If the Phillies roster makes it to the playoffs healthy, I see no reason we wouldn’t be the NL favorites. Despite that, yesterday was the first time in some time that the Phils could actually say they were in line for a playoff spot, drawing even with Giants in the Wild Card race (but 1 ahead in the loss column).
Tomorrow, we expect Chase Utley back. Ryan Howard should be back by the weekend. Shane Victorino is now back. This recent stretch (18-5 in last 23) was done primarily without that trio, and getting them back (and keeping everyone else on the field) puts the sky as the limit for the Phils yet again.
2010: 66-51
2009: 68-49
2008: 64-53
2007: 62-55
The Good News
- This isn’t really “good news” per se, but it’s interesting. Cole Hamels has been much better this year than last year, right? Well, his WHIP (1.23) is almost exactly the same as last year (1.29) and he’s given up more HR/9 and has a higher BB/9 rate as well. So why is he doing so much better? First, he was flat out unlucky last year (a .325 BABIP vs. .270 the year prior) and second, his increased velocity has meant there are less balls being put into play in the first place as he has increased his K/9 rate from 7.8 to 9.2. This is a good example of why pitchers who can strike guys out are a lot more consistent than those who can’t (see Kendrick, Kyle).
- Yes, Joe Blanton has been horrible, but part of the horrible-ness (deal with the “word” choice) has been luck. Blanton has been one of the unluckiest pitchers all season long. Why do I say this? First, he has the biggest difference in baseball between his actual ERA (5.69) and his fielding independent ERA or FIP (4.46). Second, he has the 8th highest BABIP in baseball (.334) and that is up 32 points from last year. And finally, he has the lowest LOB% in baseball at 63.6%. Yes, part of that is his fault, but there is also luck factored in there as that stat is pretty random from year-to-year. This is not to excuse Blanton for his performance, but rather to offer hope that he really isn’t that far off from turning it around.
- I assume people saw the stat on ESPN last night that Ruiz leads the majors in go-ahead RBI from the 7th inning on (7), but I figured I’d re-post here, because that is awesome.
- The most encouraging sign (by far) in Brad Lidge’s last 7 appearances (6 saves) is that he has zero walks. That would be a sign that he is getting some control back. 6.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB. Hopefully he can keep it up.
- The 8th inning is looking pretty solid as well, with Ryan Madson now sporting a 1.93 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 13 K/9 in 18.2 innings since returning from injury. Actually, “pretty solid” in an understatement. 15 K’s in 8.1 IP in August. Yikes! Now about that 7th inning…
The Bad News
- How does Cole Hamels have a 7-9 record??? They didn’t get him a single hit on Friday (he had to break up the no-no himself).
- If Ibanez can get crazy hot, then certainly J-Roll (.594 OPS since all-star break) can too, right?
Prospect Update: Kelly Dugan, the team’s 2nd round pick in last year’s draft has missed most of the season with some sort of health problem. Well, he’s back, and has been destroying Gulf Coast League pitching at an astonishing rate. Yes, a player like him probably should if he wants to be considered a decent prospect, but 19 for 30 (.633) with a .933 SLG% is just stupid. Will be interesting to see how he does against proper competition next year.
Series Preview: Giants at Phillies
Probables
Tuesday (7:05): Oswalt vs. LHP Barry Zito (8-6, 3.44 ERA)
Wednesday (7:05): Blanton vs. RHP Matt Cain (9-9, 3.11 ERA)
Thursday (7:05): Hamels vs. LHP Jonathan Sanchez (8-8, 3.60 ERA)
3 Questions for The Series
- When will Utley play and how will he look?
- Pat Burrell, back in Philly?
- Can Joe Blanton please do something good?
Series Prediction
At first I though we were in good shape missing Lincecum, but the way he’s been pitching, you could easily argue that we actually drew the Giants 3 toughest pitchers. The Giants offense has also improved greatly over the last couple months with the additions of Buster Posey, Burrell and Jose Guillen. It’s really going to come down to which starting pitchers step up and I think the Phils might have the advantage as this will likely be the loudest opposing crowd (and the most important game) these Giants starters have seen all year. Phils take 2 of 3 and the Wild Card lead.
If sheer determine has any say in the matter, then Utley will come back on fire, lol.
It’ll be nice to see Pat the Bat back but I hope he goes on a slump for this series. Lidge – hopefully will be Lidge. Maybe he’s finally coming to terms with not being able to throw 95 and has adjusted.
A sweep would be huge but unlikely. Sanchez gives them trouble. Cain is dirty and Zito isn’t bad. This series could go either way. I don’t want Utley to mess up what they’ve got going. I really like Ibanez batting out of the three-hole.
Buster Olney from ESPN has this section on his daily blog, the patience index. If you read his stuff regularly, you might notice, there are rarely any phillies on there.
Pete, if you’re up for some research, I was wondering how poorly the phillies rank in this category? In years past, I would say this was a strength, but this year, I don’t recall seeing too many Phillies on that list.
They will have to be very patient if they’re going to pull out this division and or wild card. I really think the season will come down to the 6 remaining games against the braves. That’s slightly over simplified, but those are the most important of the season.
And there is no doubt they’re the favorites to win the NL if they make the playoffs. Cardinals are scary, Cincin can ball, and i wouldn’t want to play the giants or the padres. But none of those teams are as deep as the phillies, top to bottom. They just have to get in…
The patience index tracks the number of pitches taken by an individual player.
Not that I view Lidge with blatant negativity, but I think one thing that will make me more positive is when he gets an inning of established type hitters and conqueros them. Like a Ryan Zimmerman, who goes to the plate knowing he owns Lidge, and then doesn’t. And guess who we play next series? I’m almost ready to give him a pass on a blown save long as it isn’t one of those absolute killers.
Lidge didn’t top 90 Sunday night and yet was ultra effective. I wonder how hard he’ll throw against the Giants.
<<If the Phillies roster makes it to the playoffs healthy, I see no reason we wouldn’t be the NL favorites.>>
<<And there is no doubt they’re the favorites to win the NL if they make the playoffs. Cardinals are scary, Cincin can ball, and i wouldn’t want to play the giants or the padres. But none of those teams are as deep as the phillies, top to bottom. They just have to get in…>>
Sorry, but I’ll join in the 6 weeks out speculation and leave such certainty at 2.
This is one evenly balanced tournament, no matter who gets in, and I have no doubt the Phils can beat anyone, but to expect it based on being a favorite is more than I care to share in. You’ll excuse me if I want to respect the Padres terrific pitching. You”ll excuse me if I think the Giants have increased their offense adequately. You’ll excuse me if I point out that lefty bullpen help, for an all important, series turning late inning at bat hasn’t been solved more than hopefully. I appreciate the passion and enthusiasm. I’ll pass on the “win if we’re in” bumber stickers for now.
I’ll do my best to intimidate the Giants. I’ll be there the next two nights sitting near Pat the Bat. I’ll be chatting it up with him about his dog Elvis.
on the prospect front, there was a huge disappointment that the phillies did not sign 5th rounder scott frazier. looks like he is another brandon workman
Barner,
Yeah, disappointing they didn’t sign Frazier. But they did get some others done in Walter, Pointer and Musser.
At this point, you have to trust the Phillies scouting dept. They’ve made far more good decisions than bad since Gillick came in and re-vamped everything.
Jake -
On the pitches seen question…
The Phillies actually rank 8th in take percentage in baseball. They don’t swing at 55.8% of pitches. Red Sox are 1st (57.2%), Yankees are 2nd (56.6%).
They are 10th in contact%, making contact with 81.9% of the balls they swing at. The Royals are 1st in this category (85.5%).
NL hitting pitchers & AL DH would seem to skew or unbalance those numbers for comparison’s work.
From #4: when he gets an inning of established type hitters and conqueros them.
General Mills stopped making Conqueros a long time ago, Ken.
They were the original “Breakfast of Champions”, though. Since it was a cereal aimed mainly at children, having the images and histories of Alexander the Great, Hannibal, Julius Caesar, Napoleon Bonaparte, and other marauding tyrants on box after box got a little too heavy after a while. Looking to promote a happier image, the name was changed to Cheerios and Wheaties was created to take over in its place.
Sorry for the non-baseball aside but I just couldn’t resist (those darn typos
).
Well, there was a meeting today. One that was perhaps anticipated like this the moment he went down. You knew he’d be back early. And the flies on the wall have reported back to production central, and reported just how that meeting went down. With literal translation into plain and simple, if not clean English, it went down like this. It all started with a knock.
knock knock
RAJ: Who’s there?
Chase: Chase
RAJ: Chase Manhattan? Sorry all my money’s tied up in payroll.
Chase: No, man, its fuckin Utley
RAJ: Oh, yeah, come on in
RAJ: What’s up Chase? Kerf and I were just goin over our plans for you.
Chase: What’s up Kerf? Sorry abut yakkin so much on the plane last night
Kerfeld: Yeah, well, at least your talking game is big league.
RAJ: So Chase, welcome back from Florida. Charlie saw you play all the games, and thinks your still rusty.
Chase: Man, fuck that. Charlie played for Houston, what the hell does he know?
Kerfeld: Dude, I made a lot of guys .300 hitters.
RAJ: Anyway, I know Florida’s hot, but we want to shoot you up to Reading and we’ll start you out over the weekend against some softer pitching. The Nats have a rookie going Friday here.
Chase: Man, I have to play tonight. I already greased my hair back.
Kerfeld: Chase, you did make a couple errors down there, ya know? It’s a couple days away.
Chase: Of course I made errors. I’m in mid fuckin season form.
RAJ: And you only hit .250.
Chase: Man fuck that. Yo papa couldn’t hit .250 in batting practice.
RAJ: We really have nobody to cut, no room tonight.
Chase: Man, cut Valdez
RAJ: Guy’s was DFA’d already this year. I don’t wanna hurt his feelings.
Chase: Then cut Bastardo.
RAJ: No can do. Might need an unintentional walk. He’s good at that.
Chase: Then fuckin whack Dobbs, for cryin out loud.
RAJ: Okay.
Chase: Good, then it’s settled?
RAJ: I guess. Where are you gonna hit in the lineup?
Chase: 2nd man, get me closer to Jimmy so we can bond and be better at double plays.
RAJ: Okay, I guess we could do that.
Chase: Alright, fuckers, I’ve got swings to take, balls to catch and teammates to talk to. Gotta go.
RAJ: Alright, Ut. Great to have ya back.
Chase: Yeah, man, its a good time to be in Philly. Hey Rube, by the way, when I came in, your secretary wasn’t there, but some big black dude was out in the lobby, and said he needed to talk to you. Somethin about an appoinment at first base at 7:05 or some shit. Send him in?
RAJ: Nah, I just do this stuff once a day. Maybe later in the week.
Chase: Alright, dude. be cool. World Fuckin Champs forever.
RAJ: Right on, bro.
Matt Gelb, Inky, hard at work on one of the more appreciated afternoons in Bank history. And a Kodak moment on the tweet related to Domonic Brown. Maybe a one day Hall of Famer perhaps watching another. And both Phillies.
Ross Gload taking BP. Looks fine in the field and should be ready to go. 26 minutes ago via UberTwitter
Utley will not be speaking to reporters before the game. about 1 hour ago via UberTwitter
A teaching moment: Charlie standing with Brown behind the cage as Utley hits. about 1 hour ago via UberTwitter
PHI vs SF: Rollins 6, Utley 4, Polanco 5, Werth 9, Victorino 8, Sweeney 3, Ibanez 7, Ruiz 2, Oswalt 1 about 2 hours ago via UberTwitter
On the blog: What Utley’s addition means for the rest of the roster http://bit.ly/aFua3U #Phillies about 2 hours ago via TweetDeck
even if he provides nothing significant at all, the boost to the psyche of the team with having Chase back in the lineup should be enough incentive to play him right away.
plus he’ll bitch and whine all day if he sits on the bench. thats no good for chemistry.
funny. that was all KB concocted, or do sources need acknowledgment?
lets see how we do against a rejuvenated Zito, outside the friendly confines of AT & T park.
I thought Frazier would be this years Brody Colvin. Guess not.
Lineup reactions: Chase 2nd – well, classically, he’s not 3rd because he’s not a power hitter right now. Have to assume between timing and rust, let alone any physical incapability whatsover, it’ll take a few games to drive the ball consistently. He had been 2nd some anyway because of the team slump, of which he was a major contributor. Assume his knee is certainly better than was.
Raul 7 – He’s cooled off. Did seem comfty in the power spots, which came after he started banging. Hopefully the cooling is a blip, because if it is, a productive 7 with power is really good. I assume its some sort of matchup deal that has Shane 5, although Charlie might have solid reason for it.
jkay – negative on do we need to credit sources. Would sources want credit if applicable? Perhaps even more negative.
. Enjoy the game, I’m sure we’ll cross paths before its over.
I really think Pat ran parts of the homer out faster than he ran when he was trying to earlier in his career. Makes for a nice story. Just hope it ends there.
Welcome back Pat the Bat….
Glad he got a nice ovation…not the result I was hoping for….
dont get why Ibanez is batting so low in lineup. drop Victorino or Werth.
Oswalt being careless early. am sure Pat’s gonna be writing in his diary tonight.
this is good to watch, like he never left
I can only guess the lefty on lefty.
Watching Zito, and realizing hiow long its been since he was young and good, and how long ago it was that Mark Mulder was, you really appreciate Tim Hudson’s outstanding season, espcially of late. Great Oakland pitching. At least Zito wasn’t fooling people. Hopefully a sign of things to come.
Maybe I get a quicker answer here. Did John Runyan finally retire? TIA
I just couldn’t resist (those darn typos ).<< re: conquerOs
I missed this earlier. I have never done a typo in my life. I have simply added a lot of words to the English language. A lot, and then some.
One thing about this recent Cole discussion. If you do fall behind, as Roy O has, and you aren’t getting support, there is still a lot to be said for a pitcher keeping his team in the game as Roy has to this point.
The Giants, on the oher hand, so often you want to get into a team’s pen, but its no picnic here if you do. They aren’t unbeatable, no pen is, but this is a challenging team to beat.
Interesting that Utley comes back for game 1 of a 23 in 22 day stretch, or damn close. Haven’t seen the last of Wilson Valdez. Especially since Chase played Sat, Sun and Mon.
we’ve hit a lot of balls hard tonight, no luck yet. frustrating.
there we go. see if we can get 2 on for the top of the order here. heaven forbid another dp.
true Pete but we’ve also been swinging at his offspeed stuff.
we cant get lulled into playing these types of games with the Giants; cant expect to get to their bullpen to win the game.
cmon put that 85mph junk in the seats!
maybe this is the inning – got get at least one.
if we get Chooch on, 1st and 2nd typre result, good spot to get Roy O bunt down, and Jimmy up.
here we go
ball 4, unreal
Chooch is actually pretty good at extending at bats. Not surprising
Barry’s working hard, but again, their bullpen is no picnic. Nice to turn te order over, but we need runs
hopefully Sarge and McCarthy can figure out whether Oswalt is going to bunt here
50-50 Pete
maybe Roy can figure out that’ he’s bunting here
winning baseball
needless to say, Jimmy walking is high drama, but lets get a hit
PHILLIES BABSEBALL
cue Goodfellas….
JIIMMMMMMYYYYY!!!!! JIMMMMMMMYYYY!!!!!
no matter what Tom McCarthy says, he says it as if it’s awesome…
“2 RBI’s for Jimmy! That’s 27 on the season!”
no mas small ball, drill one Chase
One thing about that inning. As Chase and RyHo get back into their games, we’ve shown some real small ball capability of late, and we need their power, but the small ball execution to set them up. Sometimes we haven’t done that, but that was great to see. Kudos to Chooch for a great setup ab, and Roy O for finally laying it down.
Pete, real nice work on the Allen piece
well, that was a difficult inning for Roy – lets get him the lead!
excellent job Oz
Roy is at 83 p through 6
and retired 16 of 18 since Pat
good way to beat their precious bullpen here.
I’d take a walk here and risk the DP. Well, kinda. Sweeney has to go deep at some point.
amazing what run support does for a pitcher when he falls behind and regroups
up to date
Plac .324
Joey .322
Gonzalez .321
Sweeney is at bum status right now. Dobbs might even be a better option.
Casilla could struggle against a patient veteran team here. Guess who fits that description. Not a control specialist
geez, what a lousy swing, good call jkay.
this is interesting..
This kid can certainly throw, but he has 19 BB and 9 WP in 33 innings. We’ll see if he faces the top of the lineup how he does.
Atlanta Bottom 6th
- Jason Heyward walked. Runners on first and third with none out and Martin Prado due up.
- Omar Infante tripled to right. Runner on third with none out and Jason Heyward due up.
- Pinch-Hitter Diory Hernandez lead-off Home Run (1) to left. Omar Infante due up.
- Diory Hernandez is pinch-hitting for Mike Minor.
Union head Mike Weiner on K-Rod: The #Mets actions are without basis and I expect the union will challenge them right away >>
from Keith Law
I suspect Charlie wants to get more than 7 from Roy on a regular basis, but it looks like he’d e risky off a hard work 7th.
We haven’t seen Contreras in a few days.
Roy’s at 106.
Kendrick vs. Strasburg Saturday
This’d be a tough one to lose. I hope the pen is up to the task.
Eat your heart out Joey Votto. 4-4 for Plac
If Ryan goes 1-2-3, they send Huff, pat and Sandoval up against Brad.
Kinda makes me wish he’d put 1-2 on. Pretty weird way to think.
huge AB here with RISP
So we have Shane, Sweeney and Raul up. Wonder if Gload might swing for Sweeney. Not a bad setup since we have a PH after Chooch if we get that far.
A run or more wouldn’t hurt.
Well, I have to wonder about Sweeney here and not Gload. See how it goes. I assume Ross could play.
Phillies have gone 53 innings without a homer. Last homer: Gload, seventh inning, last Tuesday vs. Dodgers.
TZ
Great effort by Shane tonight. Clutch player rounding into late season requirements.
Interesting matchup by BB letting Ray face Raul.
That’s cool. We’ll trade a run for a dp if we have to.
More late inning ribbie action for a soon to be ex-underrated player. And breathing room for Brad.
Have to see if the Giants have lefty in the pen issues also. Big part of the game, many included in this good one might have been BB going with Ray against raul.
Carlos Ruiz has hit .361 (26-for-72) with eight doubles, three homers and 20 RBIs in his last 18 games.
Wonder if Valdez plays 2B in the 9th.
I don’t know who Charlie gives the 9th to. JC for the work? Baez to try to stay a little sharp? Herndon since it so oit of control. Does it matter?
How about that: Oswalt still undefeated at CBP!!
Final tidbits for the night….
Cards and Reds are both losing, every little bit helps, personally, I’m focussed on catching the Braves, but as jkay said, home field is worth watching. And those 2 are wild card related 1 way or another. Pads a 1-0 winner.
Utley: Maybe the recovery time prognosticatos say too long. Typical.
11-5 through the first 16 of the final 60 games – need to get to 37 wins. We need to go 26-18 rest of way to assure a playoff spot.
Halladay (9-3) (3-0)
Hamels (8-4) (1-2)
Oswalt (8-4 (3-1)
Blanton (6-6) (2-1)
Kendrick (6-6) (2-1)
I like the small ball but missing the dingers. Can’t believe it dried up for this entire team pretty much all year long. Must be killing Charlie. It is like the trainer was spiking the common juice with PEDs for the previous 4 years and he got caught in spring training.
We go 26-17 without Utley and during that same period significant games were missed buy Howard, Victorino, Madsen, Rollins, and Polanco. And how is Charlie not in manager of the year discussion? You could do worse if that was your NL all-star team in the bench.
Still have to love the mentality of this team– Cholly and the team is saying the wild card does not matter, but they have their eyes on the division. This is on the game recap. I think the Phillies will make the playoffs, whichever way it comes.
But give the Braves credit for holding that lead tightly. They are like a clone of the Phillies with that swagger, that hitting, that pitching, and their great play at home. It is like Godzilla vs Mega-Godzilla. In the end, you hope the real Phillies win. The big differences may be the road records and the injury bug situations for both teams. Getting that division crown will certainly come down to those series games with the Braves.
GO PHILS!!
I’m starting to appreciate the Braves playing so well. I think a major reason why the Phils won the WS in 2008 was because they had to chase down the Mets just to make the playoffs. With a goal in mind, they became a focused team. Madson, Lidge, Hamels and Howard got into and stayed in the zone. And the Phils went into an unstoppable run starting in Sept of that year.
Having a target to chase reminds me a lot of that year. It certainly feels better than 2009 when it felt like they were a bit complacent down the stretch playing with a 7+ game lead. Lidge is on a roll. Hamels is better than ever. This rotation is better than ever.
My biggest concern is not the bullpen but the inconsistent performance of the offense. They’ve made mediocre starters look like All-Stars. They’ve been shutout 4 or 5 times by the Mets. They were no-hit by RA Dickey (Hamels doesn’t count to me). Blame it on the injuries but Utley and Howard were in the middle of slumps right before their injuries. Same with Victorino and Rollins. The good thing is Victorino’s injury seems to have snapped him out of his slump and Rollins is maybe getting out of his… or maybe not. Utley should be stronger down the stretch than in previous years. To go all the way, this offense has to get on a major roll again.
They’ve made mediocre starters look like All-Stars.>>
Tony,
If you think that quality is unique to the Phils, over the next week, pick 10 games where a club should win because they are facing an inferior starter, and see if it goes according to plan. I think it’s realistic to guess that it won’t go that way several times. Besides the Dickey example, here are some games today that may not exactly fit the description, but feature some less than great pitchers going against clubs reputed to hit well, that should be focussed.
Better and or more games to compare are sure to be played in the coming days.
Reds Volquez (3-1) versus Dbacks Lopez (5-11)
Brewers Wolf (9-9) versus Cards Wainright (17-6)
And I’m not suggesting those type losses don’t annoy me either, but I doubt we are alone, or that much worse than most winning clubs.
And how is Charlie not in manager of the year discussion?>>
Charlie’s right in the discussion. He’s matched up against Bobby Cox, who’s managing a club that was pronounced dead for the first time in May. He’s up against Bud Black, who’s managing a club that in early summer was the source of a promise to eat a hat if Black’s club finished within 5 games of the wild card.
Seems to me like as good a job as Charlie’s doing, and it definitely seems like he is to me, then maybe he’s behind others since their clubs were so inferior and they both remain closer to printing playoff tickets at this point than a few other NL clubs.
From Rosenthal a couple minutes ago
Glaus could be placed on DL if #Braves acquire Lee. Also told that Lee has signaled willingness to waive no-trade rights. #Cubs #MLB
Early look at the Stros matchup early next week
FYI, for Ed Wade Reunion Tour ’10 next week, looks like Myers on Mon and Happ on Wed against the #Phillies. Oswalt will miss the #Astros
They’ll miss Figgy. He is scheduled to start Sunday vs. Florida.
Matt Gelb
Just some personal immediate reaction to this Lee to the Braves rumor that Rosenthal is working. One, you have to give the Braves immeasurable credit. They mean business about competing, and it probably ties so much to Cox’s last year. Duh.
Glaus seems to be doing a little better of late. Its not like it’s too late, and Derek Lee is on paper a tremendous, tremendous acquisition for them. Not having a great year, but better than when he nixed the trade to the Angels. Free agent, highly notivated, and off his 2008 playoff failure, no doubt extra motivated to make up for it. Would be an excellent move, and could well win the Braves 1-3 extra games, which would could well make a difference.
Lee is a superior defender, too. Glaus is a gutsy guy, but it’s not working out on the whole.
One, you have to give the Braves immeasurable credit.>>
Not sure I follow. They just lost Chipper and Glaus is somewhat of a dissappointment, and may have injured himslelf last night. They are in the thick of the race. Isn’t this just doing their job? If they wouldn’t go and get help they should only get criticism. RAJ gets lambasted when we get an injury and don’t have a replaceent the next day. How come the Braves get immeasurable credit? Not like it will cost them much of anything. He is not having a very good year and he is a FA to be.
They mean business about competing>>
They are 2.5 games up in mid-August…is their an alternative?
70-49, 2.5 games up. I’d say that’s working out on the whole.
Glaus PA 466 HR 16 RBI 70 OBP .343 OPS+ 102
Lee PA 475 HR 16 RBI 56 OBP .335 OPS+ 94
Don’t see those 1-3 extra games in above ’10 numbers. Maybe it’s in the glove work.
Today, try these on for Cys: Wainwright v Brewers (afternoon), Johnson @ Pirates, Hudson v Nationals.
Seems to me like as good a job as Charlie’s doing, and it definitely seems like he is to me, then maybe he’s behind others since their clubs were so inferior and they both remain closer to printing playoff tickets at this point than a few other NL clubs.>>
Charlie has ended up anaging little more than a triple A team part of the year. Obviously my comments were made in the beginning of the year when we were at full strength. With the exception of Heyward for a spell, Atlanta was very healthy all year until losing Prado for 15 and now Chipper. Sand Diego has been healthy all year. And the year is not over yet. They were season predictions, not through mid-August.
Lee seems to be having a sub-par season by his standards.
Glaus is having a very good season, by his recent standards anyway.
if their numbers are similar, its clear who’s the upgrade.
former gold glove and batting champ, but i think the best days are behind.
Braves have very good chemistry as a team. sum of parts is definitely more than the individual pieces. i wonder if replacing Glaus with Chipper gone, would leave them better off.
geez grammar correction: whole as opposed to sum of the parts.
Glaus has knees that wouldn’t allow him to play 3rd. That’s just not an option. I know Glaus got some big hits the last 2 weeks, not a lot, but maybe 4-5. But by no stretch of the imagination is he having a good year. I do think he got off to a good start (that’s memory, might be wrong, but the season numbers jjg posted sure suggest that because I know he went through a horrific stretch where he batted either under or at .200 for a couple months, and there was a lot of unrest amongst their fans to call up this 6’5, 230 1st baseman Freddie Freeman over the last few weeks.
I suggested Lee might win them 1-3 games off potential clutch hitting. It’s by no means a promise. But I would absolutely expect a rejuvinated player with free agency pending, an exciting race, and I have to assume the yearn to get back in post season and make up for that Cub flop, in part induced by Lee’s failure to hit in 08.
And I give the Braves credit for doing everything they can to reduce weaknesses. That’s not a criticism of the Phils or any other club, its been obvious in recent weeks that Glaus needed to pick it up, and they made a gutsy move. My definition of gutsy here is a guy you are really counting on to provide offense when you don’t have a lot, and finally decide to pull the trigger this close to the stretch.
I get the impression I may think more of this move than the other thoughts I’m reading. It might not work out as positively for ATL as I think it might, but I’m inclined to think Derek Lee will be a plus over Glaus.
Hopefully, its much adieu about very little.
So maybe its not a great example of how other clubs lose to pitchers they seemingly should beat (related to how Phils lose to mediocore pitchers), but Randy Wolf stood tall against the Cards today. He gave up 3 hits and 1 earned run in 8.1. Wainright gave up an uncharacteristic 3 runs in 7 (what a compliment!), and the Brewers win 3-2, and don’t ya think we’d be screaming about our offense with righty hitters like Pujols and Holliday against a lefty, add secondarily that the defeat could conceivably effect AW’s CY bid. I hate when it happens to us, and it’s just one example of losing to a pitcher who ya think you can beat, even if Wolf is better than mediocore, if an example at all.
PHI vs. SF: Rollins 6, Polanco 5, Utley 4, Ibanez 7, Werth 9, Victorino 8, Gload 3, Ruiz 2, Blanton 1 >>
One of these games, I think we’re going to bat out of order. You really need to check where you’re hitting everyday. Charlie must really think about this stuff.
Derrek Lee for right-handers Robinson Lopez, 19, and Tyrelle Harris, 23, and lefty Jeffrey Lorick, 22. Anyone have info on these prospects?
Philly,
I think this links to baseball refernce.con
When Derrek Lee takes the field at Wrigley this weekend, he won’t be wearing a Cubs uniform. The Braves have acquired Lee from Chicago in exchange for right-hander Robinson Lopez, right-hander Tyrelle Harris and left-hander Jeffrey Lorick.
Glaus went to the DL.
How many runs do you guys think Blanton will give up in the first? I say 2.
I’ll say 0 Ruben. Always expect the unexpected. Goid reason, huh?
1?
Blanton should just throw a bullpen session right before he starts any game.
Blanton needs to stimulate the first inning while warming up or something, cus I’m tired of joe giving up a bunch of runs in the first.
As usual, demonstrating a rare ability make insightful predictions. Ruben asks how many runs Blanton gives up, and I nailed it to the decimal on the 2nd guess.
ok, serious prediction…we’re losing, big game. JRoll is 3-7 off Cain lifetime. So I predict he feeds off that and finds a way to get on.
that might have been our shot with Cain. hopefully Blanton can settle down and we can get Cain’s pitch count up and get him out of there within a run or two
Pete,
I don’t think that will be our shot at him. Their starters having struggled lately, Cain could step up and show ace level stuff on the big game challenge and all, but we have done okay against this guy in the past, though faced him more regularly early on. I think we score off him if Blanton keeps it close. If Joe lets it get to 4-0 or so, he’ll groove, I think. But I think this is a very winnable game.
anybody know the answer to that trivia question?
now make no mistake about it, somebody better drive JRoll in because I haven’t a clue what signal a pitcher gives that you can steal home
dont get more clutch than this
Too bad Blanton did not bunt it over to the 3rd baseman. Doesn’t matter with a Rollins home run!
ok, serious prediction…we’re losing, big game. JRoll is 3-7 off Cain lifetime. So I predict he feeds off that and finds a way to get on.
Good call KB
This looks like the Phillies offense of old tonight. Working deep counts, hitting balls hard, and making a star pitcher look like Tim Redding.
Tim Redding, for some reason pitches very good against us.
and making a star pitcher look like Tim Redding.>>
isn’t potential star more valid? I mean he’s good, but…
Thx jurnee
Carlos Ruiz’s single in fourth gave Phillies the lead. Twelve of his 34 RBIs this season are go-ahead RBIs, which ranks second on the team.>>
from Zoelecke
comment: do we have a fairer valued player?
well, I asked, and nobody chose to guess, but I’m almost positive the only SF Gaint to win a CY was Mike McCormick, who was 22-9 the year he did it.
IMO Blanton should not be going out there for the 7th.
IMO Blanton should not be going out there for the 7th.>>
I really think that even having seen what’s transpired, I’d have let him start the inning. Obviously, you were right, but I’d have rolled the dice. Just to keep things soft on the pen.
he was pitching well alright but its just that we cant afford a mistake now.
Chase has turned 2 very nice dps upon return. I’d have anticipated a little bit of defensive rust, but he looks sharp.
Outstanding job by Charlie on the move.
See, if its Oswalt, I’d have definitely pressed my luck by extending him an inning, because we want to have him in mode to go deep into potential post season games. But Joe has no chance of just filling out the regular season, so no point conditioning him to go late into games. That’s why there was no reason other than maybe sotening the pen work load, and its not like they are overworked. You called it correctly.
I meant thats all Blnton will do, fill out the regular season, and maybe 3-4 long man innings in the potential playoffs.
There’s a Hall of Famer on 2nd base.
Hudson’s out, Venters in T8 2-2. Good outing by TH, but not spectacular enough to gain CY ground.
this is Phillies Baseball.
Sanchez tomorrow. Advantage Giants in that he’s a good lefty. That discounts that the Phils are seeing grapefruits at the plate, but you have to respect history, and RyHo or not, we’re not a phoenomanal team against lefties.
But I don’t like the pressure he’s under. He needs a solid game to rest their pen. Their starters are not getting it done, they will be 6 back of the Pads if we hold up, which is what all this is predicated on anyway. Plus, Sanchez can’t be too bright. He publicly predicted the G-Men would sweep Los Padros last weekend, which is a really bright thing to say. Some guys let their pitching arms against opponents. San Diego won 2 of 3. At SF.
I lean toward Cole silencing the W part of his record is lacking crowd for at least this start, and no reason he shouldn’t pitch well against the Stros his next start.
Mota used to be pretty good.
So was Mel Ott once upon a time.
I love that kid
oh yeah, curtain call, and JRoll double
T9 in ATL, 2-2
Hopefully the Nats let Bryce Harper pinch hit, and we get to 1.5.
That would be wild.
Tell me D Brown is not gonna sell tickets.
What a stud shot
Billy struck out the Nats T9 – so if the Braves Magic is off in the bottom, maybe we have a shot with Wags and Venters gone.
I think the Braves plan to win out.
Unbelievable.
Heyward and DB tonight – our division’s future
Braves just wont budge.
this is gonna be fun.
Philly,
You prolly found it by now, but here’s some stuff on the prospects the braves traded, and a link to Keith Law’s assessment of the trade (says they paid a steep price), for which you need to be an Insider.
As for the minor leaguers heading to Chicago, Baseball America ranked Lopez 16th among Braves prospects before the season and suggested that he “may be the biggest sleeper in the [Atlanta] system.” He’s still just 19, but his numbers in A ball haven’t been as impressive as the ones he posted in his Rookie ball debut last year. Lopez has a 4.37 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 so far in 2010.
Harris, 23, has played at three levels this season and has now reached AA. Overall, the reliever has a 2.90 ERA with 10.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. Lorick, also a reliever, has yet to reach AA, but the 22-year-old has solid numbers so far in 2010: a 2.24 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9.
Reaction to the Derrek Lee trade, for Insiders: http://klaw.me/ctcxia 10 minutes ago via web
Unlike the Phils, the Braves have actually let go of some real good prospects in recent trades that they wish they had back…some that come to mind are…
Adam Wainwright (JD Drew), Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus (Texieira)
And both Drew and Teixeira only played one season for the Braves….
Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus (Texieira).
Not that the Braves haven’t offset the sacrifice of Feliz by finding other ways to build an effective bullpen to this point, and Alex Gonzalez (though I don’t recall the price paid) is pretty acceptable at short, but that would up a helluva price to pay for about a full year of Texieria. Here’s a complete listing of the players included, plus if you turned Tex over to the Angels and got equal quality, then losing Andrus, Feliz, and more, its one thing, but….
July 31, 2007: Traded by the Texas Rangers with Ron Mahay to the Atlanta Braves for Beau Jones (minors), Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
July 29, 2008: Traded by the Atlanta Braves to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for Steve Marek (minors) and Casey Kotchman
Wainright was drafted by the Braves in the year 2000, 29th pick, 1st round.
The 15th pick that year was Chase Utley. The first pick was Adrian Gonzalez.
Rocco Baldelli was selected 4th, Kelly Johnson 38th.
In ensuing years, Wainright, pre trade to the Cards, drew these opinions from Baseball America.
Pre-2001: Rated #97 Prospect
Pre-2002: Rated #42 Prospect
Pre-2003: Rated #18 Prospect
Pre-2004: Rated #49 Prospect
Wainright’s minor league career was nothing special. A couple 10-10 seasons, WHIP averaged about 1.3, ERA’s 3-5. JD Drew is a good player, not ever worth draining your prospects for, but Wainright has made that trade look silly almost entirely since going to the Cards, where he was the closer on the 06 overachieing WS winner. Perhaps Dave Duncan helped him a lot after he got over there.
With pitching failure comes outfield depth. Joe Savery.
http://zozone.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/08/savery_picks_up_a_bat.html
Thank you, Ken. I am not an insider but it’s alright.
Last year, the ever so blow in the wind fan base decided the world might end when the Phils late season activities included the likes of losing 2 of 3 to the Giants, not to mention 4 straight losses at home to the Stros. Can’t play small ball, Hamels sucks, what’s wrong with Cliff Lee, and da beer at da Bank is too flat were popular venting screams enroute to a 2nd straight, yes Phillie historians, you read that right NL flag.
Hot was hot, and cold was cold.
Now, somebody has at least temporarily taken the shoe and put it on another foot. Carlos Ruiz, in the last 2 weeks has eclipsed memories of an earlier slump with first ballot HofF results in the last couple weeks. You hit .360 and see if the Hall doesn’t invite you to it’s party. TV Directors are scripting in advance when Chooch gets to the plate in RBI ops in the late innings. People think Cole Hamels sucks when he gives up a run. Heard anyone complain about Raul Ibanez getting a 2nd year on his deal? They lined up to burn Brad Lidge in effigy, only to revert to a standing ovation when there was no lighter fluid to be found.
Ah, the joys of what is.
Most of the peeps have already decided this here NL East drama is going down to the final 2 weekends when the Phils and Braves hook up in the same stadium.
Say what?
Is that really and truly our destiny?
Cards sweep the Reds, and now the Reds lead by 3. Giants go about 17-5 in July, and now face playoff outtage with more road games against would be playoff teams post Citizens Bank. Rays lose 5 straight, and 2 starters, and the AL East standings look pretty tied this morning. Don’t even ask about the Sox-Twins roller coaster.
More or less in a 3 week time frame.
You know how hot the Phils have been of late, colorfully described above, let alone with your own vision.
You sense how the Braves have turned up the heat with their own version of winning baseball. But summarize it with your own eyes by reading this 8 day capsule.
<<Eight days before, Chipper Jones went down in Houston on a night the Braves lost a lead in the eighth inning. They won that night in their final at-bat, won the next day in their final at-bat, won Monday on Melky’s walkoff single, won Wednesday on Heyward’s. They’re 7-1 since the moment Chipper wrenched his knee, and their lead over Philadelphia refuses to shrink. And now Derrek Lee is on the way.>>
Ah, the joy of hope, and winning times forever. More inspiring that any rendition of High Hopes ever crooned by Harry, no matter how glorious a win it was.
But remember the 4 game losing streak at home to Houston last year. Remember the stench of not moving runners last September. Remember how great the Cardinals were in early September only unable to hit a la ker plunk that ended their season uncerimoniously. Good times will come and go in the next 3 weeks. Here, Atlanta, and all points around the contender circuit.
Don’t take those last 6 games for granted.
Just be glad that healthy, and experienced is back. It’s a little more dependable than lucky. The next 3 weeks will decide if those last 6 are as big as can be, or somewhere between less and significantly less. While that does seem unlikely, there’s a better chance of that than people seem to think.
That’s called justifiable optimism.
I am not an insider but it’s alright>>
Me either, but I’m sure you found plenty by now. I get the impression lopez is potentially a terrific add to the Cubs. The other 2 look chancier, but who knows how they devlop.
Hmmmm. Pedro Feliz is a Redbird.
Good chance for him.
Ryan Howard will begin a rehab assignment tomorrow in Class A Lakewood>>
That is too funny. Imagine the look on the Class A pitcher’s face when The Big Piece steps to the plate and points that bat. Talk about a moment to share with the grandkids someday even if the pitcher is out of baseball next year.
Ken Bland, whatever you’re doing, you’re in the wrong profession.
You are the Bill Lyon of this site. Top notch writing, if but a bit less perfect spelling.
The Braves finally lost – 6-2 to the Nats. The Phils better score for Hamels – it’ll be nice to finally move up in the division.
can an insider copy and paste stuff on here? or is it against the law even if you give them credit
Top notch writing, if but a bit less perfect spelling.>>
I’m glad you said that, Tony, because it gives me a chane to say that sometimes I do wonder if I write too much. When we post, our e mail addresses go through, so I assume Pete and Dannie know where to reach us.
This site has given me a real opportunity to concentrate on what the hell I’m thinking about, which I find helpful, and gather info. Plus, its pretty cool knowing that all of us root for the same team, even though our ideas and views might be different. So I just keep penning away as the spirit moves me, until further notified, for which no offense would be taken.
On the subject of my spelling. Can we just say that I probably have a better defense for that than Roger Clemens appears to have tonight?
<<can an insider copy and paste stuff on here? or is it against the law even if you give them credit>>
looks like you asked a bunch of outsiders. heck if I know.
Free Cole Lineup: Rollins 6, Victorino 8, Polanco 5, Utley 4, Werth 9, Sweeney 3, Ibanez 7, Ruiz 2, Hamels 1
Matt Gelb with the free Cole creativity. Once again, please see where you bat so we don’t go out of order. A fascinating decision to run the lefty Utley between 2 righties against the lefty, and seperate the only 2 lefties between 2 righties again with Ibanez 3 spots lower.
Seems we’re running more lately, no? Might continue tonight. 68 of 87 have stolen successfully off Sanchez, 3rd highest pct. against active lefties. Key is whether number has come down and he’s better at it.
career marks off him.
good Shane 4 for 12
Chase 3 for 9
Plac 3 for 6
not Werth 0-9
Jimmy 1-12
mlb.com
“can an insider copy and paste stuff on here? or is it against the law even if you give them credit”
Just to be on the safe side, I wouldn’t copy and paste (copy right infringement?). But you can however, give us a summary of the article. There is nothing wrong with that.
The first inning in each game of this series has been ugly.
At least stop the bleeding. geez.
first pitch swinging.
i remember a time when Halladay went through this too
i remember a time when Halladay went through this to>>
yeah, because they finally realized he is always around the plate, I guess. And then he adjusted, and pitched differently early, and kept on winning. And despite the first pitch adjustment, he still only has 22 walks.
Well, that hurt. You can’t expect production all the time, but we’d have turned the order at a minimum if Chooch had gotten on.
Let’s at least test Sanchez with a big spot at bat before we concede anything, and in the meantime, if Cole is settled down, you just write the first off as one of those nights. At least I do.
good trivia question. Mel Ott comes to mind. Small fella. 5’8.
While we’re being no hit again for the 100th time this year, that kid Travis Wood that matched donuts against Doc with a no no until late goes for Cincy again tonight. He’s pitched well this year indicating that wasn’t a fluke.
what was the trivia question for today, i missed it
People probably wonder what Sweeney was saying to DB after that homerun to Tasker-Morris last night.
I’m more curious if RyHo walked up to him and said, “Nice bunt, kiddo.”
1st Giant to 500 homeruns. No qualifier between NY and SF. geez. 5-0.
Tough inning because the bottom of the order is nw left to try to test Sanchez for the first time in the 5th. Don’t want to let it happen too late for the first time. Wonder if Charlie would pinch hit for Cole, although he bast early (2nd). Might depend on this inning.
When you think about it, the NY-SF Giants have 4 guys minimum with 500 or more dingers. I don’t know how many have 500 plus now, maybe as many as 20? But between the Willies, Ott, and Barry, thats quite a percentage. Bill terry was the last NL player to hit .400, in 1930, but I suspect if he had a lot of homers, I’d remember it, and besides that was back when Ruth was so dominant, so it couldn’t have been him. has to be Ott.
The Phillies could have interest in Brad Hawpe when he clears release waivers, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). A club official told Rosenthal that the Phillies will be a “maybe” on Monday or Tuesday once he can sign with any team.>>
does that make sense?
a break, all we need is a break…
I really see no way we win this game. But that’s what baseball is all about. The unexpected. I’m still waiting to test Sanchez. That’d be a start. Brian Wilson, unfortunately, is not to be confused with Jonathan Broxton.
Meanwhile, it looks like another night off for Lidge. His last outing was Sunday. I wonder how the layoff will affect him.
One good thing about the weekend, I assume Zambrano will go against the Braves. Seems to be nicely focussed since coming back, and as its his 3rd or 4th start, maybe getting stronger. Course the Braves have a way of defyin that sort of thing, but there’s hope.
that was a dumb way to end an innning.
miracle time.
meen we had few chances against Sanchez and his breaking ball tonight.
it’s a smart move by BB, but it might work out as a break for us.
at least he doesnt get the CG
ON THIS DATE Aug. 19 in 1969, the Chicago Cubs, after a win over the
Braves, were sitting pretty for their first championship of any kind since 1945, 8 games ahead of the pack in the NL East. Much to Chicagoans’ anguish, Leo Durocher’s Cubs then slumped badly, going 15-25 the rest of the way, and finished the season 8 games behind Gil Hodges’ ”Miracle” Mets, who, from this date, went on a 33-11 rampage and ultimate WS glory.
A few months back, maybe even pre season, there was a guy Dave Cameron from FanGraphs that wrote something that really seemed ridiculous. Can’t remember what. I bet b.ski knows of what i speak. Something about the Phils.
Anyway, not he’s analyzing the best free agent signings of the past off season. You have to go deep into the reader responses before Placido is even mentioned.
You can sit there and paint watever picture you want with these modern day statistics, but it really can come down to overkill, too.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-signings-that-worked/
Or it can come down to prefacing an author as former fool, and then
questioning evaluations that don’t adhere to personal sentiment or fan interest as being statistically-overbaked.
Who on his list has Polanco outperformed? At this point in Placido’s career, he’s a chubby contact hitter, pretty good 2-slot man with
fielding range that narrows with each pancake. A good, safe, low-maintenance signing by Phils, but not a great one.
Interesting read. Thanks for passing it on.
jjg: can you name the last Phillie infield signing that produced like Polanco?
PP 2010 – 396 PA, .318 BA, 126 hits, 60 R, .351 OBP, 39RBI
.984 fielding % at 3B, 4 errors.
I was anticipating Polanco at least being mentioned earlier than deep into the reader comments. I would not say the years of Kelly Johnson, Colby Lewis, or
Alex Gonzales are night and day superior to what Polanco has done here. Maybe he doesn’t belong in the top 5, but I think he’s had a fabulous year.
Elsewhere, the Padres are now over on Vegas season win totals. Honestly, if I’m a Padre player, and I see that, I have to fight complacency. That is a helluvan achievement come 8/20. Doesn’t win you anything, but still a great accomplishment. On the other side, the Pirates now need to win out to avoid their 18th consecutive losing year. That’s 41 straight. I didn’t check their schedule to see the liklihood.
Democrats-Republicans, Israeli-Arabs, Eagles-Cowjerks, and Michael Kay–Cole Hamels.
case in point……
”(Won-loss record is) how pitchers are judged. You can get fancy with ERA, but…” –Michael Kay
“I haven’t really followed the wins and losses,” the lefthander said. “I try to blank that out. It’s one of those statistics that is starting to fade away for a starter in this day and age. I don’t think it really defines what they’re doing.”-
Cole Hamels
jjg: can you name the last Phillie infield signing that produced like Polanco?
<<
I can. After they drafted Ryne Sandberg, they signed him. I’m sure he did all that stuff several times. For the Cubs.
The Reds got Selig’s permission to honor the 25th anniversary of Pete beating Cobb’s record allowing Pete on the field. That’s pretty cool.
http://www.lancastereaglegazette.com/article/20100820/SPORTS/8200324/1006/SPORTS/Cincinnati-Reds-allowed-to-honor-Rose
Irony: Pete Rose, after being banned from baseball for gambling, can’t celebrate his record breaking on the actual anniversary because of prior commitments – to a casino.
Don’t have to go back to Sandberg. Joe Morgan ’83 and Mariano Duncan ’92 pick-ups were on par, as instrumental to winning (Duncan in ’93) as Polanco has been this season.
jkay, The history and comparitive quality of Phillies’ infield signings is extraneous. The subject matter was Cameron’s article. Did you read it? That he didn’t make the list isn’t changed by your calling the other non-winning Phillies infield contestants of past years uglier.
I repeat, it was a good signing. If you love Polly, give him a cracker.
jjg: i never had any issue with the article, which I did read, or the author, like you implied that KB did.
At this point in Placido’s career, he’s a chubby contact hitter, pretty good 2-slot man with
fielding range that narrows with each pancake. A good, safe, low-maintenance signing by Phils, but not a great one.
I have a problem with the dismissive tone towards Polanco like what he’s doing is nothing special. take away Doc and he’s been the Phils most consistent performer. MVP imo. considering all the junk we have imported to the infield in these last era, i’m much more appreciative. hence the question.
Rabbit ears for multi-millionaire athletes and bloggers too. How’d ya land that job?
Good luck working out your problem.
I read at least a few things (just can’t remember exactly when, where, or by whom) about the Polanco signing during the off season and spring training, most of which all said basically the same thing.
The prevailing opinion was that Polanco is a very good player but that 1) moving him back to 3rd could be problematic, and 2) signing a player his age to a 3-year contract is risky.
I read Cameron’s article and I’d have to guess that Polanco having a 3-year contract is what kept him off the list (I think it was mlbtraderumors who just had an article questioning all the multi-year deals RAJ has been giving out during his tenure), as, with the exception of Colby Lewis, every other player is on a 1-year deal.
What that has to do with determining who made the list I don’t know (unless the specter of Raul Ibanez and the up and down production we are getting from him during his 3-year deal has some sort of impact). It must, though, because, if not for that, Polanco definitely deserves to be mentioned.
How about this:
Phillies prospect arrested in cocaine bust
Philadelphia Daily News
Tyson Gillies, one of three prospects acquired from the Phillies in the Cliff Lee trade last offseason, was arrested in Florida and charged with cocaine possession, according to the Pinellas County Sheriff Department. Bond was posted and he was released.
This story will be updated as more details are confirmed.
–Paul Hagen