Basic Info
Age: 21
Height/Weight: 6’7”, 220 lbs
Hometown: Hull, Quebec
How Acquired: Cliff Lee trade
Stats
Despite already pitching in AA and being talked about as a call-up for the Mariners if he hadn’t been traded, Aumont just turned 21, and only has 106.2 professional innings under his belt. Like with many young pitchers, those innings have been hit or miss. He struggled ERA-wise in AA (10 ER in 17.2 IP), but his K/9 ratio (24 K’s in 17.2 IP) showed that he certainly has the stuff to dominate if he refines his game. The Mariners were using him as a reliever, but the Phillies intend to give him a shot as a starter.
Scouting Report
Aumont is an intimidating power pitcher. He stands at 6’7” and hurls a 94mph fastball (that can touch 96) with some serious sink on it. His secondary pitch is a slider with great movement that he needs to improve his control on. In order for him to be a successful starter, he needs to work on his change-up, which right now is an average pitch at best. Beacuse of his lack of a third pitch (right now), many scouts see him as a closer in the future.
You also can’t talk about Aumont without talking about his temper. He is ultra-competitive and can sometimes let his emotions get the best of him on the mound. He often tosses his glove after being removed from a poor start and has been known to glare at umpires. This kind of emotion can be good, but Aumont needs to learn when to rein it in. Being only 20, we’ll give him time to mature and hope he has better maturing powers than Brett “I can throw a fastball past this punk Pujols” Myers.
Path to the Majors
Aumont will get a starting gig in Reading this year for 2 reasons. First, starters obviously have better long term value than relievers, and second, even if he ends up as a reliever, starting will give him more innings to work on his pitches. If he progresses as a starter, his timetable will slow down and he likely won’t be a candidate for the rotation until mid-2011 at the earliest. If he doesn’t, and the Phillies move him back to a reliever, his 2 main pitches are good enough for him to come up right away. He could potentially be Lidge’s replacement in 2012, when he turns 23.
For prospects 11-20, and all other Phillies’ prospects posts, visit the Top Prospects page.
The number of 20 year old pitcher who have the stuff Aumont does is not high. He has a very high ceiling if he can develop as you say. At worst, he can be a plus set up man. At best, a #1 starter, maybe even an all-star. I know it’s too early to predict such things, given injury chance and all that, but as I said, he’s got a special arm.
Couple reads on Aumont for your viewing perusal.
http://blogs.delawareonline.com/philledin/2010/02/16/aumonts-magic-moment/
http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20080218/SPORTS/954956852/1004
heres an interesting Q&A with Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus over at PhuturePhillies… lots of stuff on Aumont….Goldstein can’t say enough about Aumont’s fastball
http://phuturephillies.com/2010/02/19/prospect-qa-with-kevin-goldstein-3/
Found this interesting. Andy Martino’s latest blog post from today (3:27pm) is about Steven Strasburg, who threw his first bullpen session today, and how the Nats want to be very careful and bring him along slowly (Nats manager Jim Riggleman was the Cubs manager and handled Kerry Wood early in his career. Enough said.) and build a contender around him over the next few years. Check out what Nats GM Mike Rizzo had to say about the Phils organization……
Nats GM Mike Rizzo also talked about using the Phillies as a prototype for his future success. In the National League East, a once-forlorn Phils franchise became a force largely by drafting well and emphasizing so-called “high character” players. Rizzo is employing the same approach in an effort to climb into contention, and possibly capitalize in several years when the Phils core reaches the natural end of its reign.
“Three, four years ago in Philly it wasn’t the case” that players wanted to come there, Rizzo said. “Pat (Gillick) started it, Ruben (Amaro Jr.) continued it, and now there’s no question that people want to go to Philly. They have a great atmosphere there. They are a franchise you model yourself on.”
Found this interesting. Andy Martino’s latest blog post today (3:27pm) is about Steven Strasburg, who threw his first bullpen session today, and how the Nats plan on being very careful and bring him along slowly (Nats manager Jim Riggleman managed the Cubs and had Kerry Wood early in his career. Enough said.) and building a winner around him over the next few years. Check out what Nats GM Mike Rizzo said about the Phils organization……
Nats GM Mike Rizzo also talked about using the Phillies as a prototype for his future success. In the National League East, a once-forlorn Phils franchise became a force largely by drafting well and emphasizing so-called “high character” players. Rizzo is employing the same approach in an effort to climb into contention, and possibly capitalize in several years when the Phils core reaches the natural end of its reign.
“Three, four years ago in Philly it wasn’t the case” that players wanted to come there, Rizzo said. “Pat (Gillick) started it, Ruben (Amaro Jr.) continued it, and now there’s no question that people want to go to Philly. They have a great atmosphere there. They are a franchise you model yourself on.”
Well, I don’t see how Kevin Goldstein can say when you trade a Cliff Lee you want a stud back. I mean the guy is a free agent after the coming season, and it seems fairly apparent that he has different terms in mind than the Phillies as in length and or dollars. The bottom line on this deal is that it’s debatable for a while. Hamels coming back strong gives the Phils 2 top line guys (somewhat devaluing Lee) and though I’ve never seen the players acquired in action, I feel pretty confident that we’re getting good talent back that likely vindicates Amaro among those questioning the deal. Amaro knows better than I as to whether he could have waited and shopped Lee for an even better package so I can’t even fault him for that.
Regarding Mike Rizzo’s salivating at the Phils organization, it’s flattering, but we need to remember fame is fleeting. Organizational excellence is nothing new, not to the Phillies or baseball. To say this started with Paul Gillick is inaccurate. The Golden Age of Phillies baseball Phase 1 ran from 1974-1983. That was under the direction of Ruly Carpenter and/or Pope Owens. Players wanted to come to the Phils then. Witness Pete Rose. But the Phils couldn’t sustain it. The object is to keep it going long term. Every successful baseball franchise, ranging from the Yanks, BoSox, Cards and Dodgers all have long term success patterns and rings to show it, but not without dark periods. Even the Yankees. So we may be a role model today, but what we do for an encore as the studs age is what really determines how much of a role model this franchise is. Cleveland was a role model several years ago and look at them now.
Do players really want to come to Philadelphia? In 150 years from now, I can see only 1 potential example that might surpass the proof that they do that developed this off season. Roy Halladay passed on countless millions of dollars by signing here. With a good degree of liberal thinking, here’s a scenario that might unfold. This past weekend, and unnamed basbeall front office man gave a forecast on Seatttle.
Despite the 1-2 of King Felix and Cliff, he said that they had overachieved last year, and saw them falling back to .500. Should that occur, perhaps Cliff Lee would realize what he had here, and be willing to think like Halladay, and be open to signing more on the Phillies terms. Halladay’s thinking seems awfully unique, but if Lee did that, that might surpass Hallday’s example of showing that players want to come to Philly. Just a thought.
Ken, are you suggesting Lee signing with the Phils next off season? Because I really can’t see that happening.
I’m glad that Halladay sidestepped the whole “who’s the best pitcher in the NL East” thing. Apparently, Halladay is confident and secure enough to avoid a war of words and instead to let his performance on the field speak for itself, whereas Santana, due to insecurity or a perceived lack of respect, feels the need to proclaim himself to be. It has gotten the media talking about it though.
Last week (Feb. 18th) Rob Neyer weighed in with his opinion on his SweetSpot blog, saying:
When asked Thursday who the best pitcher in the division is this year, Santana shrugged and said, “Santana.”
We tend to admire players who are humble, but sometimes their modesty is false and I also admire players who say what they believe, even if what they say is decidedly immodest.
But it’s not likely that Santana will be the best pitcher in the National League East in 2010, because of Roy Halladay.
Just looking at their numbers over the last two seasons, they’re not really so far apart.
Halladay’s got a 2.78 ERA in 485 innings.
Santana’s got a 2.78 ERA in 401 innings.
Gee, that’s even closer than I thought. Except for the innings. And while few pitchers can match Halladay’s durability, Santana has thrown slightly more innings than Halladay over the last five seasons. Santana strikes out more batters, but Halladay gives up fewer home runs. Fundamentally, they’ve been almost identically brilliant for some years now.
Except for one fundamental thing: Halladay’s spent the last two seasons pitching against the best teams in the best division in the best league. Santana hasn’t. I think it’s fair to suggest that if Roy Halladay had been pitching for the Mets these last two seasons — as Santana has — he would have given Tim Lincecum all he could handle in the Cy Young balloting. As good as Santana was in 2008, he wasn’t as good as Halladay. And there really wasn’t any comparison in 2009.
So we’ve got two brilliant, Hall of Fame-quality pitchers near the peak of their powers. But one of them has been measurably better in each of the past two seasons, and we should expect him to pitch better next season.
Jayson Stark gave his opinion yesterday (Feb. 21st). Unfortunately, I am not an ESPN Insider. Can anyone tell me what he had to say?
CLEARWATER, Fla. — And the best pitcher in the NL East is …
Stephen Strasburg.
Oh, OK. Not yet. We probably ought to wait ’til he pitches a game first. At least in the Grapefruit League.
So that means the best pitcher in the NL East is …
Johan Santana.
Or so said Johan Santana the other day, anyway.
But when we tried to draw Roy Halladay into this debate Friday, he fired out what he said was an old Lou Holtz quote that turned out, according to the St. Petersburg Times’ Joe Smith, to be, actually, a Benjamin Franklin (not to be confused with Ryan Franklin) quote:
“Well-done,” Halladay quoteth, from whomever he was quoting, “is always more important than well-said.”
In other words, leave him out of this.
So fine. Let’s grant him that wish.
Instead, I ran this topic past two Phillies who have been teammates of both Santana and Halladay — catcher Brian Schneider and reliever J.C. Romero. Granted, they’ve only been teammates of Halladay for, like, 20 minutes. But good enough for the blogosphere.
“No doubt, Johan is confident,” said Schneider, who caught Santana with the Mets the past two years. “He’s a confident guy. He believes in himself, and I don’t see any problem with him sticking up for himself and his team. But of course, I’m going to stick with my team and my guy.”
“One of the reasons Johan’s successful,” said Romero, a Twins teammate of Santana for six years, “is he doesn’t say much, but he’s very confident about what he brings to the table. Still, it really surprised me when he said that, because normally, he’s the type of guy who goes about his business without saying a word.”
Romero positioned himself as a candidate to be the next ambassador to China by not taking sides in this riveting debate. But he did hint that Santana isn’t quite what he used to be. “I had the privilege to play with him when he was at his best,” Romero said. “I mean, he’s very good right now. But when he really had that blasting fastball in the mid-90s with a Bugs Bunny changeup, it was very entertaining to see power hitters coming to their knees, trying to hit his changeup.
“So [what he said] may have some truth behind it. But the way I see it, Roy and Johan are head-to-head. And whoever wins the Cy Young that year is the best in the league.”
Well, when those quotes had settled to Earth, I admit I didn’t exactly settle anything, except that Schneider and Romero are never going to make it in the WWE with all this diplomacy. Maybe when Jimmy Rollins checks into Phillies camp, he can up the trash-talk ante and reignite this rivalry. Operators and bloggers are standing by.
In the meantime, I thought it might be useful to see what the numbers tell us about the Halladay-versus-Santana mano a mano. And it turned out the numbers, who don’t have to worry about taking a fastball under the eyebrows if they say the wrong thing, are big Santana fans.
I went back to 2004, the year Santana moved into the Twins’ rotation for good, and ranked both pitchers in 10 categories. Take a look:
Now Santana and Halladay actually rank 1-2 in the whole sport in a lot of these categories. So let’s put these numbers in perspective. But if the question is, “Who has been the best pitcher over the past six seasons?” then the answer is clear:
Santana.
But remember, Halladay has been working exclusively in the AL East for all those years. So who knows what his numbers would look like if he’d been hanging out in the AL Central and NL East?
Well, we know they’d look different. That’s for sure. I explored that angle in depth the other day, in case you missed it. And so, in a slightly different way, did the tremendous New York Post baseball columnist, Joel Sherman.
Three great tidbits he uncovered:
• Of Halladay’s 65 starts over the past two seasons, an incredible 20 came just against the Yankees and Red Sox — and he went 13-6, with a 2.59 ERA, in those starts.
• The Yankees had only eight complete games thrown against them over the past two seasons — five by Halladay, three by the rest of the human race.
• And the Yankees had just three complete-game shutouts pitched against them in ’08-09 — two by Halladay, one by pitchers we’ll call Not Roy Halladay.
Santana, for what it’s worth, faced the Yankees and Red Sox four times in the same span — and went 2-2, with a 6.84 ERA. Those numbers are skewed, though, by the game in June 2009 in which he clearly wasn’t right, and gave up a career-high nine runs in three innings against the Yankees. So feel free to factor that in (or out) however you’d like.
Either way, it’s safe to bet the Mets and Phillies would gladly take either guy over, say,Sidney Ponson. But who’s REALLY the best pitcher in the NL East? They have many years ahead of them to settle that debate the only place that matters:
On the mound.
thats the stark article
Thanks, Pete!
It will be fun to watch it play out.