year rental idea kinda sucks, but you can cross the bridge when you get to it. He won’t have Brad Hawpe hitting behind him here.
i say they do it as long as victorino an werth stay if not let holliday go to some other team we did just win the world series with them both playin everyday out there
If we could get him for the un-proven (in the big leagues) prospects you listed above that would be ideal. Who knows, maybe we sign him to a 4-6 yr deal during the year if everything is working out on both sides.
He may not be “all that” but certainly he is an improvement over Burrell, who I am not slighting. Burrell did a great job for us while he was here and was definitely an important part of our 2008 WS.
If Holliday realizes that he is worth the $12-15 mil range, maybe the Phils will go after a long term deal being he is in the same age bracket (28-30) as the rest of the core of this team.
Did the article refer to the package deal discussed yesterday with Atkins?
Another name to consider would be Madson, who is likely gone after 2009, though I would hate to break up what worked so well this year. The Rocks tend to favor power arms because junkballers are useless in that air. This is a great debate, how aggressive do we get, do we prioritize in another area (are we looking at any available starters?), are there lesser options in LF that would be OK? Great to be talking Phillies in November and how best to defend a title. I wonder if Madson-Donald would do it. Maybe not. I love our team, Holliday would be a great fit, but we have to be very careful what we offer up. Personally, I think Vic and Werth (recently a part-timer) are replaceable, and we probably tend to overvalue both because we know them so well and both were important parts of winning a title. Tough call. For any deal, we must assume we’ll only have Holliday for a year, so what would you pay for that year (a contract year)?
I’d include Madson, take away Carrasco and add another good prospect.
Maybe Madson, Donald and Michael Taylor? That probably wouldn’t be enough.
Here’s my question. If we are willing to give up our top minor league talent for Matt Holliday, why don’t we instead give it up for Jake Peavy? Peavy is on the market, and WILL be traded. He is signed for 4 more years at $52 million (or, our exact window of opportunity with our current core) and is an elite starting pitcher. I’d give up pretty much anyone that the Padres wanted. Carrasco, Marson, Donald and Taylor? Done. Madson, Carrasco, Marson, Donald? Done. To be honest, I’d even throw in Victorino. Victorino, Carrasco, Donald, Taylor? Sure!
Hamels, Peavy, Myers, Blanton, Moyer/Happ….. that would strike some serious fear into opposing line-ups.
id be fine with trading for holliday but in my opinion it would have to be a sign and trade deal and with scott boras as his agent that may prove difficult
Pete, take a look at this blog entry after the Cubs are showing interest in Peavy. This guy makes some good points:
http://luolsdong.blogspot.com/2008/11/case-against-peavy.html. CBP and Phils phans are similar to Wrigley and the Cubs fans. Peavy has a fragile psyche, he has been labeled soft. Thanks, but I’ll take the Joe Blanton’s of the world who know their role as third starters and come a lot more cheaply.
That’s a good question, Pete. According to mlbtraderumors.com, however, it sounds like it’s a two team race for Peavy between the Cubs and the Braves with the Cubs now having the upper hand. With those two battling it out, the trade packages will escalate in value. It might be very costly for the Phils to jump over Chicago and Atlanta to land Peavy.
About Holliday, I’m wondering if the price for him will come down. Everybody knows he only has one year left on his contract and that he is a Boras client. In light of that, I’m thinking that nobody is going to meet the Rockies’ asking price so soon. It is possible that we could swing a less costly (in terms of prospects) deal for him if we wait a bit.
By the way, keep up the good work on this blog. You guys share a lot of the same thoughts as me and absolutely blow away the awful philly.com, team page coverage and all associated comments…I am used to seeing the “SIGN URLACKKER!!!!11111!!!!” commenters on the Eagles MB. Fools.
I am not sure if I love Victorino from my head or my heart. Sure he was great in the stretch and solidified our emotions by showing his right there on the field in September and August. He is a well liked guy and I don’t think anyone in the Delaware Valley can argue that.
Now as far as talent goes, he is by far the best outfielder we have and have had for many years, hence the gold glove he just won. He is the quickest outfielder on our team and one of the quickest in baseball, hands down. He also has a cannon for an arm and can make plays which keeps opposing baserunners from testing him. From the offensive side, he is our fastest player on the basepaths and is a pretty good base stealer, who I think will only get better with Davey Lopes coaching him. He is one of two switch hitters in our lineup, and can bat 1, 2, or 6. This is a deadly combo in my mind with Rollins as they can swing the lineup severly to our advantage based on the pitcher. He creates runs, especially in high pressure situations. And he plays with emotion which in my opinion is a great thing because this guy wants to win, day in and day out. Now can you replace that? I don’t think so. Not at his age and price tag right now.
Madson is also a Boras client…that could help, not hinder a trade with both players involved…a back end bullpen of Bucholz, Madson, and Corpas is strong and appealing for that ballpark with the departure of Fuentes.
J Dubbz…Agree about Victorino.
Best thing about Shane is he did all that making $480,000. His value is ridiculous, even if he’s in line for a serious bump this year in arbitration. That’s why we hold on to him, beyond the little things, versatility, and emotions we have. He’s just provides crazy value. I wonder how that value dynamic changes if he gets a big reward or we pony up a multi-year deal.
word, jdubbz.
BSKI- I think the price for Holliday is definitely coming down. Last year they were asking for Victorino and a bunch of prospects. Teams lose their bargaining power when it comes down to the end of their control of the player. Look at the slop we got for Scott Rolen because we waited to long.
For an offseason deal for Holliday I think it will take one good prospect and a few mediocre ones. Last year everybody was talking about Johan being traded for all 3 Yankees top pitching prospects and look he went to the Mets for 1 good ML ready prospect in Gomez and a few other mid prospects.
From the Rockies point of view now they HAVE to get something for him so don’t lose him for draft picks. I think they’d be happy with Carrasco and a few average double A guys. I don’t think they are in a position to ask for much more and if they do ask for more then we shouldn’t do it.
Note: I wouldn’t do the deal unless we had a contract in place with Holliday for at least 3 years.
Note #2: I’m not as high on Carrasco as a lot of other people because I think he has control issues. I saw him in Double A last year and he got rocked. He walked at least 5 guys and gave up homeruns once he had to come over the plate. Granted it’s only one start but he is far from a sure thing as with any other prospect. Guys like Jamie Moyer and Maddux prove that control is more important than great stuff. Vicente Padillia always had great stuff and look where that got him.
bball, Yeah I’m more inclined to wait and see if that doesn’t put some pressure on the Rockies to accept less in return. This is especially true if the Phils most likely figure they’ll only have Holliday for one year.
I, like you, would feel differently if we were able to sign Holliday for a few years up front but, considering he is a Boras client, that is unlikely. Not having his players test the free agent market is anathema to him.
bski-
yeah, it seems like its down to the Cubs and Braves. But looking at the packages, we would at least put together a competitive offer. especially if they braves aren’t biting on giving up some top guys.
bball-
the price for holliday will probably come down. but there is NO WAY Boras lets him sign before hitting the open market, and the only way we re-sign him is if we either decide Howard is gone or he plays poorly enough we can get him at a discount.
I was going to post this under “What Amaro Inherits”, but I figure that the baseball talk has moved here now. Anyway, for whatever it’s worth, Todd Zolecki just reported on the Phils new front office arrangement:
Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has his men in place for the future.
From the Phillies:
Benny Looper is a new assistant general manager in charge of player personnel. Looper will oversee the scouting and player development areas. Looper, 60, had spent the previous 23 years with the Seattle Mariners in various capacities at the major and minor league levels, including most recently vice president of player personnel (2006-08), VP of player development & scouting (2003-06) and VP of player development (2002-03). Looper spent five seasons as a player in the St. Louis Cardinals’ minor league system. He is the uncle of major league pitcher Braden Looper.
Chuck LaMar was promoted to assistant general manager, player development & scouting. While his main duty will be to manage the player development department, he will also cross-check at the amateur and professional levels. LaMar, 52, joined the Phillies in October of 2007 and spent the past year as the director of professional scouting. Prior to joining the Phillies, LaMar spent a year with the Washington Nationals as special assistant to the general manager and national cross-checker (2007) and 10 years as the general manager of the Tampa Bay Rays (1995-2006).
Mike Ondo has been promoted to pro scouting coordinator. Since joining the Phillies in 1998, Ondo, 33, has worked in the Baseball Operations department, primarily in scouting & player development. He spent the last two years as assistant director, minor leagues, while also assisting the major league coaching staff on scouting reports and statistical analysis.
Dallas Green (senior advisor to the GM), Charley Kerfeld (special assistant to the GM), Gordon Lakey (director, major league scouting), Steve Noworyta (director, minor league operations) and Marti Wolever (director, scouting) are all remaining with the organization.
As previously announced, former GM Pat Gillick will also remain with the club as an advisor to Amaro and club president David Montgomery.
Kind of confusing, no? Seems like a lot of overlap. I wonder who reports to whom? Looper must be a Gillick find. Anyway, I hope we’ve filled the Arbuckle void and we’re good going forward.
Pete, didn’t I hear that Peavy had a list of clubs he would go to? I see that he has a full no-trade clause in place for 2008 and 2009. If so, he may not even want to come here. If he would, it is certainly worth exploring, if for no other reason than to further deplete whoever does get him, especially if it ends up being the Braves.
true. forgot about that.
he just added the Angels and Yankees to the list, so I would imagine, being the World Champions and all, we might be able to get our way on there. Unless he hates CBP, which is possible.
Pete, any interest in B.Penny; he is supposedly available.
just commented in the other Phillies thread, but worth repeating:
Holliday to the…..A’s? huh?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/11/10/heyman.holliday/index.html?eref=sircrc