Note: Graphic will be updated to represent actual roster once it is announced.
As we wait for Charlie and Ruben to release the 25-man roster (update: It’s out) and perhaps let us know who the starters (and closers) will be, let’s take a look at the likely 25-man roster, and how it compares to last years’ bunch that won it all.
The colored boxes with years indicate where I think one year was better than the other – the blank ones indicate no change from ’08-’09.
A couple notes:
- Even though I have Martinez slotted in as the 4th starter, I think J.A. Happ will end up getting a start in this series due to the Rockies struggles against lefties and the fact that Happ threw a complete game shutout at them earlier in the year. I wouldn’t even be surprised if he started Game 3 so the Rockies didn’t see a RHP until Game 4.
- Some might argue my choice of Ibanez/Burrell as a wash. But based on Burrell’s 2nd half numbers in ’08 vs. Ibanez’ 2nd half numbers in ’09, there is very little difference. Obviously Ibanez vs. Burrell this year was no contest, but that is not what we are looking at here.
- The rotation is stronger this year with the additions of Lee and Martinez and the emergence of Happ. However, we had no idea how much our rotation would step up in the playoffs last year (8-3, 3.70 ERA, including 2 horrid starts by Moyer). The rotation will need to step up again this year.
- Lots of blue numbers around the bullpen. They followed a grueling campaign in ’08 by being severely overworked in the first couple months of the year because our starters weren’t ready to go. Then they all got injured. The only improvement is that our long man, whether it’s Happ or Pedro, is an established starter.
- The only upgrade I made to the line-up was Feliz, who has been better in run producing situations that he was last year. You could argue Werth is also an upgrade, but he was playing very well entering the playoffs last year, so I kept him a wash.
- The bench is also a downgrade. Our top bench guy, Francisco, is a better DH option than we had last year if we make it to the series, but Stairs has been dreadful, Dobbs is playing hurt
So those are my thoughts – What are yours?
Just a reminder: I will be taking some vacation time tomorrow and Thursday (thanks, MLB!) and will be doing a live blog for both games. Please join me and comment as we go along, these were very fun last year (here, and here). Also, for those at work, it will be another way to see what is going on. Just to note: Those live blogs are fun to re-read, especially the 2nd one which included the Victorino and Stairs homeruns. Really brings back the emotion. My favorite one?
11:22pm: Matt Stairs just needs to make solid contact with a fastball and let the 100mph gas do the work.
Sounds great. I’m dreading 2:37 tomorrow at work!
Surprisingly, Lee seems to be the only part of the starting puzzle that worries me. Over the last 7 games he is 2-4 with a 6.20 era – not to mention he hasn’t pitched in the playoffs before. Martinez can battle, as we saw a few games ago how he can pitch when the crowd gets behind him (130 pitches, 8 innings). We shoud throw Hamels game one to let Lee get his nerves settled…this is a big part of baseball.
Andrew –
A couple good points. I’ve found myself thinking how much more confident I’d be in this team with Roy Halladay starting Game 1. Certainly didn’t seem like that would be the case until Lee’s recent struggles. I still think we made the better trade based on who we would have had to give up for Halladay, but Lee is no sure thing right now.
To your 2nd point. I completely agree. I wrote a couple weeks ago that I thought Hamels should start Game 1 for the same reason. Calm Lee’s nerves a little for his 1st playoff start.
Pete – What about Kendrick or Bastardo? These two seem to be the lineup breakers to me.
We would need another lefty arm in the bullpen with Romero out besides Eyre. Bastardo gives you heat, but as we saw, he can be unpredictable and inaccurate – reason I would think playoffs are not for him.
Kendrick has been great recently and becomes that long inning right hander, obviously can’t choose him over Happ if that is what it came down to, but he could possibly be more valuable than Myers or Durbin…
Andrew-
Agree on Bastardo. I think he has a bright future as a lefty reliever, but he needs to work on his command and I feel like he would walk too many batters in the playoffs.
On Kendrick: He’s certainly pitched better. Since returning on 9/13, he pitched 21 innings giving up 21 hits and striking out 14. Both his H/9 and K/9 rates are improved, but over a small sample. I personally wouldn’t put him on the roster because I think he is best served as a long-man and we have Happ or Martinez for that role. That being said, if they replace Durbin with him, I can’t really argue, as I don’t trust Durbin all that much anyway. I hope his improved play makes him trade-able in the off-season.
2:37 p.m., Wednesday, October 6, 2009: The first time in my life that being unemployed can ever count as a positive.
Pete, I totally agree with you on Happ starting game three. I don’t know how he doesn’t start that game. He dominated the Rockies this season.
You think there’s any chance of Park making the roster for the NLCS if he’s able to pitch by then? He was a damn good reliever this season.
Phillies.com confirms that lee is pitching Game 1.
Re: Cliff Lee
I actually like this move. At first I was leaning towards Hamels, but Lee’s getting a full five days rest. The last two games he had on five days were CGs and he gave up only one ER combined.
Charlie has proven we should trust his judgement on this kind of stuff, so while I would have gone with Hamels, you can’t really argue with Lee.
I think Happ’s gotta get the Game 3 start.
I don’t know who gets game 3 and 4. Neither Pedro or Blanton have faced the Rockies this year and neither of them have really faced any Rockies more than a couple of times in their career (Except for Pedro and Giambi).
I thinnk you rest Pedro, he’s old. Start Blanton.
Wow-
According to David Murphy: Condrey, Walker and Bruntlett are off the roster, and Cairo, Bastardo and Kendrick are on.
Most surprised about Bastardo, who I thought had no shot.
I guess this is good news….
A little off topic, anybody catching this Tigers/Twins playoff?? Extra innings is a hell of a way to close out an extra game.
Well, that was an incredible game as well Chris McC.
Also, outside of baseball, the Flyers and Capitals had an unbelievable game today. Of course, the outcome was the Flyers. Flyers 6 Capitals 5 in OT.
The Sixers won their preseason game against the Raptors 107-98!
All in all, a great day for Philadelphia Sports and GO PHILLIES!!
If I was a Flyers fan, I’d be pretty excited right now.
That Flyers game was a hell of a finish. I’m still waiting with anticipation for Pronger to break someone in half!