Once again, we have more proof that the entire Phillies team reads this blog regularly. The Phils took my advice and took advantage (quickly) of weak schedule, sweeping the D-Backs while the Marlins lost 2 of 3 to the Astros, giving us a 6 1/2 game lead. In possibly their most dominant series of the year, the Phils outscored the Snakes 25-5 en route to the sweep.
2009: 69-49
2008: 64-54
2007: 63-55
Player(s) of the Series: Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth (10 for 25, 10 runs, 6 HR, 13 RBI)
Goats of the Series: n/a
Gotta be real quick here, as I am going on vacation in about an hour, and have some work-stuff I have to finish up
A note on Werth and Victorino
Let’s talk about Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino for a moment. These are 2 players that anybody could have had a couple years ago, and right now they are all-stars, having career years, in the middle of a contender’s line-up. Werth, after his outburst this week, is on pace for 39 HR and 105 RBI. Unlike players that usually put those kind of numbers up, he is an excellent base runner and above average fielder. He also makes the pitcher work more than anyone in baseball, leading the major leagues in pitches seen per at bat with 4.52. Victorino would be on the field even if he hit .240 because he is such a tremendous center fielder. I can honestly say, in my couple decades watching baseball, I’ve never seen anyone cover as much ground as quickly as he does. But he doesn’t hit .240. He’s hitting .315, 6th in the NL. He’s 2nd in the NL in 3B, 6th in the NL in 2B, and his .861 OPS is 3rd in all of baseball among center fielders. After Johan Santana (and maybe Josh Hamilton), potentially the best Rule 5 draftee of all-time.
A note on Cliff Lee
He’s really, really good.
Series Preview: Phillies at New York Mets
Hearing the Mets fans complain about their injuries last year when they didn’t have more people injured than the average team was just white noise. This year? They have a legit complaint. Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado seem to pretty much be out for the season with mysterious injuries that won’t get any better. David Wright just got pegged in the head and probably thinks he’s on the Yankees. Starters John Maine, Jon Niese and Fernando Nieve are all out, as is set-up man JJ Putz. They are 14 1/2 games out and no longer a threat to the division, but that doesn’t mean they will roll over in our upcoming 4-game set.
Friday: Hamels vs. RHP Mike Pelfrey (8-8, 4.75 ERA)
Saturday: Happ vs. RHP Tim Redding (1-4, 6.53 ERA)
Sunday: Martinez vs. LHP Oliver Perez (3-3, 6.06 ERA)
Monday: Lee vs. RHP Bobby Parnell (3-5, 4.75 ERA)
Three Questions for the Series…
- Will the Phillies underestimate the seriously depleted Mets?
- How will Pedro pitch in his return to New York?
- Can the Phillies score runs with home runs in the massive Citi Field?
Prediction
Personally I think we should win all 4 of these games, but a 4-game sweep against anyone is tough. I predict one of the Phillie-killers Redding or Perez will pitch well and beat us, but we should take the other 3 unless Hamels slips up tonight. I think that question #3 is an important one because Citi Field is probably the toughest place in baseball to hit a HR and the D-Backs series just reiterated how much we rely on that.
This isn’t the intense series with serious playoff implications that it looks like it would be when the schedule came out. However, it is still the stinkin’ Mets, and I still want to crush them while they are down, you can bet they’d do the same to us.
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Pete,
Roberto Clemente was a Rule 5 draftee and he’s inarguably the best of them all in my book.
I don’t know how many guys were selected twice in the Rule 5 draft, but I’ve got to imagine that Victorino is the best of that bunch.
As far as this series against the Mets, I’m glad to see Charlie’s comments about not taking them lightly. Now that the bats have gotten hot, we are tallying some wins and creating some space. By keeping the focus, we can put it to another struggling team and start to put the division away.
I’m sure I’ve said this before, but for as much as I hate the Mets, I really like their TV broadcast team. Gary Cohen, Keith Hernandez, and Ron Darling are knowlegeable, insightful, informative, fair, balanced, up front, don’t back away from sensitive issues, speak their minds, and work well together.
The other day I read an article that said we got Victorino for $50,000. We tried giving him back for $25,000. They rejected our offer, we got “stuck” with him. I believe the other team was the Dodgers but I’m not sure. I wish I could remember where I read this. I’m not sure how the Rule 5 draft works so hopefully I am thinking of the correct person. Could someone explain it to me?
Drew,
You must have read it in Bill Conlin’s column yesterday. Here is what you’re looking for:
“Shane cost GM Ed Wade and minor league boss Mike Arbuckle all of $50,000 when they claimed him from the Dodgers in the 2004 Rule 5 draft. When the Phillies tried to return him and get $25,000 back, the Dodgers politely declined. They had already taken Shane back once after the Padres claimed him in 2003 and said, “Never mind.”
As for the Rule 5 draft, here’s an explanation of it from baseballamerica.com.
Thanks for the link and for finding the article I spoke of bski. Didn’t we get Werth through Rule 5 from the Dodgers too? What a heist.
As a Phils fan stuck in NYC, I agree that Mets broadcasters are enjoyable. I always learn something about the game when I listen to them.
Drew,
Jayson Werth was a free agent that we signed in the winter of 2006. He was traded from Baltimore, who drafted him, to Toronto and then from Toronto to LA before he became a free agent, but to my knowledge he was never a Rule 5 draftee.
I’ll be going up to see the Phils for the monday game at 1pm. I’m looking forward to checking out the new stadium. It’s got to be better than the dump they had before. AND I get to see Lee start!
I know they have that Jackie Robinson Rotunda that I want to see. Any idea how much time I should leave myself for that before the game? For anyone who’s been to their stadium before, any recommendations for food and views to check out?
I’m looking forward to seeing the miserable mets. Seeing them play this bad is almost as fun as seeing the Phillies play as well as they are. We’re only one game behind the Dodgers so home field advantage is certainly within reach.
I’m really happy with how they’ve played this season despite some infuriating slumps. All in all they’ve put themselves in a really good position to win the bulpen. Their starters are letting the previously overworked bulpen rest. Heading into the playoffs they are in good shape. The only concern is to figure out the closer position but luckily they’ve built enough of a division lead that they can afford to “try out” a few options without worrying about losing too much.
Thanks for the clarification bski. I knew he had some kind of connection to the Dodgers.
I agree on the Met’s broadcasting team…I hate that team more than any other but that broadcasting team is the least biased of any in baseball and I have heard most of them because I live in Florida and have the Direc TV package and they almost never give me the Phillies announcers….
Ever since someone wrote that he’d better quit big-timin’ it, Mickey Mantl, check that, Jayson Werth has been ON FIRE!! (Even more proof, Pete, that nearly everbody reads ReclinerGM.) But it’s no wonder: his father led Div I in catches as an Illinois State wide receiver in ‘76; his mother was an Olympic Trials long jumper and sprinter – them’s good genes.
Apropos of tonight’s locale: ”Stump The Fans” - Home Edition: Who was the first batter to step to the plate at brand new Shea Stadium in 1964?
If you guessed Jayson Werth’s grandpop, Dick “Ducky” Schofield (of the Pittsburgh Pirates), you are correct, most astutely. *Tonight’s winner gets a case of Schaeffer Beer found recently under a loading dock in Brooklyn (apparently no twist caps were on the scene at the time of distribution; winner should bring opener along). Congratulations! And save one for Wheels!
Recently finished series was Varsity vs. JV, MLB style. A real show of talent backed by will, and a 3-game whompin’! Table set by Pedro, peeved server J-Me had his back up and his throws down and around. “Mr. Lee, Mr. Lee, ooh, Mr. Lee.” Joe Bob wasn’t especially sharp but he kept ball in park, didn’t walk anybody – - coulda been had by a stronger line-up; big run support (Francisco, Werth, Howard) was the story of last one.
2-2 split is my guess for the long weekend on outskirts of ”Gotham” – -name was first used in reference to Manhattan by Washington Irving; in Middle Ages, Gotham or ‘Gotam’ was the name of an often-riduculed town in England whose residents had a reputation for madness (or sly invention).
spelling corrections: #11 – everybody, #13 - ridiculed.
Ryan Howard, intentional base on balls:
‘06 37
‘07 35
‘08 17
‘09 3
Are teams/managers now not as intimidated by “The Big Man” in the box? Does Ibanez’ presence behind him in the lineup account for a change in strategy? Howard’s always been a high KO batter; his 147 in that category is the continuing of a regularity. The wide variance (and 4 season declination) in above numbers can’t be all coincidence; seems to indicate a less fearful mindset and pitching approach to the powerful slugger.
Quite a contrast between the starts of Happ and Hamels, don’t you think? I’m not talking about their lines either, as Happ didn’t cruise last night. Happ surrendered 8 hits and 2 walks, while only striking out 1 (Redding, so no big deal there) while throwing 118 pitches over 7 innings, which really isn’t that different from the 10 hits and no walks, along with 6 strikeouts, that Hamels yielded on 92 pitches in his 5 innings on Friday. No, the difference is the end result——1 run allowed by Happ in his 7 innings vs. 4 runs allowed by Hamels in his 5 innings——and how that happened.
Hamels’ stuff certainly seems to be there. His velocity is good. It’s his command that is lacking. I mean, he threw a bunch of pitches down the middle, belt-high and every one of them was hammered. Obviously that is a problem, but the bigger concern for me is why he continues to throw those fat pitches. This is where watching Happ comes in.
Granted, Happ didn’t throw a dozen pitches down the pipe. He wasn’t at his sharpest though and he did struggle. There were several pitches he thought were strikes that were called balls and he did make some mistakes. Watching Happ’s body language, you could see that there were numerous times he was upset, either with himself or with the home plate umpire. The key was that he maintained his composure. You could almost see him telling himself to let it go, to focus on the next hitter, and to get out of the inning, which is exactly what he did over and over again.
Happ’s self-control stands in stark contrast to Hamels’ unraveling. This year, Hamels has been going beyond visibly upset and Friday night was more of the same, requiring repeated visits from Ruiz, Dubee, and even Utley in an attempt to calm him down, all to no avail. This has been Hamels’ undoing this season. He just can’t let things go and get himself back under control. He is very much aware of it, as I have read numerous quotes from him lamenting the fact that his frustration is adversely affecting him and that he just can’t seem to regain his composure.
Maybe it’s that this is the first time that Hamels is really struggling. It used to be that pitchers would spend years in the minors growing, maturing, and learning to deal with tough times before they made it to the bigs. Now, phenoms like Hamels blow everybody away at every level in the minors and are fast-tracked to the majors. Because of that, Hamels ends up having to work through his difficulties on a much higher level with much higher expectations and in a much less forgiving environment, all of which makes it a much more daunting process. Baseball is a very humbling game and if you can’t handle it mentally, it will chew you up.
None of that is to make excuses for Hamels. The cream rises to the top and we’ll see where he ends up. I just thought that watching Happ handle his struggles last night after watching Hamels again be unable to deal with his on Friday clearly illustrated the reason why the former is having a fantastic rookie season, while the latter appears having one he’d much rather forget.
‘Pitch count’ win. Mail your ‘thank you’ cards to Jerry Manuel, c/o Dope On The Spot, Omar Minaya Village, Flushing Meadows, NY. 5 innings of in-command 1-hit pitching and all-important goose eggs. Fade to shot of dugout interplay showing Mets, including a just-removed Redding, gloating. Uh, try waiting another 4, then self-congratulate. Not another innning or 2 in that arm? Who says? TR, JM, pitching coach Dan Warthen, agent, union contract, trainers, doctors, message therapist, batboy, the ghost of Jay Hook? Working title of in-progress movie: “The Little Apple Corps.” 80 pitches blockade: active arms in a useless sling.
On other side, Happ did his impressive duty once more, aided by 2 Rollins’ fielding sparks.
Like the spaciousness of Citi Field. Makes for more baseball, less HR Derby.
I wonder if Happ has a red Corvette and a Playboy model-wife and a ‘top of the city’ condo and a team-provided chiropractor.
2 branches of Hamels’ geneological tree:
- http://fleersticker.blogspot.com/2008/07/legend-of-lowell-palmer-continues-to.html
- http://www.astrosdaily.com/players/obits/Belinsky-Bo.html
correction: genealogical
There’s really no way to prove this, but I really think getting Lee has messed Hamels up even more. I really don’t think Amaro thought this through – what’s the point of trying to make a 1-2 punch with if Hamels doesn’t want to be part of a 1-2 punch. He wants to be the ace of the staff. What was Amaro thinking, that Lee will push Hamels to be better? Not many people are wired like that. This is something that I think Gillick was very well aware of – there’s a reason Gillick liked to get to know players before bringing them on board, or messing around with their roles.
So I say let’s trade Hamels. Again, he clearly wants to be the #1 of a team, so let’s make it happen. I’m sure we could get a lot for him; hell, maybe we could even get Roy Halladay for him (the ultimate Han Solo-type mercenary rental pitcher). Lee is our ace now, sorry Cole. Thanks for the World Championship, we don’t do it without you. I totally understand that you don’t wanna be #2; I know that’s Brett’s thing, not yours.
But I have to admit, I’m very partial to our championship team from last year, I think everyone should’ve been brought back (at reasonable prices). I mean, that freakin’ team did it! On paper, they didn’t scream “CHAMPIONSHIP ROSTER!” at you, but they did it. There’s really nothing else to say; the Giants fans don’t have anything to say to me. I just really wanted to give everyone a second chance.
Man, I’m getting a little upset just thinking about this, so screw it, let’s see if I can curse Amaro with a prediction: Ruben, you are going to be the next Billy King!!! You’re a fantasy GM just like he was. You don’t realize that you’re messing around with player’s lives, with their livelihoods, and with their families – you’re messing around with someone’s son, someone’s father, or someone’s brother – and because you don’t realize these things you’re just not going to win. Cliff Lee is your Dikembe Mutombo! DIKEMBE MUTOMBO, DIKEMBE MUTOMBO!!!
Zack: you’re overthinking. i’ll leave it at that. remember competition is a vital element of the game.
I was checking in on the Phillies’ minor league teams and I noticed Michael Taylor hadn’t played since the 15th and I couldn’t find out anything about him being injured. Anyone know what’s up with him?
jurnee16,
Taylor has been out with an oblique injury. According to phuturephillies.com from Friday, he was not expected to be back until after the weekend, although they did not have anything more definitive about at what point this week he might be ready.
Maybe Bruntlett is trying to keep Utley on the bench. I mean, a 3-hit game and an unassisted triple play. Who woulda thunk it?
I gotta figure that all the while Jamie Moyer was warming up in the bottom of the 3rd he had to be thinking, “Explain to me again why I was bumped from the rotation to make room for Pedro.”
At least Pedro settled in some and surprisingly made it through 6 innings of what turned out to be an uncomfortable win. Thankfully the offense stepped up on the right day.
Now, if Cliff Lee is Cliff Lee tomorrow, we should get out of NY with a nice 3-1 series win and be 6-1 heading into Pittsburgh.
Of course, J-ME was saying that (or a nearby SENTIMENT) – his nature. Fact is, Phils have won every game in which Pedro has started … good kharma, supportive comraderie. “Now go back to grumbling about your reasonable fate, you rich old coot. We’ll ring when you’re needed.” Footnote: Victorino cost Martinez 1 base (or maybe 2) by Mayor-ing the non-lodged ball into a HR.
Greatly missed Richie Ashburn’s “hard to believe, Harry” yesterday
when radio man Scott Franzke went apeshit (or ‘Bobby Thompson’) on game-ending triple play, one which involved serendipity, not greatness … hit-and-run maneuvering/repositioning, luck of line drive placement & trajectory, situational awareness and a dollup of athletic ability. These new wave broadcasting homers/oral thespians/rat-a-tat-tatters, including Sixers’ histrionically-modulating mouthpiece,
who continually overhype action do a disservice. At the very least, they misrepresent and annoy. “IG WUH DAH LAH!!!! OHHH MY!!”
Really? I missed the whole thing, as I was only able to watch the first 7 innings yesterday and couldn’t follow the last 2 innings on the radio either.
Maybe it’s just Phils’ announcers named Scott, because Scott Graham used to routinely go bananas over any play that was even a tick above ordinary.
Also, I didn’t find out until this morning that, through his sloppy play, Bruntlett played a large part in setting up his triple-play opportunity. I usually check the play-by-play on espn.com to follow what I missed from a game, but I didn’t last night.
Zack,
RE #21, I don’t see the Hamels situation the same way you do. I think that, if anything, Hamels forced Amaro to go out and get a #1 starter precisely because he turned out not to be one this season.
Had Hamels continued to be the ace he was down the stretch and through the playoffs last year, maybe Amaro would have been more inclined to make a “Gillickball” move and look to aquire a Blanton-type pitcher to fill in the rotation, rather than even consider trading away a big chunk of the farm for Halladay or give up what he did for Lee. Since Hamels did not step into the #1 spot that was unquestionably reserved for him, Amaro had no choice.
Also, remember all those times that Manuel was asked about potentially picking up another starter? What was his response every time? Manuel repeatedly stated the team’s need, and his desire, for “a horse”. Not only was that a message to Amaro that he felt that was what we needed if we wanted to give ourselves the best chance to repeat, I saw it as also being a message to his pitchers that none of them fit the bill. If I’m Hamels and I see myself as the ace of the staff, that’s how I would take it anyway. In my eyes, Manuel’s double message issued a challenge and Hamels did not step up, so what was Amaro supposed to do? If the guys you have aren’t giving you what you need, then you’ve got to go out and get it from somewhere.
Why Hamels has not stepped up is another matter. I am now less inclined to believe that arm fatigue from last year is a factor. It might have been earlier this season but, from what I can see, not now. He also had some rough luck early on, getting nailed by Fielder’s liner and turning his ankle, but he was pitching better in May than he is right now, so I don’t know how much those things have played into his struggles either.
It seems to me that Hamels has lost his confidence and composure, which are caught up in a chicken-and-egg argument with his command over which one is responsible for the other. I’m going to say that either the league has caught up to Hamels or that he did not work hard enough in the off season to stay ahead of it. One way or the other, he is not where he was and he has been unable to regain the advantage over the hitters that he had last year during the course of this season.
For me, next year will go a long way toward revealing just what we have in Hamels. It may even determine what kind of career he ends up having. Having Lee should not have any bearing on the type of pitcher Hamels turrns out to be. If it turns out to be detrimental, then Hamels does not have the mental makeup to be the #1 we thought he would become, and we’re better off finding that out now while he’s under a reasonable, short-term contract. However it plays itself out, it’s on Hamels. He will determine the type of pitcher he is. I can’t see blaming Amaro for it.
Should apply the Lamaze ’breathing & relaxation’ techniques next time he’s got RISP.
His coming undone when umps or batted balls go against his expectant grain is an indicator of a weakened psychology this season, whatever its genesis. Then, too, maybe the frailty IS AND HAS BEEN a natural component and was veiled by his carpet ride of success until now.
Lee acquisition was team-smart but Hamels-testing as Cole’s vanity is repulsed by “smudges” to his ’spiffy’ status.
Zack & bski: both rippin’ reads.
jjg,
About #15, where you posted Howard’s declining IBB numbers, I’d agree that it is not a coincidence. I’m not sure if it is indicative of a less fearful approach being taken by opposing pitchers though.
Howard is still very dangerous (as evidenced by his home runs, 3-run and 2-run shots today) and feared. I think it has more to do with the pitchers knowing that Howard chases balls out of the stike zone in any count and in any situation. They still fear him, it’s just that he makes it easier for them to avoid him and get him out on bad balls rather than having to intentionally walk him. He’s his own worst enemy in that department.
Funny you should say that, bski. While watching him bat today, thought to myself I’d much rather pitch to him and all of his holes (with a steady diet of offspeed stuff) than an Utley or a Victorino, though his swats are impressive. Pitchers, no doubt, offer with caution, but stats say opposing managers are less awed – or dumber than before.
BTW, I saw in the Daily News where Fred Wilpon said that Omar Minaya will remain the Mets’ GM in 2010. Subsequently, Minaya said that if he is back, then Jerry Manuel will be back as well.
That’s OK by me, as we’ve done pretty well since they’ve been at the helm of the Mets.
When can Cole expect his 2-week vacation? Give old man Moyer his starts, let’s go!
‘10 Mets will be better with return of injured regulars but they still need help, pitching and otherwise. And Bernie Madoff’s catastrophic swindle dented friend Fred Wilpon bigtime, changed Mets to skinflints on the market; thus, no exit for already-contracted for ‘10 GM Minaya, stasis which flies in the face of disappointing results of last 3 years. And Manuel will get another shot next Spring, courtesy of his buddy.
reason why Ryan Howard is and still is to be feared: when pitchers make mistakes with Utley, Victorino, any schmuck etc. they hit for extra bases. when pitchers make a mistake with Howard, it leaves the park. that simple. it hasnt changed despite whetever numbers you wanna put up. Sure he overswings, sir-K-a-lot and cant stop chasing. it still doesnt change the fact that he can still do it(crush ‘em) with that ridiculous bat speed. So if I’m a 4 time Cy Young winner about to deliver a 3-2 pitch to Howard, know that I will swallow my pride and humbly throw an outside pitch. 1 out of 3 he will hit my pitch, but i know that IF he hits it, its not dropping in the infield. Howard is the ultimate gamble; throw at your own risk – that hasnt changed however less effective he may seem. thats what makes Ryan Howard an asset.
i highly doubt that fear is dwindled.
A Cy Young pitcher with his best stuff drools at Howard draggin’ his undisciplined, pointin’ lumber to the plate. Wicked junk & fastballs out of the zone. He’ll be sittin in 5 or 6 pitches, max. His triple digit RBIs to date aren’t that impressive in light of number of opportunities.
jjg: while I agree with your stances on some players (I’m not a fan of “J-ME” either), I think you’re selling Howard short by more than a little. If it’s that easy to get Howard out, then a lot of pitchers have been making a lot of mistakes over his career, because he always winds up among the leaders in all of baseball in homers and RBI at the end of the year. But just to humor you, here are Howard’s numbers against *actual* Cy Young award winners: Lincecum 3-13 (but 2 HR), Peavy 3-9, Webb 4-15 (1 HR), Carpenter 1-3 (1 HR), Glavine 7-27 (2 HR), Pedro 6-16 (2 HR), Smoltz 4-10 (1 HR), Maddux 4-12 (1 HR), Lee 1-3, Sabathia 3-7, Santana 7-23 (3 HR), Colon 2-2, Zito 0-5, Clemens 1-6, Gagne 0-1. By my math, that’s 46-152 (.303) with 13 HR. I guess Howard was lucky they didn’t always have their best stuff when they faced him …
Purely for the sake of accuracy, Howard is also 0-3 against Randy Johnson, which makes him 46-155 (0.297)
excellent research Trillo Fan.
Howard is a unique feast or famine type player. More so on both ends than nearly any player in history.
He is probably the 3rd or 4th best overall player on the team, but to think that we would be where we are without him just isn’t correct.
The goal of baseball is to score runs, and regardless of chances, 135+ RBI a year for 3 going on 4 straight seasons has not been done many times in the 100+ year of the game. He can be frustrating, but his run production is of historical proportions.
bski: thank s for the addition. I also didn’t look too closely to see if Howard had any at bats against Pat Hentgen (probably the most obscure Cy Young winner in the last 15-20 years) or some others before 1995.
Pete: funny, Howard succeeded another feast-or-famine type player in Thome, but Howard is even more extreme (more strikeouts and more homers). I go back and forth when discussing with fellow Phillie fans whether someone like Youkilis would be just as effective in Howard’s spot (higher average and better eye, but lower power). Then again, Youkilis is himself an all-star, and there really aren’t that many first basemen around baseball that you could argue would be better than Howard in the Phillies’ lineup (fellow MVPs Pujols and Morneau, maybe Teixeira, maybe Youkilis — it’s a short list).
Trillo Fan,
Didn’t mean to be come across quite so curt. Nice work by you.
I actually double checked because I thought that Howard must have had some ABs against Halladay. Surprisingly, he does not, but I ended up coming across his record against Johnson in the process.
Please ingnore the extraneous “be” in the opening sentence of the previous post. Thanks.
I’m just old enough to remember how frustrated people would get with Schmidt early in his prime…
But I think Howard is an even more frustrating star.
Trillo Fan, Credit to you for your close reading and alertness to the critical prepositional phrase “with his best stuff”. Your listing of ‘Howard vs. Cy Young pitchers’ stats was interesting and supports, on its face, the continuing overinflation of a Grade B/B+ baseball player (Baseball-Reference.com age 28 comparables to Howard: Cecil Fielder, Norm Cash, Tony Clark, Mo Vaughn, David Ortiz, Carlos Delgado, Fred McGriff, Ryan Klesko, Richie Sexson, Jason Bay). But consider the ages during 2005 (Howard’s first full season) of the following referenced, combating pitchers and the year of their last Cy Young Award:
Maddux 39 1995
Glavine 39 1998
Smoltz 38 1996
Johnson 40 2002
Clemens 42 2004
Martinez 33 2000
In their honor, let’s rename the mound “Rocking Chair Mountain”. All well past primes. Their “best stuff” at Howard? – hardly. Today’s Howard vs. above pitchers in their primes: his .297 average would very likely sink. My basic point – premier pitcher, present tense, eats him alive, 3 times out of 4 (and that’s being generous to Howard).
As for his always being near top in HRs & RBIs – no doubt about that, but he bats 4th, swings from his heels without diminished playing time consequence of Ks, is favored with scads of baserunners and plays in the cushy confines of CBP. Most everyday clean-up hitters in this era approach 35 & 110, or they’re not holding up their end.
Also, his ‘09 1st baseman fielding pct. of .990 is under the league avg. of .994 – even in this, his trimmed-down, oft-mentioned ‘glove renaissance’ season.
Ryan Howard: ” The Big Overpaid Man” … as more than chicks dig the long ball, evidence bears out.
jjg: Let’s humor you and leave out the “geezer gang” of over-the-hill Cy Young winners. That still leaves Lincecum, Peavy, Webb, Carpenter, Lee, Sabathia, Santana, Zito, and Gagne — against whom Howard is 24-81 (.296) with 7 HR. That doesn’t count other premier pitchers like Hudson (10-31, 3 HR), Oswalt (8-17, 2 HR), and Beckett (4-13, 1 HR) who have not won CYAs but have been at or near their primes when facing Howard. I understand the argument you’re trying to make, but the numbers don’t bear them out. Howard in his career has done just fine against premier pitchers. If you want to criticize him, it’s easier to point to his numbers against mediocre pitchers like Tim Redding (3-26, 10 K’s).
And your statement that “Most everyday clean-up hitters in this era approach 35 & 110″ is even less in line with the facts. Now, you gave yourself an out by saying “approach,” but I think it’s fair to say that if you think an “average” clean-up hitter “approaches” 35-110, then a “good” clean-up hitter consistently reaches 35-110? Well, in the 2006-2008 time period (Howard’s years as a full-time player), a 35-110 season has been done 26 times. Only 5 players have done it twice out of three years: Pujols, Howard, Delgado, and the steroids-clouded ARod and Ortiz. Only one player has done it all three years: Howard. And Howard didn’t just surpass those standards, he obliterated them (45-135 each year). But even if we lower those standards to the more pedestrian 35-110, Howard stands alone. If you want to criticize Howard, HR-RBI production is not the way to do it.
From my point of view, Howard is only overpaid in the sense that every baseball player is overpaid …
Trillo Fan, OK, I concede, he’s done OK against “the goldens” according
to surface research - higher than his career batting average, about the same HR to AB ratio. What might be more enlightening about his actual batting skill and proficiency, especially as it relates to his contemporaries, would be seasonal and career numbers indicating average w/RISP [easy enough to locate], ratio of runners batted in to runners stranded, ratio of Ks to contact ABs, last out of innings, etc., relative to other sluggers and crunched to include exclusive ’innings 7, 8 & 9′ production categories. No time for further mining though.
As for Howard’s “oblitera[tive]” recent campaigns (‘06-’08), keep in mind, they’ve also included 45 spirit-depletive errors along with 579
drooping Ks in drive to achieve team goals.
Criticism for his HR & RBI production is fair within the framework of post-season play, where ‘big money’ players ostensibly earn their money. 76 PA/64 AB/4 HR/10 RBI/.266/23 K/32 TB.
Mr. October, he’s not.
Howard summation: He ain’t bad but he ain’t great. And he’s lucky he plays in the bangball era, w/smaller strike zone, facing ”temperate” pitchers.
trillo fan-
jjg (and Pete) – I know from past lurking on the site that it is well nigh impossible to move jjg from his strongly-held, and usually eloquently-expressed, opinions. I’ll stop here, knowing that I’ve countered (with numbers) jjg’s original contentions that (a) Howard is an easy out against any elite pitcher and (b) Howard’s HR-RBI numbers are only slightly better than expected for any good cleanup hitter. The debate has morphed from two strong, simple, easily-checked assertions to multiple subtle, less-easily-checked assertions. No, jjg, I don’t know how Howard does, compared to the league norm, with runners in scoring position against above-average pitchers from the 7th inning on in playoff games. But I suspect if someone came up with the number and it happened to be a good one, you’d surely come up with something else.
But back to basics: Howard has three straight 45-135 seasons. It’s not always fair to compare across eras, but only three players in history have done that: Ruth, Griffey, and the steroids-tainted Sosa. If you expand the list to include players who have had three such seasons at any point in their careers, the list (as far as I can tell in my quick check on things) only expands by two more steroids-tainted players, ARod and Manny. If Howard is clean (and there is no reason to think he isn’t, given that the bulk of his career has taken place with strict[er] testing), his accomplishments are truly notable and rare, standing with the best untainted player of his generation (Griffey).
Trillo Fan, Both of your translations of my contentions (one primary, one subsequent) - items (a) & (b) of 1st paragraph - contain some inaccuracy, however, you’ve made your points with verve and sufficient clarity and I, hereby, acknowledge your higher opinion of Ryan Howard, into perpetuity.