Part 1: The Hitting

The biggest concern I have is that the Dodgers not only defeated a better opponent than did the Phils, but they also did it in a more dominant fashion.  The Dodgers swept the Cubs and outscored them 20-6 in the process.  Even though I wouldn’t say that the Phils struggled to beat the Brewers, we didn’t beat them as handily as we probably should have considering the pitching we got.  We had many opportunities extend a lead or to put a game out of reach and we were pretty much unable to do it.

Another concern is with the supposed advantage we have because the Dodgers are throwing all right handers and our big bats hit from the left side.  I fully expect the Dodgers to avoid Howard at least as much as the Brewers did, even more if possible.  Another factor in this is Utley.  His is obviously not 100%.  Something is wrong with his hip.  No matter how much he dissembles or refuses to use it as an excuse, it is adversely affecting him.  He will most certainly give us something, but I don’t expect it to be anywhere near what we usually get from him.  Those two factors will combine to lessen any advantage we might have.  I think that the guys who will be the most able to take advantage of the Dodger righties will be Rollins and Victorino.

To further enhance our leftie advantage, I would like to see Dobbs start at third.  He’s swinging a good bat and could really help us sustain rallies and push runs across.  The thought of Feliz and Ruiz back to back every day followed by the pitcher frightens me.  Remember the 9th inning Saturday?  Well I think we might be seeing a lot more of that.  The Dodgers will be able to be more careful and pitch around the other guys knowing that those two are down there.  I expect them to come up with runners on base pretty regularly because of it.  I know I’m dreaming.  Manuel will never do it.   All I’m talking about is having Manuel do what he did on Sunday.  He can start Dobbs and let him get the first two or three at bats.  Then he can bring in Feliz for the final two or three innings and one at bat.  He does it already with Burrell.  I think it’s worth a shot with Dobbs.

The reason I am thinking this way is because I really would like to have another bat in the lineup.  Specifically a “lower-tier” type of guy who will be pitched to and can deliver for us.  Think about it.  Each team will do everything it can to prevent the other team’s big bats from beating them.  We will stay away from Manny and they will stay away from Howard.  Well, you can’t avoid every hitter in the lineup.  You simply must pitch to somebody.  So, teams choose to pitch to the lesser players lower in the lineup.  This is why you regularly see some lightly regarded player (see Lemke, Mark) doing major damage in the playoffs.  A player like that will usually have many opportunities to drive in runs.  I just flat out don’t feel very confident that Feliz and Ruiz will do that for us.  I mean no disrespect for Dobbs with that “lower-tier” statement, but he is undeniably at least a notch below Howard and Utley.  As such, I feel that he would get more pitches to hit and therefore more opportunities to drive in runs.

Part 2: The Pitching

I’m looking at this through the matchups.  We have Hamels vs Lowe, Myers vs Billingsley, Moyer vs Kuroda, and Blanton vs (Maddux?).  Since neither Hamels nor Lowe have pitched on 3 days rest, I am operating under the assumption that they will not do it now.  If that is the case then they will each get two starts and face each other both times, and Myers-Billingsley/Moyer-Kuroda would follow suit.

I like the Hamels-Lowe matchup for us.  Even though Lowe was fantastic in his last ten starts or so of the regular season, Hamels looked dominant against the Brewers.  I really think that Hamels could get Lowe twice, but I will call it a split.

I think we have an even greater advantage in the Myers-Billingsley matchup.  We have hit Billingsley, and Myers seems to have regained the mojo he had working prior to his two consecutive lousy starts to end the season.  Also, if the series lays out the way I expect, Myers will be making both of his starts at home.  This means that, conversely, Billingsley will be making both of his starts on the road.  I see it as a significant advantage for us and I think we win both of Myers’ starts.

That gets us to 3 wins.

The Moyer-Kuroda matchup is a bad one for us.  For whatever reason, Kuroda shut us down twice this year.  Meanwhile the Dodgers are a patient club, so Moyer could struggle like he did against the Brewers.  Also, Manny hammers Moyer.  As long as Manny keeps coming up when there is a base open, we should be ok.  If Moyer has no choice but to pitch to him, look out.  I see us probably losing both of these games.  I feel pretty strongly that game 3 will be a loss for us.  The combination of the pitching matchup with the fact that game 3 will be the first home game in the series for the Dodgers tells me so.  At best, we will split these two games.

The Blanton-whoever matchup could be our biggest advantage.  Blanton appears to be fully recovered from his biceps tendinitis and he should also have a fair amount of confidence after his win against the Brewers.  Also, he will be pitching in Dodger Stadium which will suit him perfectly as a flyball pitcher.  I think we win this game.

The Bottom Line:

That give us our 4 wins.  I am picking us to win the series.  I do this based on equal parts optimism, blind fan loyalty, and confidence that we can get the job done.  We have been picking the Phils apart here for the entire season….how inconsistent the offense is, how we only score runs when we hit homeruns, how we strike out too much, etc…but the fact remains that we did win the NL East and we did beat the Brewers to advance to the NLCS.  Whatever our shortcomings, we have done enough to win a decent amount of ballgames and we are still playing.  Add to that the fact that Manuel seems to be locked in with his moves and I think we will play well.

What I would love to see is for Hamels and Myers give us a repeat performance and throw a couple of gems in games 1 and 2, just like they did against the Brewers.  If we can leave Philly with a 2-0 lead, we will be set up nicely.  Remeber, the Dodgers were not a good road team this year.  (There is of course the possibility that, should the Dodgers fall behind 2-1 with “who knows” pitching game 4, they would decide to pitch Lowe on 3 days rest instead.  If so, he would also be available for game 7 on regular rest.  If that happens, all my matchups are out the window.  There are too many variables to get into all that, so I’m evaluating it straight up.) In that event, I see us losing game 3 and then coming back with a win in game 4.  We would then be up 3-1 and would have Hamels throwing game 5 in LA followed by Myers pitching game 6 in Philly.  I’m thinking that Lowe would get Hamels in game 5, leaving Myers to clinch it in game 6 at home.

Even if the Dodgers were to win one in Philly, the 2-3-2 format works to our advantage.  All we would need to do is win one game in LA in order to ensure that the series would come back to Philly.  We would be down 3-2 but, we would still have two games at home and, again, the Dodgers were not good on the road. (I know they won 2 in Chicago)

Well, there it is.  I’m officially on the record.  Phils in 6!

I am relieved that Blanton gave us a good start yesterday.  Obviously he went a long way toward helping us avoid a game 5 and another showdown with Sabathia.  He also lessened my anxiety heading into the NLCS because we will need a 4th starter for next Monday.  Had he pitched poorly yesterday, I don’t know who we would be looking at to make that start.  As it was, he pitched very well and I’m sure earned that upcoming start against the Dodgers.

I found out yesterday that no matter how patient I think I am, Charlie Manuel has it all over me.  Zack and I were having a discussion about our potential lineup yesterday under the “NLDS game 2 notes” topic.  I got talking about Manuel,  who I thought he was going to play, and why.  I also went on the record in saying that my preference was to sit Burrell.  I know I was not alone in thinking this way.  Good thing none of us fills out the lineup card. 

If Manuel did sit Burrell yesterday, who knows how that would have affected him for the rest of the playoffs.  It’s easy to dismiss, but confidence is a big deal.  Manuel gave Burrell the opportunity to get that confidence.  Paul Hagen’s article really shows where Manuel is coming from.  It extends beyond Burrell as well, as I think he pretty much stays with most guys in an effort to help them gain confidence.  In so doing, he shows us all what it means to be a “player’s manager”.  It’s tough to argue against the approach when you see the results.

As far as the upcoming series with the Dodgers, I will go back to what I have been saying since just after the all-star break….it’s all about the offense.

As long as Myers continues what he did in game 2 against the Brewers and Moyer bounces back, I think our starting pitching is equal to that of the Dodgers.  I also think that a dependable Eyre, a resurgent Madson, a steady Romero, a Durbin who regains his sharpness, and lights-out Lidge is at least the equal of the Dodgers bullpen.

On the other side of the ball, our offense is every bit as inconsistent as it has been since July.  Among the concerns I have are that, in the Dodgers, overall we will be facing both better starters and relievers than we did against the Brewers, and we had difficulty scoring against them…especially the Brewers’ bullpen. 

Another concern is that both Lowe and Billingsley are sinkerball pitchers.  Since we score primarily by the homerun, we will face a difficult challenge against two guys that keep the ball down consistently.  I think, for the mostpart, we will be playing in low scoring, close ballgames.  As such, small ball will be very important. 

We are well aware of how the Phils struggle to play small ball.  For most of the season our lineup has had several different guys who were stuggling all at once.  Our lineup also has a lot of strikeouts and a couple double play machines.  Add to that a lack of speed in a few spots and it’s easy to see why we have difficulty doing all of the things necessary—hitting behind runners, getting runners in from 3rd with less than two outs, stringing together multiple hits and walks—to push runs across without a big fly.

At this point in the season, I don’t see us all of a sudden being able to flip a switch and become proficient at small ball.  We might push a few runs across this way, but not enough to win the series.  I think our best hope is for our hitters to employ as much patience as they can muster (as much as it pains me to say this, like Boston) in an effort to force the Dodgers pitchers to bring the ball up so that we have the pitches we need to drive.  I think another key will be jumping on mistakes when we get them, like Burrell did yesterday.  If we can get those two things going in our favor we should be able to crank out enough doubles, triples, and homeruns to take the series.

Eagles are 26-27 since Super Bowl appearance.  Pure mediocrity. 

Akers may soon have to Kung Fu personnel director to avoid bread lines.

LJ Smith continues to play like Rutgers.

Andy Reid is a plodder’s plodder.

Eagles’ glory isn’t Lurie, it’s kelly green.