Yesterday, the story was about the Phillies going “hard” after Chone Figgins to replace Pedro Feliz at 3B.
Today’s rumor du jour? We’ve contacted Figgins, but he is at least 4th on our list. The Inquirer is reporting that Amaro’s top-3 choices to replace Pedro Feliz are, in no particular order, Mark DeRosa, Adrian Beltre and Placido Polanco.
All are decent choices, though none carry the excitement (or paycheck) of Figgins. DeRosa is safest choice offensively, but you lose something on defense with him. Beltre is by far the best defender and the youngest of the three and has great offensive upside, but he is a huge injury risk. Polanco is a professional hitter, but has declined relatively sharply each of the last two years, and has never played 3B full time.
In my 3rd base post, I had DeRosa ranked the highest of the 3 and Polanco the lowest. However, the more I think about it, the less I’d really like to downgrade on defense, so Beltre and DeRosa are probably even for me in this group (with the assumption that Beltre will demand more money).
{ 26 comments… read them below or add one }
A shame that Phils’ dropped good soldier, dependable fielder Feliz. Same number of HRs as Howard in WS, and at a more crucial time; unfortunately, same batting avg. as “Big Piece” (of a brisk breeze) too. 82 RBIs from 7 slot – just 11 less than both (3 & 5 hitters) Utley & Ibanez. Relatively cheap too. Had they won, probably wouldn’t have been sacrified by Amaro.
Now that initial jockeying is complete with the conclusion of the meetings, we at least have an idea of who has been discussed, often setting us up to believe one things wil happen when another does. And time to contemplate who we want, or don’t want.
These are my conclusions as we now head toward the date where clubs might actually talk to free agents.
- Adrian Beltre will not be a Phillie. He’s too expensive. I think the best deal, by far and away mind you, is to get Kevin Kouzmanff from the Padres who is inexpensive, talented and young. Not many will play 158 lke Feliz last year, and that’s not this guy’s history, but Cole Hamels used to have injuries all the time, too.
- The lack of mention even along the lines of rumors of any interest in Pedro Feliz by anyone surprised me.
- Roy Halladay is absolutely positively gone from the Jays. I am so convinced of it that it actually mght not happen. After politics, and based on need and resources, whether we want to read about it or night, the very limited field of clubs it makes any sense at all for include the Phillies, so it’s not a dead subject.
- The Phils are way more likely to acquire bullpen help from the trade route than free agency. Quality free agents are going where they are da man, not where they have to compete with Lidge and Madson. Its nice the Phils want a safety net, but a free agent has too much choice.
-
While DeRosa has peppery bat and gung-ho spirit, last Penn Quaker Phillie was Doug Glanville, a true gentleman and true run-of-the-mill CF. (Monty can carry red & blue flag.) We don’t need a makeshift third sacker (defense there, too important). Placido Duh-mingles with too much chow and time is tapping on his shoulder; nice player along the way though. Can’t speak to efficacy of present-day Beltre option, though he’s been a big name for awhile.
you aren’t seeing a lot of interest (yet) in Feliz, because there are too many 3B out there, and not enough positions to fill.
despite his RBI numbers this season, Feliz is a pretty awful offensive player. The RBI were more a function of the number of people on base while he was up than anything else. He had a high BA with RISP, but that doesn’t usually translate year after year.
among 154 qualified players in all of baseball this season, Feliz had the 142nd OPS. Among qualified 3B, only Emilio Bonafacio and Jhonny Peralta were lower.
When you look at a more sophisticated performance tool like VORP, Feliz was 21st out of 25 3B with at least 400 PA. He was 133rd of 143 among all players with 500+ PA.
Add to this that 2009 was the 6th straight season his OPS dropped, and it is very likely he would only be worse next year.
I like Feliz. He’s a solid performer, keeps his mouth shut, plays every day, and plays great defense. But there are definitely upgrades available and this was the one spot we could upgrade our line-up.
With the glut of 3B in the MLB, how far-fetched is it to bring Feliz back as a platoon/bench guy? There is no guarantee that he will be a starter somewhere and if he is relegated to a backup, maybe he’d consider Philly as the top option there. He could be an excellent 3b/1B backup, a big improvement over a Wes Helms’ish player.
Pete, “Very likely he would be worse next year” (loose projection, though I acknowledge presented OPS downtrend) & “there are definitely upgrades” (happy supposition, given Phila cauldron environment … one in which Feliz is a proven, if mildly disappointing, factor). “Pretty awful”: I disagree on that characterization; 82 RBIs is 82 RBIs (I seem to recall you having praised his quiet, accumulating performance sometime in back end of season). “The RBI[s] were more a function of the number of people on base while he was up than anything else”… statement holds true for RBI kings throughout history; opportunities presented and redeemed.
I like Pedro too. Will miss his low-keyed approach and strong fielding if he’s not resigned. Was a complementary fit (important factor) for hot-dogging Phillies. Shouldn’t be scapegoated but I guess he has been/will be.
Oh I like the idea of Feliz from the bench as our utility infielder, and toss Bruntlett. But we still need a righty bat and some speed on the bench, neither of which Feliz can provide. By the way nobody has mentioned Jim Thome on the Dodgers. Essentially the Dodgers carried a DH for the entire year for interleague and World Series play, is there any way the Phillies could do something similiar ?
Mike – We did the same as the Dodgers. His name is Matt Stairs.
Could the fact they are looking at less expensive options than Figgins be a good thing? Maybe a reliever will have to be overpayed to come here as Ken stated above. I want an improved bullpen and bench, the 2 things we were worse at this year. Resign Felix, bring in a Uribe or Belliard type and get Valverde, that works for me. Hopefully Dobbs can regain his stroke with more A.B.!s.
I don’t get the lovefest for Feliz. He was a decent player but not someone I’m going to cry over losing. Especially since it looks like we will be upgrading the position. Feliz was a below average hitter and a good but not great defender the past two years. He has a very accurate arm and above average glove but he also commits some errors on routine ground balls. I think I saw at least 4-5 this year alone. Also, he’s 35 and his health is questionable. His back clearly limited him last year and I would argue it did this year as well. It’s unlikely the back injury is going to go away. Backs are tricky injuries.
With all that said, I wouldn’t be upset if we end up with him again next year. However, I would rather have Figgins, Beltre, DeRosa, or Crede (in that order). The only one that is a defensive downgrade is DeRosa.
Because of the money/contract he’ll most likely command, it makes sense that Figgins is lower down on the list of potential 3rd basemen for us. We may need to aim a bit lower because it looks like we might have to put a lot into our bullpen and saving maybe $5 mil or so per year at 3rd would go a long way toward that.
Brad Lidge had surgery to repair the flexor pronator tendon in his pitching arm yesterday and the Phils are hopeful that he will be ready “close to” Opening Day, and J.C. Romero’s recovery from elbow surgery is expected to stretch into at least the first month of the season. Difficult to count on either one of them for next year.
Also, Chan Ho Park is up in the air. We might be able to keep him, but he is still looking to land a starting job with someone. I doubt he’ll get it but you never know.
Drew,
Not saying we should have kept Feliz, but he is a very good defensive player. Checking on fangraphs.com, I found that Feliz had a UZR of 12.5 over the last two seasons, which is good for 25th (5th for 3rd basemen) in all of baseball.
BTW, also over the last two seasons combined, Rollins is 17th in all of baseball with a 15.5 UZR, Werth is 13th with a 19.8 UZR, and Utley is 3rd with a 31 UZR (how has he not won a gold glove?).
bski,
I respect your opinion, it is almost always backed by stats. However, stats don’t mean as much to me when I watch someone play almost every game, which is the case for Feliz. I go by what I actually see. I know his peripheral fielding stats are very good. However, when watching him he comes off as I said earlier. A good but not great defensive player. I would call Rolen back in the day as a great defensive player. He made unbelievable plays weekly. Same with Zimmerman now, that guy is incredible. Feliz doesn’t make those plays. That’s why I consider him good but nothing more. Besides, there’s a reason GM’s sacrifice fielding for hitting at 3rd base. It’s lower on the totem pole of positions where a defensive liability will kill you. It’s great to have a defensive rock at the hot corner but it’s not a necessity for a winning team. I would argue the opposite about SS, 2nd, CF, and C. Nevertheless, my other point was that the free agents are almost all good defensive 3rd basemen. So it’s not even much of a downgrade.
Another thing people are thinking, or at least writing, about is the fact that we have nobody to cover 3rd base in our minor league system. Signing a good player for 3 years or so would give us some time to get someone and develop him. If we give or gave Feliz a one year contract, we’re in the same boat next year. And next year I’m guessing there aren’t as many good free agent 3rd basemen available.
**aren’t not are** in my second paragraph
Drew,
Your points are well taken.
First, although I did state that Feliz is 5th in UZR for 3rd basemen over the past two seasons, I did not mention that there is a considerable gap between 4th and 5th. Here is how they rank: 1. Longoria (33.4), 2. Beltre (26.9), 3. Figgins (24.9), 4. Zimmerman (20.2), then Feliz (12.5), so I’d agree that he’s not in the top tier of 3rd basemen. Just thought it sounded like you were a bit dismissive of his defense is all.
Second, I’d agree that our dearth of 3B prospects might have prompted us to cut ties with Feliz now rather than to pickup his option and then to find ourselves stuck after next year.
Who knows, maybe we really will go after Figgins, who is superior on both sides of the ball, budget be damned, even though it appears that we are really in need to spend on the bullpen.
Drew,
Forgot to mention, “It’s great to have a defensive rock at the hot corner but it’s not a necessity for a winning team. I would argue the opposite about SS, 2nd, CF, and C.”, probably explains the thought process behind all the talk about someone grabbing Uggla and moving him to 3rd.
The Phils are way more likely to acquire bullpen help from the trade route than free agency. Quality free agents are going where they are da man, not where they have to compete with Lidge and Madson. Its nice the Phils want a safety net, but a free agent has too much choice….this is probably very true
Drew,
If by chance you are including me as part of the Feliz lovefest, all I said was I was surprised there wasn’t 1 mention of interest in him from rumor central. Not defensive, just clarifying. Pete raisd excellent points as to why, and I’ll downgrade my take to mildly surprised. The way I look at it, when I read that the Giants and Orioles are interested in an Uggla for third base purposes, it just surprises me that the guy can’t even catch a rumor.
It seems to me today’s idea is of Feliz as a utility player here is not realistic at this point. I still don’t think he’d be anxious to come back as the 3rd baseman for less than what he signed for, but the market will lead us to reality, and that opinion may prove accurate.
Here’s a negative opinion on Polanco if anyone is interested.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/are-phillies-really-considering-placido-polanco/
Someone asked about Joel Pinero the other day. Joe Strauss is the Cardinal beat writer for the St. Louis Post Dispatch. Had a chat today
Joe Strauss: Pineiro is believed to be seeking a deal in the area of 3y/30M. The Cardinals have shown no inclination in becoming involved in that market. I do think it possible they offer him arbitration.
And the subject of Ryan Franklin came up. If the Phils are thinking along the same lines as Strauss suspects the Cards are, we won’t see some of the names bandied about here the last couple days (Valverde, Rodney).
Joe Strauss: It’s a growing concern after his (Franklin’s) difficult September. Expect the Cardinals to acquire an eighth-inning guy this winter who could move into the closer role in a pinch but would not cause an immediate “closer controversy” upon his arrival.
My comment about the Feliz lovefest came from a bunch of sites I read, not just this one. That includes a lot of comments from philly.com. It was not a direct indictment of this blog’s contributors. Although, jjg would be included in the lovefest.
Also, courtesy of bski, Beltre’s UZR is sick! I’d love to get him. However, he’ll probably want to be overpaid because of his last monster contract and his agent is Boras I believe.
One more thing. I’m not worried about the 3rd base situation due to the gluttony of free agents. I’m more concerned with our bullpen and bench. There is no way we get through another season without a major injury to one of our key infielders. We need someone who will be able to step in and do a good job. No one has played more games in the past 3 years then Rollins, Utley, and Howard (not a stat just a guess). With all of them hitting 30 years of age it’s a necessity to get a very good bench player.
There once was a diddler named Drew
Who diddled until he was through
And when it was read
It could only be said
His musings contained some doo-doo
What are you 7 years old?
Hark!
We heard this week that the Orioles are interested in Uggla. Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun suspects that the O’s will opt for a defense-first third baseman instead. Pedro Feliz, Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre all have reputations as strong defenders, but Figgins and Beltre may be too pricey for the Orioles.
So at least Pedro got a runor.
Onto somewhat of an original subject. A would be starting pitcher acquisition. There are starting pitchers (aces) and there are starting pitchers (number 5’s). I’m not sure what the Phils are looking for. They may well not know either. Might depend on when they project Drabek joinng the big club (5 starter at least early on), mght depend on if they are apprehensive about the prospects of Cliff Lee sticking around beyond 2010.
Soooo, I’ll throw out a guy who maybe kinda sorta would be a tweener, Wandy Rodriguez of old friend Ed Wade’s interested in cutting payroll Houston club. Looks like he’ll make about 4 mil next year, has definitely improved year over year in his 3 seasons, walks 1 every 3 innngs. Generally speaking, looks like he’s ready to be a good number 2 guy in a rotation. I don’t see him as a likely trade acquisition because I think Ruben would have to give up a lot to get him, but to whatever degree Houston ha an economic plight might make it at least possible. All in favor, say aye.
No one has played more games in the past 3 years then Rollins, Utley, and Howard (not a stat just a guess). With all of them hitting 30 years of age it’s a necessity to get a very good bench player.>>
Why do I think of Adam Kennedy when I read this.
Eric Bruntlett, Tyler Walker, Andy Tracy, Paul Hoover removed from Phils’ 40-man roster, become free agents. about 1 hour ago from web >>
That was reported by Andy Martino of the Inky earlier this morning. With the subtraction of Bruntlett, Ruben seems to be clearly saying the same thing he said about 3rd base. We can get better bang for our buck, and I believe Bruntlett was overpaid at the ML minimum, or certainly close to it..
As to another utility candidate, Buster Olney said this morning that he thinks Craig Counsell is a possible fit with either the Yanks or BoSox among the 12 unlisted teams that have shown intrest in him. I wonder how he’s attractive to the Yanks. I wonder how interested he’d be in the Phillies given a potential scarcity of at bats, and wonder how the situation would be different in NY. For Counsell to play here, he’s been playing about 130 games a year, and he’d have to be content playing 90-110, injuries aside of course. I would think he’ll find something more attractive.
I can’t wait to see who finds Eric Bruntlett appealing enough to carry on an opening day roster.
More from Buster Olney this morning…
<<The agent for Brandon Lyon expects he get a multi-year deal — and Lyon is open to diffent roles, closer or set-up PhI, LAA a possible fit.>>
What I find initially compelling here is Lyon being open to different roles. He may wind up being da man if Lidge is off again, or the set up guy if Madson replaces Lidge, or an important middle guy, but he’s supposedly open or receptive to versatility. That part of the equation is a plus. That’s called value. At least in part.