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Phils overpower Reds, head to the Bronx

by Pete

I’m changing the format (really just the order) a little bit and I’m going to start doing my series-wrap and next-series preview in the same post.

2009: 22-17
2008: 21-18
2007: 19-20

Player of the Series: Chase Utley (4 for 12, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 R)
Goat of the Series: Jayson Werth (0 for 10, 4 K)

Good News

  • Real good series win for the Phils. Away against a good team with our 2 horrible pitchers going. Well done by the offense and bullpen.
  • Jimmy is coming around a bit, has hits in 9 of his last 10 games (.341 over that span) and has 11 runs in those games. Not-so-coincidently, we are 7-3 in those games.
  • Jimmy is hitting .234, but on pace for 106 runs. I looked it up just because I was curious, but only 3 players, none of whom I’ve heard of (Frankie Crosetti, Max Bishop and Donnie Bush) have scored 100 runs in a season while hitting less than .235. Last done in 1939. I don’t expect Rollins to keep hit batting average this low, but I thought that was interesting.
  • Raul Ibanez has surpassed Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder and now leads the NL in RBI. He is now 1st in HR, RBI and OPS, 2nd in Runs, and 6th in OPS. I’m not ready to call him a triple crown candidate, but apparently we signed the greatest baseball player of all-time. Pat Burrell is on the DL with his 1 HR and 17 RBI. Keith Law, care to retract this snarky article?
  • Good series for the relievers. Only Chad Durbin gave up runs, and we were already down by several at that point. Park, Eyre, Lidge, Condrey, Madson, Taschner and Escalona gave up 0 runs and only 5 hits in 8.1 IP.
  • Condrey deserves some serious props for how valuable he’s been the last 2 years. He’s 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.06 WHIP this year. I’m becoming more and more comfortable with him in important situations.
  • Sergio Escalona looks promising as well. Good low 90’s fastball. Haven’t seen enough of his secondary stuff (he hasn’t really thrown it) to see what that’s about, but if he’s getting people out with just his fastball, it’s a good sign.
  • We are 1 1/2 games up on the Mets, who have an equally tough series this weekend with the Red Sox.

Bad News

  • It’s looking more and more like our starting pitching problems aren’t just going to “work themselves out.” Moyer appears to be completely done, and at 46, if he is, he’s not going to get it back. Blanton has lost some velocity and is having trouble locating, he might be able to turn it around, but it’s got to be soon. I’m going to work on a post about what the Phillies should do and what options are available in-house and on the trade market. Look for that early next week.
  • The above point is so much more important than anything else, I’m giving it 2 bullet points.
  • Chan Ho’s velocity did not improve out of the bullpen. Last year he was throwing 96mph out of there, hopefully he can get back up to that.
  • Our starters are currently averaging 5.1 IP per start. That is absolutely horrible, and if it doesn’t improve, we will know why our bullpen stinks at the end of the year.

Series Preview – Phillies at Yankees

Well, it’s not the most desirable match-up from a strength of schedule standpoint, but from a fan excitement standpoint, playing the Yankees at the new Yankee Stadium is pretty darn cool.

Since interleague play started, the Phillies have played the Yankees 18 times, with a 8-10 record. However, they are 1-5 at Yankee Stadium and 3-6 since 2000. As Christopher Walken said in Catch Me If You Can, they are “staring at the pinstripes.” Hopefully, the title of “defending champs” will take away any butterflies the Phils had from playing at Yankee Stadium previously.

Friday: Myers vs. A.J. Burnett
Saturday: Happ vs. Andy Pettitte
Sunday: Hamels vs. CC Sabathia

3 Questions for the Series

  1. Will the Phillies rise to the challenge or get too hyped-up for this showdown in the Bronx?
  2. Can JA Happ give us hope that he’s one of the answers to our rotation problems?
  3. Exactly how many HR’s will be hit when the AL-team leader and NL-team leader face off in the HR-leading ballpark? 

Prediction

The Yankees are the hottest team in baseball right now, having won 9 straight games. It’s going to be real tough to de-rail that train. Even though we have our best pitchers going, I think the home-field and momentum will carry the Yankees to the series win, with JA Happ getting the sole win for the Phillies.

Of course, part of me is pulling some reverse psychology after I was wrong (in a good way) last series.

I think there needs to be an over-under on how many HR’s are hit in this series. The Phillies are averaging 1.44 per game, while the Yanks are averaging 1.61. The park itself is averaging 3.75 a game (for both teams). I’d put the over-under at 12 for the series.

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May 22, 2009

{ 22 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Nick 05.22.09 at 11:27 am

Great to see Jimmy hitting and also Dobbs with a home run, hopefully he can get back on track.  Good point about the starters’ effect on the bullpen – 5.1 innings isn’t going to cut it.  Getting a fresh JC back soon will be great (assuming he’s in shape and ready to go).  

Given the putrid starting pitching it’s amazing the phils are in first, but they’re going to need to take advantage of the schedule (with upcoming home games against FLA and WASH) since the June schedule looks much tougher.  Especially while Delgado is out and Reyes is gimpy it is a good time to try and get some distance over the Mets (I don’t normally root for the Red Sox but I will tonight). 

2 bski 05.22.09 at 12:02 pm

I’m reading chatter about Jake Peavy.  Both PhilliesNation and Todd Zolecki have articles about whether or not the Phils should go after Peavy and what it might take to get him, assuming that he would even agree to come here.

While I’m glad Amaro has stated that the Phils will not stand pat if the starting pitching does not improve, I don’t think this is the avenue to pursue.

3 Pete 05.22.09 at 12:11 pm

I haven’t commented on Peavy because it’s not an option for the Phillies for 2 reasons…

  • Would have to increase the already maxed-out payroll by 10+ million this season. That is not happening.
  • I don’t think Peavy would accept a trade here. Jerry Crasnick has said as much. 
IF we had the money and Peavy would accept a deal, I would probably give up some good prospects (Carrasco and Worley maybe) for him. But that’s just not gonna happen. 
Dannie sent me an article that said Brad Penny might be an option. He has a high ERA (6.08) but if you take out 2 of his 8 starts, that drops to 4.10. Not great, but not Jamie Moyer. 
4 bski 05.22.09 at 1:06 pm

Yeah, Pete.  I also read somewhere that Jon Garland might be available.  He’d be a much more likely option also.

5 The Greek 05.22.09 at 3:23 pm

Welcome the the Thunder Dome boys!  As a die hard Yankee fan this is the first time that I have had reason to write on Pete’s side of the blog.  There are no Sammy Dalembeard’s on the Yankees!  It’s going to be a great series, i agree with you Pete.   I am looking for 2 out of 3, with you guys being favored on Saturday.  Good luck!

6 jjg 05.22.09 at 3:47 pm

The Greek, Couldn’t the architects have gotten a little more creative with the new park?  I like the double deck target in right, stone facade is a little lighter gray, banners of greats lining the entrance interior is a nice touch,  “YANKEES” in center looks cool, a beautiful playing field of course – but it’s a replica of the House That Ruth Built across the street.  A classic updated as opposed to an original with much uniqueness.  Do you like it as a building, as opposed to a place that houses your heart?  Just wondering. 

7 jjg 05.22.09 at 4:19 pm

correction:  cement facade, not stone facade.
Some Steinbrenner gold in the signage too - appropriate touch.

You got the Thunderdome, we got the thunder.  Good luck. 

8 jurnee16 05.22.09 at 5:21 pm

Pete,
Keith Law still isn’t sold on the Ibanez move.  If you click on this lind to his Facebook and go down about 10 status updates you will see some of his reasoning in his conversation with his Facebook friends….

http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/profile.php?id=655933839&ref=ts

9 The Greek 05.22.09 at 6:03 pm

JJG , good question.  The stadium had to stay the same, just because this is The New York Yankees that were talking about, not the stinking Mets!   We would have all balked if they did something completely new like make strange corners or raise up a huge wall.

Let’s just agree to agree that Dalembeart is an ass clown!

10 jjg 05.22.09 at 7:12 pm

Sam is working hard on his two-handed outlet passes and head-down sprints upcourt.  Is dedicating himself to the Comeback Player Of The Year award.    

11 Pete 05.22.09 at 7:58 pm

well jjg, we certainly have brought the thunder so far. 

anyone else excited for the Yankees to sign Myers to a 5 year, $75 million deal after this season based solely on this one start?
12 Dannie 05.22.09 at 8:25 pm

And the Yankees bats wake up.

13 Dannie 05.22.09 at 8:30 pm

Just a bit…

I say leave Myers in to pitch to the bottom of the line up in the ninth but I know they won’t.

14 The Greek 05.22.09 at 9:08 pm

Damn Pete, were not that dumb.  Congrats, see y’all tommorow.   You can keep Myers.

JJG, rumor has it that dumbo wants to avg 20 points a game next season.  Can’t wait!

15 Pete 05.23.09 at 10:51 am

Greek-

haha. I think you (the yankees) are that dumb! Pavano, Igawa, Burnett, Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, so on and so forth! They don’t understand the term “contract year.”
16 Pete 05.23.09 at 11:00 am

Todd Zolecki on why Peavy to the Phils does, and doesn’t make sense

17 The Greek 05.23.09 at 6:27 pm

Pete, your right about those dumb moves but those led to Cashman being slapped on the wrist.   As you saw this offseason with Tex, CC, AJ, and Swisher.     In the past they would have chosen Manny over Tex.  

Great game today, lets see how our ace does against yours tomorrow!!!!!

18 Pete 05.23.09 at 8:07 pm

if by “great game” you mean “pete needs valium” then yes, I agree!

trying to concentrate on Happ’s impressive start and not the serious, serious problem of Brad Lidge. 
19 Dannie 05.23.09 at 9:11 pm

That was a deflating loss for me. Starting pitching has handled the Yanks line up so far then Lidge comes in and blows it.  Got paid and now under performing.

20 Dannie 05.24.09 at 7:04 pm

So what is the plan for Lidge?  If you take the closer responsibilities from him you run the risk of losing him for good mentally right?

21 jjg 05.24.09 at 9:27 pm

Dannie, Your 2nd question sounds like an unfounded fear.  Nobody knows better than Lidge that he’s been a failure in his role to date.  If ball is handed to another for a period of time, Lidge won’t collapse mentally (though he may be may be embarrassed for the change).  Pitching, like hitting, after all, is a practice of ups and downs.  Lidge isn’t a stranger to slumps.  Given his perfect ‘08 season and the Phillies’ 24-18 1st place standing (which mitigates a sense of urgency), he deserves the ball a couple more times to turn out the lights.  If he continues to struggle, an alternative pitcher would then be a reasonable direction.

Given the ineffectiveness of Park, Blanton, Moyer & Lidge, Phillies are lucky as hell to be where they are.  The team’s high floatation level (in terms of comparitive records) speaks to its floundering competition.      

22 bski 05.25.09 at 8:10 am

What a road trip.  Hard to complain about going 8-2.  That said, Saturday’s loss is still eating at me.  Seeing us come right back yesterday, continue to play well, and put ourselves in good shape for another win really helped ease my mind.  Until Lidge came in and blew another one for us that is.  At least he didn’t lose the game again. 

We’ve been told that every physical problem (knee) and/or mechanical problem (stay tall on the back side of delivery) and/or ancillary support problem (custom made insole) has been identified and corrected and that all Lidge needs is to throw more innings to regain his sharpness.  I’m starting to wonder how many innings he might need before that happens (I mean, are we talking around 60 or what) because this is getting tough to deal with.

Gotta love how we’re playing.  The Yanks had won 9 in a row before we got to NYC, so they were obviously playing some good ball.  We went in and outplayed them in all facets of the game, except closer of course.  Our defense was great all weekend (Howard, Rollins, Ruiz, etc…).  Our starting pitching was fantastic (no walks allowed by a starter in all 3 games), Myers has really come around and you’ve got to be encouraged by what Happ did.  The offense continued to show pop as well as the ability to string together good at-bats and clutch hits to score runs.  There was a lot to like all around.

Now all we need to do is to play this way at home and we’ll be in good shape.

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