2011: 64-37
2010: 55-46
2009: 59-42
2008: 54-47
2007: 52-49
The Phillies continue to roll along, now 6 games up on the Braves and 10 games up on a playoff spot in the NL.
Now the defending champs come to town, boasting a team ERA that can best ours and a line-up that cannot. Unfortunately, the pitching match-up gods screwed this one up, and this will be one of the VERY few series this year where we will have 2 non-aces going for us while the Giants will throw out their 3 all-stars.
A few notes before I get to the team comp.:
- Chase Utley has been outstanding of late. I can’t believe he made it back, let alone made it back and has played this well. After a slow start, here are his numbers since June 10th (35 games, 131 AB): .305 BA, .372 OBP, .534 SLG%, 7 SB. Despite playing only 50 games, Utley is tied for 6th in WAR among 2B on the season. Amazing.
- Jimmy Rollins is also having a great month. He’s hit .338 with a .929 OPS. He’s still a top-10 short-stop in this league (7th in WAR right now) and I hope to see the Phils get an extension done soon.
As I’ve done with other potentially playoffs match-ups (Red Sox, Braves) let’s take a player-by-player look at the teams…
Wow…that is…wow…that is a really bad offense.
We know that our offense has struggled, and the Giants are far worse off. They clearly desperately need to make a move.
The only guy that scares me on the Giants is Lincecum. He’s a game-changer who can obviously hang with Halladay and shift a series all by himself like Lee and Hamels have done for us in the past. Overall, I think we are a much better team than the Giants, and I also think their record is a bit inflated as they only have a +19 run differential on the year (means they should be closer to 53-49). I still think the Braves are our biggest threat in the NL.
Three Questions for the Series…
- Can our offense put up enough runs against the Giants “big-3″?
- What on earth has gotten into Ryan Vogelsong?
- Will we have a new player in pinstripes by series end?
It’s fair, and an obvious theme to call this a rematch of last year’s NLCS. The question is really is it more of a 2011 NLCS preview. First place might not mean what it did pre wild card, but winning the NL East means the liklihood of having to beat one of the Giants or Braves. As it stands now, the Braves would need to win a best of 5 against both the Giants and Phils (7), road unpriveleged, and this doesn’t even include an NL Central foe that also would have home field, and would enter the LCS off a victory over the Phils, and therefore on a roll.
But the simplification is the Giants and Phils are probably headed to best positioning for the playoffs, and a likely rematch. As a result of that, I think it’s more of a 2011 preview than rematch. But the Braves certainly will be competitve against the Giants, and may only need 1 road win to block that scenario.
The one thing that matters most to me in this upcoming home and home that completes next weekend is it figures to be Roy Oswalt’s first start back next Saturday afternoon in San Fransisco. Spacious park, not strong (weak sounds too critical) offfensive opponent, some good things favor a promising outing. The rest of the games are largely just fillers on the schedule. That doesn’t mean I’d be complacent on losing 5 of 6, but this isn’t that huge a rivalry that thrusts it toward great significance. It’d be nice to see Cody Ross walk away from the set thinking he’s seeing something other than grapefruits, too.
But it’s good to see the World Champs again, deserved that they are, and hopefully going down at long last. For whatever that will be worth, for now.
There is another value to this series, as pointed out by David Hale. In facing Lincecum and Cain, the Phils have a last chance to see how the hitters perform against not only playoff level pitching, but decent chance specific playoff matchups before the trade deadline. While you don’t want to overreact to 1-2 games, if one of the guys really struggles against 1 or both, it might uptick the aggressiveness on the trade deadline effort to improve the offense. Pretty good point, I believe.
I think the Phils will win 2 of 3 in this series. Worley will be the surprise. I am very impressed with this kid– to handle the Red Sox (a potential World Series matchup) and handle the heat in Chicago against the Cubs. That series with the Padres was perfect practice for the Phils to prepare for the Giants. The Phils had to deal with some great pitchers and bullpen action from the Padres– the reason we won that series (aside from pitching), was the offense being patient. Luckily, the Giants will not be base running as aggressively as the Padres. Kendrick just has to do what he does best and get ground ball outs. It was great to see Rollins, Martinez, and Utley come through offensively, and I hope it carries over from here on out. I doubt there will be a sweep by either team, but it would be amazing if the Phils do it and backfire Bochy’s strategy at the All-Star game.
When it is all said and done, I think the Phils will get a bat. Who will it be? Could there be more options than just Pence and Beltran if the prices are too steep? Maybe that Giants series could answer some of these questions. Phils are aggressively going after Bell and Adams (who were very impressive yesterday), but they need a bat. The AL Central has the Twins and the White Sox, are there any viable options for the Phils?
Anyway, GO PHILS!! BEAT THOSE GIANTS!
The question is which Tim Lincecum will show up on the mound? For his career, he has been great, but his team has let him down at times. It happens, even to the best of pitchers like yesterday for instance.
It will be interesting to see if the Phils bring their A game, whatever that may be. So far Rollins and Utley are hot, Howard is seeing the ball better and Vic looks like a lock for the 5-hole. It looks like we wont get shut out. Just how much intensity will they bring, just off the fact that these guys kicked their asses last year?
If I recall, rollins finished last year with 1.7 WAR. Nice bounceback for him there, especially considering he still has a couple months left to add to that. I don’t remember how many WAR Shane had, but he must have past it already too. He’s got a chance to top Werth’s team high 5.5 if he stays hot(even though I still think Werth’s WAR from last years demonstrates some of the flaws in the model they use to compute that stat.)
Tonite’s matchup should be very interesting. Based on recent performance, I’d look for Worley to show pretty well against the offensively challenged visitors. The kid from Dazed and Confused (or Lincecum, whichever you prefer) can obviously show up big in any game. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a tight fisted affair. My key to the game is our defense. We need to execute & not give these guys extra outs on missed or careless plays, even if they’re not technically classed as errors.
What I love about the Phillies is how they “downplay” big games and let their games speak for themselves. Great quote by Victorino about “Revenge.”
The defending World Champion SF Giants are entering the jaws of Playtown, er, Citizens Bank Park where the Phillies are 37-16, a .698 clip! Holy visitor shrinkage, Batman!! I place my coupon on the Phils skeeballing 2 of 3 games center-up into the smallest cup versus the distant progeny of Mays, McCovey, McCormick, Miller & Marichal in preparation for an Errol Flynn weekend with the slippery Buccaneers (a flinty 27-22 on the road). Hold onto your hat! Then try Marra’s pizza – a great topping to any day.
good call, it seems whenever we start slipping into a losing funk on the road, a home stand just swoops in and fertilizes our endangered Ws.
Phils will take 2 of 3. Hamels and Worley are the true #1 and #2 right now reputation aside.
Can they get Pence without losing Brown and Worley?
Interesting discussion of Lidge going on at fangraphs.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brad-lidge-velocity-and-trevor-hoffman/
I know that nobody expects Worley to have a career era around 2, but i like this kid’s approach in general. maybe credit goes partially to schnieder for calling the pitches, but he works an at bat well. good pitch sequences, puts the ball in good spots on the outer edges of the zone, gets enough movement that most guys dont square him up well, just little things like that (that guys like blanton don’t do – no offense joe).
For NL ROY, where would you place Worley among Kimbrel, Beachy, Freeman, Gee, Espinosa?
I kinda like Freeman actually, I’d assume he keeps improving the rest of the way. Kimbrel’s good, of course, but I have a hard time giving it to a reliever. But to get to my real point, by the time Bravos-Pirates is over, it’ll be Pedro Alvarez.
Here’s Corcoran’s answer if you haven’t seen it. I know your prying for interest in Worley, can only speak for myself, but what’s the rush to decide on him? In another month, he’ll still have about 6 starts left, so he’s about a little less than .5way through his year.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/cliff_corcoran/07/25/rookies.hellickson.kimbrel/index.html
No rush to decide, just wanted to see where people thought he stacked up as we approach the quarter pole. I was suprised to see Barney on that list, forgot about Collmenter too. I also like Freeman – it will be interesting to see if the Braves’ rookies “steal” votes from each other.
I could see a split vote if Freeman was having an okay season. But he’s batted a good amount of 4, has shown steady progression in his monthly splits, and is very likely to finish with some excellent totals. He’s just been ridiculously valuble to that club on an everyday basis, and now has a chance to carry even more weight with McCann out for at least 15 days. It was written that between them, Howard and Vic are giving the Phils value because of Shane’s play. I still think J-Hey is a terrific player in the end, but because of the Freeman-Heyward combo, the Braves youth plan is working out well and it ain’t because of J-Hey’s year to date play. It’s hard envisioning Vance catching him, but frankly, just being mentioned as a viable canddiate, even as a slight stretch should be pretty flattering to him. But he could still make some noise in the race.
CG for Worley tonight. All the accolades on this kid would look a whole lot better if they were to become based on a body of work that includes a 2nd year in the majors. That said, he does have one thing going for him; the tail-back sinking fastball is definitely a strikeout pitch. As long as he can command it, he’ll have a future in the Majors.
So are we gonna have Timmy for the national TV game dueling Hamels, or does his tummy still hoits?
The other interesting thong about him (with all the usual caveats about small sample size), fangraphs ranks all 4 of his pitches as contributing to wins above average. Wins above average is a value added metric like WAR that attempt to rank how many runs a given pitch “saves” over the course of the year. So basically, he’s using all of his pitches effectively. Most guys have a couple good pitches and a not-so-good pitch or two.
The Phillies are among the teams scouting on Carlos Quentin. What do you guys think of him? I know his defense is not so strong, but his offense is strong. Maybe under the Phils, he will get better and fit in.
http://twitter.com/#%21/BNightengale/status/96012518522236928
GO PHILS! GREAT JOB WORLEY!!
I have one thing to say about Worley….prime trade bate. His value will never be higher. I have seen all but one of his starts and I do not think he would be more than a 4th or 5th starter. He has Happ and Kendrick written all over him. Alot of balls are getting hit hard right now, right at people. He is going through one of those 2009 JA Happ streaks where he had very good results but not so good “behind the numbers”. Of course smart GMs know this as well.
If I have my wish I would trade for Pence and Beltran, using Worley and 2 other top prospects. I would attempt to hold back Brown but would include him if necessary. It would take two for Pence, one for Beltran. Then I would let Beltran walk and plug Brown back in next year. Then our lineup looks like:
Rollins
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Pence
Beltran
Victorino
Ruiz
Ibanez becomes a nice bat off the bench and outfield insurance if/when Betran or Victorino go down.
Don’t put it by RAJ to pull this off. We have some very good prospects and the time is now. I believe the franchise is in the full-court press mode to win this year and next.
bait…
you do realize that giving up Brown essentially makes the trade a wash. you’d be trading young, promising OFers for each other. Brown projects to be even better than Pence. you’re just robbing Peter to pay Paul. Is this just about him being right handed?
And why are you so excited about trading Vance Worley? It’s really short sighted once you consider the offseason; Roy Os is gone, Blanton is gone, Hamels needs a new contract soon. 2 rotation spots open (excluding Kendrick) and you have a guy who can give you quality starts for cheap? Are you crazy? You want us to go and pick up another Blanton for 3/12mil? No way.
projections are for teams that are rebuilding to win in 3 years. I don’t realy care how good Brown is in 3 years. That fact is nobody has a clue. He could be a total bust. To say him and Pence are the same player now is ridiculous. Pence is an established commodity who you can plug in the 5-hole. Brown is only on a big-league squad because our pitching can carry the anemic offense. Look at Jason Heyward – he was supposed to do 30/100 and bat 300. How is that working out?
the phils are about now.
Beltran is reportedly heading for San Fran and Houston is considering not trading Pence at all.
The problem is is that there just isn’t that miracle player out there this season.
Good news, bad news from that Pirates-Braves game yesterday. Brian McCann hurt himself and is headed to the DL. However, the Braves won on a such a horrendous call if you saw the highlights to that game. This would be a great opportunity to really distance ourselves from the Braves and perhaps get that bat. I can’t wait for October to begin!
I really don’t see how they will hit until McCann comes off the DL. He’s a huge part of their offense. IMO, the only part of their offense you can actually count on to show up. Freeman and Prado will prevent the ship from sinking but that’s a huge blow.
Chase Utley’s inside-the-park HR call in Spanish. To steal a line from my buddy: Because any exciting play in sports is better in Spanish.
http://www.brobible.com/bronews/story/chase-utleys-inside-the-park-homerun-spanish
I know you posted that for the novelty of it, but I’m really glad you did. I don’t relate to the language, but I’ve been familiar with Rickie Ricardo’s work dating back to his music days for 30 years, and while there are no doubt other Spanish broadcasters who could probably easily crossover to the English side, I’ve wondered if Rickie doing that might not be a great idea. I find myself less annoyed with Tom McCarthy of late, but that’s quite possibly because I’ve tuned him out. I’d say the chances are about zero, but it was fun to listen to that.
Seems like more untouchable names are coming up in the last 24 hours. I suppose there is some authenticity to some of the names. At least a fair amount of them are seen more as in a category of you want him, there’s a premium and that’s maybe on top of a premium.
One such name that has been considered untouchable for a while is Shelby Miller. This is the kingpin of the Cardinal system. He was mentioned in Oswalt possibilities last year, and quickly and vehemently categorized as no way.
For whatever reason, the Cardinals passed on Oswalt and Cliff Lee at trade deadline the last couple years. This year, they have the complication of winning a division, let alone trying to set up as the team to beat. But I wonder if they wouldn’t find this tempting.
Deal Miller and Rasmus to the Mets. Receive Parnell, Pelfrey and Beltran.
Pelfrey might be attractive as one of these guys Dave Duncan gets his hands on. Whether Duncan thinks he can make him what makes more sense than has been, I don’t know. That would be a large factor. Parnell addresses the pen slack. Beltran, as he would anywhere serves multiple purposes. Not the least of which is the message you send to the clubhouse about being serious. Carlos’d be nuts to reject a chance to play there as he springs to free agency. Rasmus needs to get away from TLR more than Jamie does Frank in West Coast Divorce Court. And Miller to the Mets is a great future plan to whatever extent prospects are.
Would the Cards win the divison off that? I’d think so. Could they play with anyone in the League? They probably still don’t quite matchup with the Phils, but nobody does on paper. But I’d think pretty hard about that deal, even considering Miller if they think they can straighten Pelfrey out. That fan base is probably tired of putzing around with competitive, and I’m sure Albert is also.
I think both Miller and Rasmus could return much more than that Mets package, especially if you dealt them separately. Miller is viewed as a top SP prospect–and with Carpenter on the decline and Wainwright coming off a major injury, I don’t think StL gives him up for an ok mid-4 ERA starter like Pelfrey–and Rasmus has the potential to be a very productive OFer in the right environment. I think it’s common knowledge that Rasmus clashes with LaRussa and is/will not reach his full potential while wearing a Redbird on his chest, so some team will ante up for him hoping a new environment/manager exposes all his tools. I see him more likely getting moved in the offseason than at this year’s deadline.
would STL have the change the re-sign Beltran with Pujols in wait?
I stand corrected:
@Buster_ESPN Buster Olney
The trade: Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet and P.J. Walters for Jackson, Marc Rzepczynski, Dotel and Corey Patterson.#trades
Let me address this Cardinal Beltran thought combined with some updated thoughts. First, as Joel Sherman wrote, it appears Boras might be pushing toward the Giants because of available funds for the long term. That makes a lot of sense, and really cancels out what I said about Beltran would do well to go there. That’s a good point, and addresses the unliklihood of affording both Pujols and Beltran. Not that a 2 month stint to win a ring would be bad for Carlos, but it makes sense to combine the possibility with a long term prospect. It’s darn near impossible to imagine the Cards signing Albert and Carlos, of course.
The way i see it, you have to understand 2 things about trading season. One is what trades are doable mechanically, as in who has what clause, and all that good stuff, and secondly, what goes on in reality is not necessarily what’s actually being discussed. This has a touch of more used car sales than used cars themselves. That said, the latest updates have the Giants as the faves, and apparently willing to include prospect Gary Brown who I know is highly thought of. Brian Sabean had several chances to pull off gutsy deals last year, and opted not to (Jonathan Sanchez was a hot topic in the final hour). I know he has a rep as a lone ranger of sorts in his trading style, but I can see where scoring 35 more runs than the Mariners this year (thank you, Phrontiersman) might make him a little more wheel and deal. I mean how many chances do you get to experience the drug of repeating?
So thart’s what’s being reported, and it seems sensible enough to thBnk of credibly. Ruben, of course, has his own rep as a guy who will get his man. Now whether the Phils see Beltran as optimistically as I do, I can’t say. But I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see him in the picture before it’s too late. Beltran is such an impact guy, and that lure has to draw consideration. Ruben, who is only part of the decision process sure seems to appreciate impact ability. If they think they can win it all with the corner OF defense as is, I’ll root for whatever they do, but I don’t feel like spending the winter dwelling on a DB fundamantal error, or Raul misplay which still concerns me. But they know much better than me what they should do. So if Sabean does get it done, hats off on what I’d see as a great acquisition, price of which I don’t feel qualified to have a serious opinion on.
On Pelfrey, he is what he is, but that deal that I thought about was on if Duncan felt he could do something with him. So I wasn’t judging it so much by present abilities, but rather Pelfrey as a strong commodity. I wouldn’t be concerned about AW coming back strong. Easy for me to say, not having money tied up, but he really knows how to pitch, and I trend to trust the post TJ rate pretty faithfully.
Bletran going to giants for two minor leaguers.
The way I’m reading it, the deal is not quite done, but appears likely. And this isn’t sour grapes, but the deal getting done and Beltran approving the deal in the next 24 hours are separate concepts. I’d assume he will, and enthusiastically, but that’s a decision that he and Scott Boras will discuss.
It’s disheartening to have to try to see if this trade is final, and watch Oye como va come alive again when I could be spending my time trying to determine if Brett Favre is retired.
But as a tweeter twitted, Jerry Meats picked a good day to get lost in a news cycle.
For Beltran, hitting home runs will be tough in that ballpark the Giants have. Now, where do the Phillies go if this is offically a done deal for the Giants? I think they will meet their needs, especially that right handed bat.
I think they now will just add a reliever. The only have three reliable effective arms right now in Stutes, Basty, and Maddy. What is just one of those go down in the last two months? Contreras is likely gone and he was a main cog. Bastardo and Stutes have filled in admirably but they are already showing signs of fatigue and/or pressure. I don’t think Chollie wants to go into the playoffs with just Madson and a creaky Lidge as pen vets. They need a reliable vet to fortify the back end of pen.
Why do you think Stutes and Bastardo are showing signs of fatigue and/or pressure? And Lidge has had 1 appearance – way to early to tell what he’s going to give us.
I still could see us adding a crappy RH bat like Ludwick.
Mid-season RH-ed bat ”bolsterings” since 1960: Lee Walls, Jim Lemon, Vic Power, Frank “I’m jealous of Richie” Thomas, Harvey “Wallbanger” Kuenn, “Downtown” Ollie Brown, Bill Robinson (redux), Sixto Lezcano, Ron Roenicke, Randy Ready, Stan Javier, Billy Hatcher, Jeff Conine, Russell Branyan. Fairly bland list, but at least the names represent attempts to upgrade. Frequently Phils haven’t gotten what they prayed for.
ya know, it is a pretty routine list in retrospect, but there was some good talent and reason to think high at the time. Bill Robinson was a great prospect at one time, had a pretty decent career, including here, Sixto and Ollie had some productive years.
To my memory, the best mid year bring in, and I’d say inarguably, was Bake for Tommy Underwood. Well, Cliff would count, I guess. Course Bake was lefty. I thought Stan javier was also, but maybe not.
Bill perservered and had a nice career. Ollie was dangerous, brought murmers to a crowd as PH. Never thought much of Sixto, but his best days were in Milwaukee.
Stan was a switch-hitter. I get him mixed up with Ruben Jr. Maybe they were the same player. Their dads could play a little; Ruben Sr. had a sweet glove, Julian was an annual pest to Phils.
Loved watching Bake go down line in Cardinal & early Phils days before knees were shot. One word describes him: cool. An all-time favorite.
sp correction – persevered
Delete lefty Branyan from right placement on list.
List ends with KB favorite “Swattin’” Mike Sweeney.
Giants acquire best Mets centerfielder ever, improve themselves for pennant run, still have Phillies in their heads for a few nights, especially Chase “Round Trip Ticket” Utley.
I’m hearing details still being worked out between Mets/Giants and Beltran, who might ask for this or that before approving the deal.>>
That’s not a fact, it’s a hearsay from a guy I consider pretty reliable, SF Chron Giant beat man Hank Sculman.
But the reason I post it is not to convey hope of the deal falling through so much as to reiterate the need to follow through on the acquisition. I rather doubt it gets undoable touchy, but that chance seems to exsist. This was one reason this deal was obviously getting done early. But Carlos is absolutely right on to make sure he uses his window effectively, and he’s got the right representation to do so.
Yeah, short leap of faith based on NYPost report of the heavy detail work having been accomplished, Beltran already thumbs-up on Giants, and his going-away party with teammates. As you’ve previously noted, deals aren’t deals until the ink’s on the papers.
Just tuned into ESPN, games blacked out. They’re running ESPNEWS which just aired a commercial for the game. Bizarre.
Cody Ross is big honkin’ D. Chucking pine into OUR stands? Not gon’ be havin’ none of that type buffoonery in our ballpark.
Best i could tell of gameday tracking, Roy O had a good first outing. Some rust. 72 pitches, 41 K’s, but it was 21/21 after 2 inning, so he improved. Pigs scored 3 in B2, the long inning gave him some rest, and the lead couldn’t have hurt, and he cruised through a 12 pitch inning. About 5Ks, 2 walks, 1 homer. Seemed like a good first outing from which to build. I’d guess 1 more rehab seems advantageous, but I’m sure we’ll get more reliable opinions and decisions. Good to see him back out competing.
Not to overplay 1 story success, but DO NOT under ANY circumstance question Jim Salisbury’s credibility. It NEVER came up here over the winter because I know myself at least thought it was so hopeless, but he was all over the Cliff story from season’s end until the signing.
Tonight, he files this.
The Phillies have been aggressive in pursuing Pence and there are indications that they would include Domonic Brown in a trade for him, according to Jim Salisburyof CSNPhilly.com. The Astros are looking for multiple top prospects for Pence, the Phillies’ top target.
Just got done watching Ibanez swing at outside pitches that were head high. A effen useless AB, Then Brown, as he often does, works the count well, hits a single and Shane comes home. A Giants moment perhaps: an error, a crap hit for a run. I like Brown, I like his usually good AB’s, particularly compared to the often frustrating-to-the-extreme ones that precede him (Howard and Ibanez). Yes, his fielding is pretty poor at this point.
I don’t claim to know the different “ceilings” of guys like Brown or Pence (presumably already “there”), but, somehow, my gut is not at all excited by these tweets. The Phillies, obviously in need of offense, will get an excellent bat when they probably need three, If they have to give up two top prospects plus DB, I will be less than thrilled.
I’m beginning to really like Dom Brown. He has long arms and a very good eye. I think the holes in his game can be fixed and improved with time and experience.
But I may break my TV if he ends up starting in the playoffs. Talk about needing a RH bat, we needs a RH glove too. If we stand pat, I’d better see Mayberry in RF. Today’s adventure on that 1 out fly was not pleasant at all. Kid cannot read anything at all, thank goodness for his speed.
I agree with you on that. I’d like to see Dom evolve but his defense is starting to kill me. If they don’t pick up a right fielder then I’d prefer Mayberry out there in a playoff situation. They’re about even in offense with Mayberry having an edge in power.
While you guys are lined up to replace Brown defensively, here’s another idea that I thought was well expressed…
<<Screw Hunter Pence, can we PLEASE trade for somebody like Michael Bourn and stick him in CF with Victorino in RF and Brown moved to LF?
The current defensive setup in the outfield is driving me up the wall, with Shane being the only plus OF defender at this point. Brown has the tools to be a very good defender with time, but he’s looking really green out there right now…and he’d do less damage if he was in LF with Ibanez being benched, but of course Cholly would never go for that!
It’s not often that I wish the NL had a DH rule, but watching the OF situation is really painful right now. It’s bad enough that Polanco and his solid glove is still out, and it’s especially ugly when combined with an Outfield that includes Raul.
A lot of recent games have had more than a few really ugly defensive plays, and I think that’s this teams one real glaring weakness at this point.>>
I doubt they’re going to bench Raul, especially since his hitting is coming around. His defense is limited by his speed but he is capable of catching the ball. Bourne is interesting but I wouldn’t replace Shane in center. And I don’t see Brown performing any better defensively on the other side of the field – I just don’t.
I was sitting about 20 yards away from brown’s missed catch the yesterday (my big ticket splurge for the year). I don’t know what the broadcasters said, but it looked to me like he shouldn’t have had to dive for that one in the first place. He was slow to break on it and didn’t really charge on it either. Looked like he just kind of waited on it, then took a few steps and laid out when it got close. A good read and a good jump and I don’t think he has to leave his feet there.
Agree with everyone about the defense in general this year. This has been my big thing for a while now. A team that relies on pitching as much as us needs top flight defense. (this is also part of he reason I’ve been pulling for Mayberry to get his offense together – and actually his production at this point is pretty much equal to brown’s)
Do Astros know Domonic fields like a tipsy Reggie Jackson? Be careful what ya trade for Ed; you’ve been kind enough to your former address.
Salisbury looks like Barney Rubble, reasons like Barney Miller, is nice like Barney Fife.
This is fun. 1 run game. Brian Wilson of California. Singin’ from 60′ 6″ stage. Surf’s up.
Raul battled. Dude’s good. Heath Bell-like.
Did you like Cole’s satisfied smile as he left mound down a run?
Bring back Roy’s 12-to-6, but only when he’s ready.
The price the Giants paid for the rental of Beltran does not seem that high; maybe the Phillies didn’t really want him that much since they have quite a few solid pitching prospects in high A that they could have offered the Mets.
It was high. Stewart is a better pitching prospect than anyone in our system. The Mets were good to get him.
Do you mean Wheeler ? Phuture Phillies thought that Cosart was slightly better.
Why would they want Beltran? He’s only averaged 28 & 106 in 14 seasons. What’s wrong with Dom & Ben?
Ya gotta be a little respectful of Kyle Kendrick. He still gets killed at times and its aggrivating (see Joey Bats at Toronto), but for getting thrown around the staff, he’s kinda sorta almost maybe approached the border of his contract being borderline okay with the year he’s had.
But, it’s a fact that he’s pitching tonight, and the lineup he’ll face appears to be destined to include Carlos Beltran. When Derek Jeter 5-5′d his way to 3k, he raised his career BA by a full point. Beltran’s 28/106 over 14 may not read 28/14 after 14.111 is what I’m driving at.
Meanwhile, I think there’s a typo where I checked to see who was pitching for the G’s tonight. Lincecum was spelled TBA. I’m guessing, but I have a feeling he’s their choice.
Kendrick may be the most resilient righty ever, surviving a trade to Japan, demotions to Reading & Allentown and the grim capriciousness of Rich Dubee. When on his game, throws a mean ground ball, 4.53 career ERA aside. 40-28 career mark isn’t all coincidence.
That said, Lincecum vs. Kendrick: U.S.A. vs. Liechtenstein.
Poor Kyle – I root for him, I really do. A co-worker “has a feeling” that the Phils win tonight. I’ll keep my fingers crossed and expectations low. On the other hand, the bats do seem to like supporting Kyle so I guess there’s as good a chance as any.
And I don’t see Brown performing any better defensively on the other side of the field – I just don’t.>>
Stacy,
Space forces me down here to reply to this from above. What the comment I pasted said was Brown would hurt you less in LF. Not that he’d be better right now. If that matters, and for what it’s worth since he’s probably not headed to LF.
It is Timmy tonight.
Pete,
Who would you rather acquire? Heath Bell for this season or Mike Adams for this season and next? Are the asking prices in the same ballpark? I’ve heard the Padres aren’t really thrilled about moving Adams. The Average Joe baseball fan probably has never even heard of him but he has been absolutely dominant the past 3 seasons and could very well be an elite closer if given the opportunity.
Mike Adams is my top choice for a player for the Phils to acquire, regardless of position.
He’s elite, and could close next year in place of Madson.
Any idea of the asking price for Adams?
Higher than Bell. They wanted Singleton and then some.
With Beltran gone, as many as 8 teams are in on Pence bidding, including Braves, Reds, Red Sox, so say a few reports.
is there any reason to think the NLCS won’t again end like last night and tonight? We can’t hit these guys.
yes, because using a 2-game sample for anything is stupid
its a 5 or 7 game series, It is nuts to consider much more of a sample than 2 games. We would need to beat cain, lincecum and vogelsong 4 of 7.
Giants have our number. You can just sense it. They have a ton of confidence against us and we don’t lay with confidence against them.
You’re not dealing with robots with these baseball people. I rather seriously doubt that the lack of hitting against Cain and Lincecum hasn’t increased the degree of anxiousness within the Phils camp to improve. You apply that failure right up against the windshield of the trade deadline window, I’d say the 2 game sampling looms as pretty significant.
This post kinda references some of what was said after the loss to the Giants last year. Although I didn’t post at the time, I really disagreed with several, particularly KB as I remember, who gave kudos to the Giants for what I regarded as a lot of lucky, fluky infield hits, bloopers, light flairs over the infield etc. (OK Cody, Cody, Cody – oh, and why does anyone call this guy a Dick – he just did his job and really, really well.)
But I see these guys a bit differently now. Unlike another team with a horrible offense (“what have you done for me lately” used to be a criterion, not the maudlin dreams of what is yet to come, but never will), the G-Men adjust in all sorts of ways. Their situational hitting is incredible. Get a guy on, no matter how, and someone, somehow will get him to the next bag or further. I have come to agree; it was no fluke; these guys were, and are FOR REAL.
Kendrick, for all I have said and thought about him, pitched (and played except for that horrible bunt attempt – don’t they teach these guys that stuff?) very, very well. If Halladay had pitched, the results would have been similar. RISP: “0 for”, “1 for”, who gives a shit; the second number is almost always a factor of ten (well not an “0 for” obviously) over the first. Unlike the Giants, these guys did not and do not seem to be able to move runners.
I remember many of the gripes here after the NLCS last year. If only Cliff… It wouldn’t have made a slightest difference, something obvious to any rational observer. And then there was all the clamor about retaining Jayson Werth, to me the personification of all that was wrong about the Phillies’ offense in 2010 (Again, most of the positive sentiments in this direction were of the ancient history variety (2008-9) when Werth WAS a very potent bat) Yes, his WAR was high, his average was high. The home run with a five run lead seemed to be his forte, along with a K with a man on third, one out (Howard) in a close game.
I am tired of hearing about “the best record in baseball”, “when August and September…”, we’ll do this or that, etc. The team will probably get a bat. Hopefully, it will be one that makes consistent contact with a man on base (and not of the 6-4-3 variety of our 2011 Phightens.)
Of course the Phillies can beat anybody I just wouldn’t want to put my savings on it. In fact, if I were a betting man, with no skin in the game or heat in the heart, I’d like the Braves or the Giants.
Obviously, It all depends on adjustments whether it is at the plate (come on Ryan, it is possible), on the rubber (no complaints here), in the dugout (a single gets the guy home sometimes – really!!), in the office (since Gillick, usually right on top of this.)
And I totally disagree with you Pete. I did have some meaning, and it wasn’t positive.
I agree with phillyfan here, that for some unquantifiable reason or other certain teams are “owned” by other teams for certain periods of time. It doesn’t happen very often but it usually involves the top teams. Off the top of my head, the Yanks own the Twins. I think we had the Dodgers’ number in 2008 and 2009. I think the Giants now own the Phils. Lincecum, Cain and Wilson absolutely own Chase Utley and Ryan Howard now.
* * *
My strategy would not be to go after Pence. If the problem is psychological, he won’t help. I wanna mess around with the Giants’ heads a little so let’s get Scott Cousins and let’s say we got him for defense. I think having him around would be a little unsettling for them. I’d go ahead and make this Cousins trade bigger and do Rollins for Hanley Ramirez (or Bonafacio) and Domonic Brown for Mike Stanton. Let’s throw as many new wrinkles as possible at the Giants and mess up their scouting reports, their strategies.
Speaking of wrinkles, the one vet I would target is Johnny Damon. I know he’s a lefty but our biggest Giant problems are Matt Cain, Lincecum and Brian Wilson, three righties. I think there’s been too much of a fixation on getting a right-handed hitter, I don’t know how that helps you become a World Series champ.
Reason for worry: Giants aren’t intimidated by Phils, unlike others.
Reason for optimism: Halladay & Lee missing from this 3 gm sample.
Remember, the Giants have to win their first playoff series. They are 0-3 vs the Braves this year
True. But I don’t consider an April series a bellwether for postseason. Giants winning percentage has improved with each month. And Beltran batting third should pay dividends.
“Hello To Arms” – 2011 MLB Pitching:
1. SF 3.06
2. PHL 3.11
4. ATL 3.30
6. PGH 3.32
15. STL 3.89
18. MLW 3.94
20. ARZ 3.99
22. CIN 4.11
More pitching numbers – BAA/BB/SO:
SF .227/351/859
PHL .239/262/796
ATL .235/341/868
PGH .258/323/643
The ghost of Charlie Hayes.
FoxSports is reporting that the Phillies are making progress towards acquiring Pence. A deal could be done as soon as tomorrow. Otherwise, the Astros will talk with other teams or Pence will remain with the team.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/mlb-trade-deadline-hunter-pence-houston-astros-philadelphia-phillies-072811
If you missed the original version of the Von Hayes story, you are watching a nont so instant, but nonetheless replay of it unfold today. And Hayes is remembered as a better player than Pence. Pretty comparable, but still better.
Lost in the shuffle here is what seems the Phils assumption that Pence adapts smoothly to going from the ease of no contention in a hardly as zealous baseball environment to the deepest of frying pans. I wouldn’t jump to any positive certainty on that.
The second paragraph states something that no one has mentioned: the problems encountered by lots of guys when suddenly they are not in say Minnesota anymore, but in the Bronx (Chuck Knobloch). Randy Johnson is another that comes to mind. Interesting to think of Philly in the same way.
Of course, if say Pence really is a gamer, the results might work even better than expected.
Could be wrong, but I surmise Pence’s spunky nature would fit well in a pennant race & postseason play. Bigger than his stats, my take. Of course that’s the optimistic and long distance view.
Laid-back “5 for 1″ played under a lot of pressure. Pete did his part in the welcoming. Jay Baller and Jerry Willard … what a battery.
Some interesting devil’s advocate playing going on about a Pence trade. I’ve seen a few writers point out that his bat is not especially fast, he strikes out a lot & doesn’t walk much, not a high OBP/OPS guy. I think i’m still leaning towards thinking you have to go for it (as if amaro cares what i think), but it does give one a pit of pause - are we getting Ryan Howard with less power & a bit of a better average? I’ve never seen him play much so this is strictly numbers/scouting reports im going on here.
And there’s this as well:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/philly-offer-for-pence-too-good-to-pass-up/