Before we get into the series preview, I have a couple points of interest:
- Jim Thome tied Mike Schmidt on the all-time HR list last night with his 548th HR. If Thome did not use steroids or HGH (he has never been implicated), he is one of the players most hurt by the PED culture. As it stands, Thome is currently 13th on the all-time HR list. If you take out all the players accused of PED use, Thome jumps up to 8th behind only Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Robinson, Harmon Killebrew and Reggie Jackson. Those are all 1st ballot hall of famers, but you hear very few people describe Thome that way. Thome is on pace for 37 HR and 106 RBI this season. Just amazing at age 38.
- “If it was a fish the Dodgers would probably throw it back, but it’s a victory and to Dodgers will happily take it!” That’s Charlie Steiner announcing the hilarious Mets loss last night. My dislike of the Mets has grown so much that this type of loss is pretty much as rewarding as a Phillies victory.
- Chris McKendry, the daytime host of SportsCenter, when talking about the new World Series game times, said that her kids’ bedtime is 8pm, “unless the Phillies are on.” Apparently she’s from Philly and graduated from Drexel. Did not know that.
Ok, on to the series. The Phils have two tough series this week against the Reds and Yankees. They will also see a couple tough pitchers in Johnny Cueto, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett.
The Reds are winning with their pitching right now. They have the 2nd best bullpen ERA and the 4th best overall ERA in the NL. They are 11th in runs and 13th in BA, so maybe our pitchers can get in a couple good starts against them. So the signs point towards this being a low scoring series…so I would expect a slug fest…
Tuesday: Hamels vs. Johnny Cueto (4-1, 1.93 ERA)
Wednesday: Moyer vs. Micah Owings (3-4, 3.95 ERA)
Thursday: Blanton vs. Aaron Harang (3-4, 3.44 ERA)
Three Questions for the Series
- Can we win a series in which both Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton pitch? If we can’t, what can we do about it?
- Can we make the bottom of Reds line-up beat us? (Only Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce have more than 14 RBI)
- Can struggling lefties Howard and Utley get right against 3 righties?
Prediction
This is going to be short. I just don’t see us winning a series against a decent team with both Moyer and Blanton on the hill. Hopefully, they will be able to contain the Reds big 3 and take care of the rest and use a below average Reds offense for a confidence boost. But, until they show me, I can’t predict a series victory here. Reds take 2 of 3.
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{ 29 comments… read them below or add one }
Pete, this series will be different if Votto isn’t able to go. Also, we get to miss Volquez and that damn sinker that he would induce ground out after ground out with. The Reds just got shut down by Peavy without Votto, maybe him on the sideline turns them into a mediocre team. Although Willy Tavares always seems to give the Phillies trouble (remember the playoffs two seasons ago?)
good catch. hadn’t seen Votto was sick.
Yeah, Votto might miss the entire series. Here’s what I found on the Reds website:
The mystery behind Joey Votto’s dizzy spells remains that.
Votto was unable to fly home with the Reds after becoming light-headed following Sunday’s game against the Padres. He was admitted for tests at the Scripps Clinic in San Diego as a precautionary measure. He will be examined again Tuesday in Cincinnati.
Because of the flu and the dizziness upon his return, Votto missed five games last week.
is the telecast blurry for anyone else? just the behind the pitcher view…
I don’t hate Wheeler as much as most, but I hate that EVERY time a pitcher doesn’t like a pitch that was called, he talks about the body language of the pitcher and how he’s not going to get calls now. However, I cannot recall a time where the ump actually stopped giving pitches to a pitcher for body language.
That being said – Cueto appears to be a bit of a headcase…
Also – Happ is officially in the rotation, with Park out…great news…
the not-so-great news for Happ is that his first start will be at Yankee Stadium…tough luck.
Doesn’t seem exactly fair does it Pete? The other thing is that the Phils didn’t stretch him out at all so Happ might only be good for around 60 pitches. Let’s hope that Happ can make the most out of the fact that the Yanks have never seen him before.
One win in the books. Now we see if either Blanton or Moyer can give us something so we can win the series and beat your prediction.
Should we be worried about Madson yet?
I know this has nothing to do with the Phils, but this is our current baseball discussion spot. Also, I’m probably the only one who remembers or even cares about it, but I find it to be an interesting discussion so I’ll mention it here.
What the heck am I talking about? I found an article on dugoutcentral.com that ties into a topic that Pete posted last summer about whether or not Curt Schilling is worthy of induction into the Hall of Fame. In the comments I brought up Nolan Ryan. While admitting that he most definitely deserves to be in the Hall (the strikeouts, the no-hitters, the Cy Young awards, etc…), I pointed out that some of his numbers, like WHIP—-mostly due to his ridiculous walk totals, were mediocre, while others, like wins, he amassed through longevity. That led me to bring up Jamie Moyer. Very few would see him as Hall-worthy, yet 250 wins (he had better get there tonight) is nothing to sneeze at, especially in this era of baseball. Problem is, basically ALL of Jamie’s numbers are due to longevity, as he was never really dominant in any particular year or stretch of years.
Sorry if this seems out of place. Thanks for your indulgence.
One long Harang. Sometimes the opponent deserves a tip of the cap. Impressive starter performance.
“Gramps” Moyer, lucky to hold Reds to 3 runs in 6 innings on 9 hits and a walk. Quick Werth wall-ball scoop & chuck, Utley deep relay positioning & strike to plate saved further damage.
Joe Bob Blanton tomorrow … Pete, your prediction is on schedule.
Just checked Micah Owings’ career stats against us. We haven’t fared very well against him, so it’ll probably be another low scoring game. As the cliches go, we need Blanton to “keep us in the game” and “give us a chance to win”. Gotta beat your prediction, Pete. We’re on the road, after all.
Micah Owings is the best hitting pitcher you’ll see this year. That’s a big benefit for the Reds, like playing with a DH. Career .312 hitter with .908 OPS.
gotta win today (and prove me wrong) – this would be the fourth time already this season that we won the first game of a series and lost the last 2. that really annoys me. Blanton’s gotta step up.
From philly.com, looks like Charlie is saying “F it” and seeing how Owings fares against 7 straight lefties. Should be fun seeing Matt Stairs out in RF and protecting Howard.
Dobbs and Stairs in the lineup
Here’s the lineup. It’s a 12.35 start today.
Phils
Rollins SS
Utley 2b
Ibanez LF
Howard 1B
Stairs RF
Victorino CF
Dobbs 3b
Ruiz C
Blanton RHP
ha – that’s awesome. I don’t think any other team in baseball could do that.
Yeah, if we only had a left-handed hitting catcher, like back in 1990 and 1991 when we had two——-Darren Daulton and Darrin Fletcher——–and we’d have an entire lineup, minus the pitcher of course, of left-handed hitters.
Weird that we had two left-handed hitting catchers, who coincidentally both threw right-handed, named Darren(in) on the team at the same time, isn’t it?
No Votto again today. Owings is rattled against all of these lefties; pitch count at 60 through 2 innings, maybe we don’t even have to face him at the plate!
Let’s go Blanton!
What a crazy top of the 2nd inning, huh? Walk to Dobbs……Dobbs picked off first……Walk to Blanton…….Rollins single (now 2 hits away from 1500)……..Stupid throw to 2nd base and Blanton goes to 3rd base………..Rollins steals 2nd base (his 300th steal)………..Utley singles on on 0-2 count to drive in Blanton and Rollins……..Double by Ibanez drives in Utley…….the Reds get the bullpen up already………Owings strikes out Howard to end it but he’s already up to 58 pitches.
Glad to see I was way wrong about us having trouble hitting, and scoring off of, Owings. Now we need Blanton to stay focused and keep the Reds quiet.
Owings is out of the game, but they let him bat in the bottom of the 3rd. Of course he got a hit. Small consolation for getting knocked around today. Nice job by our offense. BTW, Utley is now 3-3 after his home run and only needs a triple for the cycle.
Looking ahead, hopefully this will help us build some momentum heading to NY. We’re going to need it, as the Yanks have won 8 in a row (we’ll see what happens tonight) and we’ll be facing Petite and CC.
Holy smokes! Easy come easy go I guess. So much for momentum. If not for a fantastic play by Rollins, the Reds would still be pounding on Blanton. Gotta figure we’re hitting for him in the top of the 6th, as he’s up to 97 pitches. Go figure.
if we hadn’t won the series last year, management would be getting pounded for the Blanton trade. He looks TERRIBLE. He’s missing some velocity too.
If we need two more starters, we have no choice but to start making decisions about who in the minors is expendable (and has trade value obviously), because we will need to make a deal with someone.
For example, Feliz has an option for next year. It sure looks like, with his back issues resolved, we will be able to count on him next year. (Feliz just hit a 2-run pinch-hit double as I’m typing this, btw) Does this mean that Donald’s true value to us lies in what he can bring in a trade?
(Rollins just got his 1500th hit with his RBI single in the 7th, again while I’m typing this)
Forgot to mention…….I hate to toot my own horn, but I really nailed this game, didn’t I? We wouldn’t hit Owings……low scoring…….yeah.
so when are the “Ibanez is on steroids” questions going to start? (now, I guess)
Escalona threw nothing but fastball in his 1-2-3 9th. Good sign that he can get people out w/o his secondary stuff.
I raised the question over the weekend, Pete. A legitimate one given Ibanez’ advanced age, thickly-cabled forearms, spiked numbers and a decade and a half of findings of associates’ impure play. In his case, maybe; maybe not. The suspicion is real – unfortunately.
Until MLB implements Olympic testing standards, everyone on the field is a suspect. I honestly believe they’re still protecting players by not testing for HGH. Players say its too much of an invasion of privacy… Oh, please. I get my privacy violated in more ways than one at my annual physical (pardon me for the disturbing imagery).
Following Manny blow, when Dodgers were in town recently, Bowa said that taint and suspicion cloud won’t go away until blood testing is instituted. I agree, and would add “uniformly and regularly.”
don’t really get why blood testing is such a big deal for players if they aren’t doing anything.
false positives maybe? I obviously don’t get the science of it and what the people would be looking for in the blood.
either way – I think all fans are in support of blood testing. (until everyone starts hitting 20 HRs again and they get bored)
Since we’re on this topic, I found another article on dugoutcentral.com: The Way I See It by Desi Relaford. There is nothing particularly revelatory about it, but it’s worth a read. Plus, Desi is an ex-Phil and I loved how HK said his name……DES—EE in a staccato emphasizing both syllables.
Coming on the heels of Ibanez’ name being brought up here, this part of the article caught my eye:
“Based on history and what I’ve seen in my 17 years of pro ball, there is a natural progression that a player makes. You start at a level then gradually increase to a peak. Sometimes the increase is a bit more moderate. After the peak hopefully you have a plateau for a spell and then it’s back down you go. Not these days! Man we’re talking about the steroid era. You see guys go from a .280 12 homer guys that jump to .300 with 30 homers. What happened? Oh I see, I guess it all just came together for ya huh? I mean, I’ve seen guys who hit like they were swinging a USA Today and return in one off-season and be considered a legitimate power threat. Or what about the guys that are hitting growth spurts in their mid thirties and reinventing themselves? That is some bull$%^#!”
I’m not saying that Ibanez falls into this category. I mean, he has been a productive player over the last few years. It’s just that any time you see a guy’s numbers take this kind of a jump, especially when he is in his late 30s, you start to wonder, don’t you?