With the Phillies off-season being a complete bore so far, I figured I’d start up some Phillies conversation based on some of the fantastically vast and detailed stats available on the internet these days. There are 2 main schools of thought on baseball. The first is that you can learn everything you need to know about a player by looking at his major stats (BA, HR, RBI, OBP%, etc…) and by watching him play everyday to look at hustle, attitude and clutch play. The other school of thought is that baseball is really just a complex mathematical equation and each players’ performance can be measured using new metrics, like VORP (Value over replacement player), Runs Created and Win Shares. I subscribe to parts of both, though I tend to favor the math side, because I do think some players (read: Pedroia, Dustin) get overvalued based on attributes like perceived hustle because they have half-beards and look like they are running “harder” than other players. But I digress…
The first stat I came across, I got from baseballprospectus.com, perhaps the most complex baseball stat site out there. The stat is called “Equivalent Base Running Runs” or “EqBRR.” BP defines the stat like this: “measures the number of runs contributed by a player’s advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table.” So essentially, based on the number of times on player is on-base, where they are on base, and what the situation is, they are expected to score x number of runs. This stat shows how much better or worse they did than the average player. Below you will find the Phillies starters and promenant bench players ranked from best to worst. The number is how many more or less runs they scored that they should have and the number in parentheses is their MLB rank (out of 393 players).
Best Phillies Baserunners
- Jimmy Rollins, 9.12 (4th)
- Shane Victorino, 7.37 (9th)
- Jayson Werth, 5.15 (14th)
- Eric Bruntlett, 3.10 (37th)
- Carlos Ruiz, 1.91 (75th)
- Chase Utley, 1.19 (97th)
- Geoff Jenkins, -0.36 (210th)
- Pedro Feliz, -0.76 (239th)
- Pat Burrell, -1.18 (273rd)
- Chris Coste, -2.76 (352nd)
- Greg Dobbs, -3.16 (364th)
- Ryan Howard, -3.57 (372nd)
- Rollins is an elite baserunner and added to his gold glove defense, these are two attributes that he brings to the team that you won’t be able to see in many boxscores. He was 6th in all of baseball in EqBRR in 2007.
- The Phillies have 3 of the top 14 baserunners in baseball in their starting line-up. This certainly helps pad Ryan Howard’s RBI total.
- Chase Utley, while an above average baserunner, seems to be slightly overrated by fans in this regard. This is what I was talking about before when a player can sometimes be catergorized as a “hustler” because they contort their face and move their body violently as they run. However, it should be noted, that his EqBRR was 3.07 in 2007.
- After Utley, there is a huge dropoff, as most teams will have.
- Burrell’s number would probably have been lower had he not been lifted for a pinch-runner so often.
- Ryan Howard is one of the worst baserunners in the league. There is a 13 run difference between him and Rollins on the basepaths. Add this to the run differential they make with their gloves, and you can see how valuable a player like Rollins is, even when he’s not hitting at an MVP pace.
- As a team, the Phillies are an above average baserunning team, gaining 9 runs over the average.
- For the record, the only above average pitcher we have on the paths was Adam Eaton.
- Ichrio Suzuki
- Willy Taveras
- Ian Kinsler
- Jimmy Rollins
- Jose Reyes
- Matt Holliday
- Jacoby Ellsbury
- Chone Figgins
- Shane Victorino
- Nate McClouth
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It was surprising to see Ruiz ranked that high and Utley ranked that low- goes with what you were saying about perceiving one guy as hustling more than another.
“For the record, the only above average pitcher we have on the paths was Adam Eaton. “ I’d just like to point out this statement and give Eaton props because it is likely the only time he will be mentioned in the same sentence with “above average”
I do believe the Phillies are a good baserunning team overall so the numbers match up but sometimes I think some of these stats are too complicated.
Here are my questions with this stat:
How do boneheaded 3rd base coaches figure into it?
How does running through a stop sign figure in? especially if the guy makes it.
Overall though, it seems to match up with what my eyes tell me so I guess they accounted for all that well enough. Cool discussion on stats Pete! Keep em coming.
Thanks for keeping the baseball fires burning, Pete.
Breaking news from Todd Zolecki of the Inquirer:
Chase Utley will have right hip surgery, and will miss the next four to six months.
The Phillies said in a news release that since the end of the World Series, Utley “has had several diagnostic studies in regards to right hip symptoms that he had during the 2008 season.” He has been evaluated by team physician Michael Ciccotti at the Rothman Institute at Thomas Jefferson University Hospital and Dr. Bryan Kelly at the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York.
The release said, “Based on the diagnostic studies and examinations, it has been recommended that Utley have surgery on his right hip, which is scheduled for next week. The procedure will be an arthroscopic evaluation with treatment of any labral or bony injury. The recovery will allow for the initiation of baseball activities between three and four months, however, the total recovery time may require four to six months.”
Four to six months means Utley could be back as early April and as late as June.
I asked Ruben Amaro Jr. about Utley’s hip last week. He said, “There’s really not much to say about it, other than we’re monitoring it.” Asked about any scheduled surgeries, Amaro said: “Not at this time. At least at this time we don’t view it as an issue.”
Turns out it was.
Also:
Pedro Feliz will have back surgery.
Feliz will have low back surgery on November 20. He was on the disabled list during the 2008 season for 26 days in relation to a low back injury and “had intermittent symptoms at the end of the season that deemed off-season follow-up necessary.” Robert Watkins in Los Angeles will perform the surgery, which is scheduled to be a lumbar discectomy. After surgery, Feliz will complete an eight-to-12 week rehabilitation program.
wow, I knew just by watching that Howard was slow, but I had no idea he was that bad. Was there any major impact player rated lower than him? Some random old bench player wouldn’t count. I mean Howard was the MVP of the league just 3 years ago. By the way is Howard getting old / slowing down ? Just wondering…
I knew there was something wrong with Chase… Throw out his slowness on the bases this year, looks like it was injury related.
MD-
just because you win the MVP, doesn’t mean you have to be fast… It’s not a sign of him “slowing down,” it’s a sign of him being 300 pounds
worse rated baserunners than howard: Prince Fielder, Magglio Ordonez, Geovanny Soto, Carlos Pena, Joey Votto and a bunch of catchers.
Fielder and a bunch of catchers with ruined knees makes sense.
About that slowing down business. WSJ did an awesome article awhile back and they found of all the thousands of baseball players the average peak performance was 27, after 27 it was all downhill, with a major exception of some of the steriod users. So I worry about guys over 27.
Howard has been slipping the past 3 years
Batting average HR per game
2006 .313 .365
2007 .268 .326
2008 .251 .296
SLG and OB all down every year as well, and he keeps getting heavier. This is a player in decline according to all the stats.
Unless he loses the weight or more likely turns to steriods or HGH, he’ll be out of baseball shortly.