The Pirates ineptitude over the last decade and a half has been well chronicled and makes perfect sense, but the Phillies inability to win in Pittsburgh is just flat-out strange and the strange-ness continued over the weekend.
We all rejoiced as the Phils trotted out their full line-up for the first time all season, but said line-up produced jack, and was quickly disbanded with the injury to Jimmy Rollins.
Still – the Marlins and Braves didn’t exactly light it up, and we still sit 3 games up in the NL East.
2011: 35-24
2010: 31-28
2009: 35-24
2008: 34-25
2007: 30-29
Series WPA
Top 3
1. Cole Hamels, 0.455
2. Mike Stutes, 0.270
3. Roy Halladay, 0.236
Bottom 3
1. Danys Baez, -0.371
2. Kyle Kendrick, -0.297
3. Ryan Howard, -0.238
Good News
- Domonic Brown – it’s exciting to have a young prospect again
- Do we have the top-2 pitchers in the NL in Halladay and Hamels? Let’s take a look at some all-encompassing stats…
BBRef WAR
1. Halladay, 3.8
2. Hamels, 2.8
3. Jurrjens, 2.7
4. Lohse, 2.7
5. Kershaw, 2.6
FanGraphs WAR
1. Halladay, 3.4
2. Hamels, 2.6
3. Kershaw, 2.3
4. D. Hudson, 2.3
5. Lincecum, 2.2
FIP (ERA scale)
1. Halladay, 2.22
2. Hamels, 2.47
3. J. Garcia, 2.51
4. Johnson, 2.56
5. Kershaw, 2.67
Hamels currently sits 1st in the NL in WHIP (0.97), 2nd in W (if you care), 3rd in K/BB, 5th in IP/S, 5th in K, 5th in GB ratio, and 9th in ERA. Certainly in the discussion for 2nd best NL starter to-date behind big Roy (and yes, with JJ’s injury, he’s first).
Bad News
- Our team OPS is .693. Last year it was .743, 2009 it was .781, 2008 it was .770, 2007 it was .812.
- By the way, .693 would put an individual hitter at 117th in the majors, just ahead of Emilio Bonafacio. 117th!
Prospect Update
I am working on a full-out update on the system, so I’m skipping this…again…
Series Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers at Phillies
Probable Pitchers
Monday (7:05): Lee (1.6 WAR) vs. LHP Ted Lilly (1.0 WAR)
Tuesday (7:05): Oswalt (1.7 WAR) vs. RHP Rubby De La Rosa (0.2 WAR)
Wednesday (1:35): Hamels (2.8 WAR) vs. RHP Hiroki Kuroda (1.5 WAR)
3 questions for the series
- Will Hiroki Kuroda continue his wizardry against us? (4 starts, 0.68 ERA, 0.52 WHIP)
- Will Dom Brown get a start against a lefty?
- How bad is Jimmy’s injury?
Series Expectations
Hard to like the way we are playing right now. Lee has been frustrating with his big innings, and hopefully he can put together a dominant, complete, start soon. According to FanGraphs’ pitch values, his cutter and change-up have not been nearly as effective as they have in the past. This could be location, or when he is choosing the throw it, but it’s not velocity.
As for the Dodgers, at first look, I wasn’t entirely sure why they aren’t better. They have an excellent rotation led by Kershaw and Billingsley (who we magically miss) and they have two really good offensive threats in Kemp and Ethier. A deeper look shows that after those two guys, they have NOTHING on offense (Jamey Carroll is their 3rd best offensive player) and their bullpen (4.47 ERA) is not what it once was.
So… our starters should make guys not named Ethier or Kemp beat us, and our hitters should work to get the starters out of the game. I think we bounce back and win 2 of 3.
I think Ethier is 3 for 17 lifetime against Roy O, so I like our chances against Rubby de la Rosa (is this a real person?). Are you sure it is not an alias for “Vicente Padilla”?
Hi Pete, I don’t mean to ask you to do something that might be a chore to you, but are you interested in including in your report the two young shortstops that the Phils signed in the last draft? I think they were both 16/17 y/o Dominican shortstops.
I’ve been tracking the Phils middle infield/catching depth ever since they started using their farm system to obtain Halladay/Lee etc.
I note that they selected another raw, athletic outfielder with their first pick. Seems like the system is overflowing with this kind of player along with pitchers. I clearly understand the need to stockpile pitchers, but isn’t the system low on infielders and catchers ? Maybe their new strategy is to stock up on these athletic guys and then trade them for other position players.
Larry Greene is raw and an outfielder, but he’s different from recent picks (Hewitt, Gose, Hudson, etc…).
He is not a toolsy athletic type outfielder, rather he is a monster power hitter. He had the most power of any high schooler in the draft. The other aspects of his game right now are so-so, so he’s a project in that respect.
But, our system right now is really lacking power, and Greene will sign quickly and for slot money, so it was a good, not great, first pick I think.
Joof-
I remember those guys, but don’t have their names handy. Do you know them?
I don’t think they have played yet
As much as I like watching good pitching (esp from C Hamels, Romero from a few years back etc), I really miss the Phils offense of old. It’s hard to watch games not knowing if the Phils will score even a run or 2.
It definitely is nice when we’re scoring 5, 6, 7 runs… But I really like these tight games. Adds to the drama of it. For me, anyway. Makes each play seem like it counts that much more.
This Roman Quinn selection appears to be another in the long line of impressive athletic talents the Phils have a way of drafting. He looks like he could play short (seems to have an excellent arm, and all sources are real high on his range), but the common theme of outfield potential seems very believable. Video sampling lends to a first impression of a young Kirby Puckett in the way of power for a currently shorter, somewhat filled out body. Bat speed seems good, maybe a slight uppercut. Definitely does not look like a classic shortstop stereotype, and the suspecion is they did not address the infield prblem with this selection. One would think that if he honors FSU committment, he’ll go pretty high in a year or two, but you wouldn’t think Phils’d invest a high pick in a non signable.
Just for fun, chances of a good look at spring training someday, 9 out of 10
chances of seeing MLB, 7.5
chance of pension qualifying length of career 7
chance of playing in the all star game someday: 5-6
Looks like a player to me.
Today is a wonderful day to talk about trade rumors. You could slip anything in and it would pass by with 11 out of every 10 eyes focussed on the young talent that dreams of achievement. But as I watched the nee Brooklyn club last night, and clung to the mystery of their financial staus, I couldn’t help but think of Frank Wren, and how he should be on the phone to Nick Coletti more hours than a day brings to the table.
The Braves, mired in we’re not hitting, and we’re still only now 4 games from first place have had this idea for the last couple years that Nate McClouth is ane veryday major league outfielder. Not to say he’s not, but it’s a certainty that he’s taking his time proving it. The Dodgers, strung to the gills in financial paralysis are more 2 man hitting capability in messers Kemp and Ethier than they were when Willie Davis won the headlines, and Tommy the games. Both LA guys are not far from big contracts, or free agency. How that effects them financially is pending new ownership, but if they become a seller, sell is sell. The Braves are chest deep in young talent. Much like last year, when the Braves tried everything to send Bobby Cox away with a playoff appearance, Atlanta hearts are now geared toward doing similarly for Chipper Jones. I don’t even so much care which one, Kemp or Ethier, if I’m Atlanta, I’m trying like hell to steal one of them and improve an offense mired in a very Uggla first half.
One rival scout tells Stark that Josh Willingham is the only Oakland player he’d recommend to his team. Scouts are bearing down on the A’s as possible sellers.>>
People might be rather amazed at what a number of teams will give up for a bat in this hitting oppressed year. Like a Willingham, or how coy the Dodgers could productively be in dangling Kemp, or Eithier. Trade rumors used to scream of bullpen help, and starters. This year, different story. And with what seems to be a scarcity of available bats, the asking price creeps higher.
It’s not like Ruby de la Rosa carries the same reputation that a Roger Clemens, or Doc Gooden did once upon a time. Particularly in Clemens case, he matured into taking part in some of the storied matchups in baseball lore.
Clemens vs. Bonds, Clemens vs. McGwire, that sort of stuff would grab your attention off any diversinary activity.
But that was typically in more matured years, when any and all partipants were already of superstar recognition.
You could project many, many potential similar level matchups like that and be wrong an awful lot.
But tonight, I have a feeling that we might look back on de la Rosa versus Dom Brown as we knew them facing each other when. De la Rosa might not ever make you forget the Dodgers greatest pitchers ever, but that might be because of the extent of that greatness. Righthander or not, I suspect this kid provides all the challenge the Phils want for tonight. Brownie is as locked in as Al Capone was when he presented the give me your money memo to tellers across Chicagoland. Or at least they tell me you better be focussed if you go the armed robbery route.
Much like the enjoyment of draft day, the anticipation of this match, and how it potentially grows with time is one of the great fascinations of the game. I can’t wait.
Ken – are you getting a bit carried away with Dom Brown? I would like to see if he can stay in the majors by this time next month. He has had a nice week. But that is all – just a week.
I’m real, real impressed with the quality of at bat Brownie is presenting. I see a lot of potential. I am hesitant to guess at how the 2 mesh down the road, but I feel pretty optimistic about it. A more appropriate question might be am I overstating what he’s done since coming back. Perosnally, I don’t think so, bet an objective 3rd party might fairly say yes. I unequivocally believe he’s here to stay, unlike your next month feeling. Now he’ll face some challenges against BOS, Oak and SEA later this month, and might find challenging Nolasco and maybe Josh (if he’s back) harder, but I believe he’ll hold his own.
Bottom line answer, I don’t think I am.
Brown looks a lot better than I thought he would. His swing is going to give him basically the same soft spots as Howard and he has less raw power, but he’s got better plate discipline and is a better contact hitter. Actually reminds me a lot of werth.
Nice to see Lee put up a good outing. I also miss the offense. While it may lead to more drama with each game, it really makes it difficult to talk about the team much. It isn’t like the giants who seem to not score much but win in dramatic fashion with late offensive heroics. Or what Pujols has done recently. I would be fine winning 3-2 if the boys would show some late inning clutch hitting. But this 6 singles and get 2-3 runs and hope to hang on is B-O-R-I-N-G. I mean 3 games in pittsburgh with a total of 2 extra base hits and no HRs? Five games and counting now with no homers?
Baseball is a long season and we need diversions and different angles to talk about from June tthrough August. Will howard hit 40+, will chase get the 20/100 level? Will Rollins or victorino be the best leadoff guy. Now it is just all about whether they will stay healthy, their individual performance is pretty much secondary or tertiary. Its Rollins knee, chase’s knee, victorinos hammy. If you remove the offense from the entire discussion, things get pretty stale.
I mean 3 games in Pittsburgh with a total of 2 extra base hits and no HRs?>>
which, don’t forget, took place in a 2 loss 3 game set.
Persoanlly, I’m not too in tune with style. As the original Bill Parcells once said, “Winning is the only thing.”
Either plot has compelling attention grabbers, but winning is what really matters.
I also notice that D Brown has very good at bats. Last year, while acknowledging he struck out a lot, he worked higher pitch counts than most of his teammates.
Pete, here are the names: Francisco Silva, Anderson Gonzalez. A blogger on Phuture Fans said their contracts were both voided due to an age dispute. All of other signs point to the contracts being legal.
If anyone has been following the draft today, figured I’d throw in my 2 cents from Gainesville and let everyone know that Matt Campbell isn’t a pick to write home about in the 24th round…I covered the Gator baseball team all season and they had a great bullpen but he was barely part of it. He did not throw in any meaningful spots all season and only pitched in 15.1 innings with an ERA over 5 and his batting avg. against was over .300…not sure what the Phils saw in him/ when they even saw him….
one way or another, there must be something they say. Do you have any radar gun readings or anything? I mean based on the numbers you posted, he doesn’t sound like anything at all, but there’s gotta be something there.
He has an arm but what is interesting about him is that he played his way onto the Gators from the school’s club team so there really isn’t much of a track record on him…last year (his junior season) was his first season and he was drafted by the Reds despite giving up 12 runs in 11 innings all seaoson…he struck some guys out early this season but then tailed off…to tell the truth he pitched so sparingly this season that I wasn’t around to see him pitch when a gun was nearby, but I could tell he had above average velo on his fb…he probably needs to refine his offspeed stuff and because he hadn’t his innings were limited this year…some guys didn’t catch up to his fastball at first but then figured out he didn’t have much else…maybe could be of some value down the line if he gets some good coaching….
I had checked a couple links on him prior to your reply. His H/9 is ridiculously astromical. Seems to be able to throw strikes consistently. You know these scouts make recommendations that don’t work out,sometimes for mental reasons as opposed to baseball skills, but its now 2 orgs in 2 years that saw enough to draft him, so we’ll see.
That’s terrific that you got to cover the Gators this year. Chuck Cooperstein, 2-3 years at WIP graduated from there, and has developed into a very reputable voice of the Dallas Mavs. 1 guy doesn’t make a program, but I assume their communications department is good. And you get a far more insightful perspective on various aspects of The Game than many fans do. Had the privelege myself, and hope it’s a completely saturating experience for ya.
Yeah its been a good experience and I’ve actually been doing it for the radio station that is located in our journalism school…hoping to get an internship somewhere in Philly next summer…can’t take another summer of Florida temperatures….
Is it me or is Juan Samuel a horrible third base coach?
Dude consistently runs guys into obvious outs.
I’ve noticed an inordinate amount of rundowns on that side of the field too, at least early on in the year.
Appropos of nothing, I wonder how often Howard changes his batting gloves. They must get funky pretty quick with all that spitting on them between each swing.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…does anyone have any real confidence that this game isn’t over?
maybe if we are lucky we can go another 6 games without a HR. 5 more hits – nice job fellows, one more than last night?
T3: Gordon on 2nd, Blake on 1st, Ethier up, 1-1 game … Howard nowhere near bag, Oswalt throws over as though Howard is holding runner. Can’t happen, but it did. Who’s responsible – #44, #6, a positioning doofus in the dugout or a combination? Little League action, but big matter in outcome.
Flash Gordon lives! And supersonic speed kills.
Roy’s my favorite Phils starter but can’t applaud last night’s performance … 8 hits, 2 walks, aforementioned mix-up, 4 earned runs in 6 innings. Stuff looked mediocre, as in chuck & duck.
Victorino leads Phils offense with 118 OPS+.
Not one regular deserves all-star spot imo. Deserving pitchers: Halladay, Hamels, Madson (though 26 innings is a little short).
Not one regular deserves all-star spot imo>>
While I could see Chipper getting the nod at 3B, do you even mean Polanco doesn’t desreve to be a backup?
Roy’s my favorite Phils starter>>
and this is based on?
Polanco? Nice little player; much love administered locally for sound fundamentals. A starter on my late-night pizza squad … station-to-station speed. Now a singles-hitter (12 extra base hits), 29 runs scored in 265 plate appearances (subpar for top-third of order), has hit into 8 DPs (leads team), just 108 OPS+; good glove - for what he reaches.
NL 3B consists of the worst field of candidates in my lifetime. In batter’s box, D-Backs’ Ryan Roberts is performing the best, BA aside. Ol’ man Chipper, creaky Scotty or rolly Polly won’t embarrass the trade if selected. Nobody at that position is really an all-star this year; Ozark’s “blanket” theory applies.
Oswalt appreciation is based on his career of a certain excellence (liked him from start) and my observation of a certain humility. Like Gary Cooper: quiet substance, quick gun. I like the way he conducts himself, goes at hitters, plays left field, covers for his family, doesn’t peacock.
Dee Gordon might not hit 10 HR for his career (had 7 in 1,544 minor league ABs, don’t know how many were inside-the-parkers) but if he can maintain a .350-.370 OBP, he is going to be a menace.
I can’t recall seeing someone that fast on the basepaths.
In 2009 in the minors, he had 73 steals.
Flash Gordon lives! >>
I really like Tom Gordon. I thought he gave a great effort to the game, had a better than fair career, and had the chance to talk to him a couple times as a caller on 2 way talk radio, so there was a human connection of sorts, as opposed to just imagery. So I was really happy for him last night. By the second at bat, certainly the 3rd, kiddo’s act was getting on my nerves, but he really looks like a fun guy to watch, speed and all. Sometimes, and I guess they say it has to do with MILB conditions, at least defensively, high error counts need to be considered appropriately. But Dee has racked up some ridiculous defensive numbers. 24 errors in 59 games, then 34 in 127, followed by 37 in 133, and this year, 11 errors in 50. So hopefully, that improves. But I love the speed.
I spoke with Chuck Daly on the radio once. Now I refuse Joe Dumars’ calls. Some people are pests. ;)
Ok… Let’s see if we can play like a major league team tonite boys
Here’s a scouting report on Dee Gordon. Nothing particularly revealing in it that isn’t apparent from his play last night.
http://espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post/_/id/284/scouting-report-on-dee-gordon
Cole came in with a WHIP of 0.97. With the 1 hit, 0 BB 3 innings so far, I’d guess he’s down to 0.93, 0.94. Be pretty cool to get below 0.90. I think Ogandi leads the bigs at 0.87 or 0.88.
O/U tonight ranges from 7-7.5. Are they kidding me?
Unfortunately WHIP doesn’t win games. Runs do. Maybe we will get one tonight but I won’t count on it.
There she blows….
That’s a fair example of some clutch hitting by RyHo. It’s the 8th time of his 13 dingers that his homer was fpr the first run of the game. That’s pretty good, or doesn’t speak too well for the offense as a whole.
well, Phillie run of the game.
Let’s go Chooch.
As much as I love valdez’ defense, moments like this make me cringe.
Don’t do it Wilson, because lifetime passes expired last night. Don’t do it.
That’s a tough call there. It’s hard pulling Martinez after he tripled previosuly, and I guess you have to let him bat, but the way runs are at a premium, I might have wasted Utley right there. Tough call.
Looks like Kendrick’s fimal start (for now) will be tomorrow. Vanimal threw 7 shutout inning sofr the Pigs tonight.
Guessing he starts 1 of the 2 next Wed against the Fish.
Cole will shut it down with 8 more good innings that frop the ERA to 2.58, and the WHIP to 0.95. The dude is gonna be one expensive sign.
Deserving pitchers: Halladay, Hamels, Madson (though 26 innings is a little short). >>
In anticipation of Madson wrapping save 14 (?) in the waning moments of tonight’s game, he may have a tough road making the all star team. Consider may the operative word. At least closing. Brian Wilson might carry the Ryan Howard syndrome this year. last year, Joey Votto was so clearly worthy of pre internet balloting for the final all star berth, and Charlie took RyHo instead. Which, as RyHo was his guy, was at least kinda okay, if not overwhelmingly right. I believe Brian, injury touched as his year’s been, still has 17 saves, which I’ll assum, perhaps wrongly is some sort of indicator he’s had a good year. Bochy may take Brian as a result.
Now Madson, of course, is also a terrific setup man, and while the 1-2 setup combo of Venters (absolute lock) and Madson as setuppers (don’t check Webster’s) is awesome, they may get into the every club has to be represented stuff.
All that said, I believe he will make it, and should as he’s had a rock solid first half. But it might not be so easy.
What a cross of themes tonight. Well, with some very subjective thoughts, and a poundage and a half of guesswork involved.
No doubt, morning reaction to the Cole Hamels effort will trigger more discussion of just who is the Phils best pitchers, and if the words Cy Young come up, I’d almost guarantee something will be missing from the discussion. No doubt that if the season ended today, both Hamels and Doc would be serious, serious contenders.
But once again tonight, down in Florida, this Johnny Venters cat continued his highly dominant, and even more so outstanding season. Assuming he holds up, which it’s safe to say his a risky if, the guy could pitch enough innings to make traditionalists at least think about giving the CY to a reliever when more than 1 starter has had a deserving season.
But this isn’t about Venters and the CY. What it’s really about is personal suspicion that things are going pretty less thn good in the Atlanta clubhouse these days.
For example. The illustrious leader, one Chipper Jones today suggested that Jason Heyward needs to get back in the Braves lineup even at less than 100 per cent. This is fine logic if you are talking to ballplayers from 400 years ago, but such thinking isn’t necessarily sommon these days. You can bet your bottom dollar,and borrowed capital as well that if Chipper went on the record with that, which he did, he did it with the backing of a representative portion of the clubhouse.
This would not be the first public revelation of some mixed feeling in the Braves clubhouse on the way things are shaking out. Roundabout 3 weeks ago, in a radio interview, AJC beat guy David O’Brien hardly, but still paraphrasingly said, “They won’t go on the record and say so, but people in that clubhouse have told me they’d prefer seeing Venters to Kimbrel in the closing position”
While the Braves have recovered to lead 3-2 in the 10th, Kimbrel coughed up another game tonight, yielding 2 to the Fish in the 9th. After Venters lowered his ERA to 0.48. I said 0.48. That’s spelled 0.48.
This is not to even touch how Fredi Gonzalez should do to setup his pen. It’s portrayl of a pretty strong hunch that things are not going real good in the Atlanta clubhouse. A 7 game win streak might cure some of that, maybe all of it, at least at Band Aid level. But for a club that soaked in more than a lot of late spring praise as this that and the other thing, and while bumps in the raod occur in a 162 game play, things seem really tenuous. Perhaps we’ll see if Fredi Gonzalez was a good choice for that job out of this. .
#Braves’ Kimbrel has a 4.70 ERA and 3 blown saves in past 16 apps, and this is the 4th time that he allowed 2 runs during that stretch.
nobody will even “think about” giving the Cy young to a setup guy.
wrong again.
I think if baseball writers and journalists are diligent enough, it’s very possible.
Venters’ sinker-slider (I say that bcos I can hardly tell which is which, cos they both look filthy) has such a unique angle at which it dives that, so far I have not seen any ML player that has been able to hit it. It’s like the guy has a virtually unhittable pitch. Bad swings or misses with this guy. Stats don’t do him justice. Last time I remember such over-powering with one pitch was the Big Unit.
Well it’s still early anyway.
Venters “pitch” (as you said jkay, it defies description) is the most devastating stand-alone pitch I’ve seen in a long time.
I was watching a Braves game this year with the straight-on camera angle and I could not believe how much movement was on a 94-95mph pitch.
Can’t imagine he would get any first place votes for the Cy – but he could get 3rd-6th place votes IF he maintains his numbers.
Yeah, it’s early, but geez, the guy has thrown by far and away more innings than any other reliever, and in his last 35 innings, his ERA is 0.25. I never said he’d win it, but based on what’s gone down, you gotta figure he gets some consideration. The Braves are at least 8 out without him, and thus, you almost could justify some MVP ballot consideration for him as well.
Regarding Pete’s 3rd to 5th place CY possibility, last year, I thought there were 10 places you voted for, and I checked it, and pretty sure it was actually only 1 1st, 2nd and 3rd guys voted for. Might be remembering incorrectly, but if it is just 3, it does hurt him, but he still might garner some votes
Cole Hamels comes up small again. Couldn’t even finish the whole game. Bum.
Kids today. Back in my day, he would have finished the game then went home and chopped wood for the fire to make dinner
Cole he talent. Cole pitch good. Wonder what Cole pitch if not for dumb Loney swing, 3-0 count; Cole lip movin’ after Miles pinch-hit ya know. Vise gettin’ grippier. One more bad turn – who know what happen? Cole da mink stole hearts, loses track of his some, not as much as before doh.
this is strictly for Jurnee
http://www.whyy.org/about/internships.html
To me, Hamels clearly our 1A ace since mid April. I like them all, but he is my favorite of the big 4 to root for as well – probably because he is home-grown and I would love to see him survive the efforts of the underbelly of the Philly fandom that wanted him out of town because he had some growing up to do. Imagine that – 25 years old and had some growing up to do. His maturation, emotional and spiritual and physical, over the last several years is incredible. Hope he doesn’t lose out to Cy Young because of the dreaded split votes with Halladay. The pupil has passed by the Master. Good to see – another fallout of the great Halladay trade.
Confucius say, beware conclusions before game 63.
While I respect Confucius and even visited one of his temples in Beijing just several months ago (although I am not a follower), my conclusion encompasses about 163 games now. Take away the April and May for Halladay in 2010 and Cole has been a better pitcher since June 2010. Even throw in the Halladay perfect game against Cincy in the playoffs. Reds have said that what Cole did to them in their yard was more impressive. With 4 pitches and confidence, he is Halladay, only slightly better and nastier (his pitches have more velocity). All IMHO of course.
When Bartlett’s Book of Quotations springs it’s next release, the only question is whether this goes anaonymous, or is credited to the actual quotee.
<< You know who leads the NL East in runs scored? The Mets. You want offense? Go be a Mets fan. You want to win? Stick with the Phils and STFU>>
viva la common sense.
In a COMPLETELY unrelated note – you should all follow ReclinerGM on twitter…
http://twitter.com/#!/reclinergm
I would love to see him survive the efforts of the underbelly of the Philly fandom that wanted him out of town because he had some growing up to do. Imagine that – 25 years old and had some growing up to do. His maturation, emotional and spiritual and physical, over the last several years is incredible.>>
First of all, while I’m not too quick the trade Hamels backers or the rocket scientists that booed him early this season, I will share my recall that any enthusiasm for trading Cole was limited to conversation to acquire Doc. Scorn me if my recollection is weak, but it wasn’t like trade Cole for the sake of it. Sure, some scarce morons were popping off like that, but I don’t think there was a collective underbelly that exsisted as described.
Secondly, let’s not get carried away and describe Cole’s maturity as incredible. Sure, it’s good, and it’s nice, but most 25 year olds grow up at some point.
Scorn me if my recollection is weak, but it wasn’t like trade Cole for the sake of it. >>
By the end of the 2009 WS it was pretty rough. Alotta jabber about him never being a good pitcher again…headcase..etc. Yet it was a highly predictable off year after the heady stuff of 2008, his age, the toll on his arm in 2008, and the overall natural progression of elite pitchers. I am not saying you can’t say he underperformed, but context and big picture were lacking. Plus, alot of fans forgot pretty quickly what he did for this town – not just him but he was a huge part.
<<Secondly, let’s not get carried away and describe Cole’s maturity as incredible. Sure, it’s good, and it’s nice, but most 25 year olds grow up at some point.>>
In the small world of 25 year old sports stars, your statement is highly debateable. Most never have to grow up until they leave the sport. We aren’t talking average 25-year olds here.
Fair statement on the 25 year olds within the sport, maybe even professional athletics. I was indeed speaking more braodly including all 25 year olds. I wanna say LeBron James is 25, so we’ll see how much he matures in the coming days. Not comping Cole and LeBron, just thought of it as an age reference, and LeBron may not be 25.
Also give you points on a Halladay-Hamels debate if you include 2nd half of last year, but I still couldn’t feel confident that the student’s passed the master. Nice choice though, huh? Both P’s on the cap, and all.
<<My final ballot for the NL Cy Young went Adam Wainwright, Tim Lincecum, and Dan Haren.>>
That’s from a Will Carroll piece in November, 2009 on his CY ballot for that year. So unless there’s been a chnage in procedure, looks like you do get 3 candidate ballots. That’s a really tough barrier for a reliver to crack, though it can be done, witness bedrock one year, and a scarcity of others, no doubt. But if this trend continues, I’m certain writers will at least think seriously of putting Vanters on their ballot. Setup guy or not.
And the best lefthander in the National league is…
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/which-nl-southpaw-is-greatest/
This is probably more far fetched on 2 counts than the space I’ll devote to it, but I’ll give any readers an easy chance to opt out early by headlinging that the thesis of this is should the Phils have Miguel Tejada on their radar.
I guess the first question is whether there is even an opening. Back in the spring, the Phils took a look at Luis Castillo. Chase was going to be out for an unspecified period, so there was a clear opening and need. Thus, there was justifiable reason to look at a guy reputed to be over the hill, but let’s see what he’s got..
Wilson Valdez has become a minor folk hero of sorts, but when you open your eyes and stare reality head on, it’s a pretty easy conclusion that he’s nothing special as a backup. He’s maybe okay, and he’s not a waste on a roster, but not a great asset. Michael Martinez is probably here for the year, and despite his Rule 5 protection, like Valdez, is probably here unless something glaringly better that represents improvement comes along. Of course, talent so superior isn’t functioning in a utility role.
Tejada might become available pretty soon. Pablo Sandoval is supposed to be reactivated as early as today, and the feeling you get from the Giants lineups of late, consistency being as it is, is that Brandon Crawford has played his way into the SS job. One can’t be sure what Brian Sabean’s roster move will be to make room for Sandoval, but talk of Tejada getting cut has been fairly present.
I doubt I’d even be considering this with Tejada’s pathetic numbers this year, sub .600 OPS, .223 average, an obvious loss of speed at 37 years old. But there is an element of intruige to the guy. And it’s not like he’s the only veteran in the game that has gotten off to a crummy offensive start. He’d be available for the minimum, and has shown signs of life of late with 7 hits in his last 21 ABs, including 2 doubles last night against the Reds.
I don’t even know that his name as a free agent would turn the Phils heads. But it’s not the sort of prospective transaction that I’d give a quick no to like Milton Bradley.
so are you interested in an extra bat or you’re thinking of shopping for Jimmy’s replacement ahead of time?
The baseball gods would immediately ban anyone who dared think of Tejada as a regular again, let alone for the team they root for.
I’m more wondering if he has anything left that he’ll match up somewhere. I suspect he does. In that regard, he might be an asset here, but I don’t see it happening. He’d be an improvement over Valdez, let alone Martinez, but I doubt the Phils think so enough to make such a move.
They still call it MLBTraderumors.com, but for about 3 weeks now, they might as well have renamed it Twinsrumors.com. That’s how long it’s been since the baseball following populous decided that the Minnesota Twins were sellers.
The Twins were playing every game as though it were a playoff game against the Yankees. Their record had dropped to a Twinberwolvish .333. The dreaded duo of Capps and Nathan was making a valiant effort to lead the league in blown saves. Justin Morneau was treating pitched balls with the tenderness of the concussion driven headache he had felt a need for. Joe Mauer was looking to replace Joltin Joe in Simon and Garfunkel’s next hit.
All this was compounded by the angel watching over the Cleveland Tribe deciding the city needed some angelic loving after LeBron had ditched the shores of Lake Erie.
And it’s hardly like the Twins have turned it around. Carl Pavano and Fransisco Luriano have put together seasons that wouldn’t qualify them for rotation spots on the 1962 New York Mets. But they have crept to within 11 games of the lead, even though they still have 642 teams to pass to get to first place in the division.
But suddenly, there is at least 1 element of hope for the Twinkies. If you look at their current standing, you’ll find they have played 40 games on the road. And 22 games at home. Never mind that they are 7-15 at home so far. That would kill any hope going down in Twinland.
It’s a helluva longshot. But considering their tradition, you just can’t help but think that the Twins, through a lot of home games, and their historically proven know how to win might at least tease with a kinda sorta back in it level before it’s over. Rushing them to seller status might be one of the bigger overreactions to this baseball season.
Phillyfan,
FYI, the definition, or standard of the student passing by the master is this
<< Rookie Dee Gordon, in two games, has scored more runs (2) and gotten more at-bats (6) than his dad, Tom, who pitched 21 years. >>
Courteousy Bob Nightengale, USA Today
I’ve never seen anything like this. I’ve seen it a lot, but who memory banks things like this. Here we are, in a Sweet 16 stretch with 16 winnable games. So we’re 6-7. Yet, Florida decides to lose 7, maybe 8 straight, and the Braves are doing like okay or so, and the standings look decent enough. But now, Prado goes on the DL with however you spell a steph inphection. Raise your hand if you wanna win the division. What a funky year.
Contreras has no business coming into a game with guys on. Even if we have a lead.
Especially not if we have a lead
U mean Romero?
Yeah. Sorry, I can only be partially responsible for myself during beer week.
Chooch.
barehanded. clutch.
Utley with the textbook tag. good way to end a not-so perfect game.
Nice to see Stutes & bastardo finish it out. Clearly a changing of the guard going on in the pen.
Mike Schmidt on today’s hitters.
http://www.argusleader.com/article/20110611/SPORTS/106110322/Schmidt-tells-future-hitters-aggressive?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|Sports|s
“Coach” Schmidt speaks with pepper on tongue. Makes for salty reading. Has a knack for raising points and hackles.
I believe he’s talking about Ryan Howard. To say that his statements are a generalization on today’s hitters leads to a great, great many exceptions.
One thing’s for certain: Mike’ll never forget how great he was.
boy ain’t that the truth. AND he is dying to get picked up by ESPN or some other outlet as a commentator/analyst.
“For the most part, the evolution of that part of the game has taken a big hit in the sense that hitters are under-aggressive,” said Schmidt, a member of the 1995 Hall of Fame class. “In the old days, your job as a hitter was to work the pitcher, hopefully to a count where you could be aggressive and guess pretty well that a fastball was coming. You wanted to work yourself into a fastball count and then you wanted to get after it.>>>>
I don’t get it. Isn’t he contradicting himself? On one had he is saying to work the count more, which seems to plead for patience to wait for your pitch. But then he says they lack aggression. So ok, I can see the aggressively patient angle, I guess. If he is talking Howard, I would think the criticism is he is too aggressive, doesn’t take enough walks and swings at too many balls, that is not under-aggression. Howard gets in trouble though in that he seems to take the first pitch almost all the time and the pitcher seems to know it, so he is 0-1 typically and in defensive mode. I would like to see him more aggressive early in the count.
Yes, there is contradiction in there. I’m sure if he were available to explain, he’d confuse you more. He’s always been Prince Hamlet, in or out of spikes. To talk or not to talk, that is not the question.
Fangraphs decided to emmulate the ESPN build a franchise round 1 draft. The results, if you look perceptively enough, are actually quite a bit different, although obviously, a number of the names are the same. What stood out to me was that pitching went much lower here, as selectors grabbed everyday players until Kershaw went at 11. Carl Crawford and matt Kemp made this list, whereas they didn’t make the ESPN list. Doc was taken at 22, ahead of Lincecum who was like 28. Hamels didn’t get picked.\
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fangraphs-franchise-player-draft/
Ridiculous on Hamels. forget lefties, he is arguably the best pitcher in the entire league over the last 12 months, including Lincecum, Halladay, JJ. At 27 he still has upside and could have 8 superb years yet. I certianly would take him over Kershaw if starting a team today.
You have ro remember Kershaw is only 23. That’s real easy to lose sight of when you remember he started against us in Game 1 of the 08 LCS, but he was 20 at the time. Because of the age factor, it’s a more feasible opinion.
Without lookin’ at stats, Kershaw seems wilder. Does he have a grip yet on his curve ball and strike zone?
he’s more praised for his stuff than results. He’s definitely not as mature a pitcher as Cole in those areas.. Not a bad assumption that he’ll get there though. Seems to take his craft seriously from comments.
More regarding Kershaw…this is what you call really subjective because the game’s history is filled with 23 year olds that don’t live up to expectations, but when Doc Halladay was 23, that was the year he had an ERA of 10.64. His WHIP, in a not so small sampling of 67 innings was 2.02. Kershaw already has 2 pretty good seasons in his hip pocket, let alone what he does in his age 23 year.
Agree he’s pretty young. Question his adaptability to the mental aspect of game. Maybe because he reminds me of Howdy Doody. My simple take: looks like a good one (Kaat), not a great one (Koufax). Bigger baseball minds than I bet on his ascendancy though.
It is quite rare for a young pitcher to progress a bit each year in excellence from his youth, so that where he is very good at 23, very very good at 24, great at 25, quite great at 26, superstar at 27, etc. Let alone remain injury free through those years. Much more common is what Hamels experienced as WS MVP at 24, growing pains for several years, and now blossoming into a 4-pitch animal. Kershaw will need to add a pitch and refine other pitches, which is never a given, to make that next step. While it is fun to imagine what he will be “if” he does, it is far from a given. It would be quite exceptional for him to have 4 very good pitches by the time he is 27 – ala Hamels. Another thing that is overlooked in Hamels is his durability. He has avoided the dreaded arm surgery and that is a big part of the package in this day. It is possible, although improbable Kershaw’s arm could be dead in 4 years. Not likely, but more likely than HAmels since Hamels has a longer track record. If there was an inherent flaw in Hamels delivery that leads to breakdown it would have manifested itself by now.
probbly just my imagination but seems like Lee is getting killed by every walk he gives now. Even though his ratio is still great I would be curious to see what percentage of walks either led to more runs by extending innings or scored compared to other starters.
Howard’s defense has improved to at least average if not above average. He is really in a funk at the plate though.
I’d say, with the exception of throwing, Howard’s defense is average to above average. He’s pretty good with the glove. But the throwing is HORRIBLE.
You guys are being generous. He’s improved a bit, but he still has limited range, has trouble with some one hop throws, has slow reflexes on the field, and seems to go into a mental funk defensively from time to time during the season.
all things that are pretty impossible to actually measure….”slow reflexes on the field” what exactly does it mean to go into a mental funk defensively?
Eliminate your criticims and I think he would be a great defender, which nobody is claiming. It used to be many here considered him a liability. I don’t think most do at this point. It isn’t generous to call him average – he is that.
Some improvement shown this season, but he’s no Tommy Hutton, Rico Brogna or Travis Lee. 60s backup Johnny Herrnstein and cup-of-coffee Costen Shockley would give him a run for his money around the bag. Like Pete said, Ryan’s throws are
still captivating adventures.
I don’t know what to make of this year. While the main competition appears to be the giants ad braves, thier offense is more anemic even than the phils. An argument can be made for the brew crew but 1-4 not a single starter would be favored over the PHils. I guess we just and die with the pitching,
The Giants are still winning a lot, and many of their wins are dramatic walk-off’s which says a lot about their hitters coming through in the clutch. They still have the pitching, and I think they’re still the team to beat. I also think that St. Louis could be a threat. LaRussa has done a great job juggling his players this year. Cincy and Milwaukee could also be a challenge, but the Cards have more post season experience, a great manager and a true super star in Pujols. Votto and Braun are still not on his level.
Putting the horse before the Cards in Oct., in 64 lifetime games against Phils, Pujols has been closer to ordinary than stupendous, whatever the reasons may be.
.270 BA .350 OBP .480 SLG .829 OPS 12 HR 42 RBI (in 286 PA, 248 AB)
His favorite pitching staffs are Pirates (.372 BA) and Reds (.353 BA).
unfortunately for the Phils, pitchers don’t face pitchers, so comparing pitching matchups doesn’t matter too much. So any of the teams you mention I would consider even odds to beat the phils in a series. PHils are 26-3 when scoring more than 3 runs and 13-23 when scoring 3 or less. So even with our vaunted staff we have lost alot of 3-2, 3-1, 2-1 games against both good AND mediocre pitchers.
Who’s comparing pitching match-ups? I was writing from “superstar”-at-plate perspective and how that might affect Phils in long run, based on ”jumbo” PUJOLS’ performance history against the team, not current staff. Pirates, Reds mention was for sharp performance contrast - and sheer interest value.
The scoring/result stats with 3 as fulcrum point that you provided are interesting.
“slow reflexes” … naked eye is your ruler. I think Howard does show slow reflexes at times on both batted and thrown-across-diamond balls. A subjective judgement.
“mental funk” … concentration lapse; chillin’, instead of on-toes … most fielders are susceptible to occasional slumpage in this regard. (Remember when you reached for the Monarch Butterfly?) Another subjective judgement.
hard to see how RBi is an overrated stat after watching a game like today. Ask Ben Francisco and Rual Ibanez how easy it is. Twice we had bases loaded and one out and no runs brought in. Without Howard’s RBI’s we lose.
I agree-never understood the logic of those that have made that claim
The logic seems to be that since you are mostly batting someone in, that you are dependent on others to achieve the statistic. So the more opps you have to drive in runs, the more runs you will drive in. So it is somehow less dependent on individual skill and more on circumstances.
I guess they think that if you put in Ruiz in the 4 hole and Howard in the 8 hole for a year they would basically finish with the same RBIs because they have similar Batting averages and Ruiz would get many more opportunities to drive in runs and Howard much less. I would love to try if for a year and just see how foolish that logic is proved to be.
wow this is sweet. Mavs get to raise the trophy on Miami’s court
The golden opportunity to separate off a 16 game weak stretch came and went. 9-7, on ths surface has to be condisered a disappointment. Positives and negatibes, as you’d expect in a stretch abound. The bottom line was an obvious goal of stretching the lead was indeed effected, the goal of showing you can play well against playoff level competition resumes with games against the Cards and Red Sox coming soon. This stretch was about racking up wins, and we let NL competition better positioning for potential playoff matchups to secure home field advantage. If you think this doesn’t matter, take a look at RyHo and Cliff’s home road splits this year, and it’s at least a pause from secure thinking. The Marlins made the stretch a success with a terrible period, the Braves did a good job of making the Phils inability to push 2-3 more winsa little expensive.
The good news is that while you can point to continued offensive inadequacies, like Polanco’s .357 OBP setting the club pace at 25th best in The League, Chase has now fully finished the length spring training with 81 PA. His work the last 2 games in particular are no coincidence. Whether he can still be an offensive juggernaut remains to be seen, but he’ll certainly be more than just an automatic improvement over the second base combination that was. Or wasn’t, is probably more appropriate. This, coupled with RyHo’s historic second half levels of performance, and anticipation of some degree of similarity offer at least contained optimism for the offense doing it’s share.
I’m just speculating on Ryan Howard here. Kind of a guessig game as to when he gets hot (maybe started Sunday), amidst the big picture someday you’ll expect career averages to factor in, and it will be a year too late.
But one of the areas RyHo has a real difference in splits this year is day versus night. He’s played 2.5 times as many night games, but we’re talking 75 ABs so far in the daylight, so that’s a fair stst base from which to at least wonder.
Day OPS is .934, night .757. Slug is .534 to .448, BA is .329 against .213. Better figures are all in the daytime. He’s struck out 63 times in 174 official at bats at night.
So with 2 day games in the next 4, that might seem good news. But for a guy who’s a guess hitter, and darkness is harder to guess in, one can’t help but wonder if it’s not time to check the yellow pages under opthamologists.
Good time to boo Cole Hamels again.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20110614_Cole___Heidi_Hamels_give__200k_to_Philly_schools.html
Las Vegas most overrated MLB team
With a national fan base and high payroll, the Cubs are always a popular bet in Las Vegas. They’ve also helped the casino’s make big money over the past five years. The Chicago Cubs are baseball’s most OVERRATED franchise since 2o06, according to the Wall Street Journal. The Cubs had won 34 fewer games since 2006 than they were expected to, the biggest deficit in the big leagues, through Sunday. The Marlins and Twins are the most underrated team.
Baseball’s most under- and overrated teams, based on whether they exceeded or fell short of their projected win totals since 2006 in sportsbooks.*
MOST OVERRATED
MOST UNDERRATED
TEAM
DIFF.
TEAM
DIFF.
1. Cubs
-34
T-1. Marlins
+29
2. Pirates
-29
T-1. Twins
+29
3. Indians
-27
3. Rockies
+24
4. Nationals
-26
4. Phillies
+18
5. Orioles
-21
5. Rays
+17