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	<title>Comments on: Phils dominate Snakes, get ready for the &#8220;Mets&#8221;</title>
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	<link>http://www.reclinergm.com/phils-dominate-snakes-get-ready-for-the-mets/</link>
	<description>Philly sports blog for diehard Sixers &#38; Phillies fans</description>
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		<title>By: jjg</title>
		<link>http://www.reclinergm.com/phils-dominate-snakes-get-ready-for-the-mets/#comment-19602</link>
		<dc:creator>jjg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2009 14:39:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=6706#comment-19602</guid>
		<description>Trillo Fan,  Both of your translations of my contentions (one primary, one subsequent) - items (a) &amp; (b) of 1st paragraph - contain some inaccuracy, however, you&#039;ve made &lt;em&gt;your&lt;/em&gt; points with verve and sufficient clarity and I, hereby, acknowledge your higher opinion of Ryan Howard, into perpetuity.     </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Trillo Fan,  Both of your translations of my contentions (one primary, one subsequent) - items (a) &amp; (b) of 1st paragraph - contain some inaccuracy, however, you&#8217;ve made <em>your</em> points with verve and sufficient clarity and I, hereby, acknowledge your higher opinion of Ryan Howard, into perpetuity.     </p>
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		<title>By: Trillo Fan</title>
		<link>http://www.reclinergm.com/phils-dominate-snakes-get-ready-for-the-mets/#comment-19592</link>
		<dc:creator>Trillo Fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2009 03:16:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=6706#comment-19592</guid>
		<description>&lt;strong&gt;jjg &lt;/strong&gt;(and &lt;strong&gt;Pete&lt;/strong&gt;) - I know from past lurking on the site that it is well nigh impossible to move &lt;strong&gt;jjg &lt;/strong&gt;from his strongly-held, and usually eloquently-expressed, opinions.  I&#039;ll stop here, knowing that I&#039;ve countered (with numbers) &lt;strong&gt;jjg&lt;/strong&gt;&#039;s original contentions that (a) Howard is an easy out against any elite pitcher and (b) Howard&#039;s HR-RBI numbers are only slightly better than expected for any good cleanup hitter.   The debate has morphed from two strong, simple, easily-checked assertions to multiple subtle, less-easily-checked assertions.  No, &lt;strong&gt;jjg&lt;/strong&gt;, I don&#039;t know how Howard does, compared to the league norm, with runners in scoring position against above-average pitchers from the 7th inning on in playoff games.  But I suspect if someone came up with the number and it happened to be a good one, you&#039;d surely come up with something else.

But back to basics:  Howard has three straight 45-135 seasons.  It&#039;s not always fair to compare across eras, but only three players in &lt;em&gt;history&lt;/em&gt; have done that:  Ruth, Griffey, and the steroids-tainted Sosa.  If you expand the list to include players who have had three such seasons at &lt;em&gt;any &lt;/em&gt;point in their &lt;em&gt;careers&lt;/em&gt;, the list (as far as I can tell in my quick check on things) only expands by two more steroids-tainted players, ARod and Manny.   If Howard is clean (and there is no reason to think he isn&#039;t, given that the bulk of his career has taken place with strict[er] testing), his accomplishments are truly notable and rare, standing with the best untainted player of his generation (Griffey).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>jjg </strong>(and <strong>Pete</strong>) &#8211; I know from past lurking on the site that it is well nigh impossible to move <strong>jjg </strong>from his strongly-held, and usually eloquently-expressed, opinions.  I&#8217;ll stop here, knowing that I&#8217;ve countered (with numbers) <strong>jjg</strong>&#8216;s original contentions that (a) Howard is an easy out against any elite pitcher and (b) Howard&#8217;s HR-RBI numbers are only slightly better than expected for any good cleanup hitter.   The debate has morphed from two strong, simple, easily-checked assertions to multiple subtle, less-easily-checked assertions.  No, <strong>jjg</strong>, I don&#8217;t know how Howard does, compared to the league norm, with runners in scoring position against above-average pitchers from the 7th inning on in playoff games.  But I suspect if someone came up with the number and it happened to be a good one, you&#8217;d surely come up with something else.</p>
<p>But back to basics:  Howard has three straight 45-135 seasons.  It&#8217;s not always fair to compare across eras, but only three players in <em>history</em> have done that:  Ruth, Griffey, and the steroids-tainted Sosa.  If you expand the list to include players who have had three such seasons at <em>any </em>point in their <em>careers</em>, the list (as far as I can tell in my quick check on things) only expands by two more steroids-tainted players, ARod and Manny.   If Howard is clean (and there is no reason to think he isn&#8217;t, given that the bulk of his career has taken place with strict[er] testing), his accomplishments are truly notable and rare, standing with the best untainted player of his generation (Griffey).</p>
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		<title>By: Pete</title>
		<link>http://www.reclinergm.com/phils-dominate-snakes-get-ready-for-the-mets/#comment-19579</link>
		<dc:creator>Pete</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2009 00:40:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=6706#comment-19579</guid>
		<description>trillo fan-
&lt;div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div&gt;don&#039;t think you&#039;re gonna convert him. think you guys will have to agree to disagree.&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div&gt;there has never been a power hitter and run producer like him in Phillies history though, so at the very least, you have to appreciate that.&lt;/div&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>trillo fan-</p>
<div></div>
<div>don&#8217;t think you&#8217;re gonna convert him. think you guys will have to agree to disagree.</div>
<div></div>
<div>there has never been a power hitter and run producer like him in Phillies history though, so at the very least, you have to appreciate that.</div>
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		<title>By: jjg</title>
		<link>http://www.reclinergm.com/phils-dominate-snakes-get-ready-for-the-mets/#comment-19577</link>
		<dc:creator>jjg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Aug 2009 22:45:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=6706#comment-19577</guid>
		<description>Trillo Fan,  OK, I concede, he&#039;s done OK against &quot;the goldens&quot; according
to surface research - higher than his career batting average, about the same HR to AB ratio.  What might be more enlightening about his actual batting  skill and proficiency, especially as it relates to his contemporaries, would be seasonal and career numbers indicating average w/RISP [easy enough to locate], ratio of runners batted in to runners stranded, ratio of Ks to contact ABs, last out of innings, etc., &lt;strong&gt;relative to other sluggers&lt;/strong&gt; and crunched to include &lt;strong&gt;exclusive &#039;innings 7, 8 &amp; 9&#039; production &lt;/strong&gt;categories.  No time for further mining though.  

As for Howard&#039;s &quot;oblitera[tive]&quot; recent campaigns (&#039;06-&#039;08), keep in mind, they&#039;ve also included 45 spirit-depletive errors along with 579
drooping Ks in drive to achieve team goals.

Criticism for his HR &amp; RBI production is fair within the framework of &lt;strong&gt;post-season&lt;/strong&gt; play, where &#039;big money&#039; players ostensibly earn their money.  &lt;strong&gt;76 PA/64 AB/4 HR/10 RBI/.266/23 K/32 TB.
&lt;/strong&gt;Mr. October, he&#039;s not.

Howard summation:  He ain&#039;t bad but he ain&#039;t great.  And he&#039;s lucky he plays in the bangball era, w/smaller strike zone, facing &quot;temperate&quot; pitchers.    
           &lt;strong&gt;  
&lt;/strong&gt;
     </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Trillo Fan,  OK, I concede, he&#8217;s done OK against &#8220;the goldens&#8221; according<br />
to surface research - higher than his career batting average, about the same HR to AB ratio.  What might be more enlightening about his actual batting  skill and proficiency, especially as it relates to his contemporaries, would be seasonal and career numbers indicating average w/RISP [easy enough to locate], ratio of runners batted in to runners stranded, ratio of Ks to contact ABs, last out of innings, etc., <strong>relative to other sluggers</strong> and crunched to include <strong>exclusive &#8217;innings 7, 8 &amp; 9&#8242; production </strong>categories.  No time for further mining though.  </p>
<p>As for Howard&#8217;s &#8220;oblitera[tive]&#8221; recent campaigns (&#8217;06-&#8217;08), keep in mind, they&#8217;ve also included 45 spirit-depletive errors along with 579<br />
drooping Ks in drive to achieve team goals.</p>
<p>Criticism for his HR &amp; RBI production is fair within the framework of <strong>post-season</strong> play, where &#8216;big money&#8217; players ostensibly earn their money.  <strong>76 PA/64 AB/4 HR/10 RBI/.266/23 K/32 TB.<br />
</strong>Mr. October, he&#8217;s not.</p>
<p>Howard summation:  He ain&#8217;t bad but he ain&#8217;t great.  And he&#8217;s lucky he plays in the bangball era, w/smaller strike zone, facing &#8221;temperate&#8221; pitchers.    <br />
           <strong>  <br />
</strong><br />
     </p>
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		<title>By: Trillo Fan</title>
		<link>http://www.reclinergm.com/phils-dominate-snakes-get-ready-for-the-mets/#comment-19576</link>
		<dc:creator>Trillo Fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Aug 2009 20:31:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=6706#comment-19576</guid>
		<description>jjg:  Let&#039;s humor you and leave out the &quot;geezer gang&quot; of over-the-hill Cy Young winners.  That still leaves Lincecum, Peavy, Webb, Carpenter, Lee, Sabathia, Santana, Zito, and Gagne -- against whom Howard is 24-81 (.296) with 7 HR.  That doesn&#039;t count other premier pitchers like Hudson (10-31, 3 HR), Oswalt (8-17, 2 HR), and Beckett (4-13, 1 HR) who have not won CYAs but have been at or near their primes when facing Howard.  I understand the argument you&#039;re trying to make, but the numbers don&#039;t bear them out.  Howard in his career has done just fine against premier pitchers.  If you want to criticize him, it&#039;s easier to point to his numbers against mediocre pitchers like Tim Redding (3-26, 10 K&#039;s). 

And your statement that &quot;Most everyday clean-up hitters in this era approach 35 &amp; 110&quot; is even less in line with the facts.  Now, you gave yourself an out by saying &quot;approach,&quot; but I think it&#039;s fair to say that if you think an &quot;average&quot; clean-up hitter &quot;approaches&quot; 35-110, then a &quot;good&quot; clean-up hitter consistently reaches 35-110?  Well, in the 2006-2008 time period (Howard&#039;s years as a full-time player), a 35-110 season has been done 26 times.  Only 5 players have done it twice out of three years: Pujols, Howard, Delgado, and the steroids-clouded ARod and Ortiz.  Only &lt;strong&gt;one &lt;/strong&gt;player has done it all three years:  Howard.  And Howard didn&#039;t just surpass those standards, he obliterated them (45-135 each year).   But even if we lower those standards to the more pedestrian 35-110, Howard stands alone.  If you want to criticize Howard, HR-RBI production is not the way to do it.

From my point of view, Howard is only overpaid in the sense that every baseball player is overpaid ...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>jjg:  Let&#8217;s humor you and leave out the &#8220;geezer gang&#8221; of over-the-hill Cy Young winners.  That still leaves Lincecum, Peavy, Webb, Carpenter, Lee, Sabathia, Santana, Zito, and Gagne &#8212; against whom Howard is 24-81 (.296) with 7 HR.  That doesn&#8217;t count other premier pitchers like Hudson (10-31, 3 HR), Oswalt (8-17, 2 HR), and Beckett (4-13, 1 HR) who have not won CYAs but have been at or near their primes when facing Howard.  I understand the argument you&#8217;re trying to make, but the numbers don&#8217;t bear them out.  Howard in his career has done just fine against premier pitchers.  If you want to criticize him, it&#8217;s easier to point to his numbers against mediocre pitchers like Tim Redding (3-26, 10 K&#8217;s). </p>
<p>And your statement that &#8220;Most everyday clean-up hitters in this era approach 35 &amp; 110&#8243; is even less in line with the facts.  Now, you gave yourself an out by saying &#8220;approach,&#8221; but I think it&#8217;s fair to say that if you think an &#8220;average&#8221; clean-up hitter &#8220;approaches&#8221; 35-110, then a &#8220;good&#8221; clean-up hitter consistently reaches 35-110?  Well, in the 2006-2008 time period (Howard&#8217;s years as a full-time player), a 35-110 season has been done 26 times.  Only 5 players have done it twice out of three years: Pujols, Howard, Delgado, and the steroids-clouded ARod and Ortiz.  Only <strong>one </strong>player has done it all three years:  Howard.  And Howard didn&#8217;t just surpass those standards, he obliterated them (45-135 each year).   But even if we lower those standards to the more pedestrian 35-110, Howard stands alone.  If you want to criticize Howard, HR-RBI production is not the way to do it.</p>
<p>From my point of view, Howard is only overpaid in the sense that every baseball player is overpaid &#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: jjg</title>
		<link>http://www.reclinergm.com/phils-dominate-snakes-get-ready-for-the-mets/#comment-19570</link>
		<dc:creator>jjg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Aug 2009 17:59:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=6706#comment-19570</guid>
		<description>Trillo Fan,  Credit to you for your close reading and alertness to the critical prepositional phrase &quot;with his best stuff&quot;.  Your listing of &#039;Howard vs. Cy Young pitchers&#039; stats was interesting and supports, on its face, the continuing overinflation of a Grade B/B+ baseball player (Baseball-Reference.com age 28 comparables to Howard:  Cecil Fielder, Norm Cash, Tony Clark, Mo Vaughn, David Ortiz, Carlos Delgado, Fred McGriff, Ryan Klesko, Richie Sexson, Jason Bay).  But consider the ages during 2005 (Howard&#039;s first full season) of the following referenced, combating pitchers and the year of their last Cy Young Award:
     
     Maddux     39      1995
     Glavine      39      1998
     Smoltz        38      1996
     Johnson    40      2002
     Clemens    42      2004
     Martinez   33      2000 

In their honor, let&#039;s rename the mound &quot;Rocking Chair Mountain&quot;.  All well past primes.  Their &quot;best stuff&quot; at Howard? - hardly.  Today&#039;s Howard vs. above pitchers in their primes:  his .297 average would very likely sink.  My basic point - premier pitcher, present tense, eats him alive, 3 times out of 4 (and that&#039;s being generous to Howard).

As for his always being near top in HRs &amp; RBIs - no doubt about that, but he bats 4th, swings from his heels without diminished playing time consequence of Ks, is favored with scads of baserunners and plays in the cushy confines of CBP.  Most everyday clean-up hitters in this era approach 35 &amp; 110, or they&#039;re not holding up their end.  

Also, his &#039;09 1st baseman fielding pct. of .990 is under the league avg. of .994 - even in this, his trimmed-down, oft-mentioned &#039;glove renaissance&#039; season.

Ryan Howard:  &quot; The Big Overpaid Man&quot; ... as more than chicks dig the long ball, evidence bears out.  </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Trillo Fan,  Credit to you for your close reading and alertness to the critical prepositional phrase &#8220;with his best stuff&#8221;.  Your listing of &#8216;Howard vs. Cy Young pitchers&#8217; stats was interesting and supports, on its face, the continuing overinflation of a Grade B/B+ baseball player (Baseball-Reference.com age 28 comparables to Howard:  Cecil Fielder, Norm Cash, Tony Clark, Mo Vaughn, David Ortiz, Carlos Delgado, Fred McGriff, Ryan Klesko, Richie Sexson, Jason Bay).  But consider the ages during 2005 (Howard&#8217;s first full season) of the following referenced, combating pitchers and the year of their last Cy Young Award:<br />
    <br />
     Maddux     39      1995<br />
     Glavine      39      1998<br />
     Smoltz        38      1996<br />
     Johnson    40      2002<br />
     Clemens    42      2004<br />
     Martinez   33      2000 </p>
<p>In their honor, let&#8217;s rename the mound &#8220;Rocking Chair Mountain&#8221;.  All well past primes.  Their &#8220;best stuff&#8221; at Howard? &#8211; hardly.  Today&#8217;s Howard vs. above pitchers in their primes:  his .297 average would very likely sink.  My basic point &#8211; premier pitcher, present tense, eats him alive, 3 times out of 4 (and that&#8217;s being generous to Howard).</p>
<p>As for his always being near top in HRs &amp; RBIs &#8211; no doubt about that, but he bats 4th, swings from his heels without diminished playing time consequence of Ks, is favored with scads of baserunners and plays in the cushy confines of CBP.  Most everyday clean-up hitters in this era approach 35 &amp; 110, or they&#8217;re not holding up their end.  </p>
<p>Also, his &#8217;09 1st baseman fielding pct. of .990 is under the league avg. of .994 &#8211; even in this, his trimmed-down, oft-mentioned &#8216;glove renaissance&#8217; season.</p>
<p>Ryan Howard:  &#8221; The Big Overpaid Man&#8221; &#8230; as more than chicks dig the long ball, evidence bears out.  </p>
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		<title>By: tk76</title>
		<link>http://www.reclinergm.com/phils-dominate-snakes-get-ready-for-the-mets/#comment-19560</link>
		<dc:creator>tk76</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:45:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=6706#comment-19560</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m just old enough to remember how frustrated people would get with Schmidt early in his prime...

But I think Howard is an even more frustrating star.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m just old enough to remember how frustrated people would get with Schmidt early in his prime&#8230;</p>
<p>But I think Howard is an even more frustrating star.</p>
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		<title>By: bski</title>
		<link>http://www.reclinergm.com/phils-dominate-snakes-get-ready-for-the-mets/#comment-19559</link>
		<dc:creator>bski</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:20:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=6706#comment-19559</guid>
		<description>Please ingnore the extraneous &quot;be&quot; in the opening sentence of the previous post.  Thanks.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Please ingnore the extraneous &#8220;be&#8221; in the opening sentence of the previous post.  Thanks.</p>
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		<title>By: bski</title>
		<link>http://www.reclinergm.com/phils-dominate-snakes-get-ready-for-the-mets/#comment-19558</link>
		<dc:creator>bski</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:17:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=6706#comment-19558</guid>
		<description>Trillo Fan,

Didn&#039;t mean to be come across quite so curt.  Nice work by you.

I actually double checked because I thought that Howard must have had some ABs against Halladay.  Surprisingly, he does not, but I ended up coming across his record against Johnson in the process. 

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Trillo Fan,</p>
<p>Didn&#8217;t mean to be come across quite so curt.  Nice work by you.</p>
<p>I actually double checked because I thought that Howard must have had some ABs against Halladay.  Surprisingly, he does not, but I ended up coming across his record against Johnson in the process. </p>
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		<title>By: Trillo Fan</title>
		<link>http://www.reclinergm.com/phils-dominate-snakes-get-ready-for-the-mets/#comment-19557</link>
		<dc:creator>Trillo Fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2009 17:59:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=6706#comment-19557</guid>
		<description>&lt;strong&gt;bski&lt;/strong&gt;: thank s for the addition.  I also didn&#039;t look too closely to see if Howard had any at bats against Pat Hentgen (probably the most obscure Cy Young winner in the last 15-20 years) or some others before 1995.

&lt;strong&gt;Pete&lt;/strong&gt;: funny, Howard succeeded another feast-or-famine type player in Thome, but Howard is even more extreme (more strikeouts and more homers).  I go back and forth when discussing with fellow Phillie fans whether someone like Youkilis would be just as effective in Howard&#039;s spot (higher average and better eye, but lower power).  Then again, Youkilis is himself an all-star, and there really aren&#039;t that many first basemen around baseball that you could argue would be better than Howard in the Phillies&#039; lineup  (fellow MVPs Pujols and Morneau, maybe Teixeira, maybe Youkilis -- it&#039;s a short list).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>bski</strong>: thank s for the addition.  I also didn&#8217;t look too closely to see if Howard had any at bats against Pat Hentgen (probably the most obscure Cy Young winner in the last 15-20 years) or some others before 1995.</p>
<p><strong>Pete</strong>: funny, Howard succeeded another feast-or-famine type player in Thome, but Howard is even more extreme (more strikeouts and more homers).  I go back and forth when discussing with fellow Phillie fans whether someone like Youkilis would be just as effective in Howard&#8217;s spot (higher average and better eye, but lower power).  Then again, Youkilis is himself an all-star, and there really aren&#8217;t that many first basemen around baseball that you could argue would be better than Howard in the Phillies&#8217; lineup  (fellow MVPs Pujols and Morneau, maybe Teixeira, maybe Youkilis &#8212; it&#8217;s a short list).</p>
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