Last night Jon Heyman of CNNSI reported that the Phillies have joined the race for Toronto pitcher Roy Halladay. Today, FoxSports Ken Rosenthal said that the Phillies and Angels “lead” the race for Halladay, and that the Phillies even have an offer out there .
These are two of the most respected baseball writers in the country. Where there’s smoke…
A couple things to discuss here before we get all giddy…
1. Who would we give up?
Rosenthal said that the Phillies offer centers around J.A. Happ and Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown. The offer I proposed yesterday on the blog was Happ, Taylor, d’Arnaud and Cosart. If we can get Halladay and Lee while hanging on to Drabek and Brown, that would be a little ridiculous. I would have to think the Jays would prefer Brown to Taylor though. I would do my proposed deal though. Maybe subbing out d’Arnaud for Gose.
2. How would we afford it?
The Phillies payroll is at about $140 million. This was what it was last year (roughly) as well, and the team barely broke even. They can’t go much higher. (If you are wondering why other teams can go higher, check their ticket prices).
So – to absorb Halladay’s $15 million salary, we would have to move some players. First option is Joe Blanton, who stands to make about $7 million this year. However, moving Blanton and Happ would leave us with Kendrick, Moyer and perhaps Drew Carpenter as our 4th and 5th starters. Drabek isn’t ready and shouldn’t be pushed.
Who else could we trade? No one is taking Lidge and his $11.5 million. Anyone want the $6.5 million Jamie Moyer? I didn’t think so. Would we trade Jayson Werth ($7 million) and bring up Michael Taylor?
Needless to say, we would like have to make another move to get Halladay, which makes it twice as likely it’s not going to happen.
3. Would you do it?
So – if we had to give up Blanton, Happ, Brown, d’Arnaud and Cosart, would you make the move? Obviously we would get something back for Blanton, and it’s possible we would sign a very low level starter to compete in the back-end of the rotation, but basically that is what we would be doing.
Personally? I would do it. We still have depth in our farm system, and we can reload it quickly if we put the proper funds into it. Halladay would make us the odds-on favorite to win the NL again, and a Halladay/Lee 1-2 punch might make us the favorite to win it all.
Yes, go big or go home. This team is built to win right now.
What about the point made that any Halladay would want an extension in place before he approved a trade anywhere? Also would we want to extend/resign both Lee and Halladay? Could they even afford to?
Was thinking about that Dannie, and there are 2 things Jayson Start said that were interesting to me.
1. The Phillies are allegedly Halladay’s first choice
2. “So unless the Blue Jays back off, a more likely scenario involves the Phillies chasing Halladay as a free agent next winter if they can’t re-sign Lee.”
You wonder if they are thinking that they can just let him be, and then sign him next year, only giving up draft picks.
Either way, it seems like they may be considering opening the checkbook for him.
However, lots of the usual suspects with bigger checkbooks are thinking the same thing…
Also, I’d rather just extend Lee this season if we don’t trade for Roy instead of missing out on both guys past 2010.
FYI – Jayson Stark just said we are looking “hard” at Smoltz as a back of the bullpen option. Which he would be fine with.
-If we could have both Halladay and Lee beyond this season… my head might explode and/or the world might end… or the Phillies might have to change their name (to the Yankees.) So my guess is hat this is not a viable option. Maybe it could be if we traded away Howard?
-I’d rather have Lee locked up than Lee/Halladay for only one year. Having both increases WS victory odds from maybe 20%->35%, but I’d like to think they can be very good for 5+ years goiong forward.
-I really doubt the Phils will have the funds to win Halladay in the open market.
I think you have to do it if you give up only Happ, Taylor and a few lower level prospects. I don’t see how you can’t do it. Look at Hamels. It is so hard to predict how a pitcher like Happ will do after the book is out on him. In pitching – if the deal makes sense – you get the known quantity over the potential.
If they are able to extend Lee and Halliday, Blanton is gone. To control salary further out, then perhaps the odd person out in a year or two is Hamels. Assume Werth will get major dough after next year so is gone. He is a top 10 outfielder (5 tool) in the NAtional league right now and seems to be getting better. I see him signing for 15 mill per somewhere when he is a FA. So you have Drabek and Brown as lower priced players. After 2010 you have shed- Werth Blanton, Moyer, and Hamels. After 2011 you have shed Ibanez as well. Seems like they can extend both and keep a dominant core in place.
Feliz signed with the Astros. 1 year, $3 million per FoxSports.
Stark is saying $4.5 for Feliz. Don’t know who is right.
As much as I would love to see the Phillies sign Halladay, I don’t want to see them give up the farm! We’ve already given up 4 of our top 10 prospect to get Lee, lets not unload many more! I’d rather wait until next year and see what happens in FA. I think we should make sure they lock up Lee NOW and hope for Halladay next year. We will be fine for another year of Blanton and Happ.
Stark is saying $4.5 for Feliz. Don’t know who is right.>>
Neither do I, but I heard 4.5 on XM, which would make sense. Accepting a 40% pay cut this early would be bad busiess sense. Ain’t nobody in their right mind that anxious to play in Houston.
No matter what he gets paid, Pedro was the subject of the line of the year today.I really enjoy Kevin Kennedy’s work on XM, but when asked about Feliz, he said he could hit 25 dingers in that park. I’ll believe it when I see it. If he bombs 25, Ruben probably goofed. All I hear is what a bandbox CBP is, and then a credible MLB observer makes a comment like that.
I’ll consider this a chance to make a final (for now) comment on Halladay. I’ve monitored the situation as closely as an outsider can this week, and felt all along that Ruben is aggresssive, and with 40 some years of experience as a fan, player and administrator with this club, he gets it. Paul Owens got it, Dallas Green gets it, Pat Gillick gets it. Examine every option. I believe he’s doing that, and the Phils are an excellent trading partner. Where it goes from here, I trust Ruben and accept the outcome. I guarantee you if we get Roy, the price will be quite debatable on multiple fronts. Players dealt, effect of the length of Roy’s stay as determined by the trade. You know it don’t come easy. I might add that I’m not a Halladay fanatic. My feeling during this stuff last summer was it was overplayed. I wanted Ruben to concentrate on the pen. Lidge worried me as early as the May series in the Bronx. And besides, its not impossible that we got a better pitcher as it turned out, but both would be nice.
I’ll believe Smoltz is a Phil when i see it.
11:36pm: One baseball source tells Tom Verducci of SI.com that the Phillies have been “very aggressive” in their efforts to obtain Halladay. Apparently the Phils are trying to find the players the Blue Jays want, even if that means looking on other teams.
From the CSN piece it sounds like if they get Halladay they will extend him (and probably not Lee.) The additional cost of prospects is worth it if they know they won’t be able to extend Lee because they need at least one of them after this year and a pitcher of that caliber will be out of their range in the open market. And its hard to put a price tag on having Lee and Halladay together- even for just one season.
That said, if the can extend Lee, I’d prefer to do that over trading for Halladay and losing Lee next year. Not an easy decision either way. Of course the ideal would be to have both long term, but that is a bit of a pipe dream IMO.
I recommend everyone read the linked article in Ken Bland’s post (#12) – really good stuff.
On the subject of a number 5 starter…
For several weeks, it seemed a foregone conclusion that the Brewer were going to sign Mark Mulder. I heard nothing about any other club being interested.
This morning…
Veteran pitcher Mark Mulder, attempting yet another comeback, is drawing some interest from the Royals in their quest to find a left-hander for their rotation. Mulder, 32, hasn’t pitched a full season since 2005. “We’ll go through the process,” Moore said, “and I’m sure it will be a low-base, incentive-type deal predicated on him making the team.” — KC Star
I’m not jumping up and down for this. On the one hand, I think the world of Doug Melvin (Brewer GM), and if he was interested, that’s good enough for me. On the other hand, this has gone on for weeks, and nothing has been finalized.
All I can tell you is that Mulder brings winning experience to the table, and despite fellow comebacker Ben Sheets allegedly asking 12 mil per, more than incentives for Mulder seems truly absurd.
I would think the Phils would at least explore it. A decent degree of similarities to Pedro and Smoltz, but younger and less expensive.
Can’t let the failed comeback of Kris Benson color your thinking forever.
I can’t fathom a cart being more ahead of a horse with this statement, but on the speculation of who’d be preferable to extend, I think the Phils really want to keep Cole Hamels for a long, long time. Halladay offers a righty lefty set. I would guess advantage Halladay in that sense over Lee.
Personally, I’ll pass on guessing if the club could afford both. I go with what’s in front of me. What’s in front of me is that the Phils will plead poverty to drive the price down, and lower expectations of this readership on Recliner and the rest of the fan base. I didn’t coin the phrase where there’s a will there’s a way. I just live by it.
I did find it interesting to read that any trade for Halladay would likely include a contract extension. Big picture, they are in good shape if they could have either Lee or Halladay long term. Overall you would think it would cost less money (and no add’l prospects) to extend Lee, but we really don’t know how amenable Lee is to signing right now. If they know Lee plans to hit the open market, it makes even more sense to go after Halladay- both for this year and moving forward.
Also, if they lose Lee in FA next year, I assume they get two #1′s to help restock their farm system. So if you can’t get both long term your possibilities are:
1. Lee extender (best option IMO.) Who knows if Lee will agree to an extension.
2. Halladay and Lee for 1 year and Halladay long term. Loose Happ and some good prospects to get Halladay but get back two #1′s as compensation to losing Lee.
3. Lee for one year and then try and get someone next year in FA (and 2 #’s for losing Lee)
4. Lee and Halladay long term… and probably have to give up some other players to free up salary. Great scenario, but the least likely to happen.
loose->lose
I think they can definitely sign both long-term. Look at the payroll analysis. The only people under contract for 2012 are Utley and Polanco. We can essentially start from scratch and if we choose to build around Lee/Halladay and let Howard walk, among others, than they have that option.
They just need to pay them less in 2011, and back load the deals.
That would be great. It would mean a philosophical change from a hitting team to a pitching (Braves style) team- which I’m behind 100%.
When you start with Utley and his huge production at 2nd base, its comparatively easy to build a solid offensive line-up. But its much harder to find a core of starters like Halladay/Lee/Hamels. Having those 3 guys bodes well for any playoff series (assuming you can get to the playoffs.) Add in Drabek, and you have a Braves type staff that would also eat up innings.
As I posted before, imagine what you could get for Howard if you moved him after this year to free up 20M. I’m guessing you could quickly restock the farm with that type of move.
If you can get him for the package discussed, you have to do it. I like Happ but to go into the year with Halladay, Lee and Hamels would make the phils the odds on favorites. Then try to extend either Lee or Halladay. If we hold on to Drabek that would still allow us to go into 2011 with two top of the rotation starters and Drabek. If they can get a deal done for both, this team would be in the hunt for years to come.
Stormin, as I posted above, it sounds like any deal for Halladay would include a contract extension.
tk, I’m with you. The thought of trading Howard should be looked at, in my opinion. It’s been stated before that we do not have a great 3rd baseman in the farm system, so that could be addressed in the trade. It’s also a lot easier to get a power hitting firstbaseman than pitching. Lets DREAM and wish that we can sign both Lee and Halladay to extensions!!
Yes, but hold onto Howard fr this year…
I would have a little trepidation trying to build around a pair of 33 year old aces long term.
I think I’d rather try to find any conceivable way to sign them to 3 year extensions (moving werth, victorino, blanton, etc) and going all out for the next 4 years and keeping howard.
Get him for next year, see how Taylor/Brown progress (depending on which one you keep), and go for the series. You can figure out how you’re going to go from there going forward. Worst case scenario you’ve traded Taylor + Happ + Marson/Donald/Knapp for 4 compensatory picks + 2 world series runs.
DB-
Doubt either would go for 3 year deals, this is their big pay day, particularly Lee.
I doubt they would actually sign both, because they have never given a long term deal to a pitcher, let alone 2 in one year. But it’s an option given the payroll situation.
We (the fans) gotta keep doing our part and going to the games too. Cause this whole plan is based on us selling out virtually every game the next 2-3 years.
Cross another reliever off the list… JJ Putz signs with the White Sox for 1 year, $3 mill, with $3.5 million in incentives.
Also, if you were wondering why Beltre didn’t get signed. His initial asking price was reportedly 5 years, $65 million. Might be the most out-of-whack number I’ve seen all offseason.
They offered Beltre arb. Once that happened he was a virtual lock to go back to seattle.
DB-
Everything I’ve read has him going to the Red Sox.
Mariners just signed Figgins for 3B. They could move him to 2B I guess.
move Figgins, not Beltre
Here’s a unique candidate for the 20 greatest seasons in Phillies history. Tis the story of Buzz Arlett. He had some good offensive numbers in 1931. Hardly all time great material, but in the course of his own career, certainly from one standpont, his greatest season ever.
<< After more than a decade in the minors, Arlett’s contract was purchased by the Philadelphia Phillies in 1931. In his only campaign in the majors, he set a record for slugging (.538), batting average (.313), homers (18) and total bases (225) for a one-year player; he also holds the NL records for doubles (26) and hits (131) by a one-year player.
In 1932, Philadelphia sold Arlett’s contract to the Orioles in the International League.
Playing for the Orioles in 1932, Arlett twice hit four home runs in a single game. On June 2, 1932, he hit home runs in consecutive at bats against the team from Reading, PA. He repeated the feat on July 4, 1932, again against Reading, hitting a grand slam batting right-handed and three more home runs batting left-handed. He led the league that year with 54 home runs and 144 runs batted in. He led the league again in 1933 with 39 home runs. Arlett’s record of 54 home runs in 1932 is the second-highest annual total in International League history, and through the 2003 season no International League batter has equalled or surpassed Arlett’s 54 home runs.
In 1934, Arlett moved to the Minneapolis Millers of the American Association. He hit 41 home runs that year with 132 runs batted in and earned a .319 batting average. He raised his batting average to .360 in 1935, hitting 25 home runs and driving in 101 runs. Arlett retired after the 1937 season.
In his career as a minor-league player, Arlett earned a .341 batting average and a .604 slugging percentage. His career totals of 432 home runs and 1786 runs batted in both rank second among all minor-league players. Arlett retired with a 108-93 record and a 3.42 ERA as a minor-league pitcher.
In 1984, SABR voted Arlett the most outstanding player in the history of minor-league baseball.>>
Turns out the reason the Phils didn’t keep him was he was considered a poor defensive player. Pretty fascinating how he was such a 1 hit wonder. Timing is everything in this life. If they had a designated hitter back then, old Buzz might have been at least a candidate for the HOF, or certainly better known. I don’t know exactly which 20 seasons were the greatest in Phils history, but I do know which one was the greatest in Arlett’s. And at the same time, the way he pounded the ball in all those years in the minors, it was ironically one of his worse.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10513552/Phillies,-Jays-should-focus-on-multi-team-deal
Must read
WOW – That never crossed my mind. Maybe because of what Lee did for us already, I think I would prefer Lee. I guess if talks didn’t go well with Lee’s agent, that could push things towards Halladay. I just hope we don’t strip the farm during all of this, and just hope we get better!!
KB -
Saw that- I’ll write a post on it today. Talk about exploring every option!
Also, Clay Condrey was non-tendered. Surprising.
2 non-tendered players to keep an eye on: Chein Ming Wang and Mike MacDougal.
Wang is interesting. I suspect the first club on his list is LA because of Torre. I suspect it doesn’t really matter who signs him because it’s probably a 1 year deal, and his first year after major arm surgery. It’s 2011 that he might be a superb addition for. That is a lot of blind guesswork on my part.
Mike MacDougal is a positive in a lot of ways, good back up to Lidge, probably sick of losng with the curly W’s. Kinda like a less expensive Fernando Rodney. Walks a lot of hitters.
Condrey. Whoa, doctor. That was more han surprising. It makes me believe that Ruben feels the likes of Bastardo/Mathieson are part of the 2010 picture. I thik Clay will land a job as quickly as this market allows, or have a fair amount of offers.
Kenny Rosenthal, in my opinion, is not a sensationalist. It’s easy to read that and think there’s a lot of wild thinking in there. Everything he says is logical, and drawing the Mariners in as a Halladay player is also, although it’d take a good sales pitch to get him to waive the NTC for a team that winning is just conjectural about.
FIRED UP about the Birds stomping the NY football Giants tonight.
so my friend’s dad is at the giant’s game sitting next to a sports agent who said the phils traded for halladay–no details on the terms. not a reliable source by any means, but thought i’d pass it along
Here’s some text on a 30 year old pitcher that might command some attention on the open market. Colby Lewis, once a bright prospect for the Rangers wants to return to MLB after a couple excellent years in Japan. He’s 30, well recovered from shoulder surgery, and might show preference to the NL since he’s a good hitter. California kid, so there may be a preference there, but miht fit nicely as a back of the rotation fill.
<<Nikkan Sports and others are reporting that Hiroshima Carp ace Colby Lewis has turned down the team’s offer and will return to MLB for 2010. Lewis cited family health problems as his decision to leave the Carp.
Lewis leaves big shoes for Hiroshima to fill. He stepped in to the ace role that Hiroki Kuroda vacated, and in some ways outperformed the current Dodger. In 54 NPB games, Lewis went 26-17 with a 2.83 era, and led the Central League in strikeouts in each of the last two seasons. More impressive was his command of the strike zone, which was not his strength at the MLB level. In Japan, Lewis only walked 46 over 354.1 innings pitched. Somewhat weirdly however, he did hit 14 batters in 2009.>>
more must read material, 25 minutes old. MLB traderumors.com
CSN’s Jim Salisbury reports today that the Phillies are “actively talking” about a contract extension with Roy Halladay‘s agent, according to two baseball sources. One of those sources told Salisbury Doc is likely to take a physical with the Phillies this week. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Andy Martino adds that Halladay and his agent have checked into a Philadelphia-area hotel.
What’s more, Salisbury writes of “indications that pitcher Cliff Lee could be traded.” SI’s Jon Heyman wrote today that Lee would take no discount to sign an extension. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports write that “a three-team blockbuster that would send Halladay to the Phillies and Lee to another club is under discussion.” They add that the Mariners have “contemplated dealing for Lee in recent days,” but a straight Phillies-Jays trade is also possible. The writers say these complex talks involve the Phils receiving money to put toward Halladay’s $15.75MM salary next year.
Questions: would Halladay command a C.C. Sabathia contract, even though he’ll be 33 in May? And which teams could match up for Lee aside from the Mariners? The Angels, Dodgers, Brewers, Rangers, Rays, and Red Sox were linked to Lee in July trade talks, but things have changed since then.
I wanted to get that post up on Doc asap in case this site is where anyone might have heard the latest first.
Still early on these comments, but what the heck.
If Cliff Lee is outtahere, it will go down as a memorable stop. His name, like Hamels a year ago, often found its way into the same sentence as Steve Carlton. The parallels between Lee and Lefty never would share one common denominator, Carlton, unhappy with St. Louis’s pay did not have free agency available when he came here and won 27 in 72.
Rest assured, Carlton might never have anchored the 80 rotation. Such are the times we live in. Someone is going to get one heckuva competitor.
We have to wait until the dust settles to see the rotation, but at best, we will have only upgraded one of 5 spots if Cliff is out.
Kenny Rosenthal’s star shines brightly today. Obviously, that boy can hunch, and I can appreciate the time he put into putting together that line of thinking.
Wow, I guess having the dream year of Halladay/Lee/Hamels is not in the cards. Wonder if this will end up costing the Phils more or less than had they made a move for Halladay in the first place?
It will require some heavy lifting to pull a move like this off.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/14/phillies.halladay.lee/index.html
Lee to M’s… Halladay to Phils, details to follow.
Nice work, tk76.
I sure hope SI.com isn’t jumping the gun at all.
Lackey appears iminent to Boston for 17 mil for 5 years.
Pete is feverishly writing a post now.
If we gave up Cliff Lee, and no prospects, but Seattle supplied them, that would be unreal. I doubt that happened. We have to have given u something. Halladay multi year versus Cliff for one has to have cost us something.
If they manage to keep Happ, Taylor, Brown and Drabek it would be a small miracle.
Halladay/Happ/Drabek probably yields more regular season success. While Haladay/Lee would yield pennants- but was not an option.
new post is up!