Maybe the off-season won’t be as boring as I thought.
The Boston Globe is reporting that Derek Lowe has received 2 offers from teams, one of which is the Phillies. If true, this would be a huge off-season development. I have stated several times that Lowe, who I wanted badly when he signed with the Dodgers, would be the one player I would overpay for this off-season because he is a perfect pitcher for our park, is durable, can be dominant, and has loads of post-season pitching experience.
I think most of us, including myself, assumed that the rumors of the Phillies talking with A.J. Burnett and Lowe was just posturing on their part to help with the Jamie Moyer negotiations. However, making an actual offer provides a completely different story. Perhaps the Phillies declined arbitration to Burrell and Moyer because they are hoping to use that money to sign Lowe.
Lowe has posted ERA’s of 3.24, 3.88, 3.63 and 3.61 in his last four years in the National League. He is 35, but sinkerball pitchers are known to last longer than normal pitchers. Putting Lowe in the rotation would give us one of the deepest in the league with Hamels, Lowe, Myers, Blanton and Happ.
I wouldn’t expect any movement on this anytime soon, as I’m sure Lowe will wait to see where CC Sabathia and maybe Burnett land before he signs, but it’s a good sign to see that the Phillies might still look to make a big move this off-season after all.
Update: Ken Rosenthal is reporting this same story, saying
The Phillies can’t figure out why free-agent left-hander Jamie Moyer is proving so difficult to re-sign. Hence, they’re exploring other options — most notably, free-agent right-hander Derek Lowe.
The only way the Phillies would sign Lowe is if they lost Moyer. They have discussed Lowe with his agent, Scott Boras, “pretty extensively,” according to a source familiar with the club’s intentions. The Boston Globe reported on Thursday that the Phillies already have made Lowe an offer.
The rest of the story can be found here: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8889016/A’s-still-after-Furcal,-but-may-chase-Big-Unit-too
Also interesting, especially for those who wonder why they Phillies aren’t increasing payroll as much as they would like, is that Rosenthal states the 10 Phillies eligible for arbitration will alone increase the Phillies payroll by $25-$35 million.
NICE! I agree that Lowe would be a great addition. Plus he has major backend bullpen experience and the ability to effectively pitch on short-rest (read major playoff insurance) if those needs ever arise. God forbid if Hamels ever gets hurt, Lowe has proven that he can be a front-line playoff starter.
So if we sign Lowe what are you thoughts of the Phils trying to move Myers (highly paid pitcher) for a solid outfielder (Dye or Mags?) Given the Sox just dumped Vazquez they might be in the market for a #2/3 starter….
Someone speculated this as a possibility on MLBTradeRumors and I found it interesting…..
if you can’t beat ‘em….
Completely agree Pete. Would overpay for him. His ability to start on short rest in the playoffs and solid consistent performance. If the Phils are going to invest in a big FA I want it to be a pitcher and Lowe is the guy I like the most. (not considering Sabathia) We’ll have to see how it plays out but it’s good to see them trying.
I’m thinking he’ll sign sometime later this month…Christmas or Hanukkah or whatever other holiday present????
I would prefer Meyers. It’s always harder to get pitching than outfielders.
Just my opinion, but Lowe is getting long in tooth, occasionally gets hammered (while on the mound) and his demeanor against Phils in playoffs looked a little faint-hearted (surprisingly). Yeah, he’s a sinkerballer, has a winning (though not dominating) legacy, but his better days have sunk into history’s pages. Wouldn’t pay a fortune for him, which apparently is what it’ll take. Solid #3 starter (on a strong staff), would certainly help; not a special one.
On the other hand, Satchel Paige at age 65 hurled 3 scoreless innings for KC vs. Boston on 9/25/65 … maybe I’m underestimating Lowe.
jjg- Agree that we’d probably have to over pay and he is a solid #3 starter. Despite that I still like him in our situation. I think he’s an upgrade over Moyer who was and could be our #3. I think he’s better than Meyers overall. (depending on which Meyers shows up) He may end up costing too much if some team goes crazy but I would at least pursue it. I wouldn’t give him the 18 mil a year that Boras mentioned but I would consider somewhere north of 10 mil per year for 3 maybe 4 years.
Who is Meyers?
bball Agree he’s kinda like an older Myers with a more proven gyroscope. A rubber arm, a winner more often than not. Does he want to enter an unfamiliar Boston-like cauldron such as Philadelphia presents? Or is he using Phils to drive up price for bigger bid from Sox, Yanks or elsewhere? I guess we’ll know soon enough.
Pleased to see the Phils are seriously talking with Lowe. Maybe this will light a fire under Moyer. (No idea why it’s taking so long to come to an agreement with him) If I had to choose, I’d rather over commit to or over pay for Lowe instead of Moyer.
I really think Lowe would be a good way to go because he could be a bridge for a couple years until some of our young arms are ready for the big leagues (They had better be ready for the bigs at some point and not turn out to be pie-in-the-sky, overvalued, marginal talents.) Also, 2009 is the last year of Myers’ contract, so it may prove valuable to have Lowe around should we part ways with Myers after this season. (If we plan on keeping Hamels, we may not have the money to also keep Myers.)
The thing is that we can’t be so sure that Moyer will give us a repeat of 2008 and, truth be told, we have no idea which Brett Myers we will get in 2009 either. Lowe could bring a welcome level of stability to our rotation for a few years.
Any possibility to the Phils signing both Lowe AND Moyer to deals? I guess this would certainly depend on the $$ they have to shell out to get Lowe on the payroll. In comparison to other pitcher (starter/RH/mid-thirties) what is the value of Lowe? $12mil? $15mil? $18mil?
Still haven’t heard a peep regarding any type of negotiations with Burrell from the Phils or elsewhere. Anybody have news on that front?
a couple of teams are now interested in Burrell now that they don’t have to forfeit draft picks to sign him. The Mariners, Giants and Angels all have some level of interest.
My guess is he lands with the Mariners.
Ya knew that was coming Pete. Its a double edged sword. If we were to offer him arb he would be an overpaid Phillie. Since we didn’t he is more likely than not to sign elsewhere. I don’t think he will get an offer higher than $12mil, which could be easily matched by the Phils and we can cash in on that “hometown discount” everyone seems to be clamoring about.
T.O. -
Yeah, they couldnt really win. Either overpay or look like they made a stupid move.
more on Lowe from a Keith Law chat….
Carl (philly): Reports out of Boston and Philly have the Phils making an offer to D Lowe. Any chance he could land there?
I see that the Braves just made a trade to get Javier Vazquez from the White Sox. Vazquez has pitched 200+ innings in 8 of the last 9 seasons (in 2004 he pitched 198 innings). He’s got Freddy Garcia written all over him, IMO.
The Braves have a lot of concerns with their starters. Glavine, Smoltz, and Hudson (who is not expectd back until late in the season) have all had surgery. Also, they were actually trying to re-sign Mike Hampton until he signed with the Astros.
It feels good that this is not us for a change.
i pity the Braves, once Smoltz and Glavine finally retire (1-2yrs) they will have almost no pitching at all; Jojo Reyes?? Well they dominated the NL East for a decade plus so its sucking time. Time to starting farming guys.
jkay-
well jurrjens doesnt scare me. AJ Burnett is a red flag for any team (big money + injuries?) but let em break the bank for him. vasquez and hudson LOOK solid, but putting your hopes on a rookie pitcher? other than eddison volq-zis-name i dunno any who have even had major success early; at best 2yrs. thats the best case scenario uh. i’d be worried if i were them. good thing they kept their young hitters.
might be right bout hanson tho; any one with moving 95 plus has more than a decent chance. its still a longshot.
about Amaro: am impressed he is this sharp. dunno if we might land Lowe. championship teams always make the mistake of being too complacent after winning and try to preserve everything intact (if it ain’t broke don’t fix it) and pass on the gamble to improve. glad to see he’s not falling into that mentality. phillies did not play their best baseball thru the playoffs, which is scary. but then neither did boston or tampa.
@Pete: how bout ur next post be on the Mets! lol. apart from being hated, i can’t figure out for the life of me how they sucked sooo bad even when Santana was lighting it up? Is their talent really overrated? its hard to figure out; Beltran, Reyes, Delgado, perennial MVP candidate Wright? the phillies overcame their pitching problems in 2007, why cudnt ’08 Mets do it?
The more I think about it, this is most likely nothing more than an attempt to apply pressure on Moyer. Check out this quote from Amaro:
“It’s been a little long, it’s been a little difficult to get things done with Jamie,” Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said today. “But again our goal remains the same. It’s add pitching. We’re hopeful that Jamie can be with us. That said, we have explored a variety of different ways to add pitching, especially starting pitching. And Jamie is not the only priority. So we’ve kept our options open as far as starting pitching is concerned.”
Historically, the Phllies do not pursue players in the open. On the contrary, everything is usually hush hush and covered with layers of obfuscation. They are way too far out in front on this for it to be anything but a red herring. I mean who is this “second team” that has also made an offer to Lowe and why are they remaining in the background?
While I am sure that they have “contacted” the agents of several pitchers, I’ll believe it’s of substance when I see one of them wearing Phillies’ pinstripes at a press conference.
It seems as though games are being played on both sides here. This is what Moyers agent Jim Bronner had to say:
“I think Jamie definitely has interest in coming back to Philadelphia,” Bronner said. “He also has some interest in some other places. The Phillies certainly made it easier for other clubs to want him by not offering him arbitration.”
Its almost like 2 sixteen year olds at the junior prom, dancing with other boys/girls to make their boyfriend/girlfriend jealous. I wish the Phils and Moyer would just sit down, settle their differences and get ready for another championship run. The sooner they lock down Moyer, the sooner they will know how much $$ they have to get serious about signing a free agent, SP or LF.
a note on Jason Donald from Rosenthal:
“Phillies minor-league shortstop Jason Donald is drawing significant trade interest after posting an .889 OPS at Class AA last season and putting up big numbers in the Arizona Fall League. Donald, 24, is backed up behind Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins and second baseman Chase Utley, but the Phillies might need Donald to open the season at second with Utley coming off surgery on his right hip.”
Who would be a valuable trade option for Donald? I was hoping this kid would complete our infield in another 1-2 years at 3B. Who is available that is worth giving up our top infield prospect and possibly best hitting prospect overall? I can’t recall really any good prospects being given up in recent years that turned out to be superstars. I know Gavin Floyd had a good season last year, but will he continue the trend?
Point being that this rumor goes against the Phils typical mentality of keeping talent within and bringing it up to the big leagues when ready. I am sure others are drooling over this kid, but will Amaro squash that desire?
J Dubbz….Agreed. This can be about nothing other than money for Moyer, and that is disappointing. (I realize that it could be that he is looking for the security of a multi-year deal but, in essence, that equates to money as well.)
I get that it’s all about the money for most, if not all, players (especially when they specifically claim it is not). I really can understand it in many cases—a guy like Howard who put up a ROY and an MVP season while making peanuts or a guy like Burrell who is looking at his last shot at a multi-year, big money contract—-but in Moyer’s case I had hoped that he was past chasing a buck.
Is there a point where baseball has more meaning than just money? A guy like Moyer who has been in major league baseball for 20+ years has to be pretty well off, right? Would he turn down say a $10mil deal to stay with the Phils for $8mil b/c its his hometown, loves the fans and teammates, etc? Or is that just me being too much of a Phils fan and stuck in fantasy land?
JDubbz-
Floyd is the only prospect I can remember trading recently that has amounted to anything. Though I imagine Adrian Cardenas will at least be an everyday player someday.
On Donald, I would be open to trading him only for an impact arm or bat that we’d have for 3+ years. I believe he will be a solid MLB player, like a Victorino or Rowand. Not a superstar, but someone you want on your team.
On Moyer -
I believe this is about a multi-year deal. I read a quote from his agent or maybe just a writer saying that Moyer wanted to pitch past 2009. So my guess is the Phillies would sign him to a 2-year deal, but only for significantly less per year. That’s probably the hold up. Also, instances where it isn’t about the money are few and far between. $2 million dollars, is still $2 million dollars. There’s very little I wouldn’t do for $2 million dollars. Even play for the Mets.
If Amaro is looking to make a trade then Jason Donald is the right guy to deal. I’m just basing this off of what I’ve read about him. It seems that he would be a good middle IF but if moved to 3B or corner OF his power numbers would be just average. I believe I read a scout projected him as a good average hitter with 20 hr power. He’s already 24 and will be in his late 20′s by the time Jimmy’s contract is up. I think his best value to the phils is in a trade.
There is no way I’d pass up a few mil as an athlete. As a fan I like to think that athletes care more about winning. But when I put myself in his shoes I would do the same thing
I don’t know how long Minaya will be running the Mets but while he’s there you’ve got a shot, Pete. Better let him know you’re available ASAP!
OK, back to Derek Lowe.
On the reassuring side, Rob Neyer had a column a couple days ago where he went through who would be the better choice between Burnett and Lowe. I’ll give you the upshot:
“This is a tough one. Year in, year out, Lowe’s performance trumps Burnett’s. But Lowe is significantly older, and his performance wouldn’t look quite as impressive if he had spent these past four years in the American League, like Burnett has. As always, the devil is in the details; regardless of your projections, you’d rather sign Burnett for one year than Lowe for 10 years. But if I could sign just one of them for, say, five years, I would sign Lowe because I think I know what I’d be getting for most of those five years. With Burnett, I just wouldn’t know. ”
On the downside, here is Jayson Stark’s take on our chances of actually getting Lowe:
“Haven’t gotten a confirmation of the Phillies’ reported offer to Derek Lowe. But agents report the Phillies have been reluctant to go beyond three years on any pitcher they’ve talked about this winter — a holdover from the Pat Gillick edict. And while they might bend that for someone, it isn’t likely to be for a pitcher who turns 36 in June. Also, don’t forget that during the NLCS, Lowe made it clear he wasn’t the president of the Citizens Bank Park Fan Club. “
I don’t know, the Phillies were pretty open about getting Jim Thome, who was the last big name free agent they brought in. After winning a World Series, Moyer is probably trying to get as much money as possible before he retires. He has a ring now. I would love to see Lowe come to Philly. Moyer, while he has decent numbers, is only a 6 inning starter anymore. When he runs out of gas, he is DONE. Charlie did a better job managing him this year, and getting him when he was done, unlike the previous year where Moyer would be great for 5 or 6 then go out and get hammered.