The Phils played like a team ready to go win the World Series in their first 2 games against the Giants, but stalled when Jonathan Sanchez put together a soild outing and Cole Hamels hit his first road bump in awhile. The result is that the Phils are 1 game up in the Wild Card, and hopefully won’t look back.
2010: 68-52
2009: 70-50
2008: 64-56
2007: 64-56
What I want to look at today is the remaining schedule for the teams competing with the Phils for a playoff spot. Here are the current playoff odds from Baseball Prospectus…
1. Padres, 95.6%
2. Braves, 89.9%
3. Reds, 81.7%
4. Phillies, 52.7%
5. Cardinals, 46.7%
6. Giants, 26.3%
7. Rockies, 4.0%
I included the Rockies because even though they are 6 games behind us, I still think they are fully capable of going on a big run as they did in 2009 and 2007. I’m not going to include the Padres here, because (and this might be the most shocking thing in baseball this year), they are in a pretty comfortable spot and would really have to dive to lose their place.
I’m going to do this breakdown a little differently than most. Instead of just “games left against teams over .500″, I’m going to look at the records of teams since July 1st and break them down into 3 simple categories: bad, OK, good. Here’s how it comes out…
Good: SF, PHI, SD, CIN, ATL, FLA, STL
OK: HOU, MIL, COL
Bad: LAD, WAS, ARI, NYM, CHC, PIT
Now let’s look at the teams…
Braves
Games left: 41
Home/Road: 20/21
Good/OK/Bad: 19 /3 / 19
Comment: 9 of the 19 games against “good” teams are against the barely qualified Marlins. 6 are against us.
Reds
Games left: 41
Home/Road: 19/22
Good/OK/Bad: 9 / 19 / 13
Comment: As you can tell from the “OK” number, they play the Astros and Brewers A LOT before the season is out.
Phillies
Games left: 42
Home/Road: 20/22
Good/OK/Bad: 18 / 8 / 16
Comment: Slightly easier than the Braves, but only if you agree the Marlins should be in a different category than the Astros.
Cardinals
Games left: 44
Home/Road: 20/24
Good/OK/Bad: 15 / 10 / 19
Comment: No lowel-level “good” teams for that Cards with series left again SF (3), ATL (4), SD (4) and CIN (3).
Giants
Games left: 40
Home/Road: 21/19
Good/OK/Bad: 13 / 9 / 18
Comment: Phils have a chance to pad a lead with the Giants playing the Cards and Reds in their next 6. However, after that their schedule includes 9 against the D-Backs.
Rockies
Games left: 42
Home/Road: 23/19
Good/OK/Bad: 24 / 0 / 18
Comment: The toughest remaining schedule makes it unlikely they make a run.
So here is how I would rank them in terms of Easiest Road to the Playoffs
1. Reds
2. Giants
3. Phillies
4. Braves
5. Cardinals
6. Rockies
The Reds seem to control their own destiny right now, up 3.5 games with an easier road in. It looks like the Phillies and Giants might battle it out until the end, but maybe the Phils can get a big lead over the next week and break their spirit a little bit. The Rockies would need a miracle to make another late season run, and the Braves look to be in pretty good shape, while the Cardinals are moving quickly towards a very disappointing year.
Series Preview: Nats at Phillies
I want to talk about Stephen Strasburg for a moment.
I love watching good pitchers pitch, I would much rather see a 2-1 game than a 15-14 game. Most of my favorite non-Phillies are pitchers. So when a kid like Strasburg comes up with as much hype as he did it’s exciting for me, even though he’s in our division. It’s even more exciting when he actually lives up to the hype.
So far in 11 starts, Strasburg is 5-3 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. But there are a couple stats that show he could end up as undoubtedly the best pitcher in baseball pretty darn soon. First is his K/9 number. Strasburg has struck out 86 hitters in 63.2 IP for a K/9 rate of 12.2. The 2nd best starter in baseball sits at 10.5, Brandon Morrow (we REALLY couldn’t have gotten him in the Cliff Lee deal? Really?). Anyway, back to Stras. Only 3 starters in the HISTORY of baseball had a season with a K/9 rate over 12. Randy Johnson (an insane 6 times), Pedro Martinez (once) and Kerry Wood (once). Obviously Strasburg would have to sustain that rate over a full season, but he’s shown he has the potential. Also, when you look at those pitchers, you’ve got one of the top-5 lefties ever and top-5 righties ever, and then someone whose arm fell off. I think those are probably the 2 options Stras is looking at.
Here are some more stats. Strasburg’s fastball this season has averaged 97.3 mph. That is a full 1 mph better than any other starter in baseball (Ubaldo Jimenez, 96.2). His change-up is 89.7 mph, faster than Johan Santana’s fastball this year. Oh, and did I mention that his best pitch might be his curve? He already has the best swing-and-miss % in baseball (27.6%), and he’s just getting started. It will be very interesting to watch this kid mature, and hopefully the Phillies can deliver some of the growing pains he will certainly go through.
Probables
Friday (7:10): Halladay vs. RHP Jason Marquis (0-5, 14.33 ERA)
Saturday (7:10): Kendrick vs. RHP Stephen Strasburg (5-3, 2.97 ERA)
Sunday (1:35): Oswalt vs. LHP Scott Olsen (3-5, 5.14)
3 Questions for the Series
- Will our strikeout heavy line-up get carved up by Strasburg? Or can we rattle him?
- Will Rollins hot streak continue?
- Can Utley settle in and find a groove?
Series Prediction
It’s a shame that Strasburg won’t be facing Halladay. That would have been great. As it is, you’ve gotta say that the Phils should easily take 2 of 3 here, with a sweep a possibility if Kendrick throws one of his “good” starts.
I am out of town starting tonight through next week, so I won’t be able to watch the games live. But I’ll rely on you guys to tell me what’s going on in the comments and the stupid things McCarthy and Wheeler are saying that would make me want to rip my ears off.
On the other hand, it may be a good thing that Kendrick is going up against Strasburg. That’s almost an expected loss anyway and while a pitching duel between the current and future best would be great, not now. Maybe later when they’re not chasing down wins.
Can’t believe you embarrassed Jason Marquis by actually putting his record and ERA up. Poor guy. Oh, by the way, batters have a 1.2 OPS against him.
Wonder if Roy O remembers when the rumors had him going to St. Louis, regarding the about to make this a disappointing year.
Story of the year, always a couple close nominees, and Toronto is nice, but the Rangers aren’t too terribly far behind the Pads. Some off field stuff, Washington and bankrupty embellishes their tale a little, but we’ve had the usual good stories to follow besides all 3 of those.
The thing I’m most interested in about the Strassburg game is which Phillie hitters adjust to him best. I don’t expect us to kill him by any means, but I figure it’s not like they are facing the junk pitcher type that we struggle against. I don’t expect this, but with all the games in a row, I’d almost like to see Charlie give Vic the night off, and see DB against him. Pretty compelling matchup I wonder if Raul might at least get some good awing in on his fastball.
I’d expect McCarthy to be at his orgasmic best on the Strassburg game.
Probably be considered a nice surprise if we gain any ground on the Braves this weekend.
Tyson Gillies, one of three prospects acquired from the Phillies in the Cliff Lee trade last offseason, was arrested in Florida and charged with cocaine possession, according to the Pinellas County Sheriff Department. Bond was posted and he was released. More to come.
Phils statement said they were aware of charge, but won’t comment on it because it’s an open case.
Pretty sad news for a young guy who was handicapped by a hearing problem, and maybe hasn’t lived up to anticipation this year, but was possessive of some great base stealing numbers, and that was intruiging.
Makes you wonder about history of use, re:Seattle system, and current teammates.
Hardly seems to fit the image of players on the Big Club. Public image seems really character driven, and you never know about public image against private life reality, but even off this alone, it’s pretty disappointing.
Not to convict off a brand new news item, but i your picked up on a drug possession charge, it would seem likely that fire follows the smoke.
Maybe the usage has been the cause for his poor season?
Well, I’m guessing, but I’ll say unlikely. Injury probably.
I don’t know much about this stuff, but I’m inclined to think that a lot of athletes have performed while using coke, and I don’t know that it was noticable.
I have to go back in time to think of examples, but 2 that died, Len Bias and Don Rogers didn’t seem bothered performance wise until thay died, and I really hate to drop names without perfect recollection, but it seems like Dave Parker and Keith Hernandez used but it didn’t effect them blatantly.
I suspect Gooden might have been more affected by the lack of rest from all the partying, and I can’t equate Darryl Strawberry’s situation either since he seemed to have multiple problems.
Doc Ellis claimed to have pitched a no hitter on coke.
It really hurts that instead of Brandon Morrow, we got 3 stiffs for Cliff Lee.
Rant over.
based on what I’ve read about him, Gillies is about the last prospect I would have guessed get arrested for coke possession. Very disappointing.
KB-
Meant to address this in the other post, but I’ve been all over the place the last couple days.
We love how much you post and your content.
We started this blog in part because we needed an outlet to express our opinions and the goal was to create an outlet for others as well that couldn’t get intelligent discussion on larger boards. Glad we can provide it for you, and very happy to have you aboard (and everything else).
The freaking Braves scored 3 runs off Marmol in the 9th to beat the Cubs 5-3. Unbelievable.
Looks like this series sets up very well for us to take 2 of 3. If we lose the Kendrick-Strasburg matchup I’m ok with that, but even there, if we can hang around until they take him out, which usually happens by the 7th, we could take that one too by getting to the bullpen. This is what’s so great about having 3 top-level pitchers; in most series, you’ve got 2 of them going. Every series I’m just looking for us to take 2 of 3, and if we can do that, we should definitely find our way to the postseason.
The freaking Braves scored 3 runs off Marmol in the 9th to beat the Cubs 5-3. Unbelievable.>>
That is just one amazing run they are on. That’s what it takes to be in the post season, the unexpecteds stepping up. This time, it’s Ankiel.
Pete, Very nice, and very appreciated words.
Another thing I’m wondering about the Gillies deal is being as he’s a foreigner
(Canadian), I wonder if he’s here on a work permit that might be revoked because of the drug charge.
I think this is why they call them the Amazin Mets. I find this truly incredible. And its not like their record is that terrible.
#Mets could be first team to go thru season & not win a series vs team in own league since 1909 Senators!
Stark
Today’s lineups
Nationals
Morgan
Desmond
Dunn
Zimmerman
Bernadina
Morse
Rodriguez
Kennedy
Marquis
Phillies
Rollins
Polanco
Utley
Werth
Ibanez
Victorino
Sweeney
Ruiz
Halladay
#Mets could be first team to go thru season & not win a series vs team in own league since 1909 Senators! >>
Something’s wrong with that. At least 1 thing. The Mets shut us out 3 straight and swept us earlier this year for one thing.
Something’s wrong with that. At least 1 thing. The Mets shut us out 3 straight and swept us earlier this year for one thing.>>
They haven’t won a series on the road.
ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, okay
still pretty amazin
Being as words cannot possibly describe the firsi inning for Doc, well, the result anyway, the numbers tonight, sidebar as it is seem to say that if he goes 9 and shuts the Nats out, his ERA drops to 2.06, tied with Wainright. Chances of a 9 inning effort would seem slim, but maybe he can get closer.
he’s like the ultimate competitor.
GBO: LHP Chad James (3-9, 5.32)
That’s who RyHo is facing tonight in lakewood. Hitting 3rd.
7:30: Howard walks in the first…inning over when Singleton gets robbed of a hit by the GBO shortstop
http://blog.blueclaws.com/2010/live-blog-ryan-howard-night/
that idiot Marmol walked the bases loaded before Ankiel hit the triple. Unreal.
Wonder what Strasburg thought of Doc in the first.
Rick Wise. Anyone over 55 doesn’t know that should be forced to buy met season tickets.
so after 3, Doc’s ERA is 2.20. Dropped .04 thus far. So if he went 9, by that prorated, he’d be at 2.11, AW at 2.06.
Nice competition.
seems like he may only go 6.2/7 tonight (heat factor?) but i guess 0ER would help the cause greatly
Well, he has thrown fewer pitches than the 1st, though the 3rd wasn’t a bargain.
But we have to get control of the game before pulling him any time early would seem doable.
Read somewhere today about a possible 9/1 callup. career minore leaguer Rich Thompson who has 31 steals on 34 attempts somewhere in the system. Good pinch running depth, stolen base guy for the stretch. Made sense.
Marquis, on the other hand hasn’t gone past 5 in this dismal season. So its a mortal certainty that we see their bullpen by the 7th even if he keeps doing a good job.
pic of RyHo’s number retired.
Nice experience for him, and good opportunity for Singleton to rub shoulders with him.
http://twitpic.com/2glmhp
Phillies rookie outfielder Domonic Brown faced Strasburg in Double-A earlier this season.
Brown was hitless in that game.
“He’s got dominating, very electric stuff,” Brown said. “He throws everything hard. It’s tough to hit off him. If you make a mistake at this level, anyone can make you pay. We have to stay disciplined at the plate.”
That shoul about do it for marquis. I would think we’ll nail him through 1 more time through the lineup. Gutsy effort so far, but I’m on board with matter of time thinking tonight.
Like father like son.
5th inning, lakewood is hitless.
On June 30, when Doc blew the 3-0 lead at Cincy, despite giving up 13 hits and 4 runs, he wrapped the game with an ERA of 2.42, and W-L at 9-7.
So he’s 6-1 since, tonight possibly pending, and through the 5th inning now, his ERA is back down to 2.18.
Phillies making below average pitchers look like aces again.
This is why I don’t believe the hype when people say this lineup is formidable, etc.
Well, Tony’s concern about the offense could be back on watch pretty soon.
It’d be something if we crush Strasburg after rejuvinating Marquis to this point.
Tony,
I had not seen your post before I wrote mine after it. How funny.
Bad night for me to counter your concerns.
I guess its pretty fair to say that when RyHo gets back, lets see how the offense is a few days after we finally have the Opening Day lineup back.
I know they were way off in May and all, but we are missing a big bat right now.
All good, Ken.
What they’ve been doing to Hamels, ie, almost nothing, can happen to the other aces as well. 3 runs is not to ask is it? It’s the friggin’ Nats and they know coming in they have to win to keep pace with the Coxes.
3 runs is not to ask is it?>>
The Braves had 2 runs today.
They finished with 3 in the 9th to total 5.
Besides, they’re human. You know they are looking ahead to Strasburg, and can you blame them for maybe being overconfident tonight?
And you have to give Marquis some credit.
You just know the Nats are saying keep it close until we can get to Lidge.
I have to at least wonder what Doc had left. That DP was well timed. He did a helluva job tonight. That first inning grew larger as the night went on.
In the 6th, Toronto 14, Red Sox, 0. lester, 2IP, 9 earned. Not a good night for a sellout at Fenway.
Well, if we get through the 6,7 and 8 slots, we still have to face Morgan in the 9th. That speed concerns me.
I keep expecting Madson to have an off night. He’s been so good lately, only possible failed outing was Bob Davidson night.
And I still keep expecting us to score. And this inning is no different.
Lidge could conceivably face Ryan Zimmerman in a dangerous situation in the 9th.
PH, Morgan, Desmond
Dunn and Zimmerman.
Frankly, this is scary. Not a good game to lose.
Better lately is a bunch of bull. It’s about tonight.
exorcising demons? no?
I think we have a shot on this matchup
so muh for that thought. And no it gets real interesting.
well, no such thing as a bad win.
useless Cubs!
brad lidge sure has been looking good his last 8 appearances
brad lidge sure has been looking good his last 8 appearances>>
I’m still digesting the end of the game. Those 9th inning matchups didn’t inspire much confidence in me. The Phils I guess feel differently. He hung that slider to Desmond, but he made a helluva last pitch to Dunn. I wish I felt more confident in Lidge per se, but at least given the right matchups, I feel good about him if those matchups seem right. Far, far more importantly, he is feeling good about himself. I just can’t bring myself to agree that he’s looked good the last 8 appearances. I’ll more than agree he’s gotten phoenomenal results. I guess if it’s working, what the hay.
Lidge is gettin’ it done lately, but, overall, he’s a far cry from Dick Selma 1970. He’s fit to get smoked in the crunch by a good line-up, especially away from CBP. Was surprised he hung on tonight by a couple of feet.
How ’bout Chase’s tag after a crappy throw from Ibanez. Does he get after it or what. Shades of Pete Rose.
Bottom of 6th: Now there was a real Mench.
Plan October vacations. This isn’t Phils’ year. Offense is anemic, often threatening team purpose. Pitching, high profile talent, but both a mite lucky and unpredictable. Chief Wahoo raises high his tomahawk.
But the Big Paycheck is nearing delivery after a month of processing.
We know the gross. What’s the net?
jjg, you try to hard to be clever and fail…
Correction to post 56: top of 6th. Decent battling AB by the former Blue Hen, but what was he doin’ on K pitch? Wasn’t close to strike zone. Must have commited to swing in Halladay wind-up. Judging on season’s evidence, Roy’s pitches go from fat to thin in a hurry.
Correction to post 58: post 54.
Thanks, Tony. Keep rootin’.
Looks like Ryan Howard is back at the Bank Sunday afternoon. It’s only 2 games that the Phils offense has not produced, but off tonight’s probable low scoring effort, its a short trip to Philly and will give the Phils the chance to play their Opening Day lineup for the first time since May. Considering the Nats have roughed up Roy O twice this year, it might be a helpful bat. They tell me oxygen might be helpful to an atmosphere, too. Left Scott Olsen goes for Washington. His familiarity with north of .500 matches the Pirates, and it’s another in the never ending series of do the Phils make stars out of people just taking up roster space. Howard’s return will conclude an incredible period in which not one thought has been put out there to my awareness about how the Phils have won without him, short time frame though it’s been,
and they shouldn’t have paid him so much. That was nice to avoid.
Team “slumps” can be a funny thing. One guy stops hitting, and it can derail an entire lineup quickly. The 2 biggest constants in our lineup this year have been RyHo and Plac. Polanco had 4 straight hits in Tuesday’s win over the Giants, and is now 0-12 since. Add to that the inevitability of cooling off periods for Ibanez, Chooch and Werth, who even if its been largely in non clutch situations, and the 2 game lull isn’t terribly shocking.
The Braves move onto Colorado from Chicago. They will miss Jimenez. Each of the Phils next 6 games is winnable, if only because they are against less than good baseball teams. Not letting the Braves gain ground, enabling potential home field position, and spacing from wild card competition all loom important, but being in the habit of execution as the 9/1 stretch approaches is not a lost factor. On the whole, the Phils are there. It’s a lot better than having to get there.
Zimmerman over Wright.
Strasburg over Kendrick.
’63 Klippstein & Baldschun over ’10 Madson & Lidge.
“Constant” Plac: 39 ribbies at the top of a supposedly-loaded lineup; .281 when playing from behind. Good season, but, dare I say, he’s a tad overrated now.
Matt Gelb has provided more details about Gillies’ arrest:
Cecilia Barreda, the public information officer for the Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office, said the original incident occurred June 11 in Clearwater.
A patrol officer witnessed Gillies standing on the shoulder of Route 19 near Enterprise Blvd. in Clearwater at 3:24 a.m. Gillies was waving a white shirt at passing motorists. The patrol officer stopped to speak with Gillies and noticed he was intoxicated.
Gillies told the officer he was waving the shirt so his friends could see him. He told the officer he was trying to find a way back to his hotel down the street after spending several hours at Freaki Tiki, a nearby bar.
The officer asked Gillies if he had enough money for a taxi to take him back to the hotel. He did not, so the officer offered a courtesy ride for Gillies.
After the officer dropped Gillies off at the La Quinta, where he was also staying in June, he noticed a bag of white powder on the back-seat floor of the police cruiser. The officer stopped Gillies, took down his information and told him the bag would be sent to a lab for testing and he could be charged in the future.
The lab results came back positive Thursday and Gillies was taken into custody early Friday morning.
I have to strongly disagree with your rating of teams. The LAD are much better than the lowly Astros; can’t believe why you would ignore their excellent starting pitchers.
dino-
if you read the article, it had nothing to do with me “rating” the teams. and everything to do with the teams record since July 1st.
excellent Dodgers: 19-26
lowly Astros: 21-20
RyHo was activated.
Gload to the DL.
Bring it on. The Big Man is BACK!
i don’t think that is an accurate standard, and it’s a clear example of how stats can be worthless and lead to worthless conclusions. I ‘d much rather play the Astros than the Dodgers, and I’m sure you would too. We’ll be very lucky to win 2/3 in LA.
happy to have Howard back in the lineup. are there any stats on how many games/rbi’s/etc that we have missed so far this year due to injuries? that might not be clear but what i mean is how many days players have been out this year like how people were posting about the mets of 2009?
When Domonic was recalled to replace Shane, it wasn’t expected he’d hang around a long time. With Gload being DL’d today, DB has now watched a number of guys lose their roster spots and continues to lead the charmed life.
So I wondered how close he would be to losing rookie of the year possibilities for next season.
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a major league club or clubs during the period of a 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service).
So the answer to whether Domonic Brown will be a rookie next year is….
By the 130 at bat qualifier…
Well, he’s either at 42 (official at bats, or 46 by plate appearance definition. So he’d need about 85 more. He’d need to start about 15 games the rest of the way, and substitute regularly. That’s pretty unlikely.
Having been recalled July 28, he’ll fall far short of time on the roster (45 days) during the 25 eligible time frame.
So the chances of his being a rookie in ’11 are outstanding. Not to be confused with definite, but quite good.
Ya know, Dino, even if you just look ahead the rest of the year, I look at the Dodgers and Astros like this.
The Astros now have an injection of youth, and have at least recovered from a dreadful start, and 3rd place probably means something to a club like that. It’s a fair and reasonable foundation to stay focussed and build for something.
The Dodgers excellent starting pitching is realistically limited to Kershaw, Lilly and Billingsley. Will Lilly even finish the season there? I could see them flipping him. Excellent is a stretch to apply as a label to Padilla or Kuroda, which isn’t to say they aren’t good. But what’s behind them is such a mess. The bullpen could regain its quality form, but it’s not there at present.
The club as a whole probably can’t wait for the season to end. The Manager is a clear favorite to miss the playoffs for the first time in 15 years, and seems to be wrapping up his Dodger career.
I don’t think anyone is scared of playing either club. Granted, the Dodgers can be qualified as more likely to put it together for a stretch, but that’s as far as I’d go.
really dino? lucky to win 2 out of 3? no furcal and manny. you gotta remind yourself this is august 2010. this is not the same team that you saw in the nlcs last year. and if stats are worthless, why do so many people use them-from tv announcers, scouts, managers/coachers, and others? in the article’s case, it refers to how the teams have done lately which gives a better indication of how good they will be down the stretch, compared to stats from april. stats will not lead to correct conclusions 100% of the time, but they will lead us to more correct conclusions, compared to wrong conclusions.
How a team played in July is not relevant. Most teams made significant additions and subtractions since then; it does not account for current injuries, streaks, etc. Ramirez may be back next week-he’s rehabbing now. The Dodgers have added several players that have contributed, and they have one of the best, if not the best, starting rotations in baseball which includes 2 very nasty lefties.
Rollins 6, Polanco 5, Utley 4, Howard 3, Victorino 8, Ibanez 7, Brown 9, Schneider 2, Kendrick 1
Night’s off for Werth and Chooch.
Wonder if we’d be better off with Chooch behind the plate, and pass on the extra lefty bat.
Nats go this way….
Morgan
Desmond
Dunn
Zimmerman
Bernadina
Kennedy
Rodriguez
Harris
Strasburg
Domonic Brown on with Cataldi and Company on WIP.
They asked him what his goal is as an individual player, amongst about 10 minutes of other questions.
http://610wip.cbslocal.com/2010/08/20/phillies-phenom-domonic-brown-is-a-big-hit-on-morning-show/
TexasIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Cliff Lee
5.2
10
8
8
1
4
4
3.09
rtranslation from post 79, rough, rough day for Cliff Lee. 8 ER, 10 hits 5.2 IP, ERA jumped I believe from 2.5 to 3.09. At Baltimore.
This isn’t the first bad game he’s had recently. I think he’s been roughed up the last 4 starts when Texas needed the win. They only have an 8 game lead, and I wouldn’t rule out them folding big time if they can’t get that well pitched game from him. Still, it was a lousy trade for us; he’s much better than Fat Joe who makes the same we would have paid him
Wonder if we’d be better off with Chooch behind the plate, and pass on the extra lefty bat.>>
Catchers normally get a day game off after a night game with all the tear and wear. This is vice versa because the Nats have a righty today and a lefty tomorrow. This is simply a day off and barely has to do with the offense. A catcher that starts 125-130 games a year is considered durable, compared to 150-155 for the infielders and outfielders.
Being as the Cubs will take a 5-4 lead to the 9th, I will go a little easier on them.
But they suck.
The Braves have scored 3 runs in the 8th and left the bases loaded to trail 5-4. I am not confident in Marmol at all to cut this deficit to 2 games.
yep I agree Philly-he loaded the bases on walks yesterday, had a lot of deep counts, and gave up the triple. The Cubs have no one else ?
I am not confident in Marmol at all to cut this deficit to 2 games.>>
If his slider’s working he’ll be fine. And he’s got lower in the order to work against. Those thing s said, beware of the buckle up light.
Chooch must still be having that thigh problem (stiffness)
By the way, defense begins with pitching. No numbers checked, just assume KK feels most comfortable with Chooch. I figured Charlie saw a chance to rest him because of the strong righty pitcher. Just wondered if maybe they should bypass that and let KK throw to his regular guy.
Anyway, to finish the point, you don’t want to give anything up against SS, so that’s why I wondered if Ruiz maybe shouldn’t catch tonight. But if Ruiz does well with Scneider, no issue at all.
hey KENNY…Chooch is HURT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
nice start Kyle
Chooch is HURT >>
where’d you hear that, or do you have a link?
good trivia question because a lot of times, great attendance follows winning years, but 94 was a strike. Seems the late 70s early 80s run topped out at 2.8 mil. 94 was a strike year, so I’ll say when we won the flag in 93, that was it.
Even being generous, we have to hold them to 5 before SS leaves the game to have a chance.
I bet its over 50-50 against kendrick being on all 3 levels of potential playoff rosters. He’s not useless, but he’s so undependable. I thought he might be okay in relief, just having to go 2-3 innings as a long man maximum, but I wonder.
I’m just assuming that about Chooch since he had to miss a day last week, and he’s caught 6 games in a row.
Hard to believe tickets cost the same at the Bank when KK pitches or if Doc pitches.
Let me rephrase that. I can understand the Phils charging when Doc pitches. But with KK, they should pay the peeps to attend.
How To Destroy Your WHIP in 3 IP
By Kyle Kendrick
Florida had a pretty good game against SS. I mean this kid is really good, and he knows what he’s doing, great control, but we’re gonna have to get a run or 2 off him and extend him. last inning was a joke, like 7 pitches. Second time through comomg up, and my sense is it doesn’t help, but hopefully wrong.
How To Destroy Your WHIP in 3 IP
By Kyle Kendrick>>
geez, something actually made me laugh amidst this nonsense. Thank you!
Stark on Strasburg….
Strasburg threw 5 more changeups in the 2nd. Here are the gun readings: 91-90-90-91-91. Mind-boggling.
Time for 1st-inning Strasburg radar-gun report: 2 pitches at 99 mph, 3 at 98, 2 at 97 and a CHANGEUP to Utley at 92. Yep, I said changeup
Dino-
If you read comment 79, I explained why I believe your assumption is likely wrong. Even Joe Mauer gets a day off every week. That’s why you see younger catchers play another position like Buster Posey. All of these foul tips over a season wears down on them. Technically, he could be “hurt” but it is probably not the reason why he is not playing today.
That looked like the forearm to me, but Gelb is guessing elbow.
Well many people have said that Strasburg needed to change his mechanics soon before he becomes the next Kerry Wood. This is too bad.
all reactions I’m reading say elbow. I figured it it was his elbow, he’d have grabbed and clenched it, but majority opinion is a good indicator for detcting injuries, I guess.
This Ian Desmond looks like a decent player. Nice supporting player to Zimmerman and Dunn in their current lineup.
Glad Charlie ran out of patience. I think. Depends on what JC does.
that’s a big break on an unusual crummy at bat by Polly. What a time for Chase to go deep for the furst time in a long time, or get RyHo up with em loaded. We may have a ball game right here.
This Ian Desmond looks like a decent player.>>
14-17 steals.
28 errors.
This Ian Desmond looks like a decent player.>>
14-17 steals.
28 errors.
on the farm tonight…Carpenters line: 6.2 IP 6H 1R 2BB 7K. Good outing. 3 minutes ago via web
1st round pick Jesse Biddle’s debut in Williamsport: 4IP 3H 1ER 2BB 4K 5 minutes ago via web
Jon Pettibone pitching a very nice game for Lakewood…6IP 2H 0R 0BB 7K 7 minutes ago via web >>
additional Comment: Carpenter has been pretty bad the last few weeks. Nice comeback.
3 hits so far in 7 innings…3rd game in a row that our bats are silent…not good
Any failure to produce offensively will loom larger because of the time of the game. But Slaten did an excellent job squelching Chase and RyHo the previous inning. Can’t say we didn’t have a chance. I’d hope they PH for Schneider to kick off the 8th, and maybe get something started.
Gotta get a sharp inning out of Jose.
I’m positive Raul is off tomorrow. Common sense of course, old, day after night, lefty, etc., but the positivity of it is he just did not look good at the plate tonight. Neither he nor Shane had a chance on their 1 AB post SS. Day off will probably be good for him. Guy was doing great for a while.
Clippard is pretty good, but Braves Magic was i effect against him the other night.
Won’t hurt having a 3rd catcher up here 9/1.
really need a run here. Bottom of the order isn’t so strong tonight. Good time for Plac to regain his stroke.
I expect a good effort from Roy O who hasn’t put it all together yet, but showed definite signs of his career greatness. he got blown out by the Nats on 5/31, and I don’t know the other game they handled him, but I’m just looking at it as a different backdrop this time. But I respect that they gave him trouble twice.
Ninth inning oending, I’m still not concerned about the offensive slowdown. Didn’t expect much tonight, and to this point, their bullpen deserves a lot of credit. Sanchez is good, and Marquis was due. My honest observation, not an apologetic spirit to it.
I expect to see production tomorrow against mediocore lefty Scott Olsen, and feel like it’s a couple games away before concern is justified. Bret Myers is Monday. He may pitch well, but I don’t see him shutting us down. That’s his mode this year, pitch well, but not shut em down.
Oh, brother. Roger Bernadina. Oh, well.
No update on Strasburg, BTW. I’ve seen outlets report a hand, wrist and elbow injury. So that about covers it. 2 minutes ago via TweetDeck
from Gelb
like to at least see Vic and Raul have good at bats here.
Shane’s OBP is <.314. Is he imitating Jeff Francouer?
pity I didnt get to see Strasburg and his magic arm. I’ll be an optimist and say he’s still young and needs to develop strength but arm issues already? can his upper right appendage really handle the stress of throwing near triple digits?
its not every day the Braves lose a game. Phillies are not serious.
I’m on an elsewhere beat this moning. Pretty far away, too focussing on California.
Later today, for the 62nd time, Vin Scully will be announcing if he will be back in the Dodger broadcast booth next year.
If I had a choice, much as I enjoy the suspense of baseball, sometimes I’d pick and choose where successes and failures occur. A Ryan Howard game winning homer against the Pirates seems such a waste of a good at bat, ya know? But the one I’d really and truly place in different annals would have been Jamie Moyer’s 2 hit shutout against the Braves earlier this year. Can you imagine Scully marvelling over that gem? Moyer wasn’t even a pigment of the eventual Ma and Pa Moyer’s imagination when Scully started voicing MLB action with Red Barber. Barber is so far removed from baseball memories that you need to really have a good memory to be aware that he actually called baseball games after the sport was invented, and not before. And yet, Moyer experienced that jour du excellence with a good 90 per cent of the attendees younger than him. It would have made Vin feel good to be bragging on a 47 year old’s masterpiece had he been calling his own at a mere 82 years young.
61 years now for Vinnie. Every year, the census bureau reports fewer and fewer redheads walking around. But old Vinnie has done his share to keep that population in tact. He’s the salvation to remembering the greatness of Sandy Koufax, and making it feel like yesterday. Hell, even the great infield of Garvey-Cey-Russell and Lopes would fit that, and that was 15 years later.
I’ve had my gripes with some aspects of Scully’s work over the years. I much prefer the 2 man conversational style, and always was led to believe that Vin’s insistence on being a 1 man show was a hinderance to an extra rendition of his greatness. Scully and Lasorda would have been all time legendary. At times, I found Vin too wordy (how’s that for the pot calling the kettle its darkest shade of black?), and maybe even sounding a little too contrived at times. But the smoothness, the depth of basbeall knowledge, the ability to perk an appetite with the mere mention of Farmer John Hot Dogs, and an incredible ability to run play by play of 2 games during frequent Dodger September pennant runs all led me quickly to the forgiveness route.
I’m positive Vin announces today that this year will be it for him. Having not listened to him for a lengthy time frame has afforded me the privelege of not hearing him fade as some other of basball’s great voices seemed to in later years. Vin, for all I know, might not have shown much trace of that. But I know deep in my heart that no matter how effective he still is, the Vin Scully of 30 years ago was as good as anyone who ever sat by a microphone.
And for all that time, all those words, all that action, the lasting impression will always be “She is Gone.” But that’s quite enough.
well, this is a complete surprise. lou iniella is leaving the Cubs after today’s game against the Braves. apparently, his mom’s health is rapidly declining. hopefully, he will leave with a W against the Braves.
also, Vin Scully is staying in the booth next year for the Dodgers. anyways, this is totally off topic but it was funny when he called a game last week and Tulowitzki changed his hair-style to a mullet. Scully thought a mullet was a fish, then talked for 5 minutes about how a mullet was a hair-style. that was the first time i listened to him in 3 years so was he going through a senior moment or what? it was so funny to listen to him though.
Vin Scully is staying in the booth next year >>
I’ll call that a pleasant surprise. I’m almost as surprised at that as that Ibanez is playing today. I wasn’t surprised about Lou. Not that I thought he’d leave early, but the mom factor excluded, I assued he was sick of that losing environment.
Olsen may pitch well today, who knows, but on paper, the games in this series have to set a record for bigget picthing matchups on paper in history.
Wilsn Valdez has now hit in 16 double plays this year. That’s the same number as disabled list players the Phils have had.
ets see, Utley, Moyer, Gload, Rollins, Rollins, Howard, Madson, Happ, Blanton, Lidge, Ruiz (?), and with 5 more, it’s not off the top of my head material.
even remembering Plac, Shneider and Vic, I can’t get all 16.
watching the game -missed the 1st inning. Why isn’t Chase playing 2 day ?
chase is simply having a day off just like Ruiz yesterday. this isn’t football, basketball, or hockey where players are expected to play 100% of the regular season. and don’t come up with foolish conclusions and assume chase is hurt again just like you did with Ruiz yesterday
just a day off after playing every day since he started rehab.
Infante now has 2 homers today
hey Barner-I just said that since Ruiz may be having trouble with the tightness in his thigh muscle. Those things don’t disappear over night especially with a catcher. Managers often give players a day off when they have a chronic ailment.
Those GIDPs are maddening, but Valdez also has a big 2-run single. A dividend of having played so much while Utley and Polanco were out, I’d guess. Hope we receive that benefit from every bench player who got more playing time due to all of our injuries (as mentioned above).
It’s unfortunate that he was forced into playing his bench guys, but they have shown that they can contribute, and Charlie seems to be trusting and using them more (like giving Utley the day off today).
It also goes a ways toward answering the question of how we have been winning with Player X out of the lineup. How did we win without Howard? Well, Gload was really hitting the ball prior to his groin injury, which covers the first 9 games of Howard’s absence, and Sweeney has had a couple key hits in some of the other games.
The same answer goes for everyone else who has been out along the way. Others have filled in and stepped up enough to keep the wins coming at a good clip. (Taking the fact that our starting pitching has done a very good job of keeping us in games and allowing these guys the opportunities to come through as a given)
BTW, we will not be gaining any ground on the Braves today. A 4-run top of the 7th and a 5-run top of the 8th has given them a 14-3 lead over the Cubs and has taken care of that (and I’m sure has cemented for Lou that he has made the right decision).
The bench has been a pleasant surprise this season; much better than last year. It’s definitely a positive result of all of the injuries we’ve ebdured
Wonder if we can 2 of 3 from the Rox out of this. Better chance than against the sorry Cubs.
Monday: Braves RH Tim Hudson (14-5, 2.15 ERA) vs. RH Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.36)
Tuesday: Braves RH Derek Lowe (11-11, 4.32) vs. LH Jorge De La Rosa (4-4, 4.74)
Wednesday: RH Jair Jurrjens (5-4, 3.91) vs. RH Esmil Rogers (2-2, 4.53)
Managers often give players a day off when they have a chronic ailment.>>
oh really? well managers also give players a day off simply just for rest. is anyone really 100% healthy at this time of the year? i don’t think so
speaking of; Madson’s due for a little siesta. usage over these last 2 weeks seems to be pretty high. need to manage him well, we’ll need him badly down the stretch.
I know that the economics of the various major sports are complex, confusing, convoluted, etc…to one degree or another, but baseball has got to be the worst of the bunch.
The Pirates were required to submit documents to MLB, someone with access to those documents leaked them to the AP, and the club’s earnings for 2007 and 2008 have been made public.
Pirates’ bounty
Highlights of the Pirates’ 2007-08 financial statements, as obtained by The Associated Press:
2008 2007
Gate receipts
$32,129,368
$34,422,355
Revenue sharing
$39,046,312
$30,302,652
Total club-gen. income
$76,017,669
$74,990,600
MLB
revenue
$69,975,768
$63,645,726
Total income
$145,993,437
$138,636,326
Player
salaries
$51,040,233
$50,871,186
Total expend.
$124,203,035
$122,438,772
Profit (after taxes)
$14,408,249
$15,008,032
Now, the fact that the they turned a profit of $15 mil in 2007 and $14.4 mil in 2008 has the Pirates trying to defend themselves against the charge that they are not trying to win, and MLB trying to defend them against the charge of abusing the revenue sharing system.
We now get glimpses into the hidden world of baseball’s finances on a semi-regular basis, and it never looks very good. I wonder how much longer this mess will go on. Knowing some of these things must make it awful difficult to remain a Pirates fan (or a Marlins fan, etc…), which in turn does damage to the game as a whole.
“even remembering Plac, Shneider and Vic, I can’t get all 16.”
Didn’t Castro go down for a little while too? Maybe right after Jimmy came back the first time?
Lancaster native Bruce Sutter has been added as a minor league consultant, tasked with assisting in the evaluation of the pitching staffs in Lehigh Valley and in Reading for the rest of the season.
Wonder how that came about? Why now? What kind of help do the Phils think they can get from him in just a few weeks that will make a tangible difference? Will it lead to something, a more permanent role in the organization perhaps, in the future?
Sutter is from Mt. Joy. For more Lancaster County flavor, could add Gene Garber (Elizabethtown), Tom Herr (Hempfield) and Don Wert (Strasburg) to the staff.
Polanco is out of the lineup tonight, as his on again/off again battle with elbow soreness continues. I just hope it is more off than on the rest of the way.
He has had a couple close calls with HBPs recently that made me a little nervous at the time. A week ago Sunday it looked like Pelfrey nailed him right on the elbow (lucky for him it only got him on the hand, which could have caused a major problem of its own), and a few days before that Broxton brushed his uniform (which was lucky for real) on a 98mph pitch that was also close to the elbow.
bski, Don’t you think Polly should suck it up and earn his dough with but 39 to go in a tight race? Elbow soreness? Sounds so 2010. Lame.
Pie Traynor is rollin’ over in his grave.
From what I can tell, Plac taking a night off is a night off. Anything else seems to be making more of it than is.
Castro was probably on the DL. You get down to the last 2-3 names, which is all that’s left, it’s most likely obscure names like that.
I’m going to make a non researched prediction. Nothing to lose a night’s sleep at this point, but it’s common opinion around baseball, or from what i read that manny Ramirez will be put on waivers and picked up by an AL team. The story stirs interest by presenting a platform that would enable the Red Sox to claim him, and block Tampa, said to be bennied by a bat. The White Sox and Rangers are also considered possibilities. My prediction is that an NL team will claim him first blocking the AL franchises from picking him up. Manny is still pretty expensive, about 5 mil until free agency. I think its realistic to say we have 6 contenders left for the 4 spots in our League. Of the 6, my suspicion is that everyone of the other 5 takes a serious look at adding ManRam. It’s whether they get through the lack of defense question that is likely the determining factor.
Manny. The T.O. of MLB. Big name on past, small story in payoff. Johnny Damon’s in play too.
Some likely worthless info on Hudson for tonight versus Rox…
he’s 0-2 with a 13.00 ERA in his only two starts at Coors Field. Granted, those starts were in 2005-2006, when the Rockies had a far more potent lineup and Hudson didn’t have the revitalized stuff he’s featured this season.
This part, unfortunately, might be more relavant…
do you all have any idea how the three scheduled Rockies pitchers in this series have fared against the Brave?
Of course not. Why would you? So let me give you the combined career record of right-hander Jason Hammel (tonight’s starter), lefty Jorge De La Rosa and righty Esmil Rogers against Los Bravos.
Are you ready? They are a combined 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA and .461 opponents’ average in six games (four starts) against the Braves, with 24 earned runs and 36 hits allowed in 17-1/3 innings.
Rogers, who starts Wednesday’s series finale against Jair Jurrjens, has not faced the Braves.
Hammel is 0-2 with a 12.66 ERA in three starts against the Braves, including an April 16 loss in Atlanta when he gave up eight hits and seven runs in just 1-2/3 innings. Eric Hinske and Martin Prado are both 3-for-3 against him, while Melky Cabrera is 3-for-11 (so maybe Hinske’s in left tonight?)
De La Rosa faced the Braves twice last, allowing seven rusn and five hits in 3-2/3 innings of a start in May and surrendering two runs in a one-inning relief appearance in July. His other appearance against them came in 2005.
Considering what Hammel has done lately (1-4 with a 4.89 ERA in his past seven starts) and how he’s fared in three starts against the Braves, one might consider tonight’s matchup with Tim Hudson to be about as one-sided in the Braves’ favor as a matchup could possibly be.
stuff is from David O’Brien, AJC beat guy.
Pray for snow.
jjg,
I think Polanco has been sucking it up and earning his dough right along, only taking a day here and there when the elbow flares up on him. He’s dealing with pain and inflammation from bone chips. He has taken two cortisone shots this year and plans on having off season surgery to take care of the problem.
I’m ok with giving him the occasional day to allow the elbow to settle down a bit, especially since it appears likely that doing so has allowed, and should continue to allow, him to give us consistent production.
Denver’s earliest date of first snow: Sept. 3, 1961
Earliest first freeze: Sept. 8, 1962
Jack Snow & Gene Freese.
bski, I’ve had cortisone shots in elbow too. Certainly takes the edge off discomfort. Of course, health and pain threshholds are individual
matters.
Kudos to him for timely base-smack yesterday. Just think it’s time to bear down, not let up. Maybe it’s a mental vacay, granted by Dr. Cholly Vincent Peale.
Blanton is really something else. Lucky the defense saved his bacon in the 1st or who knows what he would have given up (again).
Decided to check his ERA by inning (excluding tonight):
1st-8.55
2nd-3.60
3rd-3.15
4th-1.80
5th-4.26
6th-7.71
7th-15.12
8th-13.50
I know we are only in the 6th, Blanton has been throwing well, has only thrown 69 pitches through 5 innings, and isn’t due up in the bottom of the inning, but a look at those numbers tells me that, in a 2-1 game, we need to keep a close eye on him, and have a quick hook, starting right now.
Dear Ryan,
If Myers is still in the game (actually I’m guessing regardless of who is on the mound) for your next AB, you might want to start looking for curve balls and sliders (and nothing else!). Since you’re not recognizing how he is pitching you, I thought you could use the tip.
Sincerely,
B.ski
Geez, after striking out in his first two ABs Werth rips a ball for a double (good), only to get picked off 2nd to end the inning (D’oh!).
Needing to win every game we can, a little more focus is in order, no?
Nice job, Joe. 7 innings (6 strong) with 9Ks is a good way to go out tonight. Time to follow the Madson-Lidge blueprint the rest of the way (unless the offense can really push out to a nice lead).
Gotta be the last hitter for Myers. Let’s knock him out, Vic.
Knock him out, Vic, not us.