Clearly Pat Gillick has been a frequent visitor to ReclinerGM and saw that the public didn’t think that A.J. Burnett was a very good idea. In response, he has turned his attention to a different target, A’s pitcher Joe Blanton.
According to ESPN.com, talks on Blanton have “accelerated,” possibly by the realization that Adam Eaton, as mentioned in the Phillies mid-season review, is literally the WORST starting pitcher in baseball.
Blanton has struggled as of late, and currently sports a 4.96 ERA. However, he is only 27, is a real innings eater, has a 4.25 career ERA and cannot be a free agent for a couple years. Personally, I would love him on our team. He showed what he could do in his start against us in June, when he went for 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER.
The problem? When you deal with A’s GM Billy Beane, you almost always have to give up too much. You’ve got to imagine Beane is looking for a deal starting with our best pitching prospect, Carlos Carrasco, and our best catching prospect, Lou Marson, whose .450 on-base percentage likely has Mr. Moneyball drooling.
So, as always, we leave it to you. Is Joe Blanton the answer? If so, what do you think is an appropriate deal to offer the A’s?
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{ 36 comments… read them below or add one }
“what do you think is an appropriate deal to offer the A’s?”
Not much.
#1) I think the reason we’re looking at Blanton is because we’re unwilling to deal our top farm hands. Giving up any real quality prospects for Blanton would be insane.
#2) There are a lot better options out there than Blanton. He’s struggled in Oakland this year, one of the best pitchers parks in the league…how’s that going to translate to CBP? In addition, take a look at how pitcher’s have fared on their new team after being traded from Oakland…Zito, Mulder, Hudson.
#3) Don’t trade with Billy Beane.
Your right. We are not going to give up any of our top prospects because Gillick is in his last year with us and does not want to deplete the farm system and leave our future GM Ruben Arbuckle up sh*ts creek. I think that sly fox Pat Gillick will be able to acquire someone without giving up the farm. If you haven’t seen the spreadsheet on MLBTR of Pat Gillicks moves/acquisitions in his career I would do so. The man is good at what he does. Especially the moves that basically gave the Toronto B-Js their world series in 93.
According to Olney, we have made a formal offer, and if this gets done, it could get done “quickly” (i.e. before Eaton’s next start)
Duke – He also traded Dan Haren. While Blanton is NOWHERE near the pitcher Haren is, I would expect his performance to stay consistent, like Haren’s has.
What are the better options?
Remember, if we get him, we have his rights for 2009 and 2010, so this is no short-term fix. So you are gonna have to give up some good prospects.
Also, Blanton gets no run support from the A’s. Just like our friend Kyle Lohse. The numbers do not reflect how he has pitched this season. I have him in fantasy and it pisses me off that he puts up good games and doesn’t get the win…. I am just playing fantasy and I am pissed. Imagine how it feels to be dealing with it in real life…
I am now on the Joe Blanton bandwagon. I don’t think he is the elite pitcher Phils fans are hoping for, but I don’t think we will get that pitcher this year. He is certainly an upgrade from Adam Eatin 8.5mil a year lol.
lets be honest. anyone on this website would be an upgrade over Adam Eaton at this point! I am alright with Blanton, if it happens, as long as Gillick & co. don’t try to sell me on the fact that this move puts them over the top. He’s probably falls into that #3 guy in a pinch but, fits better in the #4 slot. I read that Matt Cain could become available, now that is a guy i would sell the farm for.
Undoubtedly an upgrade from Eaton, but ANY major league starter is an upgrade from Eaton. This is not an exaggeration…Eaton has been the worst starter in the majors during the course of his tenure in Philadelphia.
@Pete
Yes, Oakland traded Haren…they also got Dana Eveland and Greg Smith in return.
I’m not against trading for Blanton, I’m just against giving up top level talent in order to get him. He’d be an excellent addition to our staff and his contract is very affordable and runs through 2010.
All that being said, I do still think there are better options. I’ll list a few…
Jeremy Guthrie – Currently sporting a 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in Baltimore, a hitters park similar to CBP. Has been fantastic for two consecutive seasons. Late bloomer who has finally come into his own. Guthrie is 29 years old and was a 2002 first round (22nd overall) pick. Orioles are undoubtedly rebuilding and you would have to assume that Guthrie would be available for the right price. I’d be willing to deal Carrasco for him.
Chris Young, SD Padres – Young’s been out for a while after taking a line drive to the nose. He’s been a stellar pitcher for the past several seasons and just had his first rehab start (which went very well).
Zack Grienke – 3.48 ERA, 1.26 WHIP this season. Greinke’s only 24 years old and would probably be difficult to acquire, but I’d be willing to give up a lot to get him.
Eric Bedard – Bedard’s been discussed in Phil’s trade rumors so I won’t go into depth about him. I still prefer him to Blanton and can’t really figure out why so many people are so down on him. I think Seattle gave up a ridiculous haul to acquire him from the O’s and as a result, expectations were too high.
I’ll throw one more in there. This is more of a second tier guy, but I like him and think he could be an asset. Chris Sampson – 30 year old who’s been flip flopped from the rotation to the pen in Houston. He could probably be attained without giving up much at all and could be similar to last year’s acquisition of Kyle Lohse. BTW, I do like Blanton more than Sampson.
@jmcronin
Didn’t see that about Cain, but if it’s true I’m on board. Don’t see why the Giants would be willing to trade him.
Well the first thing I like to potential phillies pitchers is the groundball flyball rate because of our ballpark.
Blanton is more of a groundball pitcher than a flyball pitcher with a 1.34 GB/FB ratio
His rate is the 50th best out of 121 pitchers with at least 80 IP this season.
So he isn’t Brandon Webb or Derek Lowe in terms of getting groundballs but he’s above average which is necessary to succeed in CBP.
With that said THIS season he has similar numbers to Moyer so that’s probably what we can expect… something similar to Moyer. No ace for sure but certainly an upgrade over Eaton. Logic tells us that his ERA will rise moving to CBP and that it will go down coming to the NL without the DH so call it a wash. I would expect a 4.50ish ERA which would make his record a few games above .500 on this team. maybe 6-4 the rest of the way.
I would trade for him but none of the top prospects like Marson Carrasco Golson McDonald. Offer them 2-4 average to lower prospects and see if its the best Billy Beane can do.
As far as the success of A’s pitchers after being traded it looks like its 50/50 Mulder and Zito sucked while Hudson and Haren have done well.
BUT I am a little scared of dealing with Beane he seems to get the best of most deals. His return on Haren already looks great and those players are all still young.
@bball
When you say 50/50, remember that you’re talking about 4 guy’s that we’re considered surefire top of the rotation studs, which nobody is confusing Blanton for. Two of whom flamed out and are absolute wrecks, in Zito and Mulder. Also, don’t forget that Hudson’s first two seasons with the Braves were nothing to write home about. In fact, 2006 was atrocious.
I would love Guthrie or Greinke. Would give up Carrasco for Greinke, but not Guthrie. The knock with Bedard is beacuse he is so good you will have to give up a lot for him and A. he is on the DL, and B. has a reputation for being a whiner (refusing to pitch over certain pitch counts) and a guy who couldn’t handle the pressure of a big city.
I think you make Adrian Cardenas the centerpiece of a Blanton deal. He’s our best hitting prospect, but is blocked at 2B by Utley.
As for Matt Cain, I’d line up our prospects and say pick 3 and they are yours and then we’ll throw in a 4th of our choosing. I guess the Giants thinking would be that they are SO far behind in terms of rebuilding that they would have to leverage one of their better players for multiple good players.
@ Duke
agreed the track record of dealing with beane is not good.
Out of the list you made up i like Young as my top choice and Bedard as my 2nd.
Just looking at the roster the phillies should go for it and trade the prospects because this team isn’t as young as everybody thinks. The team is in its prime right now for the most part. Burrell might leave after this season.
If we look back on this team 5-7 years from now and they didn’t win a championship that would be a shame that the organization didn’t get more players to go with a great core. Utley Howard and Rollins will all prob be the best Phillies at their positions in franchise history.
bball -
completely agree. we have a 3 year window here (including this season). Because I fully believe Howard will be gone after 2010.
That’s partially why I would like the Blanton pick-up, he would fit in that exact window.
Pete: Cardenas is one of our best prospects. I would not give up anything more than what we gave for Lhose and Lidle, whom I would consider comps for Blanton.
@ pete-
I agree that howard is gone after 2010–don’t think there is much question about even as far as the organization is concerned, esp with hamels needing to get paid…
tell me, though, how does a hamels, myers, moyer, blanton, kendrick line-up help this team win or even contend…or even if they got in to a playoff series, they are not any better off wioth blanton then the current rotation. I like the fact that he is not merely a “rent-a-pitcher” but I don’t see how this changes the rotation for the bettter…THE PHILLIES NEED A TOP OF THE ROTATION GUY, not a No. 4 pitcher..that is what Blanton is…
morty -
they are close, but blanton is better because A: he’s younger, B: while he is struggling this season, he pitched 230 IP last year, with a 3.95 ERA in the AL. That’s really good. He’s closer to that pitcher than the numbers he is putting up right now. and C: this is probably the most important in terms of what you will have to give back. You are getting Blanton for 3 years, those guys you mentioned were 1/2 year rentals.
sonido -
Blanton would be a HUGE upgrade over Eaton and is better than a #4, atleast a #3. But certainly not the top of the rotation guy. I would be comfortable going to playoffs with a Hamels, Blanton, Moyer, Kendrick rotation. Now, obviously EVERYONE would prefer a top of the rotation guy – but can you tell me one that is out there for the taking? You can want one all you want, but if theres no-one availiable, you cant do anything about it.
@ pete-
how can you make the statement that Blanton is closer to the pitcher he was last year then the pitcher he is this year? what evidence is there of that? I don’t buy that statement.
sonido -
this is why i would make that assumption
-230 IP last year is a bigger sample size that 127 IP this season
- His career ERA, a 760 IP sample size, 4.25, is closer to last year than this year
- He’s only 27, so is just hitting his “prime years”
- His current ERA is inflated by his last 5 starts. On June 12, his ERA was 4.23 after 15 starts.
- I think you would get an innings eater with about a 4.20 ERA and a good ground ball rate. That would make him the 3rd best pitcher on our team.
@Pete
The other side of that argument is that Oakland runs their pitchers into the ground and then disposes of them. Zito and Mulder may be examples of this. Getting an established innings eater isn’t necessarily a great thing considering how many innings have already eaten at their arm. If you can’t tell, I like playing devil’s advocate…
duke-
we like devil’s advocates here. keeps ideas flowing and conversation going.
# of career IP when traded by A’s – Blanton is currently at 760 IP
Harden – 541.6
Haren – 781.1
Zito – 1,430.1
Mulder – 1,003.1
Hudson – 1,240.2
@ duke
Agreed I think that the A’s do run their pitchers into the ground and then sell high. Zito and Mulder were workhorses for the As for about 5-6 years of 200+ innings of work. Joe Blanton hasn’t been exposed to that type of workload for as long as Zito and Mulder were b4 they were traded. I still think we would have about 2-3 years of solid service from him.
I was referring to the number of innings thrown last season by Blanton. It certainly could be the reason his numbers are down this year. I do understand he hasn’t been pounded for the number of years that Hudson, Mulder, and Zito were.
Touche Pete.
its done
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3494315
now can we waive Eaton, bring up Carrasco and put Myers in the pen?
best part of this trade is apparently gio gonzalez is taking blanton’s spot in the oakland rotation
On the one hand I like that the phillies made a move for a starter but on the other i think Gillick got taken by Beane. They gave up too much for him even tho Cardenas prob would never have played for the phils in the majors. I feel like they could have gotten Bedard or Young for not much more.
The funny thing about this deal is they traded away some of their already thin minor leagues and STILL need another ace to legitimately contend for a championship.
@ Adam
..And Gio will probably become a good pitcher just like Gavin Floyd…
Seems like a reasonable deal, though in typical B. Beane form, he got excellent value. Looks like Cardenas will be good, but Chase is there for the duration. Outman bugs me a bit…in a league where good young lefties are in short supply and bloom late, he seemed like a possible keeper.
I’m sorry they gave up Adrian Cardenas for a very husky 27-yr-old .500 pitcher. I hope Beane didn’t just husk our farm system. Who knows? At least Phils are goin’ for it, in their conservative way.
I agree seems to me that we got hosed a bit. Looks like Gillick gave up a bit much for a #3 guy. That said, it seems that he is replacing Eaton, which is definetly a upgrade. And he is only 27 with a couple years still under contract. We definetly need Myers to come back and pitch well now. Still dont have a #2.
I still think Howard is going to be around he a bit longer. We still have rights to him for a few more years, there is no urgency to trade him. Im not dead set on trading him this offseason like everyone else is. Say what you want about the strikeouts but we are talking about the premier power hitter in the game.
Just woke up from my nap… heard we got a husky .500 pitcher… ERA over 4.00… probably a #3 guy in the rotation… nothing spectacular but a real innings eater…
Holy cow! We got Jon Leiber back?
Just messing around. Overall, this does add stability to the rotation so I agree it’s an upgrade. Would be nice to see another ace though as we’ll need one to contend for a championship.
Any indication that Gillick has something else up his sleeve? If not, I guess the only options left are to hope Myers returns to form or we catch lightning in a bottle with a call-up of Happ or Carrasco.
Pete, it’s your turn to play devil’s advocate – can you write a quick post defending this trade? Boards everywhere seem to hate this trade, but you make a pretty good case for it in your comments.
My initial reaction was that it’s a decent potential for production trade, and that people seem to both want to win both NOW and 5 years now, and that Gillick made the choice to try to win NOW, you can’t be sure if 5 years from now those traded 3 are leading us to a title. Plus, you can only have so many players in your farm system and on your team, we have a couple years to recover from this and restock our system, right? And even if we didn’t make this trade and saved these guys and used them and our other top prospects for a King Felix, would that be worse? Or is this, as jjg put it, too “conservative”? What’s the storyline here?
bski, are you still out there? What’s your take?
Drolz, you mean cory litle! Actually, I really like this move. Didn’t rape our farm system. Around for a while. under 4.00 era in AL 2 of last 3 years. Ground ball pitcher. We have our number one and maybe carasco can become our no. 2. We’ll see…….
Can’t argue that it makes us better now, but we gave up too much. Everybody’s defense is that we had nowhere for Cardenas to play with Utley here. With that rationale, we’d of moved Howard a long time ago (which many were pushing for) while we had Thome. I think if we were willing to give Cardenas up, we could have done better.
Nonetheless, Blanton’s an upgrade and will contribute.