I failed at getting past my prospects to get excited about post, so I’ve dumbed it down and here is a pretty simple top-20 prospects midway through the season.
I am not including any of the recently drafted players here, but when Larry Greene signs, it will be nice to write about someone who can actually hit HR’s in our system…
Numbers through 7/10/11
1. Jonathan Singleton, 1B/OF, 19, A+
Stats to like: .385 OBP, 47 BB
Stats to not: .389 SLG%, 74 SO
Singleton has been a little disappointing this year. He hasn’t really hit for much power (6 HR) and has been striking out a lot. However, a swing tweak that didn’t work out and some nagging injuries might have something to do with that. Bottom line is he’s just 19, leads the Phillies’ minor league system in walks and has some serious upside left to tap.
2. Jarred Cosart, RHP, 21, A+
Stats to like: 7.1 H/9, 3.23 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Stats to not: 6.7 K/9
I really can’t wrap my head around Cosart’s strikeout “issues” this year. With his stuff, he should be striking out a batter an inning pretty easy. He struck out 2 in his impressive Future’s Game appearance, flashing a mid-to-upper 90′s fastball and this curveball. He’s still tweaking some things with his delivery and pitches, so I’m chalking it up to that. Part of me still thinks that he ends up as a closer due to his big time fastball and history of arm troubles (i.e., might not be able to handle 200 IP).
3. Trevor May, RHP, 21, A+
Stats to like: 11.7 K/9, 6.7 H/9, 3.32 ERA, 123 K
Stats to not: 4.2 BB/9
May has always had the stuff, but his lack of control has really handcuffed him. This year he’s taken a big step forward towards becoming a top-of-the-rotation type prospect. He is 5th in the minors among starers in K/9 and has very similar numbers to the Cardinals’ Shelby Miller, considered one of the top pitching prospects in the game. The one area he trails Miller is in BB/9, where he still sits at a high 4.2/9 rate. However, this is a huge improvement from the 5.4/9 he sported last year, and if he can continue to improve on it, he could challenge Cosart for best arm in the system.
4. Brody Colvin, RHP, 20, A+
Stats to like: n/a
Stats to not: 12 starts, 4.16 ERA, 6.2 K/9
Colvin has been relatively disappointing this year, but still hasn’t fully gotten his feet under him. Word was that he didn’t quite show up for camp in shape and therefore suffered an injury that kept him out for a bit. As for his numbers when he got back, his K/9 are down and he’s allowed over a hit per inning. Can’t drop him too far though after just 1/2 season. (note: Colvin had his best start of the year tonight, 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 9 K, not included in those stats)
5. Jesse Biddle, LHP, 19, A
Stats to like: 8.7 K/9, 3.35 ERA,
Stats to not: 1.36 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9
Biddle, last year’s 1st round pick, has been as good as anyone could hope for. After a rough April, he has a 2.49 ERA (13 starts), allowing only 6.7 H/9. He is 3rd in the Sally in strike-outs, with both pitchers ahead of him several years older. His walk rate is a problem right now, but at just 19, he’s pitching very well for A.
6. Sebastian Valle, C, 20, A+
Stats to like: .324 BA, .795 OPS
Stats to not: 5 BB, 3 HR
Valle can hit. After that, I’m not too sure. Let’s start with the good. Valle is 3rd in FSL in batting average at .324. He was up to .369 at the all-star break, but has been slumping a bit since. But a great batting average can be ruined if that is the ONLY way you get on base. Valle has an astonishing 5 walks this year, and that includes 2 in his last 4 games. It’s hard to walk only 5 times in 213 at-bats – especially against inexperienced pitching. He obviously needs to improve his plate discipline. His defense has reportedly improved, but is still a work in progress.
7. Domingo Santana, OF, 18, A
Stats to like: 27 XBH, .763 OPS
Stats to not: 94 K
Santana’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but then you remember his age (18) and his improvement over last year. The Phillies challenged the then 17-year-old Santana to play in Single-A. He was the youngest Lakewood player ever. He struggled mightily, with a .619 OPS and was sent down. This year, they started him there again, and he’s responded, raising his OPS by 144 points.
8. Justin De Fratus, RHP, 23, AAA
Stats to like: 11.4 K/9, 2.81 ERA
Stats to not: 3.6 BB/9, 1.31 WHIP
Mike Stutes has been a huge addition to the bullpen this year, and De Fratus is one of 3 big righties who could be next. He has used his blazing fastball to earn a promotion up to Lehigh Valley, where he has given up some runs (4.61 ERA), but still has struck out 18 in 13.2 IP.
9. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP, 20, A+
Stats to like: 2.60 ERA, 3.4 K/BB, 0.3 HR/9
Stats to not: 6.5 K/9
One of the more pleasant surprises this year, Pettibone is continuing his role as the work-horse of the Clearwater staff. He is all over the FSL league leaderboard. 2nd in IP, 3rd in ERA and 7th in WHIP. He has a sinking fastball that is proving very adept at getting lefties to ground-out, as he sports a 1.61 GO/AO ratio against lefties this year.
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP, 20, A+
Stats to like: 8.4 K/9, 6.2 H/9, 1.14 WHIP
Stats to not: 4.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
Last year’s out of nowhere prospect has kept it up and is the 5th member of the Clearwater staff (Cosart, May, Colvin, Pettibone) in the top-10. His numbers look great across the board except a climbing BB/9 rate, but scouting reports continue to question his ability to get hitters out at higher levels.
11. Mike Schwimer, RHP, 25, AAA
Stats to like: 11.4 K/9, 1.78 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6.2 H/9
Stats to not: 3.0 BB/9
Mike Stutes #2, I personally have no idea what Schwimer hasn’t been called up yet to replace David Herndon or Danys Baez.
12. Freddy Galvis, SS, 21, AA
Stats to like: .259 BA, 7 HR, .707 OPS
Stats to not: n/a
Galvis fell off my list last year because it appeared he was never going to hit. But this year has given him hope. He’s never had an OPS over .588 in a minor league season, but this year, he’s “soared” over .700. That’s all he needs to be a regular major leaguer considering his glove skills.
13. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, 22, AAA
Stats to like: 12.6 K/9, 2.56 ERA
Stats to not: 3.7 BB/9
Mike Stutes #3. We all know about Aumont, and he has responded well to going back to a full-time reliever. His K/9 rate is the best in the system for a prospect (28-year-old Mike Zagurski has 12.8) and he had a fantastic 2.1 GO/AO rate in Reading before his call-up to Lehigh. Probably a higher upside than Schwimer, but he hasn’t done it long enough for me to fully buy-in.
14. Zach Collier, OF, 20, A+
Stats to like: 25 BB, 25 SB, .733 OPS
Stats to not: .385 SLG%
Easily the most surprising name on this list, Collier was a high-pick of the Phillies in 2008, but struggled mightily and then got hurt and missed all of 2010. He started off slow, as one would expect from someone coming off missing a whole year, but he has found his swing a little, with a .780 OPS since May 1st. He leads the Phillies system in steals with 25 and has shown good plate discipline with 25 walks. Not hitting for any power yet, but that could come.
15. J.C. Ramirez, RHP, 22, AA
Stats to like: 7.7 H/9, 1.19 WHIP
Stats to not: 4.7 K/9
A weird season for Ramirez. He got great reviews from the Phillies’ staff in spring training. Then came out and has one of the strangest stat-lines I’ve seen in his first 4 starts (4-0, 26.1 IP, 1.03 ERA, only 6 strikeouts). Then he was horrible, and recently he’s been better. I can’t really get behind a pitcher with a K/9 rate that low (think Kendrick), but Ramirez has been good otherwise. Could see him converted to a reliever at some point too.
16. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP, 21, A
Stats to like: 0.88 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 1.49 ERA, 6.0 H/9, 2.0 BB/9
Stats to not: n/a
This year’s Julio-Rod? Bonilla (pictured above) has come out of nowhere to put up stupid numbers. In searching for a scouting report, Baseball Prospectus reported he has an average-plus fastball and a very good change-up. If he keeps these numbers up for a larger sample size (he’s only made 5 starts since being converted from reliever) he could rocket up this list.
17. Leandro Castro, OF, 22, A+
Stats to like: 10 HR, .481 SLG%, .785 OPS
Stats to not: .305 OBP, 5 BB
Like Valle, he has a ridiculously low 5 walks, but his .481 SLG% is a big improvement over last year and his 10 HR are best among legit prospects.
18. Aaron Altherr, OF, 20, SS
Stats to like: .797 OPS (SS only), 17 SB
Stats to not: .293 OBP (total), .634 OPS (total)
Everyone was hyping this kid up in the pre-season and I left him off my list. I felt stupid, but after his performance at Lakewood (.544 OPS), I don’t feel so bad. He picked it up since going down to Williamsport and hopefully he can have a positive comeback in Lakewood next year much like Domingo Santana this year.
19. Matt Rizzotti, 1B, 25, AA
Stats to like: .378 OBP, 16 HR
Stats to not: 85 K, Age 25
Is he a prospect, is he not? I don’t know, but given the fantastic numbers he’s put up the last couple years and the fact that he hits for average, can take a walk and hits for power, can’t he at least be a Ross Gload type in the majors?
20. Brian Pointer, OF, 19, Rk
Stats to like: .820 OPS, 8 XBH in 54 AB
Stats to not: n/a
He has 54 AB to his name, but is another high-upside HS OF.
On ESPN’s list of “Five NL Trades That Should Happen,” they have Hunter Pence going to the Phils. I think this would be a bonkers trade for Houston to make (for many reasons), but say it happens, what kind of prospects do you think the Stros would demand from this list?
Pence is not a free agent until 2014, so we would be trading for this season, and 2 more, from him, for a reasonable price.
With that in mind, I think it would take a lot to pry him away.
Houston would probably ask for Cosart and Singleton.
I would be OK with building something around Cosart. But I’m not sure what else would make it happen. There is a pretty big drop off after #6 on this list, so I think they would want 2 of our top 6, and I don’t think I would do that…
Pence is entering his prime and would be a great addition to the lineup and would be awesome if he could hit between Utley and Howard. Breaking up the lefties with a plus power bat and high average would be perfect, and I’m pretty sure he’s above average in the outfield. Dom Brown moves to left and Pence in right with Shane in the middle would be fantastic! Either Pence or McCutchen and I might have a heart attack.
I wonder how Ruben will pull a rabbit like Pence out of the hat! That, plus a bullpen acquistion will certainly help the Phils in their playoff run!
GO PHILS!
Acquiring young talent like that would be huge for this aging team. I have always like Pence; like Justin Upton, youth has given him his ups and downs. Like Pete said, the price would be steep but you know who’s got a special relationship with the Houston Astros….
Lisalberto Bonilla.
I envy the PA announcer who would get to say this name.
I can just about hear Harry Kalas drawing that one out…
CRIS-TEE-YANNNN……GUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUZMANNNNNNNNN!!!
It looks like the Mets’ fire sale is going strengthen some of the Phils’ most likely postseason competition with K-Rod going to the Brewers and with the Giants potentially in on Beltran.
Also regarding the K-Rod trade and just out of curiousity, does anyone know how the “player(s) to be named later” works in a trade? Do they agree on a certain list of players from which the Brewers can later choose? Or do they say we’ll give you a B prospect and a C prospect as rated by a third party scouting business?
Regarding Hunter Pence, I would definitely give up 2 of the top 6 prospects for him. I can see the Phils maintaining a high payroll if they make smart personnel decisions and stay competitive but let’s be honest, it’s not going to get easier for the Phils to win championships with this aging core so I would lean more towards going all-in now.
Hmm, the Brewers really did need back end bullpen help after blowing so many leads. Pretty scary if Greinke gets it straight.
I think the deal has to have been done already. No way the Mets will just pick any two prospects for KRod. They have certain targets. I think maybe the physical is pending and if one doesnt clear they might be able to replace it with another from their target pool.
I would gladly give up Cossart for Pence. After him I’m less willing to tack up more high level prospects. I think the farm is the future of this team with all those arms, I’m not going to swap my top 2 for Hunter Pence, yet. I’ll stress this again, we have a special relationship with the Astros. If Pence is a Phillie soon, I expect a good discount. Call your buddy RAJ.
Was surprised to learn K-Rod’s only 29. Nice pick up for Brewers. I wonder if his father-in-law approves of the trade. Maybe Phils can get Reyes or Wright.
Is that a joke? I would think both are unavailable. Cog pieces IMO
No, that’s a dreamy extrapolation. Mgr. Collins has stated that he’s cleaning his attic during AS break … (paraphrasing) “everything to the center and down the stairs.”
Do cash-strapped Mets sink deeper to chase this career year of Jose? Wright would love CBP, I imagine. Fire sale is on. Step right up.
In sports, the impossible is always possible, as long as you got ambition and $$$. Not many Knick fans would’ve bet on Amare & Melo at this time last year.
Yes, Ruben needs to sandwich a solid righthanded hitter onto roster or he’ll likely be grilled in October. Fresh lettuce of the organization should allow for a complementary insert or two to the serving for the Braves/Giants/Cards/Brewers/Pirates/Reds/D-Backs ‘October Showdown’ menu (chips and pickles on the plate – on the house!).
I wonder if a cosart/Mayberry combo would catch their interest. Gives them a top prospect and a guy who can step in and play, and Mayberry probably would be the odd man out if we picked up pence.
if he had started off hot or perhaps stayed on instead of being yo-yo-ed back and forth, I really think there might be interest in him. Basically we sacrificed his roster spot to make sure the underachieving Dominic Brown was comfortable.
He’s actually been on a nice little hot stretch since coming back up, and has a pretty polished game otherwise. It’s something i’d at least throw out there if I were amaro.
Mayberry does not have a lot of trade value. He is not an everyday player.
Werth didn’t have a lot of trade value in ’05. Mayberry may bear fruit in a more nurturing, patient environment. Character goes a long way. Lesser talent, has his flaws at plate, but isn’t as goofy as Dom the Bombardier. At 27, could be ready to give more than expected.
At age 27, Mayberry does not have any more projection left. He is what he is and I view Mayberry as a Marcus Thames type player, which isn’t a bad thing. Thames a few years ago was a good bench guy. I view Mayberry the same way and on a sucky team like the Astros, he is passable as a regular. but on any other team he is a 4th/5th outfielder, which he is right now with us. So he does not have a lot of trade value as there are a lot of guys that fit this similar description.
As you stated, Werth in 05 did not have a lot of trade value, but the difference between these guys is that Werth was projected to become a solid everyday player. But as we all know, Werth was hampered with a lot of injuries that delayed his progress as a player.
Guys continue to to have projection left until they stop improving. Its not tied soley to age. Mayberry continues to improve every year, so he has projection left. What is is ceilling? I have no idea. But he’s shown himself to be adept at making adjustments, and those are the types of guys that have value. He was getting pounded inside before getting sent down because he couldn’t hit that pitch. He adjusted his feet a bit and is able to hit that pitch now. Howard could learn a lot from him.
Mayberry is a fine bench player who can start against a lefty, pop a hr off the bench once in a while and has enough versatility to play the three outfield positions. I don’t hate or like the guy, but when I say, Mayberry does not have any value, I am talking about his trade value. The things dude and jjg has said can also be said for Francisco when he was with the INdians or for a hand full of other player for that matter. But again, what I am trying to say is that Mayberry does not have any trade value. What was Francisco in the Lee deal? He was a throw in. If the Indians said “no, we will not include Francisco”, would that have affected the trade? No, it wouldn’t because he was a throw in and because he was expendable. There is no way that a combo of cosart and mayberry gets the deal done. There is no way.
Well, we were talking about including him as a throw in in the first place. The centerpeice of the deal is obviously the top prospect. He’s a sweatener, and you maybe throw in another prospect in the lower end of the top 10 range. Sometimes if a team is trading away an everyday player, they want someone back who can at least fill in for him until they find a better option. Anyway, It was really just an off the cuff comment i made about throwing him in. I’m not really interested in discussiong that aspect of it further (and not every really sure that i’d want to trade him anyway).
I will say that you’re undervaluing Mayberry if you put him on par with Francisco. Mayberry has great range in the outfield & can play right or center (the two more challenging OF positions). He also has a plus arm and good speed on the bases. Francisco is slow, has a below average arm, and would not be able to play center. Offensively, they have a similar approach in that they both see a lot of pitches. Mayberry probably has better power (11 career homers in 211 career plate appearances – thats an average of 1 every 19 PA’s. Jayson Werth averages 1 in every 25. Howard is one in every 15). His splits are actually better against righties than lefties if you look at them.
Small sample size? Yes. The key for me though, as i mentioned earlier, is that he is still getting better. He looked just as awkward as Brown when he was first called up a few years ago. Has polished all aspects of his game since then. Over the last 14 days (mostly as an every day fill in for Shane), hes hitting .318/.381/.1223. He realized (or was told) that he was getting pounded inside, and made the necessary adjustments to his foot placement.
Not everybody has that kind of coachability, and his defense means that can get away with not being a stellar offensive player & still carry his weight - thats why he has more value than a Francisco.
Ryan, I think the “player to be named later” is similar to the “future first round pick”. The Brewers would give the mets a list of lets say 5 players, and they can choose say 2 of them at any point in the next say 2 months. I’ve wondered this same question, and in the past I noticed that in one particular trade a team was able to pick 1 player within the 6 months to a year from a list of about 15 players.
I’m pretty sure this is how a deal takes place, unless things have changed or a “player to be named later” has multiple meanings,
Thanks Joof!
I don’t see the Pence trade happening. I might be wrong, but I think acquiring Pence would push us into the luxury tax. And if so, RAJ most likely would ask for money as part of the deal, which would also cost us more prospects.
Ruben,
I disagree – ESPN has the Phils’ 2011 payroll at $172,976,381. The luxury tax for 2011 is $178M. Hunter Pence is making $6.9M this season, which prorated for the rest of the season is about $3M. So the Phils could fit him in under the luxury tax for this season. But even if they had to go over the luxury tax a little bit, I would still argue that the increased championship opportunity is worth the 22.5% tax.
Also, from Jon Heyman: “The Phillies seek a reliever and a righthanded bat. They play to win, so any claim of having little money to spend should be taken pretty lightly.”
I have no idea if we actually trade for pence, but one thing amaro had proven is that he’s not afraid to go for broke, and he’s probably working on something even if he says publically that he’s not ( two things… Oh bugger)
yeah, I agree.
Latest news, per Jim Salisbury, is Astros want Brown and a top prospect for Pence, who is the Phils number one target and who they consider “the missing puzzle piece”. That means Worley and Mayberry are safe, and Pence is awesome (2nd highest avg. in the NL, somewhere near 15HR so far, etc…) so I’d LOVE to see this! I’d prefer not to lose certain prospects (Schwimer, Biddle and Galvis for starters) so I’d like to see someone else go instead, but if it has to be, I say do it – especially if talks w/ Pence include his interest in signing an extension!